nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

The BFX USD swap rate has been spiking every 9-13 days - four times in a row. 

Feb 15
Feb 26
March 10
March 19

http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd.php

Possible cause - someone with a lot of 10-12 day swaps that renews a large amount at the same time (and does so in a period of high swap demand - otherwise the rates would spike down). If it were 7 days (or 14 days), it could be waiting for new money to be processed by the banks - but that doesn't seem to be the case.

For all the more (relatively) cautious investors out there, it looks like BFX swaps are back to making decent returns.  Though I'm still going to be very happy if I get 20% APR for 2015.

[nrd525]

If we do get into a solid bull market, the Bitfinex USD swaps could rise to $100 million in as little as 4 months (quadrupling the current $24 million).  That extra $75 million can buy a lot of bitcoins (250,000 at $300 each).  Now while $100 million is currently in the medium to long term, if the swap keeps growing by $500,000-$2,000,000/week - that is still some decent bullish pressure - and it's only part of the overall pressure.

Of course if history repeats, the Bitfinex USD swaps will peak after the bull market is over.  So it isn't the most reliable indicator.

[nrd525]

BFX btc swaps are up a lot - to 26800 BTC, pretty close to the all-time record of around 27000 BTC.
http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc.php

There is also strong bullish sentiment in the $25 million USD swaps which are at local high of the most since July/August 2014 (when we had a dramatic decline from $31 million to $18 million).

I'm not sure what this strong set of divergent opinions means.  Increased volatility?

[nrd525]

The best thing about having your income plunge 60% due to Bitcoin losses is the tax refunds! 

#Bitcoininvestorproblems

[uki]

The best thing about having your income plunge 60% due to Bitcoin losses is the tax refunds! 

#Bitcoininvestorproblems

Tax refunds may be also the reason behind halting the recovery of Bitcoin in March.
Great thread, added to my watch list, thanks.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

The best thing about having your income plunge 60% due to Bitcoin losses is the tax refunds! 

#Bitcoininvestorproblems

+1

[nrd525]

Bitfinex USD swaps up 1.3 million in the past 24 hours to $26.6 million (looks like a short-term bet on the bounce back from 244 to 255 - or even 260).

BTC swaps also up by 700 to 27,000.  Not sure what they are thinking.

No new fundamentals.

[nrd525]

Does anyone know what factors determine the premium that Circle charges for bitcoins compared to the market Bitstamp or Bitfinex rate?

In the past I've seen it around 0.8-1% over Bitfinex. Currently it is 1.3%.  I'm wondering if it is higher because Bitstamp is at the same price as Bitfinex (so it might be based on the average of the two), whereas normally Bitfinex trades a bit higher.

I'm trying to get some money into Bitfinex to lend more USD swaps and want to use Circle to get it there. But 1.3% premium  + 0.1% Bitfinex fee + 0.2% slippage - adds up.  The payback is still pretty good - 19 days (after fees if the 0.1%/day swap rate holds), and assuming you want your money in Bitfinex.  As getting it back into USD would cost me another 1-2% (unless I move all my money using an international wire).

I'm only moving $1000-$2000, so international wires aren't worth it.

Coinbase rates are even higher than Circle.  0.6-0.7% over the BFX market price, plus a 1% fee.  So using them would cost me 2% to get my money to Bitfinex.

[nrd525]

Hmm. Shorts (after just reaching another all-time-high on BFX) are winning. BTC down as low as $231, but bounced back to $236.  They might be going for $215-$220.  On the other hand, if we bounce off $231 as the bottom - we should go back to around $265.

Fundamentals: news story about NJ wanting to impose sales tax twice on bitcoins is disturbing.  Once to buy the bitcoins (as they are treated as property) and secondly for the sales tax on the actual good.

[nrd525]

http://www.pillsburylaw.com/publications/five-things-you-should-know-about-nj-taxation-of-virtual-currency

They also tweeted that NJ sales in bitcoin are not subject to double sales taxation.

https://twitter.com/msantoriesq/status/587735450795802624

Meanwhile: $220.

[nrd525]

Slow and steady declines are not good.  Though I'm also tempted to buy 10-20 for a short-term long as the price seems low.

US bitcoiners might be getting some tax refunds due to capital losses.  Though the most you can deduct from your income is $3000 (the rest of the losses have to be used against gains in the same year, or future years).

[bigtimespaghetti]

Slow and steady declines are not good.  Though I'm also tempted to buy 10-20 for a short-term long as the price seems low.

We're crazy oversold on a lot of timeframes. It is tempting, but I think it would be more tempting if it pushes down lower. I feel like I'm second guessing myself and the market right now.

Is it just me or does this decline feel methodical rather than panic driven as in the last severe sell off?

[nrd525]

BFX BTC swaps at another all-time-high.
27,200 BTC

https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc

Though for the past several hours BFX data hasn't been able to monitor this number.

Recently it looks like BFX changed their stats page so they now show both the outstanding swaps AND the total amount that is used in margin positions.  Currently 1100 BTC of swaps aren't in use (4%), whereas only $80,000 of US swaps aren't in use (0.33%).

[nrd525]

Bitfinex BTC swaps up to 28,050 (1000 unused).

For the past five days or so I feel like we've been hanging out on a possible cliff.

Whale Club (vaughn.tv) trader sentiment has been pretty negative as well.

I'm more used to Bitcoin establishing bottoms with a flash crash and high volume.  Can it also do it on lower volume over the course of several days just by hanging around a price?  If so, the price keeps reverting to 222 - and around 215 is a level of support.

[nrd525]

Bitfinex BTC swaps at 30,025.

[Chef Ramsay]

Bitfinex BTC swaps at 30,025.

People are lucky to even get above .04% for their swaps these days when you could easily get north of .06 at the beginning of the month.

[RoadTrain]

Shorting is very popular lately. Shorts are climbing fast while the price is somewhat stable. That's why I'm avoiding shorting now

[nrd525]

BTC swap rates are going to spike really high (like 0.2% to 0.7%/day) if the trend continues.  But I'm more interested in what people are thinking and whether this a useful indicator of anything.

BTC swaps now at 30500.

I recall BFX USD swaps peaking AFTER the BTC price peaked (once at the $1150 peak, and at least once more when the price recovered in early 2014) - so it could be a lagging indicator due to trend following traders who fail to recognize when the trend is reversing.  If so, it is more evidence that we're in a (weak) bullish market with $165/$155 bottom as the lowest we'll see for two years or more (outside of crashes due to exchanges getting hacked or runaway margin calls).

[nrd525]

BFX BTC Swaps are down to 29000.  Around 11 hours ago, someone closed a 1500 BTC short position on Bitfinex causing the price to spike to 227.

[D05GTO]

Saw these big buy walls for BTC since Friday.  It's like someone with a crap load of cash doesn't know what to do with it.   Just moving it around trying to get sold into.