rpietila Altcoin Observer

[NewLiberty]

Here is the three-day resolution chart for Dogecoin vs CNY on Bter as presented by BitcoinWisdom. Note what appears to be an upwards breakout of the resistance trendline that I drew from the early 2014 peak.

Breakout on no volume is not significant.
Breakouts happen with volume, at least average volume +50%
The declining volume trend will have to reverse before it will matter.

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[SlipperySlope]

Here are the current cyptocurrency market capitalizations are reported by coinmarketcap.com. Note that Monero has fallen a place from 11th to 12th. Some of these coins are quite unlike Satoshi's Bitcoin, having more or less anonymous cryptographic tokens as the common feature. Supply marked with an asterisk cannot be proof-of-work mined.

[smooth]

I bet that the average hodlr would rationalize it as the behavior of a single bad actor not reflective of the behavior of the entire team.

Would you?

I would be concerned about the presence of a confirmed or even strongly suspected scammer in any core team. It raises questions about the others being involved, condoning improper actions, etc. Furthermore it raises questions about what even the one untrustworthy core team member may have done that could put my investment at risk. It does not produce answers, but it does raise questions. For investment that is often enough to be relevant.

[coins101]

I find scary someone invested on an instamined coin (DRK)

That's a bit uncalled for.

Many $millions have changed hands since January, what is left are people working hard to deliver a working privacy solution based on bitcoin codebase. 

I'm sure BitFinex and many others would have done their homework before exposing their clients to DRK.

[aminorex]

Did they personally invest or did they invest other people's money?

Only personal so far.

[Jungian]

I find scary someone invested on an instamined coin (DRK)

That's a bit uncalled for.

Many $millions have changed hands since January, what is left are people working hard to deliver a working privacy solution based on bitcoin codebase. 

I'm sure BitFinex and many others would have done their homework before exposing their clients to DRK.

I don't know if that's uncalled for or not, but I'm pretty sure BitFinex care a lot more about getting money to themselves than the chance of exposing clients to risk. Why would they care about that?

[rdnkjdi]

Did they personally invest or did they invest other people's money?

Only personal so far.

That's perfectly believable to me.  Investing clients money seems a little bit more of a stretch if reputation is on the line.  

There's enough volume over time to hide multiple (50 - 250K) gambles in there ... doubt any whale is going to be trying to move millions over to any anon coin until one pulls ahead as the winner

Which hasn't happened yet. 

[coins101]

I find scary someone invested on an instamined coin (DRK)

That's a bit uncalled for.

Many $millions have changed hands since January, what is left are people working hard to deliver a working privacy solution based on bitcoin codebase. 

I'm sure BitFinex and many others would have done their homework before exposing their clients to DRK.

I don't know if that's uncalled for or not, but I'm pretty sure BitFinex care a lot more about getting money to themselves than the chance of exposing clients to risk. Why would they care about that?

First off, I invested in Darkcoin, then mined it for a while. So I'm one of the 'scary someone invested....' people, so I didn't take too kindly to that.

BitFinex took a lot of flack from its customers when they pre-announced the addition of DRK. They maybe in it for the money, but they also wouldn't want to lose existing trade. Unlike Mintpal and others who go for volume of coins, BitFinex don't, so they wouldn't walk into a project that had problems and didn't have prospects based on a dedicated team.

The same for vault of satoshi when they were first looking to integrate DRK <> USD. They had a good look around too.

[AlexGR]

I find scary someone invested on an instamined coin (DRK)

If I ask you, what was the cost of the entire DRK instamine at then-running prices, and what was the cost of the unfairly mined XMRs with >50% of the hashrate at then-running prices, do you know the answer?

Do you also know the answer which was the biggest "scam", in terms of BTCs?

Hint: The entire DRK instamine costed <50 BTC for the first 2 weeks of DRK's life as the prices were at 0.000025 btc per DRK / 0.25 BTC per 10k DRK / 2.5 BTC per 100k DRK.

Hint2: Read the post of the XMR miners on the 100x mining program on how much they were making.

Hint3: Don't throw stones while living in a glass house.

Hint4: Don't apply retroactive valuations to call "scam", because then it poisons the system with fallacies like "Satoshi is a 1bn-USD scammer for solomining Bitcoin" - like the 50BTC blocks he mined back then were worth anything. If they did, we wouldn't have 10.000 BTC Pizzas. Likewise instamined DRKs were traded for peanuts / they were considered nearly worthless and thus were sold in five-digit packages.

[smoothie]

I find scary someone invested on an instamined coin (DRK)

If I ask you, what was the cost of the entire DRK instamine at then-running prices, and what was the cost of the unfairly mined XMRs with >50% of the hashrate at then-running prices, do you know the answer?

Do you also know the answer which was the biggest "scam", in terms of BTCs?

Hint: The entire DRK instamine costed <50 BTC for the first 2 weeks of DRK's life as the prices were at 0.000025 btc per DRK / 0.25 BTC per 10k DRK / 2.5 BTC per 100k DRK.

Hint2: Read the post of the XMR miners on the 100x mining program on how much they were making.

Hint3: Don't throw stones while living in a glass house.

Hint4: Don't apply retroactive valuations to call "scam", because then it poisons the system with fallacies like "Satoshi is a 1bn-USD scammer for solomining Bitcoin" - like the 50BTC blocks he mined back then were worth anything. If they did, we wouldn't have 10.000 BTC Pizzas. Likewise instamined DRKs were traded for peanuts / they were considered nearly worthless and thus were sold in five-digit packages.

It doesn't matter the price but the distribution.

DRK was unfairly and centralized distributed/mined on its conception

XMR was not.

All you are saying is XMR gave more financial return while being most honestly distributed, win + win.

Hint: which one of the bellow are the most suspicious and unfairly looking:





XMR Block reward:



XMR Emission Curve:



XMR house is made of bullet proof glass.

Very well put.

Not to mention that as far as I am still aware DarkSend is not open source yet which is a huge problem.

[Peachy]

Sorry to eMunie fans, that is my technical opinion. If you want details you can do Google search on "site:bitcointalk.org AnonyMint eMunie". Essentially PoS delegation strategies devolve to reputation, centralization, and fiat.

We shall see soon.   

[AlexGR]

It doesn't matter the price but the distribution.

Price matters because cheap price = coin spreads.

Don't seriously tell me that XMR, a coin that has a very serious technological barrier to entry for non-computer geeks, running on frickin' command line, is better distributed. People couldn't even compile a wallet or move money between themselves or exchanges. Even now they can't.

A technological barrier to entry ensures problematic distribution for all except those with way-above-average technical knowledge.

DRK was unfairly and centralized distributed/mined on its conception

XMR was not.

Except for the part that 100x gains were possible for the miner and some people were mining that way... that's the "concept" / initial XMR conception.

Hint: which one of the bellow are the most suspicious and unfairly looking:

Since you are in drawing curves, also draw one for the profitability of a normal XMR miner and a 100x XMR miner... yes, very fair and unsuspicious for everyone involved.

XMR house is made of bullet proof glass.

If you say so.

[smooth]

Since you are in drawing curves, also draw one for the profitability of a normal XMR miner and a 100x XMR miner... yes, very fair and unsuspicious for everyone involved.

There was likely never a 100x advantage. The 100x was the maximum advantage dga reported from start to finish, but the public miner got faster as well over the same period of time.

Nevertheless you can actually compute the potential value of it by looking at the total number of coins produced during that period. That is a maximum, and not a very good estimate because there were certainly non-advantaged miners during that period. It still isn't much.

[AlexGR]

Since you are in drawing curves, also draw one for the profitability of a normal XMR miner and a 100x XMR miner... yes, very fair and unsuspicious for everyone involved.

There was likely never a 100x advantage. The 100x was the maximum advantage dga reported from start to finish, but the public miner got faster as well over the same period of time.

Nevertheless you can actually compute the potential value of it by looking at the total number of coins produced during that period. That is a maximum, and not a very good estimate because there were certainly non-advantaged miners during that period. It still isn't much.

The entire DRK instamine cost less than 50 BTC for two weeks after the launch.

dga & partner (and who knows who else) made hundreds of BTCs with the 30-50-100x Monero miner.

And DRK is the "scam".

Ok.

[drawingthemoon]

Don't forget that during the BBR rise, these same XMR shills were the ones ridiculing BBR miner who was dumping at whatever the prices were. Apparently that didn't help with the distribution. Same set of lies being used even on trollbox on a daily basis by Pietila and others.



Perhaps the focus should be on maligning and slandering anonymous devs.

[MalMen]

After few weeks just reading here i am putting some of my opinion about all this discussion about drk vs xmr
I started mine XMR around block 40000, so, pretty soon after the coin been released, the only regret that i have is not buying XMR at that point...
XMR was been with problems yesterday, but the fast work of the devs proof that me that we are on good hands, also i am an IRC guy, so i keep watching the progress and the dev team is very open to critics and know how to make the work
I was watching DRK since april (few weeks before know the XMR) and never crossed my mind mine it or even invest in it... i could make a good money on it, but beeing instamined and closed source for me is a bomb "tick-tacking"... instamine is a huge problem, the coins are not proper distributed, and after all of that i think darkcoin guys should worry alot about darksend beeing closed source, i guarantie you that if any day it become opensource someone will explore the code at max, and probably find some bugs that can be dangerous for the network, if it still closed source still bad and someone can find bugs on it too, just take more time... XMR beeing opensource for me is a relief, i know alot of people had reviewed..

Dont want to sound like a XMR lover, i am realy looking positive to this....

But as the wise people say... dont put all your eggs on same basket

[drawingthemoon]

Do we still have fund managers here managing XMR for their clients? Are you planning any exit strategy for them in the wake of consistent exploits/attacks on XMR mainnet? I know it is much easier to still speculate in XMR with own money, but is there any concern for other people's monies yet?

The exploit could have affected all the CryptoNote coins.

Right, I don't know about other CN coins, but only one seems to be the focus and a testnet for exploits. I am not sure why they have so much hate.

What do you suggest, that we stop investing in new experimental currencies because of risk?

Quite the extrapolation. Most fund managers are risk averse, especially when dealing with other people's money.

[AlexGR]

and if Monero had any unfair distribution you wouldn't have read me here

There is no such thing as fair distribution. The world is imbalanced (wealth-wise) and this affects every distribution scheme.

The situation can only get worse by things like instamines, 100x miners*, accelerated reduction curves, barriers to entry / barriers to trade, etc.


* As the poster above said, BBR was crucified as unfair for having someone with a faster/GPU miner. Now the truth has come out that XMR has been mined for a lengthy period with heavily accelerated miners. You can't have double standards about these issues.

i guarantie you that if any day it become opensource someone will explore the code at max, and probably find some bugs that can be dangerous for the network, if it still closed source still bad and someone can find bugs on it too, just take more time...

If you "guarantie" it, then it must be true.

DRK is based on coinjoin. Which means you throw your 10 DRKs in a bucket, I throw my 10 DRKs in the same bucket and they go out 10 + 10 to different destinations but nobody can tell which is which. It can't be "dangerous to the network".

Masternode consensus on who gets paid, that's another issue altogether because it introduces a second layer of consensus on top of who gets paid the block, and yes that one can be dangerous to the network and it has forked the network on prior implementation attempts. (Masternode protocol is open source btw).

[smooth]

The entire DRK instamine cost less than 50 BTC for two weeks after the launch.

I'm talking about amount of coins, which is what matters to the distribution of a coin. If you convert them to BTC then you have a BTC potential distribution issue and also a potential coin distribution issue with whoever you sold them to (or not, it depends).

Don't conflate the two.

[smooth]

There are not nurturing venture capitalists investing in the block chain experiments, e.g. Idealab. As far as I know with the exception of Ethereum, the venture capital is pouring into Bitcoin related startups only.

I haven't seen anything about venture capital going into Ethereum. As far as I know they got free money. Who needs VC's and their headaches when you can do that?