[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low

Well shaking those means basically we can forger Monero because it means significiantly lower price to shake them away (something like 0.0005 or lower) and at that point, if there are still developing going on, I would estimate the competition for the coins are pretty fervent since quite many can afford to purchase a significiant part of the network.

I will start buying at 0.001ish with significiant accumulation with the target to purchase quite large stake of coins so probably without leg up to new high we will go there, but there are some resistance on the way down.

If the price goes up, I am more than happy (actually I hope more the price to rise towards new ATH more than drop back to the levels of December 2015).

[1714885151]

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[explorer]

near 100k XMR for sale under 300ksat.  up about 100K from 16 hours ago 

[Barney]

Well shaking those means basically we can forger Monero because it means significiantly lower price to shake them away (something like 0.0005 or lower) and at that point, if there are still developing going on, I would estimate the competition for the coins are pretty fervent since quite many can afford to purchase a significiant part of the network.

I will start buying at 0.001ish with significiant accumulation with the target to purchase quite large stake of coins so probably without leg up to new high we will go there, but there are some resistance on the way down.

If the price goes up, I am more than happy (actually I hope more the price to rise towards new ATH more than drop back to the levels of December 2015).

well XMRBTC is only part of the story. We can easily go to sub 0.001 and be above $1 if BTC moons. Will you say XMR has failed then ?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Well shaking those means basically we can forger Monero because it means significiantly lower price to shake them away (something like 0.0005 or lower) and at that point, if there are still developing going on, I would estimate the competition for the coins are pretty fervent since quite many can afford to purchase a significiant part of the network.

I will start buying at 0.001ish with significiant accumulation with the target to purchase quite large stake of coins so probably without leg up to new high we will go there, but there are some resistance on the way down.

If the price goes up, I am more than happy (actually I hope more the price to rise towards new ATH more than drop back to the levels of December 2015).

well XMRBTC is only part of the story. We can easily go to sub 0.001 and be above $1 if BTC moons. Will you say XMR has failed then ?

It is hard to say if XMR is failed... It depends on many factors, such as is there tech development going on, is the funding sufficient to take the tech to the level it should be. If the aswear is yes, then the likelihood of failure is significiantly lower.

Monero has traded sub 0.001 (in fact I have bought some coins sub 0.001 level, but something like 20 or so coins only).

The other factor to consider about the success vs. failure is the community. Is the community willing to support 0.001 level or not. If not, then it probably goes to 0. If yes, then there are chance of rising back and even to go to ATH and these bullish predictions of 2000 usd/xmr.
However, the major obstacle to achieve these high levels are the whales. Most likely the whales will "redistribute" their coins to the smaller fish on the way to 2000 usd per coin and thus giving resistance to the way up there. If everybody refuses sell any Moneros below 2000 usd and everybody is willing to buy any Monero they can afford sub 2000 usd it is possible to achieve. As long as there are weak hands and coin is highly speculative, the price crashes if even a noob-account farts a bad smelling fart and start to shit on others (sorry my language).  

I do not think the price of BTC has that much to do with the success of XMR, it is an independent currency and BTC is only a tool to channel dollars into XMR.

[Barney]

I do not think the price of BTC has that much to do with the success of XMR, it is an independent currency and BTC is only a tool to channel dollars into XMR.

That's what I'm saying. XMRBTC may be totally irrelevant. If so, there is no need to pay much attention to levels like 0.001 etc

[TheKoziTwo]

The market seems to have crashed very quickly and hard. I think monero is especially vulnerable because many hold their coins on the exchange due to lack of GUI wallet. It's a lot easier to panic sell when all you have to do is click a sell button. Having to actually open a cold storage and transfer the funds will make you think twice and result in less dumping overall.

Users who can't run a commando line wallet will probably be less confident in the investment because holding often means keeping funds with third party, and that is risky. Additionally they may lack understanding of the technology. These two things makes them more eager to sell and with easily accessible funds it can contribute to a pretty violent crash like we're seeing right now. It can explain why monero keeps seeing dump after dump, seemingly never ending. The coin is just so damn easy to sell.

Unfortunately we failed pretty hard at breaking 0.0043 a second time, with current low today at 0.00242. This crash wasn't very surprising and despite what has been claimed in this thread earlier (that everyone who sell moneroj regrets it) I'd suspect there are a few people who actually regret not having sold some in the 300k-400k. I personally sold 50% of my coins about 2 weeks ago and wish I sold more. But on the other hand the coins I do own is mostly profit so I can afford the price going both down and up, I'm pretty comfortable with this I'd say.

We could see a bounce up again to maybe ~300k, but the trend is broken now imo. We're probably headed sub 0.002. I am having doubts about 0.001, but it certainly could happen given the right circumstances (e.g btc rally). I consider 100k-200k a good buying range. If we go back to the 300ks I'll have to consider selling a few more.

Altcoins usually deflate over a long period of time. What's known as the "long, painful, downward spiral". So a quick crash like this could also have a quick rebound. But if the trend is broken and we consistently fail to gain new highs it will slowly sink downwards. Monero may be an exception to this rule and have more violent crashes due to the reasons I outlined above.

All this being said, the difference between 2015 and 2016 is striking and we have a lot of new people on board. I tend to think it won't be as bad as the previous times we headed down and that recovery will come sooner than we'd think.

[inca]

The market seems to have crashed very quickly and hard. I think monero is especially vulnerable because many hold their coins on the exchange due to lack of GUI wallet. It's a lot easier to panic sell when all you have to do is click a sell button. Having to actually open a cold storage and transfer the funds will make you think twice and result in less dumping overall.

Users who can't run a commando line wallet will probably be less confident in the investment because holding often means keeping funds with third party, and that is risky. Additionally they may lack understanding of the technology. These two things makes them more eager to sell and with easily accessible funds it can contribute to a pretty violent crash like we're seeing right now. It can explain why monero keeps seeing dump after dump, seemingly never ending. The coin is just so damn easy to sell.

Unfortunately we failed pretty hard at breaking 0.0043 a second time, with current low today at 0.00242. This crash wasn't very surprising and despite what has been claimed in this thread earlier (that everyone who sell moneroj regrets it) I'd suspect there are a few people who actually regret not having sold some in the 300k-400k. I personally sold 50% of my coins about 2 weeks ago and wish I sold more. But on the other hand the coins I do own is mostly profit so I can afford the price going both down and up, I'm pretty comfortable with this I'd say.

We could see a bounce up again to maybe ~300k, but the trend is broken now imo. We're probably headed sub 0.002. I am having doubts about 0.001, but it certainly could happen given the right circumstances (e.g btc rally). I consider 100k-200k a good buying range. If we go back to the 300ks I'll have to consider selling a few more.

Altcoins usually deflate over a long period of time. What's known as the "long, painful, downward spiral". So a quick crash like this could also have a quick rebound. But if the trend is broken and we consistently fail to gain new highs it will slowly sink downwards. Monero may be an exception to this rule and have more violent crashes due to the reasons I outlined above.

All this being said, the difference between 2015 and 2016 is striking and we have a lot of new people on board. I tend to think it won't be as bad as the previous times we headed down and that recovery will come sooner than we'd think.

Well at least you are honest about talking your book.

[TheKoziTwo]

Well at least you are honest about talking your book.

That's an odd thing to say. I sold 50% of my monero, not 100%. Right now I still stand to gain a lot if the price goes up It's 50/50 for me, I don't mind either way.

[primer-]

Only idiots didn't see this coming..

[Bicmac1973]

Only idiots didn't see this coming..

That you show up after a dump? You are a good trend reversal indicator, you give me hope in dark times. Welcome back, primer! 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Personally I am very cautious now.
Too much dumping taking place... Looks like we need to stay at 0.001 for a while before the next leg upwards.
I am preparin some cash to roll over to btc in case Monero goes to 0.001 and stays there a few more months.
Looks like I need to postpone 2000 usd/xmr a little bit, the good thing is I have time to waite even decades (if I am granted days to live so long).

[hitchingAride]

f### missed the sell boat

[illodin]

445 BTC buy wall @XMR isnt this just confirmation were going to the moon 

They are trying to get the price down for days now but its not working

Only one option left ↑↑↑↑

Real war going on right now with XMR next leg should be even stronger then 400% rise over the last 2 months

Victims of the pump are dropping like flies getting out with losses wishing they had never heard of Monero, only true believers are left now so you can stop the pumping.

[inca]

This is amusing. Way over sold now. If it retraces much further then XMR is a dodo.

[elrippo]

Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...

Last year the facts were profoundly different.  Facts beat pareidolia every time.

What differentiates this years ascent in price vs. last years is the dramatically larger volume this year.  In addition observe the difference in velocity of the price decline after reaching the peak last year vs. now.

It still looks and tastes like last years spike guys.... 

How so exactly?

It's the same behaviour, just different volume 

Well, let's see if this landing will be harder than last year 

[inca]

Now lets see who makes the first big buy, support building at 0.002.

[hitchingAride]

wish yall the best but im sitting on bitcoin till the summer. rode most of this pump but had enough now.

[pinky]

This could be the bottom for a couple of days.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Now lets see who makes the first big buy, support building at 0.002.

I am sorry I cannot do that but if you want to do it obviously you are free to do so.  
The trend broke too badly. It is time to go down and rest a little bit (some months) and probably go its long term resting state value of 0.001.

[TrueCryptonaire]

This could be the bottom for a couple of days.

Unless someone buys in big time and takes us to over 0.0043 with buy of a great grandeur probably within the coming months we are still going down approximately 50 % from the current value. We will see if I am right with this... Do not get me wrong, I would love to be proven wrong. However, I am pleased also to buy more to get lower cost average, the cost average is the bright side of dump.