Goomboo's Journal

[oda.krell]

Oda, in your experience, how have 18/45 hourly held up? In my experience it's one of the most profitable, especially on BTCe.

I never tested anything on BTCe, but for mtgox:

I'm assuming 1% fee. Without treshold, poorly (minus 3%, on my May to August data).  With -0.2/0.2 treshold, pretty good, +30%. But lots of trade signals (25). Too much for my taste, I guess.

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[TradesLikeAPotato]

Oda, in your experience, how have 18/45 hourly held up? In my experience it's one of the most profitable, especially on BTCe.

I never tested anything on BTCe, but for mtgox:

I'm assuming 1% fee. Without treshold, poorly (minus 3%, on my May to August data).  With -0.2/0.2 treshold, pretty good, +30%. But lots of trade signals (25). Too much for my taste, I guess.

Thanks.

[Raffles]

Saw this and thought of you guys on this thread (which started me looking at this stuff):

http://etfhq.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/sma-ema-eod-cross-return.gif

Link to the full article that the image came from:
http://etfhq.com/blog/2013/01/15/golden-cross-which-is-the-best/

[S3052]

Thanks
This article is a great analysis

[pacojones]

Hi all, Goomboo here!

......
I trade a 10 and 21 exponential moving average crossover.  When the 10 crosses over the 21, I buy.  When the 10 crosses under the 21, I sell or sell short.
........

AHHHH - THANK YOU - I've been trying to figure out this strategy and these 3 sentences answered my question - something I've been trying to answer for 2 days!

[Goomboo]

AHHHH - THANK YOU - I've been trying to figure out this strategy and these 3 sentences answered my question - something I've been trying to answer for 2 days!

Definitely, glad to hear that it has 'clicked'.

Best of luck with your trading

[Goomboo]

We're 9 days into a trend and daily traders are sitting on an unrealized profit of around 10.5%.  As always, these profits should be viewed with skepticism in that price erosion is entirely possible.

The trend has continued its march upwards.  Unrealized profit is around 48% on open positions.  As always, be skeptical of profits - "The trend is your friend until the bend at the end".

[Vagnavs]

is it just me or the program is not working? One thing I notice the charts aren't displaying at bitcoins charts. At least for me anyhow

screenshot: http://screencast.com/t/kfPhjAAHNc

[Rampion]

is it just me or the program is not working? One thing I notice the charts aren't displaying at bitcoins charts. At least for me anyhow

I guess that SR (the very "Bitcoin killer app") being raided by the feds screws up pretty much everything in the Bitcoin ecosystem... Including TA, EMA crossovers and such

[oda.krell]

is it just me or the program is not working? One thing I notice the charts aren't displaying at bitcoins charts. At least for me anyhow

I guess that SR (the very "Bitcoin killer app") being raided by the feds screws up pretty much everything in the Bitcoin ecosystem... Including TA, EMA crossovers and such :D

There's actually an easy solution to that: just don't trade while that's the case :D

I know this will sound a bit dumb, but that principle (trade if you're certain, don't trade otherwise) never occured to me until lucif/masterluc mentioned it at some point.

Sure, the problem then becomes "how do you know if you're certain or not), but for example right now, I wouldn't use the crossover signals from a daily method, because they're almost certainly going to be lagging behind.

[tickets]

So can we get updates each time you make trade as to what the actual price etc was?

As I read it, looks like there was a SELL signal on Oct 2-3 around 125 for about 25% profit, then another buy signal yesterday at about 141 -- is that correct??  MACD is also crossing up which would add confidence for me...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90za1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g21zxzi1gMACDzl

[Goomboo]

So can we get updates each time you make trade as to what the actual price etc was?

Sorry, I'm not a signal service.

As I read it, looks like there was a SELL signal on Oct 2-3 around 125 for about 25% profit, then another buy signal yesterday at about 141 -- is that correct??

Edit:

The first part of your sentence it correct - you exited in that time frame.  There was a one day sell signal which resulted in an 8% loss (assuming you went short - I'm long only) immediately following the closed trade.  And correct, there was another buy signal generated a few days ago.

Goomboo

[termhn]

I like the look of a 10/25 triangular 2-hour.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig2-hourztgSza1gTMAzm1g10za2gTMAzm2g25

[Goomboo]

And correct, there was another buy signal generated a few days ago.

Daily traders should be sitting on an unrealized profit of around 51% or $70 per coin.  As always: be skeptical of unrealized profits.

[lucas.sev]

Daily traders should be sitting on an unrealized profit of around 51% or $70 per coin.  As always: be skeptical of unrealized profits.

Hi Goomboo

Thank you for the topic, it is very informative. I was wondering, what do you mean by 'be skeptical of unrealized profits'? Should I understand it as 'be weary of daily traders going into profit taking mode'? Or something else?

[Ozymandias]

Daily traders should be sitting on an unrealized profit of around 51% or $70 per coin.  As always: be skeptical of unrealized profits.

Hi Goomboo

Thank you for the topic, it is very informative. I was wondering, what do you mean by 'be skeptical of unrealized profits'? Should I understand it as 'be weary of daily traders going into profit taking mode'? Or something else?

Basically, it's not a profit until you've sold and the fiat is in your pocket

[notme]

Daily traders should be sitting on an unrealized profit of around 51% or $70 per coin.  As always: be skeptical of unrealized profits.

Hi Goomboo

Thank you for the topic, it is very informative. I was wondering, what do you mean by 'be skeptical of unrealized profits'? Should I understand it as 'be weary of daily traders going into profit taking mode'? Or something else?

Basically, it's not a profit until you've sold and the fiat is in your pocket

Right.  Goomboo approaches trading from the viewpoint of investing USD for USD profits.  This gives him good profit over the long term, with lower risk than those investing for BTC profits.  Those traders are essentially compounding their profits, which can grow you investment capital, but from the USD prospective, those gains are at risk.

[Goomboo]

Thank you for the topic, it is very informative. I was wondering, what do you mean by 'be skeptical of unrealized profits'? Should I understand it as 'be weary of daily traders going into profit taking mode'? Or something else?

Below said it great:

Basically, it's not a profit until you've sold and the fiat is in your pocket

It's just a reminder to keep a clear head when the markets appear to be going crazy and avoid greed.

[xybersurfer]

Optimization and the 10 & 21 moving average crossover system

In order to determine the robustness of our trading system, I have decided to see how our parameters hold up when they are varied.  To accomplish this, I used NinjaTrader to do an optimization of a variety of periods for our moving averages and I have graphically shown the results below.

This type of analysis shows us very important information - regions of profitability.  For nearly every technical indicator, there are parameters which you input (such as 10 and 21 in the moving averages), which determine how much data it uses in calculating values.  If you have a trading system which only works with a certain combination of parameters, this is a curve-fit system, or a system which will probably not hold up well in the future.

In order to insure robustness, or its ability to hold up in the future, a system must be rigorously tested across a variety of markets and a variety of settings.  In the chart below, you will see 620 moving average combinations with their respective profitability.  It is important to note that the data has been normalized, so the number you see is meaningless - it is just a comparison to all of the other data points.  Additionally, it is very important not to look for the best value, but rather look for a region of profitability.  Markets change over time and the best results today probably will not be the best results tomorrow.  This said, it is important to try and place yourself in the region in which you will more than likely be able to survive and profit in the future.

-Red = below average
-Yellow = average
-Green = above average







The image above powerfully demonstrates the use of a simple technical trading concept applied to the markets.  When you are creating a trading system, you must question where the inputs came from.  Why did I choose 10 for my short moving average?  Why is 21 a good moving average length?  In order to protect your money, you must begin asking "why" to the decisions you make.  I suggest that you critically analyze, quantify, and backtest every aspect of your decision making so that you can behave in a consistent, confident, and disciplined manner as you trade in the markets.

this seems really useful. the region at the top is obviously the largest/greenest (probably the most robust compared to the other regions).

- but what makes it robust?
- what if the largest region was a single square?

[velacreations]

do you have a performance report for your method?  like last 6 months or year?