nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

Shorted 100 LTC at 1.81, and another 100 at 1.78.

[nrd525]

BFX usd swaps up 500k to 28.5 million.

[nrd525]

Shorted LTC
100 at 1.83
100 at 1.85
100 at 1.935
100 at 1.975

My overall LTC position (since the start) is down $61.

BFX LTC price spiked to $2.42 (vs $2.10 on BTCe), probably due to margin calls.  The LTC (only available) swap rate spiked to 0.7%, though the flex rate didn't go past 0.1%.  Somebody had reserved 100k LTC swap, but wasn't using it!  So only 125k out of 225k swap was being used.  That makes it look like the margin calls were some kind of manipulation, but I know very little about how that'd work.

Apparently people are excited about the LTC block reward halving in August 2015.  But that makes no sense.  I think it's a basic pump.

During this whole period, the BTC price has only made minor gains.

Maybe BTC will go bullish once the block size debate is resolved.  Ideally the MtGox coins would be auctioned OTC as well.

Bitfinex USD swaps continue to reach new high for the past 10 months - at $29.0 million.

[Chef Ramsay]

I wouldn't be shorting litecoin right now. I just took it from .00745 to .00855 to went back to bitcoin. Hopefully, I'll catch another dip to a similar entrance point and perhaps moon is right around the corner.

[nrd525]

Got any fundamentals besides the block halving?  The general alt-coin market is like a permanent bear market, and we've been seeing a divergence where BTC is thriving with projects, businesses, and venture capital - while the alt-coins are dying.

I might just be bitter because of Doge, but I think that crypto-currency has some natural monopoly characteristics - especially in the early stages (say next 2-5 years).  So for instance, it isn't that hard to have a payment processor - but Paypal still dominates (even though there are alternatives with fees near zero - like Dwolla).

Also - is there any good discussion of LTC price? I looked at litecointalk, reddit/litecoin, and this forum.  I don't see much.

[nrd525]

Some metrics on # transactions and # wallets.  Bullish, but the "mega price rally" is a bit overkill.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-network-growth-metrics-next-mega-price-rally/

[nrd525]

My LTC short is going very poorly (currently $460 loss).  Does anyone have a good explanation for what is happening? Is it just a LTC pump? It looks like LTC broke out of its downward trend line, but the fundamentals are bad. What is LTC used for?  Is it used on the dark markets?  I know it is used by several gambling sites.

BTC is up (and broke $250), so maybe LTC is over-reacting to that.

So
-BTC going up  --> LTC goes up faster (as LTC typically has multiple times the volatility of BTC)
-LTC breaks trend line
-LTC block reward halving is in two months
-LTC might be able to solve the block size debate, or benefit from BTC having a hard fork
-general alt coin pump - PPC, Doge, NMC
-LTC pump for all of the reasons above

LTC shorts only up slightly from 119k to 132k on BFX.  But still you have to be very brave to short a bubble. And this is minus shorters who were margin called. So this could be an indicator that we're near the end.
BTC longs (and LTC longs) down - with USD swap falling from $28.8 million to $28.3 million.


I'm considering doubling down on my short. But I really cannot handle the volatility!  In retrospect, I should have kept my original position to half its size.

...

On the fundamentals front, I know how everyone loves banks!  Blockchain could save banks (and hopefully customers) billions
http://www.coindesk.com/santander-blockchain-tech-can-save-banks-20-billion-a-year/

[nrd525]

Some evidence of a coordinated LTC pump.  Two big rises at "10:00" (June 13, and June 16) and two at approximately "0:00".

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/ltccny

First time, the 10:00 pump came first. Second time the 0:00 pump came first.

Or it could just be Chinese prime trading hours?  
10:00 (my time) is 10pm in China, and 0:00 is noon.  10pm seems late - unless it is young people who like to stay up late (like whale club).

[nrd525]

LTC/USD walls at BTCe and Bitfinex are showing lots of resistance (and on BFX the LTC/BTC is showing milder resistance as well - which means people expect BTC to outperform LTC).    OKcoin LTC wall is more equally balanced and slightly bullish.

Of course in the past 24 hours, we've been breaking lots of LTC walls.

I think LTC is heading back to $1.80, but what do I know =)

[nrd525]

The BTC-e Ask wall went from 50k to 16k before the current LTC price surge.  6 AM in China. You'd think they be tired from last night's action!

China has a 4% premium on LTC over US markets.  China also has a 2% premium on BTC.

[Morecoin Freeman]

LTC pump is ridiculous. I was really close to buying at 1.8 with ~30k USD.
Would have earned me well over 15k USD within 72 hours, damn!

[bigtimespaghetti]

LTC pump is ridiculous. I was really close to buying at 1.8 with ~30k USD.
Would have earned me well over 15k USD within 72 hours, damn!

Yep, it does seem rather obvious. There seems to be some exuberence coming into btc, perhaps this is bleeding over into ltc as well.

[nrd525]

The general alt-coin rally continues.  LTC is firm at $3 to $3.10.  PPC up 10%.  DOGE holding strong at only 10% below recent high.  NMC up 20%.  BC up 16%.

I'm wondering if anything big will happen at 6am when China wakes up?

Bitfinex swaps
BTC - 17,700 - up 1200 past 24 hours, just up off a 3 month low.
LTC - 172,000 - up 30,000 on June 17.

BTC-e has a big ASK wall for LTC/USD.  BFX, OkCoin, and Huobi all have more neutral walls.

If Bitcoin breaks into $260 it could get interesting. Or even if it holds $250 (USD, not Yuan - as the Chinese markets are already at $250).  Of course "interesting" means it might move as high as $270.  I wouldn't expect anything major.

[bigtimespaghetti]

The general alt-coin rally continues.  LTC is firm at $3 to $3.10.  PPC up 10%.  DOGE holding strong at only 10% below recent high.  NMC up 20%.  BC up 16%.

I'm wondering if anything big will happen at 6am when China wakes up?

Bitfinex swaps
BTC - 17,700 - up 1200 past 24 hours, just up off a 3 month low.
LTC - 172,000 - up 30,000 on June 17.

BTC-e has a big ASK wall for LTC/USD.  BFX, OkCoin, and Huobi all have more neutral walls.

If Bitcoin breaks into $260 it could get interesting. Or even if it holds $250 (USD, not Yuan - as the Chinese markets are already at $250).  Of course "interesting" means it might move as high as $270.  I wouldn't expect anything major.

What would be classed as major? Holding above $300?

[nrd525]

Major moves - I'm thinking Bitcoin should be at $300 going to $400.  If not this year, then at least in 2016.  But I'm heavily biased towards the price exceeding my cost-basis.

In other news, two days ago I shorted another 100 LTC at 3.07, and 100 at 3.12 -- for a total short of 1000 LTC.  Am I moving the market? =)
I thought about "doubling down", but the level of risk is just too high.  And I really don't understand LTC dynamics. Its volatility is somewhere between BTC and the really crazy minor altcoins like DOGE or PPC.

I also reinforced my margin, making it both extremely unlikely that it will be called and extremely painful if it happens.   

Currently not planning on selling LTC until it drops to $1.50-$1.90.  But that might change.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Major moves - I'm thinking Bitcoin should be at $300 going to $400.  If not this year, then at least in 2016.  But I'm heavily biased towards the price exceeding my cost-basis.

In other news, two days ago I shorted another 100 LTC at 3.07, and 100 at 3.12 -- for a total short of 1000 LTC.  Am I moving the market? =)
I thought about "doubling down", but the level of risk is just too high.  And I really don't understand LTC dynamics. Its volatility is somewhere between BTC and the really crazy minor altcoins like DOGE or PPC.

I also reinforced my margin, making it both extremely unlikely that it will be called and extremely painful if it happens.   

Currently not planning on selling LTC until it drops to $1.50-$1.90.  But that might change.

Well nrd525, good luck with those trades. I didn't have the balls to short on that last parabola a few days back, would have been sitting on a tidy profit otherwise.

[Morecoin Freeman]

Currently not planning on selling LTC until it drops to $1.50-$1.90.

You mean 'not planning on buying LTC until it drops to'?
Anyway, best of luck with your short positions.
I didn't have the balls to anticipate this wild action in LTC.

[nrd525]

Currently not planning on selling LTC until it drops to $1.50-$1.90.

You mean 'not planning on buying LTC until it drops to'?
Anyway, best of luck with your short positions.
I didn't have the balls to anticipate this wild action in LTC.

Yes, you are correct.  I'd be closing my short position, so it is buying =)

More like you are too smart to try to short or go long on wild speculation =)

Looks like the LTC bubble is over.  We'll see.


Are there any good books or first-hand accounts on how pumping works?
I would expect a lot of problems. For instance, if you have a group of people and you agree to pump LTC from $2 to $3 - then all the pumpers would be tempted to undercut each other. So they'd sell at $2.95, $2.90, and eventually you'd have no pump at all.
Maybe it relies upon having a single actor capable of doing the pump themselves and attracting momentum traders.  I'm guessing the whale pumper tries to make money off the momentum traders.

[nrd525]

BFX USD swaps up $1.36 million in the past 24 hours to $29.6 million - highest since August 2014.
At this rate we could see a USD swap rate spike to 0.1% or more in the next week (which is good because the swap rate normally is in a perpetual decline until it spikes, and I'm lending out).

My LTC short is looking slightly less crazy. Still down $600 and 29%.

PPC is down, but hasn't crashed to pre-pump levels. General alt-coin pump is still pretty strong.

[RoadTrain]

I'd be very careful with shorting alts right now. I still remember how it burned me in 2013 when LTC went to $48
Though I don't expect such a pump to happen, but I didn't expect it back then as well