Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on[Havelock]

[btcboston]

In one day, we already have 1.2 btc from slush's pool.
That is 1/5 of what we mined the previous 3 months?

The increased accountability for the future is fine, but we need clarity on the past as well.
So far, you have not addressed yet the fact that the October-November dividend was only 10-20% of the expected dividend.
I hope you will explain this, using all means necessary to get there.
Showing all payout addresses is a start.

It's very obvious that Garrett took the extra BTC, otherwise, he would have given some sort of response by now, a full week after we raised what should have been a very simple question.

BTC price went past $1000 and he got greedy.

I kind of feel like an idiot now for having trusted him despite his history here on this site.

[1714135041]

1714135041

[1714135041]

1714135041

[stabs]

Is this finals week?  Maybe we can expect some additional attention to COG until classes resume?

[superresistant]

What about tomorrow, how is the next hardware going ? Any news ?

[Garr255]

I do not have the addresses connected to the BTC-TC Cognitive account, and cannot get to them because we all can't log into BTC-TC any more.

It should be no problem contacting Burnside to figure out which adresses were connected to the Cognitive account, in case you really have no adress on file.

Please send Burnside an email yourself, using this post as my authorization for him to release it to you. This way I cannot lie and give you a different address.

What about tomorrow, how is the next hardware going ? Any news ?

The 28TH of new hardware is on schedule for January delivery, and arrangements for power are underway

[superresistant]

The 28TH of new hardware is on schedule for January delivery, and arrangements for power are underway

Yes ! 

[medicine]

From post #1754 page 88

A financials report will come quarterly starting December 2nd, and the second one being released on January 1st.

Was this report ever completed?

The last dividend in question looks like it was sent out November 29th.  I assume from the comments, this dividend was released through BTC-TC and now some address is missing?

The full dividend minus the reinvestment fund must have originated from somewhere, from some address under your (Garret) control.  It would have had to been withdrawn from what ever mining pool we were mining at at the time.  We can start with that address and track it from there.

I don't think there is any need to go searching for some address related to BTC TC that may or may not exist.  Am I wrong here?

Finally from post #1427 page 72

Yesterday, I placed an order for Cognitive from CoinTerra! I negotiated a discounted rate so we were able to purchase 14 2th/s boxes for a total hashrate of 28th/s, to be delivered in January!

For added protection, I signed a contract with CoinTerra that includes: "If delivery is beyond January 31 2014, for every thirty days late CoinTerra is in delivery of hardware, CoinTerra shall deliver an additional 30% of the total
hashpower agreed to in this contract. if no hardware is delivered within 180 days after January
31, a full refund shall be made to Cognitive."

As stabs first brought up in post #1430 Coin Terra is under no obligation to deliver this order.  There is no repercussion for not delivering this order.  This basically a loan at 0% which can last for up to 180 days after January 31st 2013. 

I was very positive about this venture for a long time, but there are too many question marks and not enough answers.

[pascal257]

I do not have the addresses connected to the BTC-TC Cognitive account, and cannot get to them because we all can't log into BTC-TC any more.

It should be no problem contacting Burnside to figure out which adresses were connected to the Cognitive account, in case you really have no adress on file.

Please send Burnside an email yourself, using this post as my authorization for him to release it to you. This way I cannot lie and give you a different address.

I contacted him. Thanks.

[theterabyte]

Thanks pascal, please share your findings (and let us know if you need any help analyzing the results - hopefully we can figure out whatever we need from the public blockchain once we have an address to start at).

[Garr255]

From post #1754 page 88

A financials report will come quarterly starting December 2nd, and the second one being released on January 1st.

Was this report ever completed?

The last dividend in question looks like it was sent out November 29th.  I assume from the comments, this dividend was released through BTC-TC and now some address is missing?

The full dividend minus the reinvestment fund must have originated from somewhere, from some address under your (Garret) control.  It would have had to been withdrawn from what ever mining pool we were mining at at the time.  We can start with that address and track it from there.

I don't think there is any need to go searching for some address related to BTC TC that may or may not exist.  Am I wrong here?

Finally from post #1427 page 72

Yesterday, I placed an order for Cognitive from CoinTerra! I negotiated a discounted rate so we were able to purchase 14 2th/s boxes for a total hashrate of 28th/s, to be delivered in January!

For added protection, I signed a contract with CoinTerra that includes: "If delivery is beyond January 31 2014, for every thirty days late CoinTerra is in delivery of hardware, CoinTerra shall deliver an additional 30% of the total
hashpower agreed to in this contract. if no hardware is delivered within 180 days after January
31, a full refund shall be made to Cognitive."

As stabs first brought up in post #1430 Coin Terra is under no obligation to deliver this order.  There is no repercussion for not delivering this order.  This basically a loan at 0% which can last for up to 180 days after January 31st 2013. 

I was very positive about this venture for a long time, but there are too many question marks and not enough answers.

CoinTerra will indeed ship this order regardless of the loophole in their contract. They have every incentive too, because their reputation will be tarnished if we make it public that they abused their contract like this.

[ryan1894]

When will FIMB be released?

[theterabyte]

Just to re-analyze the diff numbers...

Previously, I predicted:
Difficulty at the end of January (projected) => 268mil * ( 1.41**8 ) => 4187mil

Now it is 908mil @ Dec 13th.  The last diff interval was 12.6 days, so lets call it 12 for fudge factor.  The last diff increase was 28.4%.

EDIT: I misread the date on my watch, LOL, it's the 10th, but shifting everything back 3 days doesn't impact anything significantly.

Dec 13 => 25 => Jan 6th => 18th => 30th

Using the last diff increase as a lower bound, 35% as a middle, and 50% as an upper bound, we get:

Difficulty at the end of January (low projected) => 908mil * ( 1.284**4 ) => 2468mil
Difficulty at the end of January (middle projected) => 908mil * ( 1.35**4 ) => 3015mil
Difficulty at the end of January (pessimistic projected) => 908mil * ( 1.50**4 ) => 4596mil

Keep in mind 50% per difficulty adjustment means the network increases over 225% per month, which is probably (i hope) not going to happen even with cointerra, knc, and VMC dumping their hardware in January.

I now consider the end-of-January diff being under 4 billion to be a "somewhat safe bet", and under 3 billion to be "possible but unlikely".  Time will tell how accurate my projections are.

keep in mind that if we receive our hardware at 4.2bil, I calculated, cog will be earning ~24.38BTC/week which means first week divs should be 0.001BTC/week per share (at 26420 shares, presuming that COG.F and COG.F2 convert).  This historically, mining shares have been worth a valuation such that their instantaneous annualized return is between 20 and 30%.

EDIT2: To clarify, "instantaneous annualized return" is a metric I birthed straight from my asshole.  But I think it is instructive, since actual annualized return estimates are complete bullshit when the "coins produced" decrease by 30% every 12 days unless the corp is constantly buying hardware.

EDIT: to demonstrate what I mean, AsicMiner is currently 0.31BTC/share and the last div was 0.00199, 0.00199*52/0.31 = 33% instantaneous annualized yield.

0.001*52/0.20 => 0.26BTC/share.
0.001*52/0.30 => 0.173BTC/share

EDIT: Current analysis for COG is 0.05BTC/share, last div is 0.000242, 0.000242*52/0.05 => 25.2% instantaneous annualized yield, but that doesn't take into account the hashing power that arrives in January.

It seems the only reasonable explanation for COG's current very-low share price is uncertainty and lack of trust/transparency.  I don't think people distrust cointerra.

[superresistant]

Just to re-analyze the diff numbers...
(...)
It seems the only reasonable explanation for COG's current very-low share price is uncertainty and lack of trust/transparency.  I don't think people distrust cointerra.

I agree with your analysis. I could be possible that some people spread FUD to get very cheap share.

[theterabyte]

Finally, for those interested in the time between now and then, eagerly watching the new transparent deposit addresses, here are the expectations:

assuming ~870GH/s, diff 908mil, 2% pool fees, we get:

 1/(908.0*1000*1000*(2**32)/(870*1000*1000*1000)/60/60/24/7) blocks/week *25btc/block *0.98profit => 3.306 BTC/week expected. Since 50% goes to growth fund, that is 1.65BTC/week, or 0.000159 BTC/share (assuming 10420 shares).

At the previous diff, the calculation was 0.000204, and the actual div paid last week was 0.000242, so presumably we had good luck or my GH estimation is low.  I still don't know of a good way to calculate probability distributions to say how likely it is our diff is 20% higher or 50% lower than expected over 1 week, 1 month, etc. but I am looking into it.

EDIT: Oh, the other explanation for 0.000242 instead of 0.000204 is maybe garr didn't pay divs to unclaimed shares and let the claimed ones absorb the extra, if there were ~8800 shares the expectation would be 0.000241, or maybe it is a combination of ~9500 shares and also some good luck...

[MilkyLep]

I don't think people distrust cointerra.

I almost wanted to believe the rest of your post. Until I read that last sentence.

I realize numbers don't lie, but numbers based on likelihood and possibilities sure as hell mislead. Don't take this as an attack theterabyte, your calculations and posts are beyond warranted and necessarily.

Concerning mining addresses as well as financial statements 10 days past due, the blockchain does not lie. However we all know how easy it is to manipulate. Somethings awry, and answers aren't being provided for a very specific reason.

And that whole hold Cointerra accountable approach? I can't find the appropriate "WTF" statement(s) to debate with you how naive it sounds.


I rarely bother to ask, but since I haven't seen him around lately ; Goat, as a large shareholder what is your current take on the situation? It seems like you've had the closest relationship throughout Cognitive's history.

[theterabyte]

I don't think people distrust cointerra.

I almost wanted to believe the rest of your post. Until I read that last sentence.

...ok. that's fair.  Lemme *slightly* modify that statement.  "I don't think cognitive investors that bought cognitive when garr was talking about our upcoming cointerra deal have any reason to trust cointerra less now than they did at that time."  The cointerra "equation" hasn't really changed - but the impression of COG itself probably has.  I merely mean to say it is the most likely explanation, rather that worries about cointerra screwing COG.

If you disagree, however, perhaps there is worrying news from cointerra I am not aware of?  It is pretty easy to miss things like that, people don't like to talk about bad news.

[alincoln]

When will FIMB be released?

+1

[Tafelpoot]

One month delay for cointerra and our shares go down by about 30 pct... There hasn't been a single ASIC-generation miner yet that was delivered on time.

[iCEBREAKER]

One month delay for cointerra and our shares go down by about 30 pct... There hasn't been a single ASIC-generation miner yet that was delivered on time.

Au contraire, HashFast is set to deliver their first batch before the Dec 31 guaranteed delivery date.

Giving money to Cointerra was a terrible mistake.   

[mannybitcoins]

One month delay for cointerra and our shares go down by about 30 pct... There hasn't been a single ASIC-generation miner yet that was delivered on time.

Au contraire, HashFast is set to deliver their first batch before the Dec 31 guaranteed delivery date.

Giving money to Cointerra was a terrible mistake.   

Different tenses brah.

[iCEBREAKER]

One month delay for cointerra and our shares go down by about 30 pct... There hasn't been a single ASIC-generation miner yet that was delivered on time.

Au contraire, HashFast is set to deliver their first batch before the Dec 31 guaranteed delivery date.

Giving money to Cointerra was a terrible mistake.   

Different tenses brah.

Chill out brohemian, you're way too... tense.