[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

For sure rare 3 months ago  predicted Monero at $100 at end of September. Most thought HW wallet, mobile wallet and multisig will be the triggers.

Awesome call, that was.  Lately I am more focussed on the (easier, on assumptions) longer-term estimation task:

Monero has consistently repriced higher with each positive development, and the number and scope of bullish developments in the pipe is increasing, not decreasing, as the price, hash and community all rise in tandem.  It's the foothills of the exponential phase of adoption here.  After, comes the super-exponential expansion phase, as n log n network effect  kicks in, composed with a FOMO function.  Eventually, the market saturates at a given development level, FOMO dies, and price pulls back, but until XMR denominates at least 10% of the 22 trillion  USD dark global GDP and at least 1% of the 80 trillion light GDP (for PQ = 3 tUSD) the cycle keeps repeating in a larger S-curve on a scale of ca. 10 years.  If the velocity is an historically typical 5, the market cap of XMR should top out in the neighborhood of 600 bn USD, and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012.

(The reason why BTC is over 4k now is not the size of the BTC economy, but the outsized reserve demand, which implies a much lower velocity of money.)

In the longer run (multiple decades) XMR value should grow with the global economy, so holding it will be like holding the DJ Global Index, in terms of future expectation at any given moment, which should be modulated by some XMR-specific risk factor.

I covet your enthusiasm currently.  I am discouraged by the deflating XMR/BTC status.

S.O.P. for Monero.
Look at what just happened.  Early August, XMR lost about a third of its value in less than a week.  Bet you were discouraged then, too.  Guess what?  Super bear trap.
Immediately the xmr/btc exchange rate proceeded to triple in a matter of days.
Don't let Composite Man psych you out.
Feel like selling?  May be your chance to buy.
I get pretty annoyed myself at the way the price seems to move with the deliberate attention of faking you out or just pissing you off totally.
Yeah, it goes down like a lead balloon at times.  Look at what happens if you hold on, though.

Yeah, I've been around for a while...  I'm familiar with the way XMR can be very fickle from a speculation perspective.

It is what it is, and at times it is tiresome.

But emotions are exactly as fickle as markets.  I've learned to keep them in check.  I can control emotions even if I cannot markets.  But I will not pretend I do not believe XMR is exceedingly undervalued against XBT and the current value of USD.

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[Hueristic]

Snowden is there to acclimatize and lead the sheep to the slaughter house, he didn't told us anything we didn't already know and is actively supporting backdoored crypto (Zcash) and mocking legitimate ones (Monero).

https://www.chicagoreader.com/Bleader/archives/2013/06/25/did-edward-snowden-tell-us-anything-we-didnt-already-know

OK, did the link get changed? I see nothing in this article?

Did Edward Snowden tell us anything we didn't already know?
Posted By Michael Miner on 06.25.13 at 12:54 PM

Edward Snowden

    AFP PHOTO / THE GUARDIAN
    Edward Snowden

It doesn’t get the emphasis it deserves in our public schools, but if the USA is the world’s greatest nation the founding fathers' low view of humanity deserves a large share of the credit. I thought about this Sunday evening as I listened to BackStory’s excellent "The Road to Civil War" on WBEZ. We teach our kids idealism; but it was the idealism of the young bucks of the south, who believed declaring independence from the Yankee oppressors and then giving them what-for in battle was the only road an honorable man could travel, that led to wholesale slaughter (especially of themselves), economic ruin, and—against all odds—the death of slavery. The south’s wise old heads preached against secession; they argued that the indulgent U.S. Constitution, which inflated the region's power in Congress by declaring every slave three-fifths of a human being for the purpose of allotting representatives, was the best guarantor that slavery would continue. (Three-fifths was actually a compromise; the slave states had wanted each slave to be counted as an entire person.)

The Constitution is a mulligan stew of checks and balances and concessions and occasional incomprehensibilities (gotta love that Second Amendment!) written—as nobler charters are not—with due respect for human nature. The principle of human nature that the founding fathers did not lose sight of is that no matter who cuts the pie, the biggest appetite winds up eating most of it. (I choose this metaphor because I really like pie and I know all the tricks, from eyeing the pieces as they're lifted from the pie pan and modestly deferring to the ladies or the guests or the youngsters or what-have-you until the one you have your eye on comes along, to sidling back to the counter for seconds, to bussing the dishes in order to help yourself to the remains.) "A Republic, madam, if you can keep it," said Benjamin Franklin when asked at the close of the Constitutional Convention in 1787 what kind of government they'd come up with. Franklin's point was that we the people are damn fools and our own worst enemies, and there was no guarantee that some charismatic autocrat decked out in a purple sash wouldn't wind up back in the saddle vacated by George III. But the Founding Fathers had done their damnedest to create a government so balky that maybe the future's wannabe Napoleons wouldn't bother.

Down through the ages, Americans expect the best and assume the worst. Idealism and cynicism speak in voices so similar it can be impossible to tell the difference. These days when I open Mozilla Firefox I encounter a notice that declares:

Security and privacy are not optional. Stand with a broad coalition to demand that the NSA stop watching us: stopwatching.us

When we follow the link we come across a letter to Congress we are invited to sign. It says, in part:

    As reported [originally, in the Washington Post and the Guardian], the U.S. government is extracting audio, video, photographs, e-mails, documents, and connection logs that enable analysts to track a person's movements and contacts over time. As a result, the contents of communications of people both abroad and in the U.S. can be swept in without any suspicion of crime or association with a terrorist organization.

    Leaked reports also published by the Guardian and confirmed by the Administration reveal that the NSA is also abusing a controversial section of the PATRIOT Act to collect the call records of millions of Verizon customers. The data collected by the NSA includes every call made, the time of the call, the duration of the call, and other "identifying information" for millions of Verizon customers, including entirely domestic calls, regardless of whether those customers have ever been suspected of a crime. The Wall Street Journal has reported that other major carriers, including AT&T and Sprint, are subject to similar secret orders.

    This type of blanket data collection by the government strikes at bedrock American values of freedom and privacy. This dragnet surveillance violates the First and Fourth Amendments of the U.S. Constitution, which protect citizens' right to speak and associate anonymously, guard against unreasonable searches and seizures, and protect their right to privacy.

The humongous list of signatories includes the American Civil Liberties Union and the American Library Association.

This surveillance was revealed to the Post and Guardian by former NSA computer analyst Edward Snowden, who at this writing is a fugitive somewhere between Hong Kong and Ecuador. The idealistic reaction against it differs dramatically from the comments of pragmatists who like to think they look at all sides. Said President Obama, "One of the things we are going to have to discuss and debate is how are we striking this balance between the need to keep the American people safe and our concerns about privacy. Because there are some tradeoffs involved. I welcome this debate. I think it's healthy for our democracy." Former Tribune editor Jack Fuller wrote in the Tribune, "The Obama administration . . . has gone out of its way to include Congress and the [Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court] in the [intelligence-gathering] process. It has allowed ambition to counteract ambition, and there is plenty of ambition around for the purpose. The administration should have been a lot more open with the public, and it will have to be now. . . . But the terrorist threats from outside are real. And the constitutional idea of separation of powers is still the best defense against the threats from government."

The problem with these sentiments is that they don't assume the worst. The open letter on Firefox harkening back to the protections laid down in the Constitution by the founding fathers is in the best tradition of high-minded American cynicism. It presumes that when given half a chance, people behave badly.

How can Americans trust the government with our personal data when we don't even trust ourselves? Let's face it: the dossiers of the lives we lead contain some really choice stuff (well, we like to think so). In the wrong hands—OMG! So who cares if the government insists it has absolutely no interest in the so-called metadata it vacuums up about who we call and e-mail and what websites we visit?. If the government has it, sooner or later somebody will give it a look-see. That's human nature. We love to snoop and we love to blab. And, if we're in a position to, we love to hold a little something over someone else.

The most recent issue of the New Republic contains an infuriating exposé of a multi-billion-dollar data-collating platform called the Distributed Common Ground System (DCGS-A). According to reporter Robert Draper, DCGS-A has almost completely failed to do what it was created to do in terms of supplying American forces with real-time intelligence on the enemy in Afghanistan. It's a failure that Draper tells us can be measured in lost lives as well as money. To make matters worse, the Pentagon and its contractors keep throwing good money after bad to maintain DCGS-A, while disdaining a far cheaper yet superior alternative called Palantir. Said a Draper source, "If you're one of the mediocre-to-poor engineers working for the U.S. Army and you've developed the all-source tools within DCGS-A and have produced a Studebaker, and here comes this Ferrari that costs less than your Studebaker, it's an existential crisis! Of course you're threatened!"

Draper's revelations made me a lot angrier than Snowden's, but nobody's accusing Draper or his sources of treason. Why? Snowden gets the Ethel and Julius Rosenberg treatment (NSA director Keith Alexander told the House Intelligence Committee that Snowden's disclosures did "irreversible and significant damage to this nation") because he apparently betrayed something vital—I guess a covenant allowing the government to do what it thinks it needs to do so long as it doesn't call attention to itself doing it. All Draper reported was a massive waste of blood and treasure.

This waste is strong evidence that the national defense is riddled with venality and incompetence. But as the idealists denouncing NSA already assumed that, so what? And as the pragmatists defending NSA like to suppose the national defense is in mature, competent hands, they're not interested either. An abstract outrage is always more outrageous than a real one.

Tags: U.S. Constitution, BackStory, Civil War, Benjamin Franklin, the Founding Fathers, National Security Agency, Washington Post, the Guardian, Chicago Tribune, the New Republic, Edward Snowden, NSA surveillance, President Obama, Jack Fuller, American Civil Liberties Union, American Library Association, Distributed Common Ground System, Palantir, Robert Draper, Keith Alexander, Image

Snowden coming out against Monero in favor of ZCash is, to me, just one more nudge towards his whole situation being a "controlled opposition psy-op" entirely from the get-go

It's a shame, really... philosophically/politically I'd prefer to believe that he's the real deal.

But unfortunately that's been looking more and more unlikely as time goes on, the more he opens his mouth...

At first he definitely was the real deal. But imagine his situation: he became known and his opinions started to be perceived as something to listen to. Once this happened surely many different forces have been trying to use his voice for their purposes. Maybe he gave in and took the money, maybe they forced him somehow, maybe they tricked and manipulated him and he truly believes what he is saying. Remember he is still just a human, a fugitive, a guest in quite a horrible (human rights wise) country that he basically cannot even leave (nowhere to go). The point is we don't know what's really going on with him and accusing him of bad intentions doesn't seem fair to me.

I agree, I believe his original decisions and actions were altruistic but because of the predicament he is currently in he cannot be trusted to be telling the facts for if nothing else the regime he is under could be manipulating those facts. Or he may be under pressure, survival instinct is as basic as they get.


***************************

And What  do you guys think was up with the Huge dump earlier?

[alay1388]

I just fulfilled my dream to reach a specific percentage of the current bitcoin supply, it took me just a little more than a year. Smiley
My next goal is to accumulate 0,1% of the current monero supply. For that, i will buy daily for 12$(that is everything i can afford  Roll Eyes). It's not much, and all you whales will make fun of me, but it adds up over time and I still really like the coin and the people who are involved in it. (and obviously the conversations in this topic)

Overall I think the current price is a great long term opportunity. Especially if you keep in mind the slowing inflation, the future development milestones and the need for anonymity.

[candymonkey]

I don't like looking at potential security issues from a perspective of probability. That's a recipe for disaster. The compromise of masternode data WILL be an issue if darkcoin becomes popular and valuable enough. It's a design issue that wasn't fully thought out.

A similar concern with Monero (and any PoW coin) is mining centralization: if an entity can control the 2 or 3 largest mining pools, then the entire network can be compromised. It's a problem that definitely will become an issue in the future if not addressed. Again, I think this is fundamental design issue with the winner-take-all approach to block rewards. I don't have a solution Cheesy

[Hueristic]

Well Polo is screwing me again, it's charging me for a long and then when the order gets filled and the price moves in my direction it closes the order without ever posting it on the order books and charges me the fees. Did it to me 3 times in a row while i was trying to long on the way back up from .0020

Code:

XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01638344	-	0.00000003 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.00169205	-	0.00000001 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.00027502	-	0.00000001 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01106576	-	0.00000002 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01144622	-	0.00000005 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01867348	-	0.00000003 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01454396	-	0.00000006 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.00102994	-	0.00000001 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01255900	-	0.00000002 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01088991	-	0.00000005 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01144622	-	0.00000005 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	Sell	Settlement	0.02200084	0.00001545	0.00000000 BTC (0.25%)	0.00000033 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	Sell	Settlement	0.02200084	0.00000090	0.00000000 BTC (0.25%)	0.00000001 BTC	2017-10-01 00:03:54
	XMR/BTC	Sell	Settlement	0.02202894	0.00002587	0.00000000 BTC (0.25%)	0.00000056 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:44
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.00049566	-	0.00000001 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.02190299	-	0.00000006 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01663746	-	0.00000004 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.00133767	-	0.00000001 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01085425	-	0.00000005 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.02562392	-	0.00000007 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.04712974	-	0.00000012 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.04445034	-	0.00000011 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01492512	-	0.00000006 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.01490385	-	0.00000004 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	Sell	Settlement	0.02202894	0.00000090	0.00000000 BTC (0.25%)	0.00000001 BTC	2017-09-30 23:52:43
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.11817646	-	0.00000018 BTC	2017-09-30 23:35:08
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.03658513	-	0.00000006 BTC	2017-09-30 23:35:08
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.04265144	-	0.00000007 BTC	2017-09-30 23:35:08
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.02231584	-	0.00000004 BTC	2017-09-30 23:35:08
	XMR/BTC	-	Lending Fees	-	0.00055070	-	0.00000001 BTC	2017-09-30 23:35:08
	XMR/BTC	Sell	Settlement	0.02202885	0.00000090	0.00000000 BTC (0.25%)	0.00000001 BTC	2017-09-30 23:35:08
	XMR/BTC	Sell	Settlement	0.02202885	0.00001634	0.00000000 BTC (0.25%)	0.00000035 BTC	2017-09-30 23:35:08

[QuickBASIC]

Monerujo - Production Release v1.0 now on Google Play Store - by m2049r

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/73atah/update_monerujo_production_release_v10_now_on/

Oh great, an unofficial mobile wallet.
If this doesn't smell like a great scam to steal a shitload of wallets i don't know what does...
It's also nice because they can't just steal your Monero, they can steal every other crypto you have on your mobile as well, gotta love mobile wallets and the mobile system security.
Be warned.

No idea why mobile wallets even exist, I don't trust my andorid at all, everyone is clueless what the OS is doing and what vulnerabilities or even backdoors may lurk, why would you deposit cryptocurrency on such a device is beyond me.

You transfer a small amount to your mobile wallet for walking around money and keep the rest securely. Monero is meant to be used as cash. Do you walk around with your entire bank balance in cash? No. You put some small amount of cash in your wallet and replenish as needed. No security is perfect, so why keep all your eggs in any one basket.

[toty888]

For sure rare 3 months ago  predicted Monero at $100 at end of September. Most thought HW wallet, mobile wallet and multisig will be the triggers.

Awesome call, that was.  Lately I am more focussed on the (easier, on assumptions) longer-term estimation task:

Monero has consistently repriced higher with each positive development, and the number and scope of bullish developments in the pipe is increasing, not decreasing, as the price, hash and community all rise in tandem.  It's the foothills of the exponential phase of adoption here.  After, comes the super-exponential expansion phase, as n log n network effect  kicks in, composed with a FOMO function.  Eventually, the market saturates at a given development level, FOMO dies, and price pulls back, but until XMR denominates at least 10% of the 22 trillion  USD dark global GDP and at least 1% of the 80 trillion light GDP (for PQ = 3 tUSD) the cycle keeps repeating in a larger S-curve on a scale of ca. 10 years.  If the velocity is an historically typical 5, the market cap of XMR should top out in the neighborhood of 600 bn USD, and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012.

(The reason why BTC is over 4k now is not the size of the BTC economy, but the outsized reserve demand, which implies a much lower velocity of money.)

In the longer run (multiple decades) XMR value should grow with the global economy, so holding it will be like holding the DJ Global Index, in terms of future expectation at any given moment, which should be modulated by some XMR-specific risk factor.

Yeah, it goes down like a lead balloon at times.  Look at what happens if you hold on, though.

Like a Led Zeppelin?

Hahaha sorry I couldn't resist!!!!

[gembitz]

Snowden coming out against Monero in favor of ZCash is, to me, just one more nudge towards his whole situation being a "controlled opposition psy-op" entirely from the get-go

It's a shame, really... philosophically/politically I'd prefer to believe that he's the real deal.

But unfortunately that's been looking more and more unlikely as time goes on, the more he opens his mouth...

Yeah, Snowden is 100% a controlled disidence agent. He keeps working for the NSA. Only blind poeple fail to see that since the very beginning

new movie:  Snowden part II  "Da Shitcoin Conspiracy"       >.> rotflmfao

[phishead]

S.O.P. for Monero.
Look at what just happened.  Early August, XMR lost about a third of its value in less than a week.  Bet you were discouraged then, too.  Guess what?  Super bear trap.
Immediately the xmr/btc exchange rate proceeded to triple in a matter of days.
Don't let Composite Man psych you out.
Feel like selling?  May be your chance to buy.
I get pretty annoyed myself at the way the price seems to move with the deliberate attention of faking you out or just pissing you off totally.
Yeah, it goes down like a lead balloon at times.  Look at what happens if you hold on, though.

Yeah, I've been around for a while...  I'm familiar with the way XMR can be very fickle from a speculation perspective.

It is what it is, and at times it is tiresome.

But emotions are exactly as fickle as markets.  I've learned to keep them in check.  I can control emotions even if I cannot markets.  But I will not pretend I do not believe XMR is exceedingly undervalued against XBT and the current value of USD.

This just reminded me of this 10/10 post by the legendary AmericanPegasus two years ago; this kept me from doing stupid things when I was just getting introduced to crypto after I stumbled on /r/Monero... hopefully it will prevent some people from doing potentially stupid things right now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3mwx9g/if_you_want_to_understand_how_to_make_money/

In my early 20's, my primary goal in life had fully transitioned into "get laid" (like a good biological member of my species). At the time, there was no Tinder and online dating was seen as the habitat of the lowest of the low.

What was the Tinder of 2005? The club scene. (stay with me, we have a point here).

At my favorite club there was a sign at the front, "Don't be a sheep; NO ONE is busy at 10pm. Have a seat, have a drink, and be patient." I always admired this sign, and as me and my buddy Ramon navigated the complex world of convincing women in clubs that you were worth sleeping with, we were inadvertently learning game theory.

You see, on any given weekend night there is a certain amount of people that are going to "go out". This includes all manner of people and you really can't exert much control over how many people decide to 'go out' in a large enough city. This is best related to how much 'fiat' decides to enter the cryptocurrency universe. That's pretty much outside any individual speculators ability to control: you just have to hope that conditions slowly swell so that your city is an attractive place that people will want to party.

What can we control? We can control what bar we go to, and we can control how we present ourselves.

It's 9:30 pm: where are you headed? Let's extend the analogy a little bit: pretend all the clubs (you would actually want to party at) have a bouncer out front. To get into this club you're going to have to expend either money to bribe him or time to wait in line. The amount of effort/expense it takes to get through the door is a function of how busy and happening that particular club is.

Now let's say you want to win this 'game' by being seen as 'king of the club'. How do you do this? You come correct (wearing nice clothes). You accurately speculate about where the 'sheep' will flock to once the night kicks off in full swing. And you establish a respected and winning presence there early.

You do not (as that wonderful sign suggested) run from club to club wondering which one will get busy first. You don't care about flirting from asset to asset: your only concern is to position yourself properly in a winning one. The fundamentals will come into play: is this a place that, despite being currently pretty empty, will likely be attractive to lots of people once the night gets kicking? If so, that's where you set up your base. Get a table for cheap/free since there's no one there (remember, we win this particular game by being seen as important even though we are not) and get friendly with the staff since you have time to spare. If you really want to elevate your game, invite a few other people from your social network to hang out there with you - buzz builds buzz.

You might be wrong - that's the downside of taking risks. But if you make good decisions you will almost certainly be better off than the sheep who flirts from experience to experience trying to find the 'right one'. That sheep will spend more time in line (or money bribing their way past) than they will actually bathing in their prize.

So what's my tl;dr point here?

It's 10:00 dude. None of the clubs are busy right now. So get a fucking table, and get to know the bartender. Enjoy yourself before the crowds arrive, because it's gonna be one hell of a night and you do not want to be stuck in that line outside once this place gets in full swing.

[aminorex]

the winner-take-all approach to block rewards. I don't have a solution

As I understand it, ETH handles this by giving a (reduced) reward to "uncles" mined before the winner is commited. It is a significant decentralizing influence, AFAICT.  Personally, I think that being a viable CPU coin saves XMR from centralization of mining.  The barrier to entry for browser mining is so low, any moderately competent user of enscripten can roll one in a few hours.  I would be surprised if there wasn't one on GitHub already, in fact.

[ol92]

S.O.P. for Monero.
Look at what just happened.  Early August, XMR lost about a third of its value in less than a week.  Bet you were discouraged then, too.  Guess what?  Super bear trap.
Immediately the xmr/btc exchange rate proceeded to triple in a matter of days.
Don't let Composite Man psych you out.
Feel like selling?  May be your chance to buy.
I get pretty annoyed myself at the way the price seems to move with the deliberate attention of faking you out or just pissing you off totally.
Yeah, it goes down like a lead balloon at times.  Look at what happens if you hold on, though.

Yeah, I've been around for a while...  I'm familiar with the way XMR can be very fickle from a speculation perspective.

It is what it is, and at times it is tiresome.

But emotions are exactly as fickle as markets.  I've learned to keep them in check.  I can control emotions even if I cannot markets.  But I will not pretend I do not believe XMR is exceedingly undervalued against XBT and the current value of USD.

This just reminded me of this 10/10 post by the legendary AmericanPegasus two years ago; this kept me from doing stupid things when I was just getting introduced to crypto after I stumbled on /r/Monero... hopefully it will prevent some people from doing potentially stupid things right now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3mwx9g/if_you_want_to_understand_how_to_make_money/

In my early 20's, my primary goal in life had fully transitioned into "get laid" (like a good biological member of my species). At the time, there was no Tinder and online dating was seen as the habitat of the lowest of the low.

What was the Tinder of 2005? The club scene. (stay with me, we have a point here).

At my favorite club there was a sign at the front, "Don't be a sheep; NO ONE is busy at 10pm. Have a seat, have a drink, and be patient." I always admired this sign, and as me and my buddy Ramon navigated the complex world of convincing women in clubs that you were worth sleeping with, we were inadvertently learning game theory.

You see, on any given weekend night there is a certain amount of people that are going to "go out". This includes all manner of people and you really can't exert much control over how many people decide to 'go out' in a large enough city. This is best related to how much 'fiat' decides to enter the cryptocurrency universe. That's pretty much outside any individual speculators ability to control: you just have to hope that conditions slowly swell so that your city is an attractive place that people will want to party.

What can we control? We can control what bar we go to, and we can control how we present ourselves.

It's 9:30 pm: where are you headed? Let's extend the analogy a little bit: pretend all the clubs (you would actually want to party at) have a bouncer out front. To get into this club you're going to have to expend either money to bribe him or time to wait in line. The amount of effort/expense it takes to get through the door is a function of how busy and happening that particular club is.

Now let's say you want to win this 'game' by being seen as 'king of the club'. How do you do this? You come correct (wearing nice clothes). You accurately speculate about where the 'sheep' will flock to once the night kicks off in full swing. And you establish a respected and winning presence there early.

You do not (as that wonderful sign suggested) run from club to club wondering which one will get busy first. You don't care about flirting from asset to asset: your only concern is to position yourself properly in a winning one. The fundamentals will come into play: is this a place that, despite being currently pretty empty, will likely be attractive to lots of people once the night gets kicking? If so, that's where you set up your base. Get a table for cheap/free since there's no one there (remember, we win this particular game by being seen as important even though we are not) and get friendly with the staff since you have time to spare. If you really want to elevate your game, invite a few other people from your social network to hang out there with you - buzz builds buzz.

You might be wrong - that's the downside of taking risks. But if you make good decisions you will almost certainly be better off than the sheep who flirts from experience to experience trying to find the 'right one'. That sheep will spend more time in line (or money bribing their way past) than they will actually bathing in their prize.

So what's my tl;dr point here?

It's 10:00 dude. None of the clubs are busy right now. So get a fucking table, and get to know the bartender. Enjoy yourself before the crowds arrive, because it's gonna be one hell of a night and you do not want to be stuck in that line outside once this place gets in full swing.

I have read this post too in the past : sound, insightfull post with a very well chosen analogy.

[jimskiy]

so many people mining monero right now.. (include browser mining) this coin skyrocket its popularity so does with the price.. what next? will it beat eth in the future?

[amaral1977]

so many people mining monero right now.. (include browser mining) this coin skyrocket its popularity so does with the price.. what next? will it beat eth in the future?

Scroll up a bit. There have been plenty of posts  about this kind of speculation. I like the post where Aminorex informs us of our retirement year:) Something about surpassing ETH and then BTC:) With serenity and for me with some diversity, but with a strong aim on staking up XMR.

[guesswho1234]

you are all so positive about xmr and yet its tanking for weeks already

btc_xmr almost at 0.02 again

[Hueristic]

so many people mining monero right now.. (include browser mining) this coin skyrocket its popularity so does with the price.. what next? will it beat eth in the future?

ETH and XMR are not even competitors but yes I would expect within 5 years on the outside Monero will be #2 Cap and Eth will have pulled another boner that will cost it a huge portion of cap.

you are all so positive about xmr and yet its tanking for weeks already

btc_xmr almost at 0.02 again

These are called buying opportunities, you will regret not taking advantage mark my words.

[guesswho1234]

so many people mining monero right now.. (include browser mining) this coin skyrocket its popularity so does with the price.. what next? will it beat eth in the future?

ETH and XMR are not even competitors but yes I would expect within 5 years on the outside Monero will be #2 Cap and Eth will have pulled another boner that will cost it a huge portion of cap.

you are all so positive about xmr and yet its tanking for weeks already

btc_xmr almost at 0.02 again

These are called buying opportunities, you will regret not taking advantage mark my words.

dw im long on monero too but so farm im averaging down daily

just wondered about the optimism in here

[Surging Chaos]

Personally I think XMR > ETH in 1 year, XMR > BTC in 5 years.  That's my primary time-scale.

I can see XMR going past ETH in a year, but I'm not really too sure about XMR > BTC in 5 years. Remember back in the spring when ETH had the monster pump and it seemed like The Flippening was going to happen? Never did.

BTC for all of its flaws still has the network effect. And as we see in companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter, having a network effect on your side means that you can dominate the landscape even if your product is subpar.

[explorer]

Personally I think XMR > ETH in 1 year, XMR > BTC in 5 years.  That's my primary time-scale.

I can see XMR going past ETH in a year, but I'm not really too sure about XMR > BTC in 5 years. Remember back in the spring when ETH had the monster pump and it seemed like The Flippening was going to happen? Never did.

BTC for all of its flaws still has the network effect. And as we see in companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter, having a network effect on your side means that you can dominate the landscape even if your product is subpar.

There will be 'that moment' when the sheeple discover the hard way what fungibility is.  There is sub-par, and then there is catastrophically flawed.  The pace is picking up, but it seems to be like the frog in the pot.  Most will just boil.

[KeyJockey]

just wondered about the optimism in here

It's called Long-Term Investor point of view as opposed to short-term day-trader aka gambling point of view.

Is it really so hard to understand optimism of HODLers who bought their XMR at $7.00 (or $0.70 cents... or really even at $70.00?) who see today's price still nearly $100... and who believe an actual true fair market value will soon enough be above $10,000 per coin... seriously not CARING that the price is down a bit from a recent peak near $150-ish?

If/When you really understand exactly what Monero IS, and what it really MEANS... *then* these short-term price moves become just meaningless static white-noise.

The only sensible thing to do, at all, really... is just buy and hold as much as you can manage. At ANY price.

[Hueristic]

so many people mining monero right now.. (include browser mining) this coin skyrocket its popularity so does with the price.. what next? will it beat eth in the future?

ETH and XMR are not even competitors but yes I would expect within 5 years on the outside Monero will be #2 Cap and Eth will have pulled another boner that will cost it a huge portion of cap.

you are all so positive about xmr and yet its tanking for weeks already

btc_xmr almost at 0.02 again

These are called buying opportunities, you will regret not taking advantage mark my words.

dw im long on monero too but so farm im averaging down daily

just wondered about the optimism in here

Te optimism is from being here so long and watching this project progress, there is no alt community of devs that even comes close to the professionalism (as a whole FP), capabilities nor integrity of this team. Period

Just read this if you want to see the veiws of this team and how they protect the community even when we don't know they are doing it!

https://github.com/monero-project/meta/issues/85

Personally I think XMR > ETH in 1 year, XMR > BTC in 5 years.  That's my primary time-scale.

I can see XMR going past ETH in a year, but I'm not really too sure about XMR > BTC in 5 years. Remember back in the spring when ETH had the monster pump and it seemed like The Flippening was going to happen? Never did.

BTC for all of its flaws still has the network effect. And as we see in companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter, having a network effect on your side means that you can dominate the landscape even if your product is subpar.

There will be 'that moment' when the sheeple discover the hard way what fungibility is.  There is sub-par, and then there is catastrophically flawed.  The pace is picking up, but it seems to be like the frog in the pot.  Most will just boil.

Very true, I foresee (and always have) XMR as becoming adopted by the consumer while BTC moves more to a store of wealth and all the regulations that come with it.

...
It's called Long-Term Investor point of view as opposed to short-term day-trader aka gambling point of view.

Is it really so hard to understand optimism of HODLers who bought their XMR at $7.00 (or $0.70 cents... or really even at $70.00?) who see today's price still nearly $100... and who believe an actual true fair market value will soon enough be above $10,000 per coin... seriously not CARING that the price is down a bit from a recent peak near $150-ish?

If/When you really understand exactly what Monero IS, and what it really MEANS... *then* these short-term price moves become just meaningless static white-noise.

The only sensible thing to do, at all, really... is just buy and hold as much as you can manage. At ANY price.

QFT.