who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections?

[Sithara007]

I Don't want to bet for US government election because many survey institutions will open survey result then everyone will know what will happen. And i thonk Russia will play big game and there will happen a impact in US government election. After all some people will bet but i am not interested about it. Although USA is big democratic country. People will give vote to elected leader. But there will play big game i think. Overall i wish there will be transparent vote. And a good man will be elected as a President. Because USA is Leading country all over the world. And i think Such a president will come like Jo Biden, Barak Obama who will serve US People's rights properly.

LOL.. the so called Russian intervention is just an excuse for the poor performance of the Democrat party. If Russia had intervened in the elections, then where is the proof for this? And if Russia is in fact able to intervene, then what does that tell about the election system in the United States? Democrats are in trouble because of their own mistakes. They continue to rally behind criminals such as Hunter Biden and the current administration is busy spending money on foreign interventions rather than taking care of the issues back home. 

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[Hispo]

I Don't want to bet for US government election because many survey institutions will open survey result then everyone will know what will happen.

Actually, that is not how it actually works.
Take as an example the last mind-term elections, back then it was assumed that the Republican party would be able to retake both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The so called Red Wave, which in the end turned out to be a red puddle, which barely took over the House of Representatives.

What I am trying to say is that we cannot blindly trust on that polls say, because either they can be biased with the information they gather or their sample of the American population is not even big enough to offer information on an actual electoral outcome.

They use statistics, not magic.

[Sithara007]

I Don't want to bet for US government election because many survey institutions will open survey result then everyone will know what will happen.

Actually, that is not how it actually works.
Take as an example the last mind-term elections, back then it was assumed that the Republican party would be able to retake both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The so called Red Wave, which in the end turned out to be a red puddle, which barely took over the House of Representatives.

What I am trying to say is that we cannot blindly trust on that polls say, because either they can be biased with the information they gather or their sample of the American population is not even big enough to offer information on an actual electoral outcome.

They use statistics, not magic.

I am not sure about how to interpret what happened during the 2022 mid-terms. My argument is that the polls were accurate, but in the last week or so Democrats made a lot of traction and Republicans lost out. There were certain issues such as right to abortion which were used by the Democrats to increase the turnout of their supporters at the last minute. Republicans were somewhat complacent, as they were thinking that they are going to sweep the Senate and House. Senate losses in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania were unexpected. Alaska was also a loss for them, although Murkowski was elected. And Republicans were expected to put up tough fights in Oregon (Smiley) and Colorado (O'Dea), but it never got realized.

[FanEagle]

There was a "little" intervention that was caught, and not just caught but officially done, there was really no hiding or anything like that, but I do not think that it was really the reason Trump won, it was democrat's poor performance for sure.

The intervention that everyone already knew was that Trump got money from Russians, as in donations and it's not illegal, you can find a Russian-American, with an American citizenship, who can get any money she wanted from Russia, that part is not illegal, someone from Russia can easily send money to some American citizen basically, even if they are Russian origin. Then that person started a business, and as we all know citizens united vs government, that companies can donate, and this Russian-American citizen put all that money she got into Trump campaign. That's the only thing, but I doubt that was the reason he won of course, it's just a shady thing, but fully legal.

[mindrust]

Biden took every wrong step in the book. Ruined the economy, started a war, went full woke... People in the US are fed up with his bullshit. People don't care about a war in the other continent. They don't want to send money to a Ukrainan guy which they don't know or care about.

People want lower oil prices, a peaceful life where illegal immigrants don't exist and a life where men and women get along well.

But people in the US failed this IQ test before so it is not impossible for Biden to win again.

[Sithara007]

Biden took every wrong step in the book. Ruined the economy, started a war, went full woke... People in the US are fed up with his bullshit. People don't care about a war in the other continent. They don't want to send money to a Ukrainan guy which they don't know or care about.

People want lower oil prices, a peaceful life where illegal immigrants don't exist and a life where men and women get along well.

But people in the US failed this IQ test before so it is not impossible for Biden to win again.

I don't find this very surprising. Democrats are supposed to do whatever you have listed above. Biden is doing exactly what Obama did during his two terms in 2008-16. Economy was not doing that great when Obama's term ended in 2016. US achieved good economic growth only when Donald Trump came to power in 2016. But poor handling of the COVID pandemic resulted in his defeat during the 2020 elections. And now, it is difficult to predict who will win in 2024. Initially Trump was having an advantage, but according to recent opinion polls Biden seems to be catching up.

[Hispo]

Biden took every wrong step in the book. Ruined the economy, started a war, went full woke... People in the US are fed up with his bullshit. People don't care about a war in the other continent. They don't want to send money to a Ukrainan guy which they don't know or care about.

People want lower oil prices, a peaceful life where illegal immigrants don't exist and a life where men and women get along well.

But people in the US failed this IQ test before so it is not impossible for Biden to win again.

I think you are rather getting a little bit extreme with how bad the economy is in the United States and the importance of the support for Ukraine.
It is not okey for a big country to invade a neighbor, specially without an actual declaration of war and using an euphemism to mask what is going on, sure the American people is not supposed to fund a war going in the opposite part of the world; the conflict would be better handled by a  multi national organization, like United Nations.

Also, when we talk to wokeness, I believe it is very subjective what it actually means to each one of us. There are people who even struggle to explain what wokeness is.

Let us face the truth, every country has problems, but Trump is not the panacea to those problems.

[Betwrong]

~snip~
Yeah, but, do they really want to be responsible for electing someone like Trump for President of the United States? Some of them, yes, but most people use their head, fortunately. Even if they are Republicans, even if they used to support Trump in the past, thay are not going to support him now.

Donald Trump was already elected president of the US one time. That clearly means that it can happen again, easily.

The US is a very divided country, and this election can really go either way.

Was he prosecuted at the time? I don't think so. And it's a big difference. And it's not Russia, where you can be prosecuted only because you have entered the presidential race. It's America. The charges against Trump are serious: "a conspiracy to violate civil rights, a conspiracy to defraud the government, the corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding and a conspiracy to carry out such obstruction."

And people follow the news. They discover things they didn't know in 2016. Here's what Google is giving today:



Do you still think Trump can win?

[LUCKMCFLY]

Biden took every wrong step in the book. Ruined the economy, started a war, went full woke... People in the US are fed up with his bullshit. People don't care about a war in the other continent. They don't want to send money to a Ukrainan guy which they don't know or care about.

People want lower oil prices, a peaceful life where illegal immigrants don't exist and a life where men and women get along well.

But people in the US failed this IQ test before so it is not impossible for Biden to win again.

I don't find this very surprising. Democrats are supposed to do whatever you have listed above. Biden is doing exactly what Obama did during his two terms in 2008-16. Economy was not doing that great when Obama's term ended in 2016. US achieved good economic growth only when Donald Trump came to power in 2016. But poor handling of the COVID pandemic resulted in his defeat during the 2020 elections. And now, it is difficult to predict who will win in 2024. Initially Trump was having an advantage, but according to recent opinion polls Biden seems to be catching up.

Well things in the USA Sound very bad , I don't understand things very well when they are treated due to a very radical economy, Biden I Understand that if he has Allowed many Wars to take place in the world, he does not control that, I do not see a gigantic force like The USA must have it, however I see it with a much more Calm Attitude , what I do know is that once the Price of oil Falls it is very Easy, you just have to end the war between Ukraine and Russia , and Russia Just by Uncovering a bit of the oil that it has Retained there , it is Possible to lower the price of oil to 1 usd, what happens is that these things go a lot here, the business model that is Armed with a very big War, some They lose in wars, but everyone wins in a big way, that is the reality of this, also in politics things change very abruptly, we do not know who is with whom in reality, I am sure that attacking the war and ending it fixes that What I can take Away from this about Biden is that he is Fighting to Lower the Level of Inflation , According to a documentary I Saw, they said that the easiest way is by 2024 and that they had to Apply the bond policies in the banks, which I don't see it well either.

When we are talking about a Government where it has Been with these problems , the US economy is Expensive , I understand that at least for now a migrant must have $2k a month to pay for their residence and services, and in this time when it is very hot , since the cost of electricity is increased by the use of Air, then life in this country is expensive.

Does a change of government lower the cost of living at this time? Would it put an end to that rampant inflation that exists in the USA? I think it's difficult, on the other hand, the Popularity of Trump and Biden may be on par, but from what I've seen from the Others that so many accusations are being made against Trump, I don't know if this ultimately helps or hurts this Candidate As far as I'm Concerned , I think that instead of Harming it, it helps him to gain more Followers.

[Hispo]

~snip~
Yeah, but, do they really want to be responsible for electing someone like Trump for President of the United States? Some of them, yes, but most people use their head, fortunately. Even if they are Republicans, even if they used to support Trump in the past, thay are not going to support him now.

Donald Trump was already elected president of the US one time. That clearly means that it can happen again, easily.

The US is a very divided country, and this election can really go either way.

Was he prosecuted at the time? I don't think so. And it's a big difference. And it's not Russia, where you can be prosecuted only because you have entered the presidential race. It's America. The charges against Trump are serious: "a conspiracy to violate civil rights, a conspiracy to defraud the government, the corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding and a conspiracy to carry out such obstruction."

And people follow the news. They discover things they didn't know in 2016. Here's what Google is giving today:



Do you still think Trump can win?

He still can. Because he has trained his voting base to ignore, not pay attention or even care of the serious charges he is being accused of. There are even people who still believe that 2020 was a fraudulent election, it does not matter what evidence one can show. In their minds, this is all about a secret battle between the deep state and the savior Trump, and the Republican polling shows it.

In the end, all will come down to whether the moderade Republican base will choose reason over Trump's political aspirations.

[Gyfts]

I was looking at the 2020 aggregate betting odds and Biden had rather significant shot at winning: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/us_presidential_election_live_betting_odds.html

Keep in mind, that election came down to something like 50k votes spread across a few swing states.

Similarly, the 2016 election had Clinton up even greater: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2016_president/

That election played the same scenario. IMO the final odds for the 2020 election were giving Biden too much credit.

I've been following the Republican primarily day by day closely, and it's my opinion that DeSantis does not have enough to win the primary. Given Trump wins, I'm expecting the electoral map will look the same in '24 as it did in '20, with Biden winning by a small margin across a few swing states.

It is the changing demography in a few states that gave Biden the upper hand in the end. Unlike what most of us believe, the POTUS elections are not decided by all the 50 states. Rather, the outcome is solely dependent on a few swing states. These states are - Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota and Maine. These 10 states decide the outcome of the elections. It is almost like the other 40 states are not participating in the elections. And Biden has an advantage in many of these states due to changing demographics.

The election in '24 will come down to Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Minnesota and Maine are not relevant, they will go democrat. FL will go Republican, NC will highly likely go Republican, so those two states are out of play too.

A candidate holding any degree of momentum will generally take most of the aforementioned states so you can look at all these states collectively. I don't see Trump winning a single swing state. Arizona and Georgia in particular were embarrassing losses for Trump in 2020, likely to be repeated in '24.

[nullama]

~snip~
The election in '24 will come down to Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Minnesota and Maine are not relevant, they will go democrat. FL will go Republican, NC will highly likely go Republican, so those two states are out of play too.

A candidate holding any degree of momentum will generally take most of the aforementioned states so you can look at all these states collectively. I don't see Trump winning a single swing state. Arizona and Georgia in particular were embarrassing losses for Trump in 2020, likely to be repeated in '24.

There's still a lot of time for the election, and in politics many things can happen.

The whole Trump saga might advance to a point where he is in jail by that time. That will probably affect a lot the numbers, and who knows in which direction.

These things are a bit random, and you can't really predict what people will vote in a few months.

[famososMuertos]

Biden took every wrong step in the book. Ruined the economy, started a war, went full woke... People in the US are fed up with his bullshit. People don't care about a war in the other continent. They don't want to send money to a Ukrainan guy which they don't know or care about.

People want lower oil prices, a peaceful life where illegal immigrants don't exist and a life where men and women get along well.

But people in the US failed this IQ test before so it is not impossible for Biden to win again.

I think it always happens, it is a variable that is difficult to decipher before, when a public official is elected and it is he who represents the intentions of the majority, in my opinion there were two such bad candidates that their choice by the voters was the best of the worst.

 On the other hand, I assure you that it is something very different to support a war and another is to send help to anyone who needs it in a war, I do not understand what you are saying and you are wrong in that thought, fortunately most do not think like that, but we would be reverent shit as a society, what is the fault of that boy in Ukraine for not receiving help from the United States.

[darkangel11]

I saw them tied according to the New York Times poll from last week. Both had 43%.
It's amazing that so many people are willing to vote for these two and not for someone new. Biden is barely doing anything and sleeps on debates. He's too old for this job.
Trump was involved in riots, so he's not really a clean and honest guy to vote for. I'd say that he's better than Biden, but not as good as Kennedy. I guess that's because I'm a libertarian so both Trump and Biden feel like going from bad to worse.

I hope that trump gets convicted and loses votes and Biden just resigns citing old age and the board gets wiped.

In the United States, they have a two-party system. There are fringe candidates from parties such as Libertarians and Greens, but they hardly get more than 1-2% of the total vote. And by now it is almost confirmed that Trump and Biden will be the nominees from their respective parties. It is going to be a repeat of 2016 and 2020, when the voters were forced to chose a candidate who is less evil. Kennedy and DeSantis maybe better choices for the voters, but the problem is that these two can never win the nomination as the presidential candidates.

This still is strange to me that people who support one party or the other (even if all they see is these two sides) vote for their party's candidate even if that candidate is a disgrace to the country.
Biden is nothing more than an old man who doesn't make his own decisions but rather is a face of the White House and he fails even at that by falling and forgetting what he wanted to say.
If I were a democrat, which I'm not, I'd be ashamed of the man who represents my party.
As an undecided voter, I'd have a hard choice between someone who may not live to see the next election, or someone who had a role in riot and did not want to give up power.

[Hispo]

~snip~
The election in '24 will come down to Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Minnesota and Maine are not relevant, they will go democrat. FL will go Republican, NC will highly likely go Republican, so those two states are out of play too.

A candidate holding any degree of momentum will generally take most of the aforementioned states so you can look at all these states collectively. I don't see Trump winning a single swing state. Arizona and Georgia in particular were embarrassing losses for Trump in 2020, likely to be repeated in '24.

There's still a lot of time for the election, and in politics many things can happen.

The whole Trump saga might advance to a point where he is in jail by that time. That will probably affect a lot the numbers, and who knows in which direction.

These things are a bit random, and you can't really predict what people will vote in a few months.

As things has been going lately, with Trump bringing onto the table unprecedented case after unprecedented case; I would not be a surprise if he turned out winning the election while in jail and he also managed to become the first president of the United States to serve his second term from a State jail.

If you take a look at the polls, it would seem that indictments only help to keep the flames of political passions alive, in the case of the MAGA movement. So if he goes to jail and does not give up on his campaign then his popularity may still stay intact or even increase, these are weird times we are living through.

[Sithara007]

Looks like hundreds of people have died in the Hawaii wildfires and Biden administration was very lax, at least during the initial phases. Official death toll is still 93, but according to media it may rise exponentially. Hawaii is still a deep blue territory, but the impact will be felt across the other states in the US. Opinion polls that will be released in the coming days may provide a better picture on how much the ground situation has changed. This is an ideal opportunity for Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP to swing the momentum in their favor.

[Iroh]

Looks like hundreds of people have died in the Hawaii wildfires and Biden administration was very lax, at least during the initial phases. Official death toll is still 93, but according to media it may rise exponentially. Hawaii is still a deep blue territory, but the impact will be felt across the other states in the US. Opinion polls that will be released in the coming days may provide a better picture on how much the ground situation has changed. This is an ideal opportunity for Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP to swing the momentum in their favor.

You do know that the Governor of the affected state has to first hand in a request to the president to declare that a major disaster has occurred in the state and then, the presidents declaration activates federal help to the affected state. I wonder how you think Biden was negligent when he immediately approved Hawaii cry for federal help.
Yes, isn’t that what Trump and the GOP does? Wait for something bad to happen and capitalize on it without having any solutions themselves. When Puerto Rico was ravaged by a hurricane in 2017, what did he do? Withhold aid initially and later travelled there himself to literally throw paper towels at the crowd.

[Hispo]

Looks like hundreds of people have died in the Hawaii wildfires and Biden administration was very lax, at least during the initial phases. Official death toll is still 93, but according to media it may rise exponentially. Hawaii is still a deep blue territory, but the impact will be felt across the other states in the US. Opinion polls that will be released in the coming days may provide a better picture on how much the ground situation has changed. This is an ideal opportunity for Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP to swing the momentum in their favor.

I have seen pictures of those wildfires in Hawaii and I must way it was not something I would have expected to happen. I am accustomed to see news of that kinds coming from California or other western States.

To be honest, the GOP and specially Donald Trump has done that in the past, take advantage of a tragedy and the response the Biden administration provides or rather does not provide. It happened with the toxic train derailment some months ago. With his visit I am sure Trump managed to get thousands of new supporters in that state, on the other hand, Biden does not seem to even care to get out of bed and get his hands dirty while visiting Hawaii.

[Sithara007]

You do know that the Governor of the affected state has to first hand in a request to the president to declare that a major disaster has occurred in the state and then, the presidents declaration activates federal help to the affected state. I wonder how you think Biden was negligent when he immediately approved Hawaii cry for federal help.
Yes, isn’t that what Trump and the GOP does? Wait for something bad to happen and capitalize on it without having any solutions themselves. When Puerto Rico was ravaged by a hurricane in 2017, what did he do? Withhold aid initially and later travelled there himself to literally throw paper towels at the crowd.

What prevents Biden from visiting Hawaii? Even the local Democrat leaders have criticized Biden's handling this time. When Justin Sink (Bloomberg White House correspondent) interviewed Biden during the beach getaway, Biden just said "no comment" when asked about the Hawaii disaster. BTW, a lot of conspiracy theories are floating around in the social media. Some of them are claiming that the residents of Lāhainā were targeted deliberately for their refusal to sell real estate to billionaires. Celebrities such as Oprah Winfrey own large plots of real estate near the affected area. BTW, authorities denied permission for a PR exercise from Oprah, after she reached one of the shelters with TV crew:

https://news.sky.com/story/hawaii-wildfires-oprah-winfrey-turned-away-from-shelter-as-death-toll-rises-12939060

[retreat]

Biden took every wrong step in the book. Ruined the economy, started a war, went full woke... People in the US are fed up with his bullshit. People don't care about a war in the other continent. They don't want to send money to a Ukrainan guy which they don't know or care about.

People want lower oil prices, a peaceful life where illegal immigrants don't exist and a life where men and women get along well.

But people in the US failed this IQ test before so it is not impossible for Biden to win again.

Biden is not much worse than Trump, but Trump is quite better than Biden even though there is a lot of controversy surrounding him but in his government we don't see unreasonable things like donations to other countries where the country needs more, defaults several times, and many Other things. If Biden runs again as a candidate in 2024, I am pessimistic that he will win again given what he has done for America.