Goomboo's Journal

[piotr_n]

I expect that if you could make this available for non programers then there would be some paying interest demand for it, I'd be interested if it was idiot proof or nearly & not needing a PHD in geekism to set up with different parameters

I could have, but you should not be trusting strangers in internet to take care of such stuff.

If the 2 crossing EMAs tech really works more often that not (anyone tested it? results?) I would let a bot run by some forum member with rep to play with a few of my BTC. A good bot would even be more than enough for a speculative fund quoted on the GLBSE.  

I tested it many times, in many different combinations, with the historical data.
Basically if you optimize for profit, much less than 50% of your entries are winning ones in such H1 based system.
But in general you profit - from following the trend, because as we all have noticed, when it goes up or down, then it really does enough to compensate the small loses...
At least so far - nobody knows tomorrow. Even with the historical data the optimal values depend on the period you choose - how many days you test and from when...

But my general measures, of a long term data, also show that if you switch from H1 to D1, you might actually get a similar scale of a potential profit - just with fewer swaps.
And also a better percentage of winning bets - if you care

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[nrd525]

How much does this strategy rely upon Bitcoin's continued extremely high volatility? 

I expect the volatility to decrease as the market becomes more mature (more actors, more based on the actual value of bitcoin, less hacks, more reliable bitcoin companies). And at some point the bitcoin technology might stabilize (currently fpga or ASIC could shake things up).

As volatility decreases, there were be more sideways action, and the fees will eat up more or all of your profits.

[LD-ZOGY8]

How much does this strategy rely upon Bitcoin's continued extremely high volatility? 

I expect the volatility to decrease as the market becomes more mature (more actors, more based on the actual value of bitcoin, less hacks, more reliable bitcoin companies). And at some point the bitcoin technology might stabilize (currently fpga or ASIC could shake things up).

As volatility decreases, there were be more sideways action, and the fees will eat up more or all of your profits.

I have also wondered about this. However you have to remember that we are still very early on in the game. Not all the bitcoins have been mined yet, and it is still a long way from mainstream acceptance. I believe this will keep it in the realm of speculators for a while to come. How long is a while? No idea. But I am going to reassess my investment on a 12 monthly basis - can't see much long term stability developing in that time frame.

[gewure]

How much does this strategy rely upon Bitcoin's continued extremely high volatility? 

I expect the volatility to decrease as the market becomes more mature (more actors, more based on the actual value of bitcoin, less hacks, more reliable bitcoin companies). And at some point the bitcoin technology might stabilize (currently fpga or ASIC could shake things up).

As volatility decreases, there were be more sideways action, and the fees will eat up more or all of your profits.

I have also wondered about this. However you have to remember that we are still very early on in the game. Not all the bitcoins have been mined yet, and it is still a long way from mainstream acceptance. I believe this will keep it in the realm of speculators for a while to come. How long is a while? No idea. But I am going to reassess my investment on a 12 monthly basis - can't see much long term stability developing in that time frame.

approximatelly in 2140 all coins will have be mined. i doubt anyone of us will take part in this moment

[Otoh]

I expect that if you could make this available for non programers then there would be some paying interest demand for it, I'd be interested if it was idiot proof or nearly & not needing a PHD in geekism to set up with different parameters

I could have, but you should not be trusting strangers in internet to take care of such stuff.
It's a piece of software, which you run on your PC, that deals with your money - you don't know me, so you shouldn't be taking it from me if you cannot understand what is inside.
Otherwise someone will screw you over one day - and I'm not being cynical here, it's just life that we all need to deal with

yep, I'd always make sure any script had been checked first by someone that I trusted - I wouldn't want it to go all Linode on me, or as you say posted as open source here, like Jessie's Bitcoin alarm free/donations

What I can do to help you..
You tell me what do you actually need and I can post some simple scripts here, so others could verify if I'm not screwing you over with them.
And then you can run them on your pc, if you want. I can eventually tell you what you need to install first - a software from some trusted source, like google, oracle or microsoft

that sounds great, thank you - when I have a little time I will look more in to what I might want, I imagine something like being able to easily enter a pair of EMAs or SMAs & that buy/sell action was triggered when they crossed + x% (x also settable & maybe % move more in the same direction or time? or combo??)

But basically, as when it comes to bitcoincharts+bitcoinica, I believe all you need is a continuously running web browser - you can afford it, cant you?

yep, my comp is on 24/7 - I don't think that it uses much juice & goes in to sleep mode after a while of afk but I guess would still be checking the APIs etc

For the new mtgox api, which i think is much better, they have a crypto with some weird hmac stuff - I dont know how easy it would be to do it in javascript. Probably php would be best here, since their example actually works - and there is not much more one needs to add over that.

yep, to be able to buy & sell or trigger limit orders on Mt.Gox would be great

I'd probably need a while to mull it all over, I'm sure that they'd be plenty of others interested in this too

[Otoh]

Goomboo is this roughly the chart that you're using & did you close out your short position (at a profit from about $5.80 to $4.80) & then go long at the start of this month?

[piotr_n]

I'd probably need a while to mull it all over, I'm sure that they'd be plenty of others interested in this too

While you've been mulling it over... I should have something for you to try by tomorrow.
I will start a separate topic in the Trading forum, to not spoil Goomboo's Journal anymore.
Just want to test it a bit more overnight.

It's an extension for Chrome browser - trivial to install / not so complex to setup / very easy to use.
And relatively easy to review - just a few KB of JS code, with some ajax stuff.

I had already had my bot, quite more advanced, but since I was so bored today and I like coding Chrome extensions... I made it for you
Anyway, will let you know soon - stay tuned.

[SkRRJyTC]

I'd probably need a while to mull it all over, I'm sure that they'd be plenty of others interested in this too

While you've been mulling it over... I should have something for you to try by tomorrow.
I will start a separate topic in the Trading forum, after I test it a bit more overnight.
Extension for Chrome browser - trivial to install / not so complex to setup / very easy to use.
And relatively easy to review - just a few KB of JS code, with some ajax stuff.

I had already had my bot, quite more advanced, but since I was so bored today and I like coding Chrome extensions... I made it for you
Anyway, will let you know soon - stay tuned.

This sounds great.  +1

[Otoh]

I'd probably need a while to mull it all over, I'm sure that they'd be plenty of others interested in this too

While you've been mulling it over... I should have something for you to try by tomorrow.
I will start a separate topic in the Trading forum, to not spoil Goomboo's Journal anymore.
Just want to test it a bit more overnight.

It's an extension for Chrome browser - trivial to install / not so complex to setup / very easy to use.
And relatively easy to review - just a few KB of JS code, with some ajax stuff.

I had already had my bot, quite more advanced, but since I was so bored today and I like coding Chrome extensions... I made it for you
Anyway, will let you know soon - stay tuned.

cool    look forward to checking it out, muchas gracias

[epsillion]

Goomboo, I have sent you a bit of coin in appreciation of this thread

Keep up the good work

[piotr_n]

I had already had my bot, quite more advanced, but since I was so bored today and I like coding Chrome extensions... I made it for you
Anyway, will let you know soon - stay tuned.

Done.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=67591.0

[Goomboo]

I'd like to thank everyone for participating for the past two months throughout this journal.  My intention has been to help individuals approach the markets in a systematic, rational, and tested way.  Also, I have tried to "throw the ball into your court" by telling you how it is: you will more than likely fail if you don't own up to your decisions by testing, scrutinizing, and attempting to disprove your edge.  My hope for you is that you take responsibility and put in the necessary time and effort to protect the money you have worked hard to earn.

I do not have time to continue posting on a message board.  I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.

[adamstgBit]

I'd like to thank everyone for participating for the past two months throughout this journal.  My intention has been to help individuals approach the markets in a systematic, rational, and tested way.  Also, I have tried to "throw the ball into your court" by telling you how it is: you will more than likely fail if you don't own up to your decisions by testing, scrutinizing, and attempting to disprove your edge.  My hope for you is that you take responsibility and put in the necessary time and effort to protect the money you have worked hard to earn.

I do not have time to continue posting on a message board.  I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.

sad to see you go,
consider visiting us from time to time and post some posts in other threads, we welcome your input on any subject.

...

  are you going to sell all your bitcoins?

[Crypt_Current]

I'd like to thank everyone for participating for the past two months throughout this journal.  My intention has been to help individuals approach the markets in a systematic, rational, and tested way.  Also, I have tried to "throw the ball into your court" by telling you how it is: you will more than likely fail if you don't own up to your decisions by testing, scrutinizing, and attempting to disprove your edge.  My hope for you is that you take responsibility and put in the necessary time and effort to protect the money you have worked hard to earn.

I do not have time to continue posting on a message board.  I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.

TRANSLATION:
"I've made a tidy profit off all you heathens, and now I can take a loooooooooong vacation on a tropical isle.  SMELL YA LATER!"

   I'm just messin' with ya, ya silly Christian guy.  But honestly, thanks for the info; I actually learned quite a bit from what you've shared.

[jatajuta]

Goomboo, can I ask what software you are using? I would like to try and run some figures of my own.

I use:
-Ninjatrader - backtesting / optimizing
-Excel - taking Ninjatrader's output and applying formatting to "pretty" it up


Steps I followed:
1.  Download Ninjatrader and learn how to import data and create custom instruments
2.  Download the data from www.bitcoincharts.com and modify it in Excel such that it can imported (they have some mistakes where opens are greater than highs, etc.)
3.  Import the data into Ninjatrader
4.  Create a strategy
5.  Backtest and optimize the strategy
6.  Export the data to excel
7.  Put it in a pivot table, color the range, format it
8.  Put it in a picture and upload it

For anyone who is interested in stock, futures, forex, or commodities trading, I highly recommend Ninjatrader - it is a solid, solid platform.

I downloaded the NinjaTrader and MtGox historical data from bitcoinchart but when i try to import historical data to ninjatrader gives me an error message, anyone had been able to plot data and backtest with bitcoins on ninjatrader, if so please give a help on how to download a proper historical data from bitcoincharts to ninjatrader.

Thanks for all the great info!

[Clark]

The 10/21 EMAs are now plotted on bitcoin.clarkmoody.com, by the way.

[elux]

Nice. I did wonder if that was what those lines were.

Suggestion: Add a checkbox for enabling this feature to the controls panel. Off by default seems reasonable.

[Clark]

Suggestion: Add a checkbox for enabling this feature to the controls panel. Off by default seems reasonable.

This service will see very little development over the next few months, as I'm working on launching a new project. The current feature request list mainly centers around the chart, and this item is on the list, but don't get your hopes up too soon    I think most visitors can handle some EMAs without too much confusion.

[Goomboo]

Since this journal began on January 20th, the trading system has continued to be profitable.

If you had followed the system exactly, without fail:
- You should now be sitting on a 34% year-to-date profit.
- At worst, you were down 15% during the month of April, but during the months of May through August, you earned a 65% return.
- You should currently be short, sitting on an 8% unrealized profit.
- You should have outperformed nearly every global asset class in terms of both risk and return this year.

[jimbobway]

On Jan 20, Bitcoin was about 5-6 dollars.  If you just simply held on to your bitcoins you would have made over 100% return.