[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Kramerc]

From a technical point of view the situation shows mixed signals: https://i.imgur.com/W1oex0F.png

The bullish case, shown by my red count, has the support of some nice hidden bull divs both on the 4h AO and the RSI between the previous low and the current low. Also, a typical ABC flat correction off the top might soon complete and currently fibs show a very nice A=C. Even with the latest huge dump the volume is still declining from the initial sell-off, which also supports a correction rather than a change of trend. Finally, a 4th wave typically ends up somewhere in the area of the previous 4th wave of a lesser degree, so, as long as we don't make considerably deeper LLs, this might be the case.

The bearish case, shown by my blue count, suggests that the impulse up from the bottom has finished. Breaching the upward channel, going below the 4h SMA200 (pink) suggest that a change of trend has taken place. Other evidence can be found on the higher timeframe charts: on the weekly the candle is back inside the Bollinger Bands and has a more than great chance of closing inside - this usually means at least a test of the weekly sma20 (currently at around .002); on the daily the dumping accelerated once price went below sma20 and closed below the lower BBand - this means that further acceleration towards lower levels is possible.

Guidelines say to never expect the trend (bullish until now) to be broken until there is enough evidence to suggest that it happened. More and more signals start pointing that it might already have...

[Its About Sharing]

Doom or massive shakeout? Opinions?

This dump without a single bad news common its pure new $$$ getting in

Could it be ShapeShift's XMR hot wallet balance that got dumped? They got hacked and only BTC/ETH is up and running again, other alts back online over the next Weeks.

https://www.reddit.com/r/shapeshiftio/

Yeah, in an interview they said they only keep a small balance (relatively) in the hot wallet.
I wonder if it was that shorter or someone taking advantage of his position...

[TrueCryptonaire]

The interest rates are up in XMR markets.
Wether the big lender has withdrawn coins from the markets or there is increased demand for Monero denominated loans due to massive shorting.

Shorting hurts Monero's market cap in short term but once the loan is repaid the coins need to be purchased with interests so in the longer run (max 60 days) it will help XMR. Even if the short is held longer than 60 days (refinanced), in the refinancing period interests need to be repaid so some kind of buying pressure will be in the marketplace at spot price.

[Barney]

Anybody has some clues whether last big dump was a short or real coinz?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Anybody has some clues whether last big dump was a short or real coinz?

My guess is it was a short due to the spike in interest rates.
However, if I am wrong, the spike of interest rates was then due to lenders withdrawing the coins from lending markets.

[TrueCryptonaire]

someone just dumped over 3000 XMR borrowed from me... So there are shorters now in the market.
I am not worried at all since they will repay in one way or another (+ I get interest payments hopefully for entire period of 60 days).

Those shorters make me even more convinced to buy more coins. If the dumpers were whales I would be worried but knowing they are just a few random guys who can afford to throw their bitcoins towards betting XMR I am not worried but buy coins from them and lend those same coins back to them. 

[dEBRUYNE]

To anyone saying the charts look similiar to last year, you might want to take a look at the bigger picture (and the XMR/USD chart):

[pinky]

Train just derailed. We went up for some time, now it's time to go down for some time. I will hopefully buy back ~0.002.

[inca]

Train just derailed. We went up for some time, now it's time to go down for some time. I will hopefully buy back ~0.002.

I don't think so. Just a very badly disguised manipulative dump. Hang on did I say disguised? Lol.

I will continue to buy my monero. Bitcoin looks about to roll over anyway.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Train just derailed. We went up for some time, now it's time to go down for some time. I will hopefully buy back ~0.002.

I don't think so. Just a very badly disguised manipulative dump. Hang on did I say disguised? Lol.

I will continue to buy my monero. Bitcoin looks about to roll over anyway.

I agree. If the dump was done by whales I would be worried... As for now, when shorters dump by borrowing coins from the lenders. I speculate the shorters will get burned and XMR will have a steep spike upwards.

[TheKoziTwo]

Anybody has some clues whether last big dump was a short or real coinz?

My guess is it was a short due to the spike in interest rates.
However, if I am wrong, the spike of interest rates was then due to lenders withdrawing the coins from lending markets.

I wasn't here to watch the dump in real time, but I looked at bitcoinwisdom, and if we take a look at minute by minute by volume we have:

01:26 - 20228
01:27 - 1839
01:28 - 15.3
01:29 - 36
01:30 - 28.9
01:31 - 29.5
01:32 - 252
01:33 - 2044
01:34 - 507
01:35 - 22670
01:36 - 17765
01:37 - 75
01:38 - 13105
01:39 - 39714
01:40 - 29239
01:41 - 9252
01:42 - 5648
01:43 - 1542
01:44 - 11386
01:45 - 2292

So it took about 20 minutes in total. Could be multiple sellers, shorters and buyers combined. It does not seem to be one entity although whoever dumped the first ~20k probably started it.

[lolikop]

Panic buying will occur very soon

[TrueCryptonaire]

Anybody has some clues whether last big dump was a short or real coinz?

My guess is it was a short due to the spike in interest rates.
However, if I am wrong, the spike of interest rates was then due to lenders withdrawing the coins from lending markets.

I wasn't here to watch the dump in real time, but I looked at bitcoinwisdom, and if we take a look at minute by minute by volume we have:

01:26 - 20228
01:27 - 1839
01:28 - 15.3
01:29 - 36
01:30 - 28.9
01:31 - 29.5
01:32 - 252
01:33 - 2044
01:34 - 507
01:35 - 22670
01:36 - 17765
01:37 - 75
01:38 - 13105
01:39 - 39714
01:40 - 29239
01:41 - 9252
01:42 - 5648
01:43 - 1542
01:44 - 11386
01:45 - 2292

So it took about 20 minutes in total. Could be multiple sellers, shorters and buyers combined. It does not seem to be one entity although whoever dumped the first ~20k probably started it.

Image removed

Yup. Probably some percentage of the contents of the candles have also buying (I estimate around 30 % minimum).
20 minute dump to bids is a clear manipulative action. If the seller was a legitimate seller (s)he probably would have done the trade OTC or setting smaller ask ramps and support the bid-side or if the seller had hurry selling could have resulted better results if dumped in portions of 200-300 XMR per hour so that the buyers would have more time to send their slowly moving btc to Polo and give the markets for the seller.

[aminorex]

From a technical point of view ...

From a technical point of view XMR is heavily oversold, at present.

[slapper]

Yup. Where are the chartists who saw that coming? Which chart explained any of the recent dump? NONE. That's why TA etc are just dumb tools to dupe newbies (regardless of legitimacy of a coin). Overall this is coin has more slimeballs than even DASH and ETH combined. Normally I use crude language to go with this but it serves no purpose.

Just don't introduce anyone to XMR. BTC is the best one can do and that's what should be supported. Otherwise it's just dump a coin, come to this thread with a TA line to mock everyone, post negative sentiments when you want to buy, positive when you are ready to dump. Rinse, laugh and repeat.

Don't forget to post at what price you want to get back in. What price you want to sell right now. Everything out in the open, to steal from the guy posting before you in this very thread. Works everytime.

[rdnkjdi]

Yup. Where are the chartists who saw that coming? Which chart explained any of the recent dump? NONE. That's why TA etc are just dumb tools to dupe newbies (regardless of legitimacy of a coin). Overall this is coin has more slimeballs than even DASH and ETH combined. Normally I use crude language to go with this but it serves no purpose.

Just don't introduce anyone to XMR. BTC is the best one can do and that's what should be supported. Otherwise it's just dump a coin, come to this thread with a TA line to mock everyone, post negative sentiments when you want to buy, positive when you are ready to dump. Rinse, laugh and repeat.

Don't forget to post at what price you want to get back in. What price you want to sell right now. Everything out in the open, to steal from the guy posting before you in this very thread. Works everytime.

Bitcoin is a walking deadman.  No one knows it yet.

Not sure what will take it's place but it will be worth less two years from now than it is today.  It has both stagnant development (or development to benefit one primary company - not the protocol as a whole) and non functioning governance.  First mover advantage can't compensate in this arena with those problems.  Every year in crypto is like 20 in the real world.

Every other coin has it's problems.  Monero has it's ridiculous emissions curve & larger blockchain (although as time goes on the latter is less of a problem).  Ethereum has the massive presale which is effectively a 100% premine.  ZCash will have a 20% tax and is effectively centralized at the development arm and if they don't change anything will inherit all of bitcoins problems (minus ASICs).  IMO ETH, Monero and ZCash (when it's released) are the only things I'm interested in.

Despite the flaws of everything else - Dash is and always has been a joke.

[Dotto]

It seems 27ksat has to be retested and is not that probable that will hold. Betting at 23-25ksat as floor

[rangedriver]

Yup. Where are the chartists who saw that coming?

~0.0029 coincides the bottom of the channel (0.001200 thru 0.001904) with the 38.2% retracement (0.00097 to 0.0042).

That's a pretty strong package, but it if breaks, then the 50% retracement sits at 0.0025950.

(We don't want the 50% marker to break as that would be a technical reversal of everything built from 0.0009.)

[americanpegasus]

Yup. Where are the chartists who saw that coming? Which chart explained any of the recent dump? NONE. That's why TA etc are just dumb tools to dupe newbies (regardless of legitimacy of a coin). Overall this is coin has more slimeballs than even DASH and ETH combined. Normally I use crude language to go with this but it serves no purpose.

Just don't introduce anyone to XMR. BTC is the best one can do and that's what should be supported. Otherwise it's just dump a coin, come to this thread with a TA line to mock everyone, post negative sentiments when you want to buy, positive when you are ready to dump. Rinse, laugh and repeat.

Don't forget to post at what price you want to get back in. What price you want to sell right now. Everything out in the open, to steal from the guy posting before you in this very thread. Works everytime.

This movement was quite predictable, actually, if you looked at prior price action and took the warning signs to heart.  I suspect many people saw it coming but didn't want to shout it from the rooftops because then they would have been labeled as FUD'sters and it would have hastened its arrival.  I, and a couple of friends, saw it before it happened a few days ago and agreed not to take any margin long positions anytime soon lest we get #rekt. 
  
In fact, I've posted as least one silly graphic in this very thread which perfectly predicted that drop.  
  
Bottom line: Even though I am a permabull, I know nothing moves up in a straight line.  Corrections, sometimes even stomach churning ones are necessary at times.  That's why it's important not to margin long (unless you are willing to lose big) and to simply acquire spot XMR and then never let it go.  
  
In the long term I believe Monero is going extraordinarily higher, but this won't be the last drop of terror along the ride. 
 

It seems 27ksat has to be retested and is not that probable that will hold. Betting at 23-25ksat as floor

 
 
Dotto has consistently been one of the smartest posters in this thread.  Everyone need to take a look at Ethereum's price action during its first big correction, on the way towards its ascent. 
 
Right now we are seeing fear.  Soon comes capitulation as margin longs can no longer take the pain and get liquidated, and people holding even spot XMR throw in the towel.  I don't need to tell you I'm a permabull, and I don't need to tell you what a permabull feels during these moments of mass terror.... 
 
Fine, I'll tell you anyway: greed

[Kramerc]

Yup. Where are the chartists who saw that coming? Which chart explained any of the recent dump? NONE. That's why TA etc are just dumb tools to dupe newbies (regardless of legitimacy of a coin). Overall this is coin has more slimeballs than even DASH and ETH combined. Normally I use crude language to go with this but it serves no purpose.

Just don't introduce anyone to XMR. BTC is the best one can do and that's what should be supported. Otherwise it's just dump a coin, come to this thread with a TA line to mock everyone, post negative sentiments when you want to buy, positive when you are ready to dump. Rinse, laugh and repeat.

Don't forget to post at what price you want to get back in. What price you want to sell right now. Everything out in the open, to steal from the guy posting before you in this very thread. Works everytime.

Suer.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg14349808#msg14349808