It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957]

Yeah I spent 9700 on gear july 1 to oct 23.

I paid 3700 back.

I could use a good two months  and drop the remaining 6k to under 2k by 2021.

[1714692799]

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[1714692799]

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[1714692799]

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[stompix]

You are correct, but 72% is only from within the last 104 blocks if blocks average time has been like this from the first block then we would have a difficulty drop of 100-72, but we only started going this slow recently...

Oh, I wasn't saying like 13% for this epoch, it's going to end in 3 days so there is not much room to drop even further but for what's coming next, another slight drop, maybe 2-3 or even more?  As I screwed up with my predictions so bad right now I'm feeling uneasy advancing any number on this subject. I was thinking that it's the end of the month also, maybe a few of those soon to be unprofitable miners that right now mine with cheap energy still have their power contract till the end of October so there is more to be plugged out in the next days. And yeah, blocks are slightly up, 117 in the last 24 hours.

I am not alone, most miners didn't have a good year, 2020 has been rough on us, don't envy us for having a good month or two.

I don't and I can't envy somebody who works hard and has ups and downs, I know how unpredictable and risky this business is, that's why I never tried to go mining again ever, not that it would be possible anyhow with our prices around here. But exactly because there the relations between everyone using or supporting bitcoin is why I said that fees are outrageous right now, a price increase that always results in higher volume in transactions, combined with a loss of capacity of 13% overall is hurting bitcoin usage, and from this, we have a domino effect that goes to price and then back to your income. That's why I was saying, grab those huge fees already, mine more blocks and get more rewards so we as users could spend again with at least 10sat/b, let's all be happy . Anyhow, the weekend is coming, there will be a difficulty retarget probably on Monday so things might get better.

[philipma1957]

at the moment viabtc is paying 121% per block guaranteed daily payments if you mine around 1.2 ph

They pay as low as 96.25% per block.

As a miner that is a huge swing for me. along with price up near 13,500.

[mikeywith]

Oh, I wasn't saying like 13% for this epoch, it's going to end in 3 days so there is not much room to drop even further but for what's coming next, another slight drop, maybe 2-3 or even more?

It's almost impossible to predict the coming epoch because:

1- We don't know if all hydropower gears already went offline.
2- Current price is pretty good and with 13% many miners will be profitable again.

I am leaning towards a slight increase rather than a drop because I think most if not all gears which run on hydropower in china are already offline, but let's wait and see.

I am not alone, most miners didn't have a good year, 2020 has been rough on us, don't envy us for having a good month or two.

I don't and I can't envy somebody who works hard and has ups and downs...

Ya, that was a joke actually.

That's why I was saying, grab those huge fees already, mine more blocks and get more rewards so we as users could spend again with at least 10sat/b, let's all be happy . Anyhow, the weekend is coming, there will be a difficulty retarget probably on Monday so things might get better.

Next week will be good or at least much better for fees (from the users' perspective), so make sure you consolidate your inputs then.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   654818  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   85.1691%  (1635 / 1919.71 expected, 284.71 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   19298087186262.61
Current Difficulty:   19997335994446.11
Next Difficulty:   between 17057082561709 and 17147130332651
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.7032% and -14.2529%
Previous Retarget:   October 17, 2020 at 11:34 AM  (+3.6234%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 7:00 PM  (in 3d 0h 28m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 9:05 PM  (in 3d 2h 33m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 8h 25m 10s and 16d 10h 30m 33s

Pushing 15%  we may have a 17 day jump if this continues closer to 18%

prices are 13,600+.

[minefarmbuy]

Will be interesting to see what comes back online once relocation from hydro season powers back up.

[stompix]

Oh, I wasn't saying like 13% for this epoch, <>And yeah, blocks are slightly up, 117 in the last 24 hours.

As usual, when I say things are going to happen there is nothing happening, when I say no, this is not possible, the retarget is just around the corner, the block time is going down again, of course, things go the other way around. Any hope of finally nailing a prediction is fading away.

Next Difficulty Change:   between -15.6361% and -15.3351%
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 6:59 AM  (in 2d 10h 42m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 8:25 AM  (in 2d 12h 8m 32s)

From this, we should speculate that at least 15% of the previous hash rate, if not more as probably there is still new gear being plugging in and offsetting this drop, was located in an area where there is no more cheap energy for them or at least they are moving like shepherds to their winter camp. But if we consider that miners in China make up at least 50-60% of the global hashrate it also means that more than 3/4 of them are either not affected or they are not using the rainy season and taking advantage of this, thus invalidating another theory about the percentages by regions where Sichuan was quoted to dominate. Anyhow!

Blocks 24h: 97
Block 654894 2020-10-31 17:07
Block 654895 2020-10-31 18:58

[philipma1957]

Well we are now creeping towards 16%.

Almost 17 day jump may happen if we trend like we just did.

[mikeywith]

We are heading back to early Aug difficulty of 16.8T, this is HUGE.

Next Difficulty:   between 16868708792081 and 16926182940736
Next Difficulty Change:   between -15.6452% and -15.3578%

But if we consider that miners in China make up at least 50-60% of the global hashrate it also means that more than 3/4 of them are either not affected or they are not using the rainy season and taking advantage of this, thus invalidating another theory about the percentages by regions where Sichuan was quoted to dominate. Anyhow!

That's a good point but really hard to prove, we don't know if actually, only 15% of the hashrate is was gone or it was 30% gone and 15% came from the new gears, also we don't know if all hydro gears went offline, or just half of them? from what I heard recently, there are a few places that still have good enough water levels that should be good for a week or two from now, I have no estimate on those, but I know they do exist, so all in all, not every hydro gear has gone offline just yet.

[philipma1957]

I hope more hydro is still on line if so we could get a small drop next jump of 2-4%.

We are doing better then I had hoped for. I would like a to get 2 or 3 weeks of this.

[mikeywith]

More hydro is still on that's for sure, we just don't know how much of them are there, but it's safe to assume that the majority have left already, however, with prices above $13,500 and a drop of 15% will be more than good for many miners who are no unprofitable, also many auto-switching miners will move from other coins to BTC when the adjustment happens that's guaranteed.

I will be more than happy to see an increase of not more than 3% (assuming price will stay in the range), I won't mind another huge drop but it's really asking for too much, more like wishful thinking.

With that being said, if the lockdown in Xinjiang remains, we could actually see another drop because many efficient gears need to be moved from Sichuan (Hydro area) to Xinjiang, the majority of the S9s will be sent to warehouses and palletized, but many other efficient gears will go back to other regions, Xinjiang has almost half the hashrate of China, so a large percentage of the efficient gears will be going there, and of course, with the Corona lockdown they have now, the transportation process could be slowed down allowing for another drop, so let's follow Xinjiang lockdown news.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   655111  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   84.2067%  (1928 / 2289.60 expected, 361.6 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   19298087186262.61
Current Difficulty:   19997335994446.11
Next Difficulty:   between 16860264393272 and 16865305556854
Next Difficulty Change:   between -15.6874% and -15.6622%
Previous Retarget:   October 17, 2020 at 11:34 AM  (+3.6234%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 1:28 AM  (in 0d 17h 17m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 1:36 AM  (in 0d 17h 25m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 14h 53m 52s and 16d 15h 1m 4s

Drop off is still over 15%

Price has dropped a bit to 13,330

USA election will be ending in a day.

It should be interesting to see

A) Who wins
B) If there is a fight over the results.
C) How that effects BTC price.

We had a strong downward trend back in October November December 2018
dropping from 7.45 on oct 4. to  5.1 on dec 18 2018
it took until may 30  2019 to get back to a diff of 7.45

To me it does not feel like this will repeat but who knows.

I'm not really sure if this is anyone's cup of tea or not....kda miner..likely Siacoin blake2b-Sia (Siacoin) miner as well..in that it is the same speed 5.3TH as the hidden miners from this last spring that took over Siacoin network and pumped it 1/3 in a day, but now went away...likely to KDA coin. anyway....the prices they want, etc, etc is insane!

but anyway, something not Bitmain

https://www.akminer.com/all-products/the-most-profitable-asic-miner-ibelink-bm-k1-5-3t-800w-for-kad-coin-mining

Anyway, again, POW miners at whatever 'dumb' price are few and far between...so posting it here. delete it if you consider it off-topic..it also looks to me to be 'quite' the hoard of chips on board, big ass beast, man the heat! completely unrealistic at that price and with the USA tarrif and import fees of 26.7% plus shipping this very, large brick from China! anyway, just another POW miner that makes little sense. FYI.

Brad

https://www.akminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/IMG_366020201024-150838.jpg

deleted  as it is not btc

back to btc we are close to -16% a huge drop off price is over 13500.

if prices hold btc miners will do well the next 2 weeks.  btw if you mined at the right pools the last ten days you did well.  I have been paid 120% at viabtc the last 10 days.  So it comes to about 24 good days of mining btc.

[mikeywith]

We just had an amazing 16% drop in difficulty and below is the current situation.

Latest Block:   655246  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   89.5666%  (47 / 52.47 expected, 5.47 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   19997335994446.11
Current Difficulty:   16787779609932.66
Next Difficulty:   between 15334806180539 and 16714795958326
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.6549% and -0.4347%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 10:17 AM  (-16.0499%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 17, 2020 at 12:06 PM  (in 13d 17h 3m 28s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 19, 2020 at 1:26 AM  (in 15d 6h 23m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 48m 13s and 15d 15h 8m 23s

Too early to reach any sort of conclusions but judging by the fact that for about 50 blocks or 8 hours and we are at 90% pase tells me that lock-down on Xinjiang is serious and there are indeed a lot of miners that are waiting to enter, we don't know if they will eventually find their way in before the lockdown is over, or whether they will be stuck for as long as the lockdown is active.

We shall find out in a few days, a drop or no change at all will be welcomed while the price remains above $13,000.

[Philipma1957cellphone]

I hope you are still mining.  It would be nice to get two numbers under 10%.
And coins to go over 15k.

[Last of the V8s]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/how-do-seasonal-fluctuations-really-affect-bitcoin-mining

Fall 2020

So, this brings us to today. Mining centralization is a common criticism of Bitcoin and the narrative that many Chinese ASICs shut off seasonally appears to be valid for the fall of 2020. Where else would folks have about 48 Eh/s (30 percent of the network, as noted above) sitting idly by waiting for abundant and affordable energy? This works out to be about 3 million Antminer S9 ASIC mining units.

So, where does this dropoff rank among previous difficulty drops in the October and November time frames?

[DaveF]

I know it has been discussed a bit but how much of this is due to the lack of low power low noise miners.
It's getting colder here in the northern hemisphere and years ago I would fire up a couple of S1 miners for space heating around the condo.
Then it was a pair of S3 units, then an R4.

Now I either have to play around with an S9 and pull boards or???

So while other parts of the world were shutting off miners due to hydro issues or it becoming their summer people were spinning up some things to take their place.

Now I have a just about dead silent 3 GPU rig in the corner mining whatever. Putting about 900W of heat into my place on the colder days.
Instead of a few TH of BTC mining.

-Dave

[Philipma1957cellphone]

The s17pro set to 38th 985 watts on vnish aftermarket is good for heating. Pretty quiet but must have 240volt power.

[DaveF]

I don't have 220 any place where I would need a space heater and many people in the US & Canada do not either.

And the S17 units, at least for me, have not been the most reliable miners out there.

Not saying that it's not possible, just saying it's not as simple as it used to be.

-Dave

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Then use Avalon 841's dialed down to what I call TV room mode. Use low power setting and in More Options use --api-listen --avalon8-fan 10-30 to throttle down the fan. Once the miner(s) do their 3 minute warm up they settle down to a nice quiet 8-9THs pulling around 850w which is very 110v friendly.

[philipma1957]

Dave you could use an s17 with a transformer

set to  980-1000 watts it would be okay with 120 volts.