[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nanobrain]

Last week went from .004 to .008 pretty sharpish....wondering if this week we just plough through from .01 to .02

Aminorex was spot of about this weekend 'coin of the hour'.   I guess it will settle at some point - maybe the end of the weekend will cool it off?

OTOH a lot of serious money will only see this on Monday....  The market cap pushing towards the 100 million level is huge news.

Everything just changed - and I haven't had this much fun in crypto since 2103

Me neither --- just hope there isn't the equivalent of 2014 round the corner

Agreed - but we're a little wiser now.  And Polo isn't (touch wood) Gox.

More exchanges will list XMR now - they will not like Polo taking all the action on this kind of volume.  They are losing out if they don't.

Yes, I can't imagine the profits being made at polo right now.  And of course, adoption by a new exchange usually sees a coin increase in value even further.  Seems we are on a virtuous circle now.

The problem is more that I can't name a 'good' exchange that might step in -  Stamp has no interest in alts, BTCe perhaps, Finex not after the exploits of late, which leaves the Chinese exchanges....

I requested some help with a p2p exchange earlier (thanks for all the replies guys!!)....anyway, realised it was bitsquare.  I'd like to see them open up a direct XMR <>USD/GBP/EUR facility.

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[dranster]

Is this an Exit pump before the release of ZCASH

Looks so

[Anon136]

During these episodes of manic euphoria I distrust my own judgement.  My gut instincts fail, and I have to rely on system 2.

What is the upside limit?  The available btc seems to constitute a limit.  How can we estimate the proportion of the btc which might flow into XMR?  Consider that maybe 10% of bitcoin core own some XMR.  Maybe twice that number of btc holders want XMR, and maybe they will risk 20% of their btc...  By slight of hand I conclude that XMR might be able to command 4% of btc market cap in the long run, just on the basis of current bitcoin holders, without a huge change of circumstances, given the right amount of time.

Suppose non-bitcoin holders want XMR.  Unless they are in the u.k. almost surely they will sign up for some btc/fiat exchange, take days or weeks to verify, buy some btc, fumble around, and eventually get on poloniex.  (Watch poloniex wallet addresses!). I expect a lot of lightly crypto-exposed people who sat out btc to buy in over the next few weeks.  But btc has had years of recruitment, and the absolute numbers are small, relative to the current holders.  Probably new crypto users are less significant to reserve use, and more significant to DNM traffic stats, and will make themselves felt on the traffic and speculation driven by that traffic, rather than on the volume of btc they spend on XMR.

Overall these vague and fuzzy reasonings are consistent with other vague and fuzzy reasonings which I expressed elsewhere, that I expect XMR to trend around $25 in 2017...in that case conditionalities on 10% of DNM traffic being denominated in XMR.

Usually when SWAGs derived by different methods coincide, I give their common estimate a lot more weight.  Not twice as much...more like the second power on some unbounded likelihood scale.  Funny, I haven't thought about the probabilistic logic of that before.   I should do.

This analysis may be missing the fact that price is set on the margin. No where near 4% of the bitcoin needs to chase monero in-order to increase monero's market cap to 4% of bitcoin's market cap.

[explorer]

Last week went from .004 to .008 pretty sharpish....wondering if this week we just plough through from .01 to .02

Aminorex was spot of about this weekend 'coin of the hour'.   I guess it will settle at some point - maybe the end of the weekend will cool it off?

OTOH a lot of serious money will only see this on Monday....  The market cap pushing towards the 100 million level is huge news.

Everything just changed - and I haven't had this much fun in crypto since 2103

Me neither --- just hope there isn't the equivalent of 2014 round the corner

Agreed - but we're a little wiser now.  And Polo isn't (touch wood) Gox.

More exchanges will list XMR now - they will not like Polo taking all the action on this kind of volume.  They are losing out if they don't.

Yes, I can't imagine the profits being made at polo right now.  And of course, adoption by a new exchange usually sees a coin increase in value even further.  Seems we are on a virtuous circle now.

The problem is more that I can't name a 'good' exchange that might step in -  Stamp has no interest in alts, BTCe perhaps, Finex not after the exploits of late, which leaves the Chinese exchanges....

I requested some help with a p2p exchange earlier (thanks for all the replies guys!!)....anyway, realised it was bitsquare.  I'd like to see them open up a direct XMR <>USD/GBP/EUR facility.

Kraken remains

[explorer]

Is this an Exit pump before the release of ZCASH

Looks so

Wow, good eye!  Get out while you can!

[kurious]

Last week went from .004 to .008 pretty sharpish....wondering if this week we just plough through from .01 to .02

Aminorex was spot of about this weekend 'coin of the hour'.   I guess it will settle at some point - maybe the end of the weekend will cool it off?

OTOH a lot of serious money will only see this on Monday....  The market cap pushing towards the 100 million level is huge news.

Everything just changed - and I haven't had this much fun in crypto since 2103

Me neither --- just hope there isn't the equivalent of 2014 round the corner

Agreed - but we're a little wiser now.  And Polo isn't (touch wood) Gox.

More exchanges will list XMR now - they will not like Polo taking all the action on this kind of volume.  They are losing out if they don't.

Yes, I can't imagine the profits being made at polo right now.  And of course, adoption by a new exchange usually sees a coin increase in value even further.  Seems we are on a virtuous circle now.

The problem is more that I can't name a 'good' exchange that might step in -  Stamp has no interest in alts, BTCe perhaps, Finex not after the exploits of late, which leaves the Chinese exchanges....

I requested some help with a p2p exchange earlier (thanks for all the replies guys!!)....anyway, realised it was bitsquare.  I'd like to see them open up a direct XMR <>USD/GBP/EUR facility.

Of course you're right about a lack of good exchanges.  But I would settle for Kraken right now - just to add fuel.  What you said makes me realise how crucial Polo is, not just to XMR - but the whole Alt ecosystem.

[Dite1989]

Wow, seeing Monero high makes me high lol. At other coins, it is the time when I sell my coins and invest into another, but this case is different because I knew that Monero had this potential and even more from the documentation ( so I don't think that it's a pump ) so I'm not sure if I should sell now or keep my funds in Monero.

[aminorex]

This analysis may be missing the fact that price is set on the margin. No where near 4% of the bitcoin needs to chase monero in-order to increase monero's market cap to 4% of bitcoin's market cap.

Yes.  I have seen reports (not really analyses) to the effect that as much as 1:10 flow:delta was seen in btc during the Willy events of 2013/2014.

I guess that price leverage ratio is a monotonic function of ...what... momentum?

[kenscho]

what you think guys, atm +60% on polo! pump before fall? it will rise more or fall? i think now its a bad time to buy

[TrueCryptonaire]

During these episodes of manic euphoria I distrust my own judgement.  My gut instincts fail, and I have to rely on system 2.

What is the upside limit?  The available btc seems to constitute a limit.  How can we estimate the proportion of the btc which might flow into XMR?  Consider that maybe 10% of bitcoin core own some XMR.  Maybe twice that number of btc holders want XMR, and maybe they will risk 20% of their btc...  By slight of hand I conclude that XMR might be able to command 4% of btc market cap in the long run, just on the basis of current bitcoin holders, without a huge change of circumstances, given the right amount of time.

Suppose non-bitcoin holders want XMR.  Unless they are in the u.k. almost surely they will sign up for some btc/fiat exchange, take days or weeks to verify, buy some btc, fumble around, and eventually get on poloniex.  (Watch poloniex wallet addresses!). I expect a lot of lightly crypto-exposed people who sat out btc to buy in over the next few weeks.  But btc has had years of recruitment, and the absolute numbers are small, relative to the current holders.  Probably new crypto users are less significant to reserve use, and more significant to DNM traffic stats, and will make themselves felt on the traffic and speculation driven by that traffic, rather than on the volume of btc they spend on XMR.

Overall these vague and fuzzy reasonings are consistent with other vague and fuzzy reasonings which I expressed elsewhere, that I expect XMR to trend around $25 in 2017...in that case conditionalized on 10% of DNM traffic being denominated in XMR.

Usually when SWAGs derived by different methods coincide, I give their common estimate a lot more weight.  Not twice as much...more like the second power on some unbounded likelihood scale.  Funny, I haven't thought about the probabilistic logic of that before.   I should do.

That's short term thinking in my opinion.
You do not need bitcoiners to adapt Monero to reach parity with bitcoin. All you need is stingy Monero sellers and greedy junkies.

[Anon136]

This analysis may be missing the fact that price is set on the margin. No where near 4% of the bitcoin needs to chase monero in-order to increase monero's market cap to 4% of bitcoin's market cap.

momentum?

Probably liquidity.

[aminorex]

This analysis may be missing the fact that price is set on the margin. No where near 4% of the bitcoin needs to chase monero in-order to increase monero's market cap to 4% of bitcoin's market cap.

momentum?

Probably liquidity.

It takes both momentum and inverse liquidity to do it.  A monotonic function of momentum / liquidity.  Another way to frame it:  A monotonic function of in-range order book imbalance.

[aminorex]

It's pretty hard to believe, but 100k of XMR just got offered.

These alt-coin speculators have been burned and scammed so many times, they are functionally insane.  Like an abused child adopted by a caring family, they just can't cope with the concept of real value.

Well, it had to happen.  We need to stabilize around 012 for a bit before we can take another leg up, otherwise Rangedriver will have underestimated.  And that could never happen, as we know.

So call me an addict, but I think I'll bid a few k at 1180ksat, in case it dips a bit.

[Anon136]

This analysis may be missing the fact that price is set on the margin. No where near 4% of the bitcoin needs to chase monero in-order to increase monero's market cap to 4% of bitcoin's market cap.

momentum?

Probably liquidity.

It takes both momentum and inverse liquidity to do it.  A monotonic function of momentum / liquidity.  Another way to frame it:  A monotonic function of in-range order book imbalance.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by momentum. Whats relevant are future market orders and liquidity. The order book will give a loose approximation of that but it wont account for the effect that changes in market conditions will have on holders who have not yet placed orders but will.

But yea if you assume for the sake of actually having data to work with that the orderbook contains all of the data you need. Than you could make a pretty simple function. Say you want to move the price 10%. How much liquidity is there on the sell side between current price and 10% higher? Take that bitcoin amount and put that on the left side of your ratio. Now take the total change in market capitalization and put that on the right side. That would be a rough approximation of the sort of ratio you were looking for I think. The ~1:10 you were talking about.  

I suspect you probably already knew all of that though and we were just talking past each other a little bit

[explorer]

It's pretty hard to believe, but 100k of XMR just got offered.

These alt-coin speculators have been burned and scammed so many times, they are functionally insane.  Like an abused child adopted by a caring family, they just can't cope with the concept of real value.

Well, it had to happen.  We need to stabilize around 012 for a bit before we can take another leg up, otherwise Rangedriver will have underestimated.  And that could never happen, as we know.

So call me an addict, but I think I'll bid a few k at 1180ksat, in case it dips a bit.

OK looks like we're done here.  All Aboard!

[aminorex]

I suspect you probably already knew all of that though and we were just talking past each other a little bit

I am sufficiently sleep deprived so that anything I say is pretty questionable and only semi-coherent.

That said, I was thinking: If DNMs are 3bn and have a velocity of 12, the whole market could be supplied by 62mm of market cap.  Supposing 1/4 of the XMR outstanding actually floats, the whole dnm economy would run on a 246mm market cap, so the exchange is clearly as though XMR is going to denominate more than a third of DNMs, within a negligible discounting period.  That seems way optimistic to me.  Either my float or velocity factors are way off, or a large part of the marketcap is froth.  Not that it can't get frothier.  It certainly can, and I think it will.  In 2013 the same estimate would have priced BTC on the basis of a DNM economy 1/3 as large, yet we know that SR drove it to $1bn market cap, about 12x what similar multipliers would have implied.  So 10% of AB would mean 24.6mm * 12 = 295mm marketcap for XMR, or about $25/XMR.

A third SWAG, also coinciding with the other two SWAGS.  

I think the probabilistic logic of confounding SWAGs is something like the inverse of the product of the inverses.  So suppose I assign each SWAG a 10% probability.  p = 1-(1-.10)^3 = .27

So there's about a 1 in 4 chance that XMR will trade at $25 this year, because magic.  Need...more...SWAGS...

[aminorex]

OK looks like we're done here.  All Aboard!

I think it is just gonna range trade for a while.  The range is wider now because everyone is on edge, but it will vol-squeeze into another leg up eventually. Just guessing, yo.

I had might as well short some DASH with those BTC.  No way my 0118 low-ball bid is gonna fill with that 0123 wall there.

[birr]

What's a SWAG?

[alphahacktivist]

OK looks like we're done here.  All Aboard!

I think it is just gonna range trade for a while.  The range is wider now because everyone is on edge, but it will vol-squeeze into another leg up eventually. Just guessing, yo.

last squeeze i sold 30000 xmr
now i feel like an idiot to rebuy at 0.0129 with so much risk of the price sliding down  

[elrippo]

OK looks like we're done here.  All Aboard!

I think it is just gonna range trade for a while.  The range is wider now because everyone is on edge, but it will vol-squeeze into another leg up eventually. Just guessing, yo.

last squeeze i sold 30000 xmr
now i feel like an idiot to rebuy at 0.0129 with so much risk of the price sliding down  

Well, then do not buy and wait until the price drops down to 0,008x