[XMR] Monero Speculation

[iCEBREAKER]

my coin has stuck on middle of somewhere, i can not sold it, because it can make me loss  

when the rate will rise again like before?  

You might have to hold on to it for some months but you will be able to sell with a gain.  Many things in the works.

XMR has now resumed its "unofficial" 1:10 peg to ETH, I think there has to be a rational explanation for this, beyond market forces and invisible hand.

Leicester recently won the EPL championship despite 5000:1 odds, for some reason I suddenly thought about XMR.
What would William Hill offer as bettings odds for XMR reaching a certain price point in 2016?

Regardless, many here are basing their hopes on XMR replicating the performance of BTC in its early years.
One cannot just expect the future to be like the past, based on a statistical sample size of just 1.
BTC may very well be a one-off phenomenon, never to be repeated again.

Will XMR ever have a fairy-tale ending, just like Leicester?
Stay tuned, in 31 Dec 2020.

Soccer?  LOL WUT?

Impact of Leicester victory: a few dozen more Americans know how to pronounce "Leicester."

Monero user not affected!   


(Just kidding, point about black swans taken!)

[1714684825]

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[1714684825]

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[sandiman]

my coin has stuck on middle of somewhere, i can not sold it, because it can make me loss  

when the rate will rise again like before?  

You might have to hold on to it for some months but you will be able to sell with a gain.  Many things in the works.

XMR has now resumed its "unofficial" 1:10 peg to ETH, I think there has to be a rational explanation for this, beyond market forces and invisible hand.

Leicester recently won the EPL championship despite 5000:1 odds, for some reason I suddenly thought about XMR.
What would William Hill offer as bettings odds for XMR reaching a certain price point in 2016?

Regardless, many here are basing their hopes on XMR replicating the performance of BTC in its early years.
One cannot just expect the future to be like the past, based on a statistical sample size of just 1.
BTC may very well be a one-off phenomenon, never to be repeated again.

Will XMR ever have a fairy-tale ending, just like Leicester?
Stay tuned, in 31 Dec 2020.

Soccer?  LOL WUT?

Impact of Leicester victory: a few dozen more Americans know how to pronounce "Leicester."

Monero user not affected!   


(Just kidding, point about black swans taken!)

It is not because Leicester impact is so little in America that it is the same in the rest of the world (mostly speaking about Europa here) ...

[r0ach]

Regardless, many here are basing their hopes on XMR replicating the performance of BTC in its early years.
One cannot just expect the future to be like the past, based on a statistical sample size of just 1.
BTC may very well be a one-off phenomenon, never to be repeated again.

I've always felt you need a critical mass of distribution for this to occur.  A mining bubble that's still going to be widespread after it deflates.  It doesn't really feel like we'll ever see this again as we saw with the first wave of BTC, LTC, and Doge.  All the BTC believers already built huge GPU farms and sold them.  If Monero goes up, it's the equivalent of existing BTC users proof of burning their coins to another chain.  Normal consumers really have no incentive to particpate in CPU mined coins in the first place.

If a Monero mining bubble happened, the second it became extremely profitable, some ass that works at Dell or somewhere would turn his entire building into an after hours mining farm and completely destroy the marginal cost structure.  Same thing with botnets.  But the majority of distribution is already done, so looking for a Monero mining bubble to pop up out of nowhere doesn't seem that likely.  For Monero to go somewhere, there would either need to be a huge cannibalization of BTC userbase, or huge BTC bubble that just indirectly raises Monero.

The fact that neither Monero or Darkcoin seems to be catching on with dark markets makes me feel like BTC is a one-off black swan, never to be replicated in upward momentum again.  But, it's possible Monero can't gain any retail use solely due to lack of wallet, so I guess we'll see after that happens.

[iCEBREAKER]

Monero
wallet

[persiancat]

Regardless, many here are basing their hopes on XMR replicating the performance of BTC in its early years.
One cannot just expect the future to be like the past, based on a statistical sample size of just 1.
BTC may very well be a one-off phenomenon, never to be repeated again.

I've always felt you need a critical mass of distribution for this to occur.  A mining bubble that's still going to be widespread after it deflates.  It doesn't really feel like we'll ever see this again as we saw with the first wave of BTC, LTC, and Doge.  All the BTC believers already built huge GPU farms and sold them.  If Monero goes up, it's the equivalent of existing BTC users proof of burning their coins to another chain.  Normal consumers really have no incentive to particpate in CPU mined coins in the first place.

If a Monero mining bubble happened, the second it became extremely profitable, some ass that works at Dell or somewhere would turn his entire building into an after hours mining farm and completely destroy the marginal cost structure.  Same thing with botnets.  But the majority of distribution is already done, so looking for a Monero mining bubble to pop up out of nowhere doesn't seem that likely.  For Monero to go somewhere, there would either need to be a huge cannibalization of BTC userbase, or huge BTC bubble that just indirectly raises Monero.

The fact that neither Monero or Darkcoin seems to be catching on with dark markets makes me feel like BTC is a one-off black swan, never to be replicated in upward momentum again.  But, it's possible Monero can't gain any retail use solely due to lack of wallet, so I guess we'll see after that happens.

You strengthen the case of why XMR likely will never hit it big.

The only solution is to attract new users, and therefore, new fiat inflows into XMR.

This will expand the overall pie.

XMR cannot just pull in existing BTC owners, otherwise XMR will forever be inversely correlated with BTC.
XMR needs to stand on its own two feet, to depeg and decouple itself from all *coins.

Just like how BTC broke past US$1,000 after the Chinese bought BTC en masse, so does XMR need to attract new fund inflows.
Otherwise all we are doing is merely rotating ownership of coins from the same group of players, over and over again.

I wanted to use F1 racing (2016 season) as an analogy, but I think some fans of certain drivers will be none too pleased about it.

[smooth]

If a Monero mining bubble happened, the second it became extremely profitable, some ass that works at Dell or somewhere would turn his entire building into an after hours mining farm and completely destroy the marginal cost structure.

You are completely confused about the scale of things. Even at the current price, mining is the equivalent of 70K high end desktops. A building at Dell, etc. would be a drop in the bucket, even more so in a bubble environment when mining would get much, much bigger.

In fact if you look at power usage figures we're in the mid range of a Top 10 supercomputer now, which is a pretty good indication there is no centralized resource (or at least very few) that would overwhelm the network, especially during a bubble.

[GingerAle]

Regardless, many here are basing their hopes on XMR replicating the performance of BTC in its early years.
One cannot just expect the future to be like the past, based on a statistical sample size of just 1.
BTC may very well be a one-off phenomenon, never to be repeated again.

(snip)

The fact that neither Monero or Darkcoin seems to be catching on with dark markets makes me feel like BTC is a one-off black swan, never to be replicated in upward momentum again.  But, it's possible Monero can't gain any retail use solely due to lack of wallet, so I guess we'll see after that happens.

There's also the possibility that people are using Monero in dark markets.... with xmr.to, there's no way to tell.

[slapper]

Regardless, many here are basing their hopes on XMR replicating the performance of BTC in its early years.
One cannot just expect the future to be like the past, based on a statistical sample size of just 1.
BTC may very well be a one-off phenomenon, never to be repeated again.

I've always felt you need a critical mass of distribution for this to occur.  A mining bubble that's still going to be widespread after it deflates.  It doesn't really feel like we'll ever see this again as we saw with the first wave of BTC, LTC, and Doge.  All the BTC believers already built huge GPU farms and sold them.  If Monero goes up, it's the equivalent of existing BTC users proof of burning their coins to another chain.  Normal consumers really have no incentive to particpate in CPU mined coins in the first place.

If a Monero mining bubble happened, the second it became extremely profitable, some ass that works at Dell or somewhere would turn his entire building into an after hours mining farm and completely destroy the marginal cost structure.  Same thing with botnets.  But the majority of distribution is already done, so looking for a Monero mining bubble to pop up out of nowhere doesn't seem that likely.  For Monero to go somewhere, there would either need to be a huge cannibalization of BTC userbase, or huge BTC bubble that just indirectly raises Monero.

The fact that neither Monero or Darkcoin seems to be catching on with dark markets makes me feel like BTC is a one-off black swan, never to be replicated in upward momentum again.  But, it's possible Monero can't gain any retail use solely due to lack of wallet, so I guess we'll see after that happens.

You strengthen the case of why XMR likely will never hit it big.

The only solution is to attract new users, and therefore, new fiat inflows into XMR.

This will expand the overall pie.

XMR cannot just pull in existing BTC owners, otherwise XMR will forever be inversely correlated with BTC.
XMR needs to stand on its own two feet, to depeg and decouple itself from all *coins.

Just like how BTC broke past US$1,000 after the Chinese bought BTC en masse, so does XMR need to attract new fund inflows.
Otherwise all we are doing is merely rotating ownership of coins from the same group of players, over and over again.

A lot of great points made in these posts. Existing BTC owners have demonstrated that they are not willing to turn their BTCs into XMR, unless they actually multiply their BTC holdings in the process. It is just dumping (rotating?) into each other for last several months, utilizing this thread as a tool. Why will anyone new play this game of sharks is beyond belief. It is too late for GUI wallets to make any impact anymore.

I wanted to use F1 racing (2016 season) as an analogy, but I think some fans of certain drivers will be none too pleased about it.

Well, count me in as an audience. Would love to read this analogy

[DonYo]

[rpietila]

... It is too late for GUI wallets to make any impact anymore. ...

XMR is 2 years old, so it is unbelievable that it still has any value; when are the bagholders going to grasp the futility of the project, going against such odds after such a long time ??

Answer: in absence of better, the best will [have to] do.

[slapper]

... It is too late for GUI wallets to make any impact anymore. ...

XMR is 2 years old, so it is unbelievable that it still has any value; when are the bagholders going to grasp the futility of the project, going against such odds after such a long time ??

Answer: in absence of better, the best will [have to] do.

Market has factored "in absence of better", hence the current value. zcash is in the horizon and will be backed by people willing to burn their BTCs into zcash. I don't quite agree with the notion that "anonymous coins don't matter" verdict being passed around in these forums. It is more of a spite against the current best tech XMR and the hoodlums trolling on the forums.

[Hueristic]

This thread turned into a ghost town, probably until 2017, or next bubble.

Boo

GUI and XMR/USD pair is next logical steps. We don't need bubbles just progress, then there will be marketing and then adoption. It has been explained over and over that until the infrastructure is complete there should be no marketing. If you don't understand why then dig into the 2 major threads. Hype and marketing before the infrastructure is what causes bubbles and then a loss of faith. That loss of faith cannot be recovered (most times). So out of all the alts Monero is the only one doing it right. It's just too bad that the get rich quick speculators lose money in the mean time. I actually like the fact those gambling are getting burned, maybe they will not come back again.

The goal of this project is beyond the scope of all other alts. Either accept that or don't waste your time here.

Looks like our floor has risen this year. I have no issue with it staying in the 20's until Gui release. Dip into the 10's is opportunity for long term holders. All the kiddies looking to make xbox money need to goto ico scam coins.

[slapper]

This thread turned into a ghost town, probably until 2017, or next bubble.

Boo

GUI and XMR/USD pair is next logical steps. We don't need bubbles just progress. then there will be marketing and then adoption. It has been explained over and over that until the infrastructure is complete there should be no marketing. If you don't understand why then dog into the 2 major threads. Hype and marketing before the infrastructure is what causes bubbles and then a loss of faith. that loss of faith can sometimes (most) cannot be recovered. So out of all the alts Monero is the only one doing it right. So bad the get rich quick speculators loss money in the mean time. I actually like the fact those gambling are getting burned, maybe they will not come back again.

The goal of this project is beyond the scope of all other alts. Either accept that or don't waste your time here.

Looks like our floor has risen this year. I have no issue with it staying in the 20's until Gui release. Dip into the 10's is opportunity for long term holders. All the kiddies looking to make xbox money need to goto ico scam coins.

Really pisses me off that I can't curse you because smooth will delete it. It is really ***explitive** like you that made it possible for people to leave XMR. Weren't you bragging about "sold all my XMR" a few months ago? Brilliant and also "not in XMR for a whole year". You proved your point about being a sharp trader and a successful businessman. Now, no one is buying the crap anymore.

Just need a few more braggers to complete the plot. And maybe a few more who shout about not selling all the time.  

Bitcoin became successful because hoarding was encouraged for the first few years. in XMR it were seasoned BTC veterans just selling pipe dreams to noobs (just like any other altcoin) and it became an altcoin from that point forward despite being the best, much needed tech.

[Hueristic]

...

Bitcoin became successful because hoarding was encouraged for the first few years. in XMR it were seasoned BTC veterans just selling pipe dreams to noobs (just like any other altcoin) and it became an altcoin from that point forward despite being the best, much needed tech.

Wasn't bragging, just pointing out I have long term belief and stayed here while I was not even holding. I'm sorry your jaded reading comprehension took it as bragging when I was pointing out my belief in this coin. I've held through this entire bubble. I did sell and try to accumulate more but the price rose and I was able to buy back in a dip at like 27. I still hold that and will continue to. Fighting those whales is just a fools errand. You either believe long term or you don't. You on the other hand just troll continually, I have no clue why your here unless it's to keep people out while you accumulate.

[slapper]

...

Bitcoin became successful because hoarding was encouraged for the first few years. in XMR it were seasoned BTC veterans just selling pipe dreams to noobs (just like any other altcoin) and it became an altcoin from that point forward despite being the best, much needed tech.

Wasn't bragging, just pointing out I have long term belief and stayed here while I was not even holding. I'm sorry your jaded reading comprehension took it as bragging when I was pointing out my belief in this coin. I've held through this entire bubble. I did sell and try to accumulate more but the price rose and I was able to buy back in a dip at like 27. I still hold that and will continue to. Fighting those whales is just a fools errand. You either believe long term or you don't. You on the other hand just troll continually, I have no clue why your here unless it's to keep people out while you accumulate.

Here we go. Couldn't pass that opportunity to brag again about how smart of a trader you are to sell and accumulate. Fucking ***got. YOU are the fool, you just don't get it. In time you will.

I am not here to accumulate. (and no I am not going to post about what trades I made to make myself look smarter)

Of course I am here to keep people out and give them views that they normally wouldn't get. Accumulate? Yah right  I have got zcash coming which solves all my privacy concerns with respect to transparent ledgers.

[Hueristic]

...

Bitcoin became successful because hoarding was encouraged for the first few years. in XMR it were seasoned BTC veterans just selling pipe dreams to noobs (just like any other altcoin) and it became an altcoin from that point forward despite being the best, much needed tech.

Wasn't bragging, just pointing out I have long term belief and stayed here while I was not even holding. I'm sorry your jaded reading comprehension took it as bragging when I was pointing out my belief in this coin. I've held through this entire bubble. I did sell and try to accumulate more but the price rose and I was able to buy back in a dip at like 27. I still hold that and will continue to. Fighting those whales is just a fools errand. You either believe long term or you don't. You on the other hand just troll continually, I have no clue why your here unless it's to keep people out while you accumulate.

Here we go. Couldn't pass that opportunity to brag again about how smart of a trader you are to sell and accumulate. Fucking ***got. YOU are the fool, you just don't get it. In time you will.

I am not here to accumulate. (and no I am not going to post about what trades I made to make myself look smarter)

Of course I am here to keep people out and give them views that they normally wouldn't get. Accumulate? Yah right   I have got zcash coming which solves all my privacy concerns with respect to transparent ledgers.

Brag hah, Here's bragging for you. Check out every post where I recommend to buy or sell and see that I was right (If memory serves I haven't given bad advice once) and many of those times didn't even buy (because I didn't have the liquidity to do so) or sell (because I did not want to help change the trend). I have posted every time I saw an opportunity and shared it with everyone. I even posted the perfect time to Short ETH. I hope some of you guys took advantage of that.

So compare my posts with yours troll. And if you check my history you will also see me questioning the integrity of some sketchy actors like The dwarf pool owner before he was funded. Think what you want, I care not. You have been on ignore since your first set of trolling but as was stated a few posts earlier, it is quiet in here, so I read and responded to your post. You will not get a rise out of me as your childish attacks hold no weight, I won't be wasting my time responding to you again for awhile.

[Kramerc]

Please stop quoting the troll and enjoy the silence while the price is getting hammered back into the .0010s.

Cheers.

[Nxtblg]

Please stop quoting the troll and enjoy the silence while the price is getting hammered back into the .0010s.

Cheers.

92 1/2 cents as I write.

[r0ach]

... It is too late for GUI wallets to make any impact anymore. ...

XMR is 2 years old, so it is unbelievable that it still has any value; when are the bagholders going to grasp the futility of the project, going against such odds after such a long time ??

Answer: in absence of better, the best will [have to] do.

^This was actually not my quote, it was some guy named "slapper" and you quoted me somehow...

[smooth]

... It is too late for GUI wallets to make any impact anymore. ...

XMR is 2 years old, so it is unbelievable that it still has any value; when are the bagholders going to grasp the futility of the project, going against such odds after such a long time ??

It not only has value, it has more value as measured by market cap than at almost any time in its history (treating the recent peak and current as a single observation since they are both higher than previous peaks). I'm not aware of any other 2+ year old cryptocurrency to which that statement applies, except Bitcoin somewhat.

EDIT: fixed the quote attribution