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[Timelord2067]

We're definitely in uncharted territory when it comes to dominance by a handful of teams.  The last two years (and the second half of the third year past), my strategy leaned heavily towards placing bets on the team that was ahead on the ladder - even when the two teams were the same score on the ladder, or, their opponent was more favoured.

The first half of the third year back, I bet on the Dolphins for the first half of the year.  (and last year anyone going up against the Eels, Tigers or Titans who should all be relegated).

As soon as I was able, I placed bets on the first round choosing all eight who finished last year ahead.  I'm wondering if this year I choose four, or maybe just five games per round?

There are a few players out of the first round due to careless tackles etc., charges: https://www.nrl.com/news/2025/01/01/nrl-judiciary-report-asofa-solomona-to-miss-round-1/

Two players (from the same team) got into a punch up on their first night in Vegas.  I didn't realise there is gong to be four games played:

https://www.nrl.com/rugby-league-in-las-vegas-2025/

• Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors
• Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sutherland-Sharks
• Wigan Warriors vs Warrington Wolves
• Australian Jillaroos vs England Women's Team

I wouldn't mind seeing Wigan and Warrington play - the UK version of League looks crisper compared to the Australian version.

[aoluain]

Panthers v Sharks in the first round - jeez thats a tough one. I want to start my
theory with the Panthers but in the last two seasons the Panthers have lost their
opening matches and the Sharks is not an easy opponent.

Likewise for Storm who play the Eels, not "normally" an easy match up but given
that the Eels had an abysmal season last year do they bounce back this year or
continue their crap run?

[Timelord2067]

The Eels got all the way to the Grand Final a couple a years ago then fizzled.  Last year, they started out strong, but dimmed as the year wore on.  I think I'll stick with the Storm over the Eels and The Panthers in a narrow win over the Sharks.  (I think the Sharks will be a team to watch this year)

[aoluain]

Boom!

First win by the Panthers over the Sharks - 28-22 and they are up and running.

Storm v Eels up next on the 9th. The thing about Storm is that they have been very consistent
over the last few seasons but the Eels had a terrible one least year and not a great one in 2023 either.

Maybe another team to watch and back are the Sharks who have also had good seasons for the last
3 seasons - they have been fairly consistent ^{when not playing Panthers!}

[Timelord2067]

The two NRL games were a mixed bag - I listened to the Canberra Vs Auckland games. It was very much a one sided match, so I foresee in some aspects, nothing has changed in the NRL (interestingly there were calls to relegate the usual suspects and inject the national game with new/different teams.

Aust Vs England was a "cricket score" 90+ - 04

Wigan won in what was described as a good, clean game.


The Dolphins game has been moved from Lang Park to Sydney due to the very slow moving TC Alfred.

[aoluain]

Whats with the English league game?
is it a stronger league than the Australian one?
Do you follow and wager on it too?


Six Nations is back on tomorrow with a crunch game between Ireland and France
and as many are calling it the deciding game for the championship!
Ireland favourites @ 1.72 v 2.10

Followed by Scotland v Wales - not betting on this but really interested to see
how Wales perform this week with the new coach. They put in a solid performance
against Ireland last time out.

Followed by England v Italy - hard to see an upset here.

[aoluain]

Very disappointing weekend for Ireland Rugby in last weekends Six Nations being
beaten comprehensively by France 27-42. Ok we were missing some key players
and a last minute withdrawal of winger James Lowe but IMO it was always
going to be a tough ask, France were by far the better team.

Scotland v Wales - great match, great Rugby played by both teams and Wales
come within a converted try of winning. 35-29.
The second half was a combination of good strong play by Wales and Scotland
going off the boil.

[Timelord2067]

Yeh very bad luck Ireland loosing to France. From what you're saying it was going to bed a tough ask being a key player down.

There were a couple of upsets in the Super Pacific Rugby. I think one of the teams got dropped late last year - the Rebels? In any case, both the Reds and Blues have had their work cut out for them.

I don't necessarily follow the English games, but I've Seen some match's on reply when I'm out and about (sometimes they're carefully edited highlights, so it would have been nice to see a live game for a change.

[Timelord2067]

This is the third time in as many days I've sat down to write up a post about this week-ends NRL matches and hopefully, I won't be called away again.

So,



Round two started off well with the Newcastle Knights beating the lackluster Redcliffe Dolphins 26 - 12 in Newcastle.  The post game commentators on the ABC Radio observed the Dolphins had a distinct lack of follow through in their game plays hinting not so much at a lack of preparedness, rather they are suffering without their coach who has gone to the Rabbitohs (which is where he started coaching some twenty years ago).

As you can see in last week's scores, the Rabbitohs narrowly won against the Dolphins.  Now with a second game under their belts, the Dolphins are going to have to dig deep to keep themselves in the mid-zone.



After last week's (Aust vs NZ) match up in Las Vegas between Canberra and Auckland, the Warriors regrouped and pounded the Manly Sea Eagles 36 - 16 in the early game which foreshadowed the very narrow win by Sydney City over the Penrith (a suburb of Sydney) 38 - 32.  At half time, the scores were locked at 18 - 18, but the Roosters managed to out play the Panthers.  (Trivia: The Panthers have won their first game under their coach annually, for something like the last 20 years).

This afternoon, the Dragons will try to chase down the Bunnies before the Sharks maul the Cowboys then in tonight's main attraction, Brisbane will try to pound Canberra (but it probably won't be as embarrassing a final score difference as last week's 50 - 14 win over the Roosters)

Melbourne will probably be grateful for the bye this week after their 56 - 18 obliteration of the Eels who face off against perennial Wooden-Spooners The Balmain Tigers tomorrow afternoon.

Last week-end, the Tigers (playing away) received a standing ovation at half time as they returned to the change rooms for a cup of tea.  The Tigers started off very strongly, but at full time vary narrowly lost to the Knights 8 - 10.  I expect Balmain will prevail over Parramatta.


Over the ditch, in Super Rugby Pacific, Crusaders ($1.02) Vs Western Force,  Chiefs ($1.26) Vs Blues, Reds ($1.34) Vs Waratahs

More internationally,  Six Nations:  Italy Vs Ireland is too close to call (I'll go with Ireland).  Wales Vs England ($1.24).  France ($1.04) Vs Scotland

[aoluain]

Yes its "SUPER SATURDAY" in the six nations and its anthems time now with Italy v Ireland
starting the day.

Its all to play for with 3 teams in the running for the Championship, France ^{most likely to win it,}
, Ireland ^{needing Scotland to beat France}, England ^{needing to beat Wales with tries and points}

Later its Wales v England - would love to see my Celtic Cousins put a really solid
2 halves and give England a real fright.

Final match France v Scotland - hard to see anything but a France win but obviously
would live to see the Scots do it.

I'm going to try an in play bet on Ireland as im watching.

[aoluain]

Back to the NRL > https://www.nrl.com/draw/?competition=111&round=3&season=2025

My last weeks bet on the Panthers was a loss - that was my first bet on them.
This coming round "3" they are playing Storm ^{one of the top sides}. Checking the odds
Storm are favourite @ 1.33 and nice odds on the Panthers @ 3.15. To continue my strategy of betting
on the Panthers theoretically I have to bet on them for tomorrows match, if they win in fantastic and
if they lose I just have to trust and hope that by the end of the season they will only have lost average
7 matches - or do I skip the matches where they play the top sides like Storm, Roosters, Cowboys and
the Sharks?

[Timelord2067]

I was gong to bet on the Panthers in the hope that they would redeem themselves, however, they are now at 11th on the ladder after their loss tonight against the Melbourne Storm who are sitting at the top of the ladder.

Tomorrow evening, the Warriors and Roosters square off.  I'm expecting it to be close, but the Roosters to prevail.

The Broncos will ride the Cowboys in what should be a double digit win for the Broncos.

[aoluain]

Damn it - Panthers beaten, bet lost, bad start, I'll go again next week when they
play the Rabbitohs in the first match.

My "back up team" as per some of my analytics earlier are the Sharks, they play
tomorrow against the Rabbitohs. I have them backed @ a poor enough 1.14

If the Rabbitohs win against the Sharks I might get better odds on the Panthers
for next week...they will need to win though!

[Timelord2067]

Damn it - Panthers beaten, bet lost, bad start, I'll go again next week when they
play the Rabbitohs in the first match.

My "back up team" as per some of my analytics earlier are the Sharks, they play
tomorrow against the Rabbitohs. I have them backed @ a poor enough 1.14

If the Rabbitohs win against the Sharks I might get better odds on the Panthers
for next week...they will need to win though!

NRL Season 2025

Screan grab courtesy https://www.nrl.com/



I think the Sharks are on the up and up - I was impressed with their start last year and it looks like they are building on last year's solid performance.  Not sure the Rabbitohs will make it to the top six, but they will probably finish just inside the top eight (who go on to the semis).  The Rabbitohs will probably finish 7^th - 10th place on the ladder. (currently 10^th)

The commentators have been singing the praises of the Balmain Tigers who won a tight game against the Dolphins playing at the Dolphin's home ground in Redcliffe.  The Dolphins fans began leaving around 12 minutes from the final whistle as the Tigers broke the tied game, then surged ahead to win 30 - 18 with their two late tries.

The late game saw the Titans blaze away from the hapless Knights who had out performed against the Dolphins last week.  Without their star coach, the Dolphins are floundering.

Today, the Eels should be bitten by the Bulldogs in the afternoon game,

(The Eels played a strong offensive game, while the Sharks played an even stronger defensive game. By half time, the Eels looked ready to call it quits while the sharks played on).

Then the last game of the round, I'm not sure who will win out of the Sea Eagles and the Canberra Raiders.  I'm leaning towards the Raiders.

*edit*

I don't know why I took such a stab in the dark.  The Sea Eagles effortlessly won 40 - 12


Screen grab courtesy https://super.rugby/superrugby/fixtures/



The Waratahs win over the Brumbies has been the only upset of round six.  The Crusaders continue their weary limp to the end of the campaign, their wins of old are but a distant memory.  Earlier, Moana put in a solid effort against the Chiefs 30 - 50.  This afternoon, the Force (who comes up with these irrelevant names?) should better Fiji with a one sided score.

*edit* #2

The Tiger's are forth on the ladder!

[aoluain]

Obviously its early days yet but it would be fantastic to see the Tigers in any other
position than at the very bottom of the ladder, even in the mid ladder would be something
by the end of the season.

Yea from my analysis the Sharks have had some really good seasons, I have
the Panthers again at 1.25 against the Rabbitohs and "when" they win I'll back the
Sharks against the Bulldogs _{i dont have enough in the wallet to do both!}

[Timelord2067]

Obviously its early days yet but it would be fantastic to see the Tigers in any other
position than at the very bottom of the ladder, even in the mid ladder would be something
by the end of the season.

Yea from my analysis the Sharks have had some really good seasons, I have
the Panthers again at 1.25 against the Rabbitohs and "when" they win I'll back the
Sharks against the Bulldogs _{i dont have enough in the wallet to do both!}

Yes, I've picked up $1.32 on Penrith

Souths Vs Penrith ($1.32)
Syd Roosters ($1.47) Vs Gold Coast
Dolphins v Brisbane ($1.20) - It's going to be a wet night in Brisbane for the game.

Interestingly, Queensland and Manly (Sydney) Captain Daly Cheery-Evans started at the Dolphins and has announced this week that he will be departing Many-Waringa at the end of this year sfter 15 seasons with the club.  Speculation if rife that he will go to Penrith who have already said they can't afford him.  I like to think he might head back to Redcliffe and stear them to a Grandfinal in a couple of years time.

2025 NRL Signings Tracker: Cherry-Evans to depart Sea Eagles; Dolphins sign Molo

https://www.nrl.com/news/2025/01/01/2025-nrl-signings-tracker-new-year-new-heroes/

Manly skipper Daly Cherry-Evans has confirmed 2025 will be his last season at the club after formally declining a contract extension.

The Sea Eagles offered the halfback a two-year deal after he publicly declared on Monday his intentions to either depart or retire at the end of the season.

Cherry-Evans has stuck to his initial plan and turned down the offer. He is yet to determine if he will hang up the boots or play on in 2026.

“I wanted to confirm I was leaving the club now, rather than making a call later in the season, so that we can get on with our goal of winning a premiership,” he said.

“I love this club and this group of players.

“I am fully committed to giving my absolute best over the coming months to make this season the best it can possibly be for our team, our club, and our fans.”

Samoa and State of Origin representative Francis Molo will return to Brisbane to join the Dolphins for the 2025 NRL season.

The Dolphins have picked up the remaining term of Molo’s contract after the 2021 Queensland front-rower was given a release by the Dragons.

The 30-year-old is expected to arrive at Dolphins training next week, with his deal confirmed until the end of the 2026 season.

[aoluain]

Well FFS the Panthers got beaten . . . again!

Rabbitohs 28 - 18 Panthers

I'm not panicking just yet, my theory is based that over the course of the season the
Panthers will have approximately 20 wins and approximately 7 losses, fingers crossed.

Same for the Sharks! - I'll have to get a bet on the Sharks for Saturday against the Bulldogs.


The business end of the European Champions Cup next weekend with the
Round of 16 taking place so time to tune back into that!

[Timelord2067]

28 nil at half time = there goes my five bucks. I was driving last night and heard from bout the fifteenth minute.  Painful to listen to.  The Panthers have now lost games 2,3 and 4.

Today on the radio, they were saying don't write the Bulldogs off.  (The Bulldogs are one of the teams cautiously saying they'd welcome Dally Cherry-Evans to their fold).

The Roosters and Titans are about to face-off - I expect the Roosters will prevail.  

Here in Brisbane where I just saw an ark being built in someone's back yard, it's been pelting down with rain all day.  The Broncos *should* win the game in a couple of hours.


https://super.rugby/superrugby/fixtures/

After half time, it's 50 - 12 Hurricanes over the Waratahs.

Then, the Brumbies take on the Highlanders

Tomorrow, the Crusaders should fend off Moana

Red should blow away the Force.

[aoluain]

"dont write the Bulldogs off" they were saying - well they were right about that for
todays match at least, the beat the Sharks 6-20. ^{I throw my hands in the air} The Sharks didnt
even score in the second half! another bet lost ^{it has to come good next round}


Union

In the URC its round 14 this weekend, I dont have any bets on yet but The Sharks
hose Leinster, Leinster are underdogs at 3.95, its a cracking price for the top
spot team but I'm wondering if the top players are held back ahead of the champions
cup match next week?

[Timelord2067]

The Bulldogs are sitting at first on the ladder with eight points after their fourth straight win of the season.  They are ahead of the Broncos, Storm, Titans and Knights on six points (i.e. three wins a piece)

Today, the Sea Eagles should beat the Eels with their Captain wanting to make himself look good for a prospective new team.  Given that it's been something of a boil-over season already, I'm going to tip the eighth placed Tigers to maul the Auckland Warriors.

2025 Super Rugby Pacific

Another boil over with the Crusaders being resoundly beaten by Moana 29 - 45  Then, the Reds narrowly beat the Force 28 - 24

In the sevens, it looks like Australia did all right in both the men's and Women's games.

https://www.svns.com/en/fixtures-and-results/hong-kong/matches (that website is very harsh on the eyes)

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/all-blacks-sevens-land-knockout-blow-as-boks-bow-out-of-hk-sevens/
https://www.rugbypass.com/sevens/fixtures-results/ (much easier on the eyes)