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Goomboo (OP)
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June 30, 2013, 10:12:08 PM |
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The foolishness demonstrated on this message board is unbelievable to me. I just glanced across the thread titles and noticed several claiming “BTC will be $x,xxx,xxx by this date”. What a worthless speculation. Can’t the reader see that it is infinitely more valuable to ignore these useless threads and focus instead on cultivating the character traits and methodology necessary to profit if price were to actually rise to this level while developing risk controls to protect your hard-earned capital if price were to go to $0.00? Here are two hypothetical people, you tell me which is more rational and worthy of imitating:
Person A: I think price is going to go to $1,000,000 by the year 2020. I need to invest the majority of my disposable income into BTC so that I can retire by the time I’m 40. I don’t care what others say if it contradicts my beliefs, I just care about selling out at that $1,000,000 and being rich beyond my wildest dreams.
Person B: I don’t know where price is going. I don’t know what the future holds. What I do know is that I should do everything in my power to ensure that I am ready for the uncertain future. If price rises to infinity or falls to zero, it is my job to defend what I have worked my entire life to earn. I understand that it will take character and discipline to stay the unpopular course, but I also understand that it is the right thing to do.
Can’t you see that it is infinitely more valuable to acquire discipline rather than wealth? Why are you not struggling to emulate these character traits? Even if Person A receives his cool billion, his destruction is still on the way. He gambled his life on a decision and won, but the character flaws are still present and uncontrolled. Eventually he will lose it all due to the compulsive nature he never confronted.
To make this absolutely relevant to all readers of this thread: If you are following the system used in this thread and holding BTC, why? For the daily traders, your exit signal was generated 25 days ago and price has declined over 20% since. This is 20% of your hard-earned money which you have lost due to a lack of discipline and an inability to follow through with what you know to be right. You either should drop the charade that you are trading or man up and cut your losses.
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"Bitcoin: mining our own business since 2009" -- Pieter Wuille
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Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
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Crypt_Current
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June 30, 2013, 10:20:02 PM |
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To make this absolutely relevant to all readers of this thread: If you are following the system used in this thread and holding BTC, why? For the daily traders, your exit signal was generated 25 days ago and price has declined over 20% since. This is 20% of your hard-earned money which you have lost due to a lack of discipline and an inability to follow through with what you know to be right. You either should drop the charade that you are trading or man up and cut your losses.
Jeez Goomboo, you really want in bad! Having trouble finding cheap BTC??  Just messing with you as always -- I'll remind you here that I've actually learned alot from this thread. |
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Qoheleth
Legendary
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Activity: 960
Merit: 1028
Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.
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June 30, 2013, 10:44:51 PM |
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To make this absolutely relevant to all readers of this thread: If you are following the system used in this thread and holding BTC, why? For the daily traders, your exit signal was generated 25 days ago and price has declined over 20% since. This is 20% of your hard-earned money which you have lost due to a lack of discipline and an inability to follow through with what you know to be right. You either should drop the charade that you are trading or man up and cut your losses. Hmm. On the one hand, this is an important reminder (and an example of the importance of discipline). On the other hand, I feel like I have to chime in that there are reasons to still be holding BTC, even for a trader, provided that the held BTC is not, nor ever was it, part of a trading position. Trading and investment can coexist in a single person, provided that that person doesn't let them mix. (Letting them mix, as always, is letting your emotions get in the way of making money.) |
If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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Goomboo (OP)
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June 30, 2013, 11:03:51 PM |
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Jeez Goomboo, you really want in bad! Having trouble finding cheap BTC?? Caught me!  I keep trying to bash the price so I can acquire more BTC, but I just can't seem to get the price low enough. Glad you've learned from the thread. |
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Goomboo (OP)
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June 30, 2013, 11:09:18 PM |
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On the one hand, this is an important reminder (and an example of the importance of discipline). On the other hand, I feel like I have to chime in that there are reasons to still be holding BTC, even for a trader, provided that the held BTC is not, nor ever was it, part of a trading position. Trading and investment can coexist in a single person, provided that that person doesn't let them mix. (Letting them mix, as always, is letting your emotions get in the way of making money.)
Bingo. I agree with you 100%. The last paragraph of my post is directed specifically towards traders of the system taught in this thread who have failed to take the recent exit signal. |
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Goomboo (OP)
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July 01, 2013, 11:02:37 PM
Last edit: July 03, 2013, 10:35:03 PM by Goomboo |
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...they are one of the few sites that provide a visualisation of the orderbook. Assuming I have understood correctly what you mean by liquidity, any tips for those of us not used to looking at a page full of numbers as to how to make that determination quickly?
The RTBTC platform has now launched and it has the cleanest visual market depth tool I have seen.  |
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scibe
Newbie
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Activity: 9
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July 03, 2013, 07:01:51 PM |
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Agreed. Did a 1 month trial based upon your recommendation just to see what it can do and have been very impressed so far.
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Goomboo (OP)
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July 03, 2013, 10:23:58 PM |
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Agreed. Did a 1 month trial based upon your recommendation just to see what it can do and have been very impressed so far.
Yeah, RTBTC is a nice trading platform. It has the feel of a professional trading platform like Bloomberg, but rather than costing $1,200 per month, it only costs $10. |
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Goomboo (OP)
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July 03, 2013, 10:34:30 PM |
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For the daily traders, your exit signal was generated 25 days ago and price has declined over 20% since. This is 20% of your hard-earned money which you have lost due to a lack of discipline and an inability to follow through with what you know to be right. You either should drop the charade that you are trading or man up and cut your losses.
Price has fallen 36% since the sell signal generated on June 6th, 2013.  The relentless sell-off continues. There is no justifiable reason why a trend-following trader should be experiencing losses right now. |
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Goomboo (OP)
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July 03, 2013, 11:06:32 PM |
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 Even hourly traders, who are typically subject to more "noise", have been able to preserve their account balance from a 20% decline since the beginning of the month. As I have said throughout this thread time and again: it is silly to blindly trust your wealth to the decimating volatility of this market. You must have a method of cutting your losses quickly or you will be crushed. |
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ErebusBat
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July 04, 2013, 01:09:24 AM |
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Goomboo... I noticed that the EMA values are the same on your daily and hourly charts, is this an oversite or do you not multiply when going higher resolution (240/504 for example)?
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Goomboo (OP)
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July 04, 2013, 01:46:10 AM |
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Goomboo... I noticed that the EMA values are the same on your daily and hourly charts, is this an oversite or do you not multiply when going higher resolution (240/504 for example)?
Yeah, I look at the 10/21 to gauge trend direction on every timeframe...I do not multiply when going to a higher/lower timeframe. Thank you for the question and observation, but I'm confused: why would you think that I multiply when going to a different timeframe? |
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ErebusBat
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July 04, 2013, 03:03:21 AM |
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but I'm confused: why would you think that I multiply when going to a different timeframe?
I just assumed that if you used a 10/21 on a D1 chart that if you were 'zooming' in to say an H1 chart that you would multiply to get the same lines, just at the higher granularity as now it is only looking at 10 hours rather than 10 days. I am no expert, just pur assumption on my part, which is why I asked. I just never paid that much attention to the bitcoincharts charts before, and as I have been using RTBTC as well my eye was drwan to it. |
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Goomboo (OP)
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July 04, 2013, 03:26:00 AM |
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I just assumed that if you used a 10/21 on a D1 chart that if you were 'zooming' in to say an H1 chart that you would multiply to get the same lines, just at the higher granularity as now it is only looking at 10 hours rather than 10 days.
I am no expert, just pur assumption on my part, which is why I asked. I just never paid that much attention to the bitcoincharts charts before, and as I have been using RTBTC as well my eye was drwan to it.
Ah, I see what you mean! Yeah, I keep the same 10/21 on the chart regardless of timeframe - it helps me quickly assess if the market is trending up, down, or sideways during that specific timeframe. Thank you for the question |
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Crypt_Current
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July 04, 2013, 03:27:15 AM |
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hey Goomboo... did you buy < $75   |
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Goomboo (OP)
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July 04, 2013, 03:43:36 AM |
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hey Goomboo... did you buy < $75 Alas, I did not :p |
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Goomboo (OP)
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July 04, 2013, 02:57:03 PM |
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Hi and welcome to the thread, I have flipped through John Murphy's book, but I didn't find it too helpful. After you've read 2 or 3 technical analysis books, the material becomes repetitive/boring. In my opinion, this is a "must-read". The book approaches technical analysis from an academic standpoint rather than the traditional path, which I view to be quite arcane. What I enjoyed most about the book is that it doesn't only teach you technical analysis, but also provides decades of backtests showing you historic results. |
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Goomboo (OP)
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July 04, 2013, 03:56:19 PM |
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The observant speculator should make note of the thread titles that crop up on this message board during times of market volatility. Of the current popular threads, over half are either questioning why prices are falling or essentially begging fellow coiners to “hold the line”. Does either of these classifications of market participants seem prepared to handle market volatility? One person seeks to find an answer before acting and another shuts his mind off to the possibility of market collapse.
During bull markets, when all seems well and unrealized profits grow every day, there seems to be very little need for discipline and risk management. When prices are increasing by leaps and bounds, it is easy to mentally agree that discipline and a method are important, because after all, “if my account is rising, then I must surely be doing something right”. The error underlying this reasoning is that your entire foundation is built upon emotion. When the market collapses however, your foundation is shaken and you are either in denial or asking why (the most popular topics on BitcoinTalk these days).
There is an old market saying: “Bull market foster sloppy habits. Bear markets cultivate a healthy respect for risk management and discipline.” If you are currently asking why or thinking about doubling down in your BTC investment to “buy the lows”, I encourage you to consider using the current market conditions as an excellent teaching opportunity. Learn discipline and practice a tested method. It is more important that you learn discipline from this endeavor than make money. Luckily, in the world of trading, disciplined traders tend to be best positioned to ultimately profit.
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RyNinDaCleM
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
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July 04, 2013, 04:01:07 PM |
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The observant speculator should make note of the thread titles that crop up on this message board during times of market volatility. Of the current popular threads, over half are either questioning why prices are falling or essentially begging fellow coiners to “hold the line”. Does either of these classifications of market participants seem prepared to handle market volatility? One person seeks to find an answer before acting and another shuts his mind off to the possibility of market collapse.
During bull markets, when all seems well and unrealized profits grow every day, there seems to be very little need for discipline and risk management. When prices are increasing by leaps and bounds, it is easy to mentally agree that discipline and a method are important, because after all, “if my account is rising, then I must surely be doing something right”. The error underlying this reasoning is that your entire foundation is built upon emotion. When the market collapses however, your foundation is shaken and you are either in denial or asking why (the most popular topics on BitcoinTalk these days).
There is an old market saying: “Bull market foster sloppy habits. Bear markets cultivate a healthy respect for risk management and discipline.” If you are currently asking why or thinking about doubling down in your BTC investment to “buy the lows”, I encourage you to consider using the current market conditions as an excellent teaching opportunity. Learn discipline and practice a tested method. It is more important that you learn discipline from this endeavor than make money. Luckily, in the world of trading, disciplined traders tend to be best positioned to ultimately profit.
Great post Goomboo! I love the wisdom you convey  |
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