Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[OgNasty]

I watched Putin’s speech this morning and am surprised with the Wagner mutiny situation. I did not see that coming. I wonder if anyone did. It seems like this war has gone far better than expected for Ukraine. More recently though it appears that this situation may end peacefully for Russia with Wagner reportedly no longer moving towards Moscow, which may swing the war back in their favor.

[1714531969]

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[1714531969]

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[1714531969]

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[paid2]

I watched Putin’s speech this morning and am surprised with the Wagner mutiny situation. I did not see that coming. I wonder if anyone did. It seems like this war has gone far better than expected for Ukraine. More recently though it appears that this situation may end peacefully for Russia with Wagner reportedly no longer moving towards Moscow, which may swing the war back in their favor.

I find this predictable. Corruption and incompetence on the part of the Russian authorities are to their own detriment. 

They can't even manage their own militias, and their attempt to play the "modern Napoleon" role is ridiculous. We'll see what repercussions this has, as they're on all fronts: Ukraine, Georgia, or in Africa. Maybe they're wearing themselves out, or maybe they're just capable of succeeding in the face of underdeveloped, unarmed populations.

It's always the smallest dogs that make the most noise ; just as sick and weak animals are always the most aggressive ones.

[paxmao]

This situation is quite simple. There is a guy with enough troops to be a problem and the top Psychos of the RF army are jealous and thinking they may have to share part of the usual profits they make. They have tried to undercut Prigozhin over and over so the guy, who does not lack balls, did something about it. Since it is in everyone in the RF benefit to overlook all this and go back to fighting Ukraine, it was quite simple to reach a mafia deal.

 This reminds me so much of the Roman Republic and later of the Empire. This was like every 5 years - soldiers were loyal to their generals that rewarded them generously for it. Sila, Cayus Marius, Pompeyo, Julius Cesar,... all of them were in a similar situation and it must be said that it did not always ended in negotiations.

No Psy-ops, no trap (for what? there is no benefit to war on any of this) ... just plain old money and power - quite proper of a country run by kleptocrats like the RF.

[suchmoon]

Z-telegram rumor mill says that Putin's former bodyguard and current Tula governor Aleksey Dyumin will replace Shoigu (Prigozhin's enemy #1) as the new minister of defence. Also Gerasimov (Prigozhin's enemy #2) is allegedly on his way out, to be replaced by general "difficult decision" Surovikin (the one who gave up Kherson).

If that happens, it'd be a massive win for Prigozhin.

[tvbcof]

Z-telegram rumor mill says that Putin's former bodyguard and current Tula governor Aleksey Dyumin will replace Shoigu (Prigozhin's enemy #1) as the new minister of defence. Also Gerasimov (Prigozhin's enemy #2) is allegedly on his way out, to be replaced by general "difficult decision" Surovikin (the one who gave up Kherson).

If that happens, it'd be a massive win for Prigozhin.

Shoigu would be no great loss as far as I can see, and he'd probably rather be focused on his own rendition of Wager anyway.  You know; the ones that crossed the Oskol river in Kharkiv recently and cleared out the forest on the Russian side of the river.

I doubt that Gerasimov is going anywhere.  To much clout, and as far as I can see he is highly competent too.  Good personality for that job as well.

As for Prigozhin, I was joking about his likelihood of winning the presidential election (in Ukraine) a few months ago, but seeing how quickly he made all of you Ziocon Nazi sympathizers onto swooning fan-boys, maybe it's a real possibility!  He's got one of the primary prerequisites nailed:  'half-Jew'.

====

On Surovikin, b.open, here's some of why I say what I said (and further input is welcome.)  I'm not talking about or familiar with his earlier career, though it seems in a quick wikipedia-level skim that trouble has followed him all of his life and I could see 'armageddon' being a suitable nick-name for that reason.

 - His 'armageddon' and 'brutality' seem to me to be way over-played, and probably for psychological reasons.  He was brought in at a time when there was a very delinquent decision to have a real war, and when the absurdly gentle baby gloves came off.  The 'job description' changed to 'de-militarize' Ukraine including their military personnel.  'Brutality' is part-n-parcel to such a task.

 - Further specifications, for which 2020's Russia has earned my enduring respect, include 'spare Russian servicemen's lives' and 'be careful with all civilians'.  I suspect also 'slow-play' things as needed since a drawn out affair hurts NATO the most and introduces a higher risk of flaring out of hand.  This Surovikin accomplished with stunning competency including very sensible and safe fighting withdrawls and no sparing on defensive measures throughout the entire operational area and beyond.

 - The withdrawal from the North was reasonably impressive but left some room for improvement and civilians suffered (at the hands of the Nazis) because of them.  Kherson was picture-perfect and legendary IMHO.

 - The hard work, foresight, diligence, etc are paying dividends now even in light of the probably worst-case scenario that NATO is not folding and is doubling down in increased desperation.

I'm sure that Surovikin was not wholly responsible for all of the good decisions made over the course of the last year, but he was the guy who's ass was on the line, and especially for the time-period that really counted.

====

On the ridiculous Prigozon psy-op, I think it's funny, and it seemed be effective (only because the adversaries are operating at such a low-function level), but I think it is kind of beneath Russia to leverage these kinds of antics.  I have more respect for the no-nonsense approach.

[TwitchySeal]

So, seems that circus is over, Prigozhin ordered Wagner convoy to turn back and return to their camps. Lukashenko says that Prigozhin accepted his proposal after some negotiations, criminal case against Prigozhin also was dropped.
So, does it means that Putin reached agreement with terrorists and things will go on like nothing didn't happned. I just remind that during this rebellion Russian army lost six helicopters, transport plane and somehwere 10-15 troops.
Probably this photo summarizes things that happened in last 24 hours best:

BTW seems that this my post didn't aged badly and now it really looks like staged shit:

I have no idea how everything will end, maybe this story will have boring outcome, but my popcorn is ready.

I hope you appreciated the quality and scale of this performance. It turns out that in Russia they are also able to carry out complex and multi-pass psychological operations, and not on the Internet, but in the scenery of the real world. It remains to understand the purpose of this whole circus, during which more Russian planes and helicopters were shot down than Ukraine shot down from the start of the counteroffensive (it was easy, because Ukraine shot down nothing from the start of the counteroffensive).

I think that the main purpose of this performance was to identify a high-ranking mole in the Russian General Staff.

There are other, less expensive ways to find moles.
This makes more sense:

Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd. The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then requiring mediation from a foreign leader to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting impact. The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force. Prigozhin’s rapid drive towards Moscow ridiculed much of the Russian regular forces – and highlighted to any and all security figures, state-owned enterprises, and other key figures in the Russian government that private military forces separate from the central state can achieve impressive results. Wagner’s drive also showcased the degradation of Russia’s military reserves, which are almost entirely committed to fighting in Ukraine, as well as the dangers of reliance on inexperienced conscripts to defend Russia’s borders. The Kremlin struggled to respond quickly in the information space and residents in Rostov-on-Don residents did not oppose Wagner and in some cases greeted them warmly – not inherently demonstrating opposition to Putin but at minimum acceptance of Prigozhin’s actions.[48] Finally, the Kremlin’s apparent surprise at Prigozhin’s move does not reflect well on Russia’s domestic intelligence service, the FSB. Prigozhin consistently escalated his rhetoric against the Russian MoD prior to his armed rebellion and Putin failed to mitigate this risk.[49] We cannot and will not speculate on the concrete impacts of Prigozhin’s rebellion and the Kremlin’s weak response and are not forecasting an imminent collapse of the Russian government, as some have done. Nonetheless, Prigozhin’s rebellion and the resolution of the events of June 23 and 24 - though not necessarily the Prigozhin/Kremlin struggle writ large - will likely substantially damage Putin’s government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 24, 2023

[be.open]

There are other, less expensive ways to find moles.
This makes more sense:

Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd. The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then requiring mediation from a foreign leader to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting impact. The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force. Prigozhin’s rapid drive towards Moscow ridiculed much of the Russian regular forces – and highlighted to any and all security figures, state-owned enterprises, and other key figures in the Russian government that private military forces separate from the central state can achieve impressive results. Wagner’s drive also showcased the degradation of Russia’s military reserves, which are almost entirely committed to fighting in Ukraine, as well as the dangers of reliance on inexperienced conscripts to defend Russia’s borders. The Kremlin struggled to respond quickly in the information space and residents in Rostov-on-Don residents did not oppose Wagner and in some cases greeted them warmly – not inherently demonstrating opposition to Putin but at minimum acceptance of Prigozhin’s actions.[48] Finally, the Kremlin’s apparent surprise at Prigozhin’s move does not reflect well on Russia’s domestic intelligence service, the FSB. Prigozhin consistently escalated his rhetoric against the Russian MoD prior to his armed rebellion and Putin failed to mitigate this risk.[49] We cannot and will not speculate on the concrete impacts of Prigozhin’s rebellion and the Kremlin’s weak response and are not forecasting an imminent collapse of the Russian government, as some have done. Nonetheless, Prigozhin’s rebellion and the resolution of the events of June 23 and 24 - though not necessarily the Prigozhin/Kremlin struggle writ large - will likely substantially damage Putin’s government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 24, 2023

Military experts from the Institute for the Study of War are vainly minding not their own business, trying to figure out the intricacies of Russian political cuisine. Prigozhin never even verbally criticized Putin, in Russia it is somehow not customary to bite the hand that feeds you. The mercenaries of the Wagner group either have a pro-Putin position, or are completely apolitical, more loyal to Putin than Wagner, only bodyguards from his personal guard. This is the only reason why Wagner could exist at all for so long, being outside the legal field (mercenarism in Russia is a criminal offense, Article 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).

ps By Wagner, I mean the main core of the Wagner group, not including the former prisoners who temporarily joined it, recruited on six-month contracts specifically for the assault on Bakhmut.

[TwitchySeal]

Military experts from the Institute for the Study of War are vainly minding not their own business

Their business is literally analyzing armed conflicts around the world.  It's why they are called The Institute for the Study of War.

Prigozhin never even verbally criticized Putin, in Russia it is somehow not customary to bite the hand that feeds you. The mercenaries of the Wagner group either have a pro-Putin position, or are completely apolitical, more loyal to Putin than Wagner, only bodyguards from his personal guard. This is the only reason why Wagner could exist at all for so long, being outside the legal field (mercenarism in Russia is a criminal offense, Article 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).

ps By Wagner, I mean the main core of the Wagner group, not including the former prisoners who temporarily joined it, recruited on six-month contracts specifically for the assault on Bakhmut.

Are you really trying to make the argument that Putin had Prigozhin pretend to stage an attempted insurrection that resulted in Russia losing control of it's military headquarters closest to the front line, have images of Russian helicopters exploding and highways being dug up to slow down the tanks rolling towards Moscow, was all part of Putins plan?  Have you considered what he promised in his speech Saturday morning, compared to what actually happened, and the fact he hasn't been seen since?

You think this is the kind of scenario that Putin would manufacture? 

Revolt Raises Searing Question: Could Putin Lose Power?
Russians with ties to the Kremlin expressed relief on Sunday that Mr. Prigozhin’s uprising did not spark a civil war. But at the same time, they agreed that Mr. Putin had come off looking weak in a way that could be lasting.

Konstantin Remchukov, a Moscow newspaper editor with Kremlin connections, said in a telephone interview that what once had seemed unthinkable was now possible: that people close to Mr. Putin could seek to persuade him not to stand for re-election in Russia’s presidential vote next spring. With Saturday’s events, he said, Mr. Putin had conclusively lost his status as the guarantor of the elite’s wealth and security.

The idea that “Putin is in power and provides stability and guarantees security — it suffered a fiasco on the 24th,” Mr. Remchukov said. “If I was sure a month ago that Putin would run unconditionally because it was his right, now I see that the elites can no longer feel unconditionally secure.”

“Stability” was the Kremlin’s refrain amid the 2020 referendum that cleared the way for Mr. Putin to serve two additional terms, until 2036. And it is the security of the Russian state that Mr. Putin describes as his guiding motivation for invading Ukraine.

Even amid the 16-month-old war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has been focused on normalcy at home. Mr. Putin has resisted hard-line calls to declare martial law or to close the country’s borders. For the elite, the sting of Western sanctions has been compensated by the new business opportunities of Russia’s wartime economy and a domestic market suddenly free of competition from many Western businesses.

But Mr. Prigozhin’s challenge to the Kremlin’s authority this weekend upended that calculus. The leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, Mr. Prigozhin had his forces seize a Russian military headquarters in the south, then sent a column of troops north toward Moscow, vowing to enter the capital. The crisis was defused late Saturday, when Mr. Prigozhin agreed to pull back his forces in a deal that allowed him and his troops to avoid prosecution.

The immediate threat was averted. But in the process, Mr. Putin lost more than his reputation for providing stability: The fact that Mr. Prigozhin and his forces were not being punished punctured Mr. Putin’s reputation as a decisive leader who would not tolerate disloyalty.

That impression was compounded by reports from Russian military bloggers that Prigozhin forces had shot down Russian combat aircraft. Mr. Putin also called Mr. Prigozhin a traitor after he launched his insurrection — and after the mercenary chieftain questioned Mr. Putin’s very rationale for the war in Ukraine. Those transgressions seemed to melt away with the deal that ended the crisis.

Experts said this made Mr. Putin look less in control of the Russian state than previously known. And foreign adversaries were quick to seize on that theme.

[be.open]

Military experts from the Institute for the Study of War are vainly minding not their own business

Their business is literally analyzing armed conflicts around the world.  It's why they are called The Institute for the Study of War.

Prigozhin never even verbally criticized Putin, in Russia it is somehow not customary to bite the hand that feeds you. The mercenaries of the Wagner group either have a pro-Putin position, or are completely apolitical, more loyal to Putin than Wagner, only bodyguards from his personal guard. This is the only reason why Wagner could exist at all for so long, being outside the legal field (mercenarism in Russia is a criminal offense, Article 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).

ps By Wagner, I mean the main core of the Wagner group, not including the former prisoners who temporarily joined it, recruited on six-month contracts specifically for the assault on Bakhmut.

Are you really trying to make the argument that Putin had Prigozhin pretend to stage an attempted insurrection that resulted in Russia losing control of it's military headquarters closest to the front line, have images of Russian helicopters exploding and highways being dug up to slow down the tanks rolling towards Moscow, was all part of Putins plan?  Have you considered what he promised in his speech Saturday morning, compared to what actually happened, and the fact he hasn't been seen since?

You think this is the kind of scenario that Putin would manufacture?  

I'm just expressing my opinion. There was no loss of control over the headquarters in Rostov, these are your empty fantasies, which are not confirmed by any significant changes in the front line during the "mutiny". I think that this was a psychological operation to identify a high-ranking mole in the Russian General Staff, which was successfully carried out by the Wagner group. This will not lead to a weakening of the Russian army, but rather the opposite. But let's not make hasty conclusions, but wait for official announcements about personnel changes. I think not only the identified mole will fall under the personnel purge, but also a number of "parquet" generals who are quite loyal to Putin, for their incompetence.

[DrBeer]

Military experts from the Institute for the Study of War are vainly minding not their own business

Their business is literally analyzing armed conflicts around the world.  It's why they are called The Institute for the Study of War.

Prigozhin never even verbally criticized Putin, in Russia it is somehow not customary to bite the hand that feeds you. The mercenaries of the Wagner group either have a pro-Putin position, or are completely apolitical, more loyal to Putin than Wagner, only bodyguards from his personal guard. This is the only reason why Wagner could exist at all for so long, being outside the legal field (mercenarism in Russia is a criminal offense, Article 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).

ps By Wagner, I mean the main core of the Wagner group, not including the former prisoners who temporarily joined it, recruited on six-month contracts specifically for the assault on Bakhmut.

Are you really trying to make the argument that Putin had Prigozhin pretend to stage an attempted insurrection that resulted in Russia losing control of it's military headquarters closest to the front line, have images of Russian helicopters exploding and highways being dug up to slow down the tanks rolling towards Moscow, was all part of Putins plan?  Have you considered what he promised in his speech Saturday morning, compared to what actually happened, and the fact he hasn't been seen since?

You think this is the kind of scenario that Putin would manufacture?  

I'm just expressing my opinion. There was no loss of control over the headquarters in Rostov, these are your empty fantasies, which are not confirmed by any significant changes in the front line during the "mutiny". I think that this was a psychological operation to identify a high-ranking mole in the Russian General Staff, which was successfully carried out by the Wagner group. This will not lead to a weakening of the Russian army, but rather the opposite. But let's not make hasty conclusions, but wait for official announcements about personnel changes. I think not only the identified mole will fall under the personnel purge, but also a number of "parquet" generals who are quite loyal to Putin, for their incompetence.

1. Destroyed about 20 military pilots, 1 plane 4 helicopters
2. Power fled from Moscow
3. There was no resistance. It is confirmed that one part of it went to the side of the PMC.
4. PMC in Rostov and Voronezh greeted as liberators.
5. Seizure of the headquarters of the Southern Military District is officially confirmed.
6. Yesterday, the president called them traitors, traitors, state criminals, and today - they are all acquitted, no cases, no investigations!


What "moles? This is a very pathetic and ridiculous attempt to make up a "serious story"

[paxmao]

Military experts from the Institute for the Study of War are vainly minding not their own business

Their business is literally analyzing armed conflicts around the world.  It's why they are called The Institute for the Study of War.

Prigozhin never even verbally criticized Putin, in Russia it is somehow not customary to bite the hand that feeds you. The mercenaries of the Wagner group either have a pro-Putin position, or are completely apolitical, more loyal to Putin than Wagner, only bodyguards from his personal guard. This is the only reason why Wagner could exist at all for so long, being outside the legal field (mercenarism in Russia is a criminal offense, Article 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).

ps By Wagner, I mean the main core of the Wagner group, not including the former prisoners who temporarily joined it, recruited on six-month contracts specifically for the assault on Bakhmut.

Are you really trying to make the argument that Putin had Prigozhin pretend to stage an attempted insurrection that resulted in Russia losing control of it's military headquarters closest to the front line, have images of Russian helicopters exploding and highways being dug up to slow down the tanks rolling towards Moscow, was all part of Putins plan?  Have you considered what he promised in his speech Saturday morning, compared to what actually happened, and the fact he hasn't been seen since?

You think this is the kind of scenario that Putin would manufacture?  

I'm just expressing my opinion. There was no loss of control over the headquarters in Rostov, these are your empty fantasies, which are not confirmed by any significant changes in the front line during the "mutiny". I think that this was a psychological operation to identify a high-ranking mole in the Russian General Staff, which was successfully carried out by the Wagner group. This will not lead to a weakening of the Russian army, but rather the opposite. But let's not make hasty conclusions, but wait for official announcements about personnel changes. I think not only the identified mole will fall under the personnel purge, but also a number of "parquet" generals who are quite loyal to Putin, for their incompetence.

1. Destroyed about 20 military pilots, 1 plane 4 helicopters
2. Power fled from Moscow
3. There was no resistance. It is confirmed that one part of it went to the side of the PMC.
4. PMC in Rostov and Voronezh greeted as liberators.
5. Seizure of the headquarters of the Southern Military District is officially confirmed.
6. Yesterday, the president called them traitors, traitors, state criminals, and today - they are all acquitted, no cases, no investigations!


What "moles? This is a very pathetic and ridiculous attempt to make up a "serious story"

be.open is right, the mole has been identified. In fact the success has been so great that around 250.000 moles have been identified (pretty much every single RF soldier and officer).

Meanwhile Wagner got his pay, seems like there are good news for Ukraine. Surovikin will be commanding 

On the terrain gains, sorry to dissapoint but there have been gains in the form of small advances. Most interestingly, there seems to be a small bridge head in the Antonov bridge east side. Ukraine could potentially drive another vector of attack from Kherson. Sounds like Belgium to me.

[be.open]

Military experts from the Institute for the Study of War are vainly minding not their own business

Their business is literally analyzing armed conflicts around the world.  It's why they are called The Institute for the Study of War.

Prigozhin never even verbally criticized Putin, in Russia it is somehow not customary to bite the hand that feeds you. The mercenaries of the Wagner group either have a pro-Putin position, or are completely apolitical, more loyal to Putin than Wagner, only bodyguards from his personal guard. This is the only reason why Wagner could exist at all for so long, being outside the legal field (mercenarism in Russia is a criminal offense, Article 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).

ps By Wagner, I mean the main core of the Wagner group, not including the former prisoners who temporarily joined it, recruited on six-month contracts specifically for the assault on Bakhmut.

Are you really trying to make the argument that Putin had Prigozhin pretend to stage an attempted insurrection that resulted in Russia losing control of it's military headquarters closest to the front line, have images of Russian helicopters exploding and highways being dug up to slow down the tanks rolling towards Moscow, was all part of Putins plan?  Have you considered what he promised in his speech Saturday morning, compared to what actually happened, and the fact he hasn't been seen since?

You think this is the kind of scenario that Putin would manufacture?  

I'm just expressing my opinion. There was no loss of control over the headquarters in Rostov, these are your empty fantasies, which are not confirmed by any significant changes in the front line during the "mutiny". I think that this was a psychological operation to identify a high-ranking mole in the Russian General Staff, which was successfully carried out by the Wagner group. This will not lead to a weakening of the Russian army, but rather the opposite. But let's not make hasty conclusions, but wait for official announcements about personnel changes. I think not only the identified mole will fall under the personnel purge, but also a number of "parquet" generals who are quite loyal to Putin, for their incompetence.

1. Destroyed about 20 military pilots, 1 plane 4 helicopters
2. Power fled from Moscow
3. There was no resistance. It is confirmed that one part of it went to the side of the PMC.
4. PMC in Rostov and Voronezh greeted as liberators.
5. Seizure of the headquarters of the Southern Military District is officially confirmed.
6. Yesterday, the president called them traitors, traitors, state criminals, and today - they are all acquitted, no cases, no investigations!


What "moles? This is a very pathetic and ridiculous attempt to make up a "serious story"

Do you know what was the funniest thing for me in this serious story, which in a few words can be called "a tank stuck at the circus gate"? This is a panic in the West with the emergency activation of the Cobra plan, because none of the Western intelligence agencies could foresee that this would happen. Of course, in hindsight, it seems the CIA said that it was aware, but did not tell anyone, but this is bullshit, because if the CIA knew, then of course it would have warned Ukraine and it would have taken advantage of the moment more successfully, and not looked as if spellbound at what was happening in a static the role of the spectator.

For the Western intelligence services, this is a disaster, because the Western mentality understands the phrase "control the situation" in a peculiar way. For them, this means not having a direct hand on the control panel, but simply being aware of what is happening. And this almost manic desire to "be aware of what is happening" last Saturday failed.

[tvbcof]

Quite an interesting 'read' about the ZNPP details.  On-par (in terms of interest to higher functioning analysts) with the Bulgarian journalist who did the work on the 'American' bio-weapons labs in Georgia.

  70t military grade enriched material accumulated by Ukraine & sponsors at Zaporozhye Nuclear plant
  https://www.bitchute.com/video/vTm7gZ6EvE77/

I have zero reason to doubt that stuff like this was going on, and very little reason to believe that such things (nukes, biological warfare agents, etc) have not migrated out of nation-state containment and into the 'private sector'.

Putin almost certainly would have brought $250,000,000,000 (quarter trillion) worth of SMO booty, once belonging to Larry Fink, home immediately.  He seems to be signaling 'Wanna try a tactical nuclear WW-III?  OK.  We can do that too if you insist.'

[paxmao]

The Ukrainian advances seem to be getting more serious, without yet being a breakthrough. It is likely that the "first line" of defence (wrong name, the first line is the front) will be reached in two weeks. The task is not easy, but everyday it seems more clear that the RF cannot defend all the front at the same time despite having still many troops deployed.  

On Wagner going here and there... it would be funny if it were not for Russia having nukes.

...

70t military grade enriched material accumulated by Ukraine & sponsors at Zaporozhye Nuclear plant

...

Without even going into the veracity of this and given your "expertise" in the mater, could you point out ANY active nuclear energy central anywhere that does not keep highly radioactive materials that could potentially have dual use?

This is like your "biolabs" posts. Can you provide any example of any hospital of a reasonable size that does not have a "biolab"?

[tvbcof]

This is like your "biolabs" posts. Can you provide any example of any hospital of a reasonable size that does not have a "biolab"?

Oh, that ultra-clever trick again:  Clip the words I actually used and make up different ones.  Bravo on your technique...and shame on anyone who falls for such things.

He just regurgitates what he 'reads' on BitChute videos thrown together by conspiracy clickbaitists, to him that is academic journalism. I doubt he even understands what he is saying half the time.

I doubt you understand almost any of it almost ever, but I did stipulated that the post I was simply providing a link to something that semi-serious analysts with a reasonable enough background in the material might find interesting.  The article itself contained a series of observations and conjectures.  Competent parties who are interested can match them against their own and/or follow up on some of the suggestions to further verify.  I myself made some observations about activities in the ZNPP _very_ early on in the SMO, but information on this topic has been being highly censored by all sides.  I 'read' the article via a stream only because it is (or was) printed only in Hungarian and I don't read that language.

I'll post more information about what 'non-lethal biological weapons research' entails at a later date and on a different thread.  Suffice it to say, many 'public health clinics' out in the middle of nowhere are 'biolabs'.  If they are funded (from half way around the world) by USAID and other 'non-profit' NGOs, and through DTRA grants, and that sort of thing, it is highly likely that they are a piece of the puzzle.  It's also worth note that in most cases, not a single employee who set foot in the door of such a clinic has the foggiest clue about what they are involved in or what their role is.

Edit:  This just popped up at the top of BitChute.  And no, I had nothing to do with it.  It's about the Bulgarian reporter's work which I mentioned a few posts back.

  BOMBSHELL DOCUMENTARY FROM 2018 EXPOSES THE U.S. BIOLABS IN UKRAINE
  https://www.bitchute.com/video/EqYl6Pr5nlHL/

[paxmao]

Military experts from the Institute for the Study of War are vainly minding not their own business

Their business is literally analyzing armed conflicts around the world.  It's why they are called The Institute for the Study of War.

Prigozhin never even verbally criticized Putin, in Russia it is somehow not customary to bite the hand that feeds you. The mercenaries of the Wagner group either have a pro-Putin position, or are completely apolitical, more loyal to Putin than Wagner, only bodyguards from his personal guard. This is the only reason why Wagner could exist at all for so long, being outside the legal field (mercenarism in Russia is a criminal offense, Article 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).

ps By Wagner, I mean the main core of the Wagner group, not including the former prisoners who temporarily joined it, recruited on six-month contracts specifically for the assault on Bakhmut.

Are you really trying to make the argument that Putin had Prigozhin pretend to stage an attempted insurrection that resulted in Russia losing control of it's military headquarters closest to the front line, have images of Russian helicopters exploding and highways being dug up to slow down the tanks rolling towards Moscow, was all part of Putins plan?  Have you considered what he promised in his speech Saturday morning, compared to what actually happened, and the fact he hasn't been seen since?

You think this is the kind of scenario that Putin would manufacture?  

I'm just expressing my opinion. There was no loss of control over the headquarters in Rostov, these are your empty fantasies, which are not confirmed by any significant changes in the front line during the "mutiny". I think that this was a psychological operation to identify a high-ranking mole in the Russian General Staff, which was successfully carried out by the Wagner group. This will not lead to a weakening of the Russian army, but rather the opposite. But let's not make hasty conclusions, but wait for official announcements about personnel changes. I think not only the identified mole will fall under the personnel purge, but also a number of "parquet" generals who are quite loyal to Putin, for their incompetence.

1. Destroyed about 20 military pilots, 1 plane 4 helicopters
2. Power fled from Moscow
3. There was no resistance. It is confirmed that one part of it went to the side of the PMC.
4. PMC in Rostov and Voronezh greeted as liberators.
5. Seizure of the headquarters of the Southern Military District is officially confirmed.
6. Yesterday, the president called them traitors, traitors, state criminals, and today - they are all acquitted, no cases, no investigations!


What "moles? This is a very pathetic and ridiculous attempt to make up a "serious story"

Do you know what was the funniest thing for me in this serious story, which in a few words can be called "a tank stuck at the circus gate"? This is a panic in the West with the emergency activation of the Cobra plan, because none of the Western intelligence agencies could foresee that this would happen. Of course, in hindsight, it seems the CIA said that it was aware, but did not tell anyone, but this is bullshit, because if the CIA knew, then of course it would have warned Ukraine and it would have taken advantage of the moment more successfully, and not looked as if spellbound at what was happening in a static the role of the spectator.

For the Western intelligence services, this is a disaster, because the Western mentality understands the phrase "control the situation" in a peculiar way. For them, this means not having a direct hand on the control panel, but simply being aware of what is happening. And this almost manic desire to "be aware of what is happening" last Saturday failed.

You are just getting to the ridiculous point of trying for this show to be somehow a "Western" failure?

So... one of your "generals" go rogue, takes a city, stops short of reaching Moscow, Putin flies to lastly having to say at the same time that all his men are pardoned and free to do whatever they want, then you say he is a criminal, but also thank your puppet Luka for giving allowing him to go away without having to hunt and judge the guy...

Is that the Eastern version of "being in control"? Because I am liking more the "Western" one here.

Look, Putin fucked up, "the West" is all right with it, no problem if it was or not known, it is just another RF clownlike failure and "the West" is only concern is having someone that is not nuts having the "button to end the world". Hint: Putin minimally qualifies.

[swogerino]

I watched Putin’s speech this morning and am surprised with the Wagner mutiny situation. I did not see that coming. I wonder if anyone did. It seems like this war has gone far better than expected for Ukraine. More recently though it appears that this situation may end peacefully for Russia with Wagner reportedly no longer moving towards Moscow, which may swing the war back in their favor.

It is only natural and that coincided with advance of Ukrainian troops in territories that were since 2014 under Donetsk People Republic command.The coup I find it very stupid from Prigozhin to not continue it as he found Moscow government totally unprepared for such offensive,it shows how weak is Russia and how easily tanks can enter their territory if they want and this is of course really bad for Putin regime,anyone now who want to try his luck against Kremlin can do so as the Kremlin not punishing Prigozhin put a really dangerous precedent.

[paxmao]

I watched Putin’s speech this morning and am surprised with the Wagner mutiny situation. I did not see that coming. I wonder if anyone did. It seems like this war has gone far better than expected for Ukraine. More recently though it appears that this situation may end peacefully for Russia with Wagner reportedly no longer moving towards Moscow, which may swing the war back in their favor.

It is only natural and that coincided with advance of Ukrainian troops in territories that were since 2014 under Donetsk People Republic command.The coup I find it very stupid from Prigozhin to not continue it as he found Moscow government totally unprepared for such offensive,it shows how weak is Russia and how easily tanks can enter their territory if they want and this is of course really bad for Putin regime,anyone now who want to try his luck against Kremlin can do so as the Kremlin not punishing Prigozhin put a really dangerous precedent.

Because taking Moscow with 25.000 mercenaries gets you killed and would not change in any case the government, since the rest of the army and many other critical support that are needed to keep power (e.g. GRU) are not with you.

While the army may be busy in Ukraine, they would still most likely be loyal to Putin. This was never about taking power, it was about getting the paycheck and avoiding the effective dissolution of Wagner into the kleptokrat's black-hole that is the general RF army.

[Pidgeon]

Some little advice for some poorly fed troll, Kyiv was conquered in under 3 hours, the Russian army destroyed 3 times all of the NATO, Commonwealth, Black Hole , Cardassian Order , Earth Sphere Federation , Gungan, The Host of the West and Rasalhague Kungsarmé armies, Fulda Gap was overrun in 3 weeks, Portugal was conquered 3 months into the camping and now I hear those damn rashist led by Potemkin are just 200 miles from Moscow!
No clue how to read damn fucking map but this would mean Spokane went from lilac to commie red, so how much till we go full Red Dawn?

[coolcoinz]

Some little advice for some poorly fed troll, Kyiv was conquered in under 3 hours, the Russian army destroyed 3 times all of the NATO, Commonwealth, Black Hole , Cardassian Order , Earth Sphere Federation , Gungan, The Host of the West and Rasalhague Kungsarmé armies, Fulda Gap was overrun in 3 weeks, Portugal was conquered 3 months into the camping and now I hear those damn rashist led by Potemkin are just 200 miles from Moscow!
No clue how to read damn fucking map but this would mean Spokane went from lilac to commie red, so how much till we go full Red Dawn?

It was the Obsidian Order, from the Cardassian Union, but I appreciate the reference.

It was fun while it lasted. I laughed when Putin said that it was a coup and a treachery. I thought it was a special Wagner operation.
In the end Putin said mercenaries can do what they want, they can join the army or go to Belarus, or go home if they want, but he hopes they'll choose to serve the country.
He wants people who wanted his head, traitors, to go home, or join the army... Scared old Vlad...