nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

BFX USD swaps tamer around 0.1%/day.

US unemployment at 3.9% - lowest since 2000.

Zoom out and look at the max view.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

Several bubbles are probably helping to stimulate demand - including the property market, the stock market (notably the tech sector and companies like Amazon), crypto, etc (I think the art market might be in a bubble as well?).  And from a pure capitalist perspective, we're paying people in these bubbling industries far more than they are producing (and hiring increasingly less productive workers as the bubbles cause labor shortages).  Though it is fascinating that wages are barely moving.

It looks like we're headed towards a recession soon.  It is also possible that we could sustain 3.5%-4% unemployment for a year or two, but normally these cycles end in a bust.

[nrd525]

BCH is upgrading to 32 MB on May 15 and pumping - 0.17 BTC and rising.

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/8el8n7/bitcoin_cash_is_upgrading_on_may_15_to_32mb_max/

[Samarkand]

BCH is upgrading to 32 MB on May 15 and pumping - 0.17 BTC and rising.

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/8el8n7/bitcoin_cash_is_upgrading_on_may_15_to_32mb_max/

I suspect that BCH trading is still heavily manipulated, because so many BCH are controlled
by a few people (I guess they used the recent price slump to corner the market even more).

As if a coin like BCH would need a blocksize increase...

These are the last few Bitcoin Cash blocks:

[nrd525]

https://bitcoin-millionaire.com/my-btc-wallet/
This investor is interesting for their transparency.  Some questionable investments though.

[nrd525]

Just realized they timed the BCH block increase for Consensus 2018 (May 14 - May 16).  Wow.  The one thing about Bitcoin Cash is they are very good at marketing.

[nrd525]

https://www.coindesk.com/research/state-blockchain-q1-2018/?slide=7

Unfortunately they don't know how to make proper bubble charts (see slide 7 - where they used the radius as proportional to the market cap - so twice the market cap -> 4 times the area).  On Page 7 this makes bitcoin look good. On page 15 (fees), it makes bitcoin look bad.

"What's happened to bitcoin?"  Ignores SEC pending regulation of ICOs and the corresponding impact on alt-coins and bitcoin. Also - these graphs are always made after the fact. So they add negative and positive events to fit the market trend.  Historically the big mistake with this in my opinon is the overstatement of the role of Cyprus's partial confiscation of bank accounts.

Does anyone understand the pentagon diagrams?

Ha. They think the CBOE had a role in increasing shorting and decreasing the price.  While ignoring the metrics from real exchanges where 90%+ of the shorts are?  Incompetent.

They pick on the Venezuelan Petro ICO as a scam. Rather than daring to target a mainstream ICO and alienate their audience.

Survey. No number for the percent of people holding 500k+ of crypto.  3% involved in 2011 (like me).  37% people think they'll become a crypto millionaire in 2018!  

In general, there are some indicators of a bubble. But they didn't ask the hard hitting questions or show the hard hitting graphs (like the 20x rise in BTC price from 2016 and 100x to 1000x rise in various altcoins) that would show a more accurate picture of the bubble. As such, we're solidly in bubble denial territory and hopefully everyone who shelled out $1500+ to attend Consensus will become a crypto millionaire without paying any taxes

...

Meanwhile - I'm still waiting for the BCH pump.  One day to the fork...

12 hours now.  Countdown:
https://cash.coin.dance/

[nrd525]

The lack of BCH pump has me seriously questioning Roger Ver's integrity

Bcash Features
-smaller blocks than Bitcoin - average of 100kb - they use an advanced consensus non-software based filter that decreases transactions before they hit the block chain (aka the "bcash is stupid filter"). This makes it easier to decentralize as anyone can easily download the block chain!

-greater volatility than Bitcoin.  This is good for speculators and discourages transactions.  Once again making it better for decentralization.

-Roger Ver.  Not as hot as the Winklevoss Twins, but still quite the character.

-Snarky user base.  Future buttcoiners?

-Not a security. In these days of ICOs that are potentially all securities (source - did the SEC chair or someone big at SEC said this) and potentially Ethereum is one as well - it gives you the chance to gamble without risking confrontation with the SEC.

[TheQuin]

-Not a security. In these days of ICOs that are potentially all securities (source - did the SEC chair or someone big at SEC said this) and potentially Ethereum is one as well - it gives you the chance to gamble without risking confrontation with the SEC.

That all came from the news reporting about this statement from SEC Chairman Jay Clayton:

https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/statement-clayton-2017-12-11

[nrd525]

Is there anything we can learn from the cornering of the silver market?  I think the BTC graph looks very different.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

Notably silver crashed a lot faster (compared to its rise time).  Probably because a single actor (Hunt Brothers) got margin called.  Whereas with bitcoin we have many more actors.

[TheQuin]

Probably because a single actor (Hunt Brothers) got margin called.  Whereas with bitcoin we have many more actors.

It was the action of their broker increasing the margin requirements that caused the reversal. We haven't seen anything like that in Bitcoin (yet).

I think the BTC graph looks very different.

I totally agree with that. What I do find striking is the similarity between Bitcoin and gold, albeit on differing timescales.



It looks like Bitcoin in slow motion. The large bull runs in gold were driven by geopolitical events inducing a flight to perceived safety. Then when the price starts taking off the FOMO brings in a speculative frenzy that eventually fades away bringing a quick reversal. With Bitcoin the initial driver is different, increased exposure in the mainstream media, but what follows is very similar.

[nrd525]

Interesting.  Gold might be more comparable.

I just learned this:
"In 2016, the U.S. Congress modified the definition of an accredited investor to include registered brokers and investment advisors. Also, if a person can demonstrate sufficient education or job experience showing his professional knowledge of unregistered securities, he is also considered an accredited investor."

Thanks Obama

So this means that as a self-proclaimed ponzi expert (and denouncer of ICOs and various unregistered security "tokens"), I'm now an accredited investor? 
How do they judge my experience?  I think I might be in a grey area.  I think I've stayed out of unregistered securities, unless ETH is one.

Otherwise getting $1 million in assets is more difficult.  I'm not sure the SEC is intentionally trying to encourage people to sell their house - it's a hilarious side effect.

[TheQuin]

How do they judge my experience?

It was a long time ago when I worked on Wall St. but you used to have to pass an exam.

[nrd525]

Is there a website that graphs the market cap for the ICO tokens? 

There are some very silly ICOs:
https://icodrops.com

[nrd525]

While I've been thinking SEC regulation of ICO -> altcoin collapse -> bitcoin collapse
It could be that bitcoin collapse -> altcoin collapse -> ICO scams running off with funds -> SEC regulation

For instance, Bitconnect ponzi collapsed a couple weeks after BTC price peaked.  It's easier to maintain a ponzi in a parabolic bullish market.  Similarly for an ICO whether they are an outright scam or just a solid business proposal that gets 100x the level of funding that it deserves - the latter will still collapse if the ICO founders decide that they should stop creating new ICOs (I'm very skeptical of these entrepreneurs with multiple ICOs or crypto related startups - just sticking to one and doing it right should be more likely to succeed).

6700!

[nrd525]

Got any more bubble stories for the overall economy?

Uber lost $1.5 billion in the third quarter of 2017.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2017/12/14/why-cant-uber-make-money/#457ac37610ec

Tesla loses $675 million in fourth quarter of 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/feb/07/tesla-quarterly-loss-elon-musk-spacex

Bike sharing startups in Seattle are letting you rent a bike for $1 and probably losing millions:
http://kuow.org/post/how-do-seattles-bike-share-companies-make-money

Seattle House prices are in a bubble.  $800k for a median house!
http://q13fox.com/2018/03/07/despite-record-home-prices-in-puget-sound-economist-say-we-are-not-in-a-bubble/

Locally in Philadelphia we are having a milder housing boom. Assessments recently increased 10% city-wide, but it was for a two year period.  Most households have relatively low income compared to the US median, so the housing boom is concentrated in several neighborhoods.

If you take the log of the Fed's median house price chart (available under "Edit Graph"), it looks fairly normal.  Of course small housing bubbles are pretty normal.  Probably most areas of the country are relatively tame.  Past three years the growth is around 4.5%/year (previous three years were more like 8%).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS

German 10 year bonds have positive yield (0.5%).  Looks like the end of negative interest rates. Switzerland is at approximately 0%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR10:IND

Is there any good data/charts on how many tech companies are losing huge amounts of money, and yet their valuations are in the billions?

[nrd525]

This NYT article and 60 page research paper from a professor and graduate student on price manipulation and Tether during the 2017 bull run is huge.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/8qr0fd/new_york_times_university_of_texas_at_austin/

While Tether itself isn't attacked, it appears that it was used by one or more whales to contribute a lot of bullish pressure.  The general theory is that they've stopped operating and we're now in a bear market.  So we're waiting for the whales to resume their bullish activity, for other whales to do so, or for lots of smaller players (us) to identify a bottom and reverse the trend.

Of course we've now read very good reports on the MtGox "WillyBot" and its role in the 2013 boom.

This makes sense, but it is unclear whether the whales are any more responsible for manipulation than the many small actors - some of who hype crypto currencies and make insane predictions about a bullish future.

The more people believe there was manipulation, the less likely they are to buy until the price has bottomed and starts to recover.  The bottom might be established by a group of people who are buying on the way down, or a group of people who think it has bottomed and they are buying it on the way up.

[nrd525]

SEC says ethereum is not a security!

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/sec-announces-ether-not-security-162658147.html

[nrd525]

Betfair has odds on Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum.  For instance, there is aapproximately a 53% chance of BTC closing the year under 5k!  And a 75% chance it will drop below 5k at some point.
https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/financial-bets

I've got bids placed from 2k to 5k, buying more at the lower range.  Though I'm prepared to wait 6 months for them to get hit.

[nrd525]

We might be in for a long (1-2 year?) bear market.  BTC crashed from almost 20k down to 10.5k, and has bounced to around 13k.  Or maybe a faster bear market with more aggressive shorting as there are more margin trading options than in 2014.

Charlie Lee's tweet that he was selling all his LTC might actually have triggered other oldtimers (possibly developers) to sell Bitcoin.  Of course we've been due for a bear market for a long time.

I'm thinking I want to buy in the 1-2k range.  But very hard to predict the bottom.  Might be a lot safer to start buying in at 3k.

I would have sold 2 btc at 19k, but was holding on for January for taxes.  Should have sold!

BFX USD margin funding down from 1 billion to 650 million.

I'm loving this prediction. 

Also the following posts where I actually placed buy orders at 1k-2k.  Premature, but a decent long term strategy.  Unfortunately I waivered and didn't sell due to taxes.

[nrd525]

Not sure why people think selling over the counter doesn't affect market price.  Supply and Demand!  Does selling over the counter generate its own demand equal to the selling?
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180622_announcement_en.pdf