🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[nutildah]

This year I'm doing something a bit different and waiting until minutes before kickoff to place a bet.

Hearing some sad news about Andy Reid's son who is also one of their defensive coaches, involved in a drunk driving accident yesterday? Don't know if its true or not.

My guess was that a bunch of money is gonna come in on KC @ -3 right before kickoff, but who knows now given this new intangible.

Most of the "pros" I've listened to on podcasts and youtube think KC will cover; however, they also don't like the idea of betting against Brady -- neither do I.

For fun I'm putting in a small wager but I won't know for sure until the numbers start to move next to the bet. I'm gonna chase whatever direction its moving in.

For prop bets I liked total penalties under 10 and KC to score passing TD over 18.5 yards. Unfortunately I got to them a bit late and they're too lopsided for me to bet on now.

[morvillz7z]

I was trying to make myself a list with both teams good and bad sides, this is what i came up with, it's not super detailed/complete by any means.

pros/cons

Bucs:
-top 5 offense/defense
-playing at home
-Brady's experience
-top pass rushers


-Bucs corners/secondary
-turnovers
-Brady's immobility
-suspect run game with Fournette and Ronald Jones


KC:
-Andy Reid's creativity as a coach
-Mahomes
-special teams
-best TE in the game for the past couple of years
-"Cheetah" and his 269 yards and 3 TD vs. the Bucs in the regular season
-Steve Spagnuolo defenses which have a winning record vs. Brady (3-2)


-missing two starting linemen (this is huge)
-Mahomes has 8-1 record when trailing by 2 scores (in case Bucs and Brady start hot as they did two weeks ago) lol

I say Chiefs repeat!

As for betting, i have nothing yet but i like Mahomes 20+ rush yards with Hill Anytime score and Chiefs to win for around 5.xx

Anyway, have fun tomorrow. T-1 day.

[DireWolfM14]

Happy Super Bowl Sunday every one!

This bound to be a good game, the spreads are so tight, and money lines are low.  I prefer a close back and fourth game, it keeps things interesting.  But: if it's close, and Tom Brady's team is the under dog...  There's only one way to go.

Anyway, I picked the Bucks +6.5, and added a few props to boost the odds:



Good luck with your bets today, have fun, and enjoy those Costco hotdogs.  But this time, please don't eat all the guacamole before I'm able get some.

[suchmoon]

guacamole

Ew. You can have all of it.

Good luck to both teams.

j/k

Go Tampa Brady.

[tyKiwanuka]

First of all I think this game will not be decided by both offenses, but by the defenses and which defense can make crucial stops and/or get turnovers. Furthermore I think this will be a super close one, I mean really close, where TB will lead for most of the game and also win the SB in the end. @morvillz7z posted a nice list of pros&cons there and I will add a few thoughts.

-Andy Reid's creativity as a coach

KC surely has the upper hand in the coaching department - I like Arians and he is a good coach, but Reid is still a level above. But the Bucs can compensate this gap a bit with the Goat himself, who has tons of experience in such games and is a little on-field coach and a better one than Mahomes.

-

It's really hard to beat a top team twice in a season, even more so twice in away games. And this, and the home field advantage in general, is something that is missing for me, when I look at the odds. If you have a blank sheet of paper and start compiling the odds, you first add the home advantage and this makes the odds go from 50/50 to 60/40 or ~1.7 vs 2.5. I don't see how these odds are switched when you add all the other factors in afterwards.

I still remember Michael Strahan saying in 2008: "We need to get to Tom Brady or we will not win this Superbowl". Who do I trust more to make the opposing QB feel uncomfortable ? Bucs.
Season sacks: TB 48, Chiefs 32
Sacks allowed: TB 22, Chiefs 24
Of course Mahomes can defend himself way better against the pass rush with his mobility than Brady can do, but still.

As I said before, the Chiefs weren't super convincing all season long, winning a lot of close games (which is some quality of its own tbf), showing different faces and having their ups and downs during the 60 minutes of a game - they won't get away with this today. TB has the better scalps recently winning @NO and @GB, so I dare to say that they are the hotter team for me right now, albeit them having their problems in this season as well, but not so much during a single game.

-

All in all the odds for TB represent some value for me and I will play ML on the Bucs. No big stakes, because no big value and this will be close till the end (hopefully !). I am pretty sure you will get both teams >3 inplay, so prematch ML should only be a smaller bet for some adrenaline right from the start

I also like the under, but this is super meh to bet on in a SB.

[Hueristic]

Where can I prop bet a Hill penalty will call back a huge Kelce play?

[DireWolfM14]

Of course Mahomes can defend himself way better against the pass rush with his mobility than Brady can do, but still.

I think it's a common misconception that mobile quarterbacks are harder to sack, but statistically speaking that hasn't always been true.  It really has more to do with the OLine than the QB's mobility.  It's hard to compare Mahomes' career with that of Brady's just because of the difference in sample size, so in the graphic below I included  a couple of the more successful "mobile" QBs in the league today:  One with a lot of experience; Russell Wilson, and another young QB who is arguably the most mobile in the league today; Deshaun Watson.



Obviously Brady has benefited by playing with OLines that are among the best in the league during his entire career, and so far Patrick Mahomes has as well.  As seen above Mahomes' mobility hasn't had a very significant effect on the sack stats.  The small sample size can certainly compensate for the difference between his and Brady's career numbers.  Mahomes hasn't had to struggle with a porous line the way Brady has had to during some of his seasons.

Mobile QBs are a lot of fun to watch, they're great for the highlight reals, they can make lemon-aid out of lemons the way Wilson has done for years.  But the statistics don't corroborate the notion that they are less-likely to get sacked.

Of course I haven't mentioned the "Pocket Acuity" of Brady.  It's almost like the guy has eyes on the back of his helmet.  The reality is that there is a statistically consistent amount of time that a pocket passer has.  There are specific places to which a pocket passer can slide to buy himself a little more time.  It all comes down to coaching and knowing your team-mates.  No one has mastered the art as well as Tom Brady.

[tyKiwanuka]

~snip~

Yes, correct and nice post/thoughts. Probably should have written that Mahomes has more options when the pressure comes or the pocket collapses. Brady will just throw the ball away, while Mahomes can still make something happen with his feet before having to throw the ball away/finding an open receiver/getting sacked eventually.

As you mentioned Brady just has a great pocket awareness and won't hesitate too long to give up the play, when nobody is open, thus his very good stats in Sacks/PA. He just won't let him get sacked too often, while others hold onto the ball a bit longer and take the sack every now and then instead. Now Mahomes imo is kind of a hybrid compared to Brady and Wilson/Watson, i.e. he is also not afraid to just throw the ball away, but he has the option of leaving the pocket, if he sees some space. In recent times I felt that he threw the ball away more frequently, which is probably something Reid told him, since it's better for his durability longterm.

Sacks often don't tell the whole story, like with so many stats Sacks are nice, but getting frequent QB pressure is probably more important. The Giants in 2008/2012 only had 3 sacks each, but they were near Brady "all" game and it stressed him and helped the secondary.
You also have this approach used with mobile QB's that you don't want to collapse the pocket and go for the sack no matter what, but to just get enough pressure on the QB with leaving the pocket intact. That way you contain him in the pocket and make it harder for him to beat you with his feet. Those big QB runs often happen when the pocket collapses and the secondary is down the field with all the WR's.

[DireWolfM14]

guacamole

Ew. You can have all of it.

Okay, it's official:  You're invited to all my Post-Covid super bowl parties.  For life.  Unless, you're one of those guys that brings micro-brews to look cool, then proceeds to only drink my coors light.  Then you're uninvited.

BTW, it's always a multi-ethnic super bowl buffet around here; Polish sausages, guacamole, humus, falafel, mom's home-made pita bread, and sushi.  No lack of options for the picky.

Where can I prop bet a Hill penalty will call back a huge Kelce play?

Lol, I doubt the odds would be worth the wager.  

[suchmoon]

Brady to Gronk... this is like a friggin' time machine.

Okay, it's official:  You're invited to all my Post-Covid super bowl parties.  For life.  Unless, you're one of those guys that brings micro-brews to look cool, then proceeds to only drink my coors light.  Then you're uninvited.

I think we've already established that our preferred drinks are dramatically different LOL.

[DireWolfM14]

Brady to Gronk... this is like a friggin' time machine.

Man, this is starting look like a rout in the making.  Mahomes is 2/9 for 9 yards so far.  KC may not score the 2.5 TDs I need from them to win my bet. 

I think we've already established that our preferred drinks are dramatically different LOL.

Sweet.

[bbc.reporter]

@DireWolfM14. Be careful of that invitation. After this bull market many of us might make much money and fly to wherever you are and each bringing our own microbrews hehehe.

@suchmoon. What drinks are those?

[South Park]

What a stop by KC on the one yard line! But the KC offence cannot move the ball at all, the OL cannot protect Mahomes.

Edit: TB has almost a FG assured with that awful punt.

Edit: KC is killing itself with flags and it went from TB getting 0 points, then 3 points and now 7 points thanks to the mistakes of KC.

[bbc.reporter]

Prediction. Travis Kelce to be this Superbowl's MVP if the Chiefs gets the victory!

Also, how would the drunk driving incident of Britt Reid affect the team's play as a whole? The skeptical me thinks this is a mafia type of set up and game fixing hehehehe.

[suchmoon]

Halftime. If anyone wants good in-game odds on KC - now's your time 

@suchmoon. What drinks are those?

I prefer grape drinks, DireWolfM14 seems to like grain alcohol

Edit: KC is killing itself with flags and it went from TB getting 0 points, then 3 points and now 7 points thanks to the mistakes of KC.

They seem to be seriously rattled. I mean why would you go to Brady after the play... there is nothing to "talk" about.

[tyKiwanuka]

The Chiefs are really beating themselves with all those penalties. They had all the momentum in the world after that goal line stand, which was a beauty to watch, and gave it all away with some dumb play/penalties. Otoh they are only down two scores and get the ball first in HT2, so there is hope for them, if they can somehow regroup during halftime.

[DireWolfM14]

Halftime. If anyone wants good in-game odds on KC - now's your time 

Lol, I've made stupider moves that paid off.   

@suchmoon. What drinks are those?

I prefer grape drinks, DireWolfM14 seems to like grain alcohol

I blame my ethnicity.  Palestinians aren't known for drinking much, but when we do we prefer weak beer and stinky Scotch.

Edit: KC is killing itself with flags and it went from TB getting 0 points, then 3 points and now 7 points thanks to the mistakes of KC.

They seem to be seriously rattled. I mean why would you go to Brady after the play... there is nothing to "talk" about.

That's the kind of stupid shit that they need to avoid.  I wish I could read lips, I'm wondering what the fuck Matthew had to say to Brady after that score.  You know Andy Reed is reaming him a new asshole right about now.

[bbc.reporter]

Halftime. If anyone wants good in-game odds on KC - now's your time 

It appears that the best propbets were all the Tom Brady overs. I remember the over rushing yards for Tom Brady was 0.5 in sportsbet.io. This might win also if the Chiefs do not make an adjustment.

[suchmoon]

Also over 54.5 points

I'd say this is the safest bet.

Well, not so safe anymore, what with Chiefs refusing to participate.

It appears that the best propbets were all the Tom Brady overs. I remember the over rushing yards for Tom Brady was 0.5 in sportsbet.io. This might win also if the Chiefs do not make an adjustment.

Yeah... never bet against the goat.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears that this is game over after the sack and the interception. I am certain that the Chiefs are presently shattered psychologically and emotionally already.

Congratulations to Tampa Bay bettors out there.