[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Febo]

@sandiman

Noone is selling and that goes on for weeks. When someone wants to buy 20k XMR market shakes and price rise. In last 24h were 3 such buys. There will be many more next days.

You could call Monero Whale Marketmaker a Ring CT. If you want.

Monero is not Ethereum where are 82 million coins and there will be flood of them in upcoming years. Moneros will be rare.

let's talk about it again in few days  

Just look last 2 months. beside 2 days when all alts had lots volume because of ETH, the rest days have relatively low volume for Monero. Price is to low that sellers would part from them. Moreno is in strong hands.  

Everything have price. So it also have Monero. If Monero will reach that price in next few days we will also see some increased volume. But i doubt that will happen. But who knows.

[1714877263]

1714877263

[1714877263]

1714877263

[1714877263]

1714877263

[1714877263]

1714877263

[aminorex]

...Moreno is in strong hands.  

Everything have price. So it also have Monero. If Monero will reach that price in next few days we will also see some increased volume. But i doubt that will happen. But who knows.

The 16% overnight gain was enough to shake a few out.  As BTC declines, the fiat-break-evens for XMR miners go up, denominated in BTC.  We are probably pretty close right now.  I am guessing most of the 100k or so shaken loose on the intraday spike was held-back mining stock which was waiting for a profitable sale price.  When that is gone, it is gone.  Until it is gone, we can't see the price of which you speak, since it is higher, lost in a sea of mining liquidity.

A question for those who watch:  Any evidence of rising short interest?

[aminorex]

Oh, I do love the dumps.  So long and thanks for the monero.

[Dotto]

I have sold a nice chunk of my stash. To me it feels a little overbought and Im waiting for a shiny correction (28-33 area) but who knows... If we are going moon its ok too.

[nioc]

I have sell almost 30% of my stash. To me it feels a little overbought and Im waiting for a nice correction (28-33 area) but who knows... If we are going moon its ok too.

I understand that english is not you first language so here is a friendly lesson.

You should say "I have sold" instead of "I have sell".  Sold is the past tense.

Even though I don't trade now I appreciate your posts because your predictions have been quite good.  I will assume you are talking about the relatively short term I won't have to consider a significant upturn for btc.  Given that, I think a correction to 28-33 is slim.  The voices in my head give 33 a possibility.  My voices vs your knowledge

We just touched the 5K/19btc sell wall @ 0.00385200, popcorn.

Edit: Before I could heat my popcorn the wall was bought 

[aminorex]

I have sold a nice chunk of my stash. To me it feels a little overbought and Im waiting for a shiny correction (28-33 area) but who knows... If we are going moon its ok too.

Not so overbought that it can't hold the levels, I think, or even rise significantly from here.  We've all seen it before.  Whether it is happening again at any given moment is always an open question.  When I look at supply and demand (albeit through a dark lens - you never know what is waiting on the sidelines) it seems likely to wander up for a while yet, which is consistent with the fundamental context of falling BTCUSD and crashing DASH.

Anyhow, it's good to sell on strength in small-cap instruments, so I am happy you found a comfortable exit for that fraction.  Personally, I look forward to the day when I can buy gold and productive real estate with XMR directly, without transiting the BTC-sphere.  That's my comfortable exit ramp.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Warz will start dumping any time now. Bear in mind we are now in his selling zone.

[aminorex]

Warz will start dumping any time now. Bear in mind we are now in his selling zone.

Given the number of coins moved, do you think he has any left?

Y'all are unduly pessimistic.  This is not a high price. 2/3 of the initial emission are already gone, distributed.  Try to mine some XMR and tell me how long to pay for your gpu.

I think someone tried to short and they got squeezed. That is price Discovery. there is just too much demand and not enough Supply for the market to support a lower price. As long as 20K buyers come in on a regular basis and remove Supply we are not going to be able to retrace. One day it will turn bearish. Probably after a significant overshoot. Today is not that day. This price is not that price.

And my bullishness is not because of the long-term value of Monero. Any present value discounting which deemed that the adoption of Monero in darknetmarkets was anything but a tail risk would be a multiple of the current valuation. My bullishness for the short-term is because of supply and demand. I admit that the evidence is limited and the error bars are huge but the best evidence is that we are currently visiting the central tendency of supply and demand curves.

Once demand flags a corrective retracement is possible. So far demand has been uninterrupted since the ides of May. Moreover the conditions are right for XMR to rise because the cost of XMR is not denominated in BTC. It is denominated in kilowatt hours. And as long as it keeps requiring more BTC to pay for that energy the BTC price will fluctuate favorably.

If the clearing price has risen 8% (in kilowatt hours) in the past month, it is probably because about 0.9% of the float has been removed from the market into reserves.  That can hardly be surprising, given the bfx flap.  I know that the event prompted me to reduce my market making stake, as it forced me to revisit the agent risk problem consciously.

Some targets for XMR assuming price stability in kWh, at us$2.20, depending on how far the btc bear goes:. Btc@$537 -> xmr@412k; btc@$444 -> xmr@500k.

[sandiman]

@sandiman

Noone is selling and that goes on for weeks. When someone wants to buy 20k XMR market shakes and price rise. In last 24h were 3 such buys. There will be many more next days.

You could call Monero Whale Marketmaker a Ring CT. If you want.

Monero is not Ethereum where are 82 million coins and there will be flood of them in upcoming years. Moneros will be rare.

let's talk about it again in few days  

Just look last 2 months. beside 2 days when all alts had lots volume because of ETH, the rest days have relatively low volume for Monero. Price is to low that sellers would part from them. Moreno is in strong hands.  

Everything have price. So it also have Monero. If Monero will reach that price in next few days we will also see some increased volume. But i doubt that will happen. But who knows.

Monero strong hands dumping their XMR to short coverer and fresh blood

[TrueCryptonaire]

Warz will start dumping any time now. Bear in mind we are now in his selling zone.

Given the number of coins moved, do you think he has any left?

Y'all are unduly pessimistic.  This is not a high price. 2/3 of the initial emission are already gone, distributed.  Try to mine some XMR and tell me how long to pay for your gpu.

I think someone tried to short and they got squeezed. That is price Discovery. there is just too much demand and not enough Supply for the market to support a lower price. As long as 20K buyers come in on a regular basis and remove Supply we are not going to be able to retrace. One day it will turn bearish. Probably after a significant overshoot. Today is not that day. This price is not that price.

And my bullishness is not because of the long-term value of Monero. Any present value discounting which deemed that the adoption of Monero in darknetmarkets was anything but a tail risk would be a multiple of the current valuation. My bullishness for the short-term is because of supply and demand. I admit that the evidence is limited and the error bars are huge but the best evidence is that we are currently visiting the central tendency of supply and demand curves.

Once demand flags a corrective retracement is possible. So far demand has been uninterrupted since the ides of May. Moreover the conditions are right for XMR to rise because the cost of XMR is not denominated in BTC. It is denominated in kilowatt hours. And as long as it keeps requiring more BTC to pay for that energy the BTC price will fluctuate favorably.

If the clearing price has risen 8% (in kilowatt hours) in the past month, it is probably because about 0.9% of the float has been removed from the market into reserves.  That can hardly be surprising, given the bfx flap.  I know that the event prompted me to reduce my market making stake, as it forced me to revisit the agent risk problem consciously.

Some targets for XMR assuming price stability in kWh, at us$2.20, depending on how far the btc bear goes:. Btc@$537 -> xmr@412k; btc@$444 -> xmr@500k.

Strong bearish signal.

[aminorex]

Strong bearish signal.

Meanwhile, the pattern of higher highs and higher lows continues uninterrupted, heading for the fourth month.

The trend ain't bent yet.

[nioc]

A bit late as I see the aminorex has replied but since I composed it I will post it.

Warz will start dumping any time now. Bear in mind we are now in his selling zone.

Given the number of coins moved, do you think he has any left?

Y'all are unduly pessimistic.  This is not a high price. 2/3 of the initial emission are already gone, distributed.  Try to mine some XMR and tell me how long to pay for your gpu.

I think someone tried to short and they got squeezed. That is price Discovery. there is just too much demand and not enough Supply for the market to support a lower price. As long as 20K buyers come in on a regular basis and remove Supply we are not going to be able to retrace. One day it will turn bearish. Probably after a significant overshoot. Today is not that day. This price is not that price.

And my bullishness is not because of the long-term value of Monero. Any present value discounting which deemed that the adoption of Monero in darknetmarkets was anything but a tail risk would be a multiple of the current valuation. My bullishness for the short-term is because of supply and demand. I admit that the evidence is limited and the error bars are huge but the best evidence is that we are currently visiting the central tendency of supply and demand curves.

Once demand flags a corrective retracement is possible. So far demand has been uninterrupted since the ides of May. Moreover the conditions are right for XMR to rise because the cost of XMR is not denominated in BTC. It is denominated in kilowatt hours. And as long as it keeps requiring more BTC to pay for that energy the BTC price will fluctuate favorably.

If the clearing price has risen 8% (in kilowatt hours) in the past month, it is probably because about 0.9% of the float has been removed from the market into reserves.  That can hardly be surprising, given the bfx flap.  I know that the event prompted me to reduce my market making stake, as it forced me to revisit the agent risk problem consciously.

Some targets for XMR assuming price stability in kWh, at us$2.20, depending on how far the btc bear goes:. Btc@$537 -> xmr@412k; btc@$444 -> xmr@500k.

Strong bearish signal.

You keep saying that and the price keeps going up. 

My opinion is that the 100k 300k or so of large dumps were caught pretty nicely so far, but sucked most of the demand out of the system.  If there were any supply, we would be way lower.  I consider this bullish, because the demand will come back, while the supply will not - because it just doesn't exist.  The only way it can go down is for the holders to become pessimistic about the future or optimistic about prospects of short gains.  And its a bit late for the later, at this point.

I suspect that the exchanges will lose at least half of their XMR holdings when the GUI is officially released.  That's also roughly equivalent to reducing the float by half, and should result in a 4x rise in market clearing levels.

My intention is to accumulate below 0026, distribute above 0032, over the next week or two.  Wider spreads than usual.  Volatility should favor traders over holders for the short term.

Very bearish post.

Price here was the mid 260s.

Don't worry sooner or later you will be correct.

[aminorex]

Monero strong hands dumping their XMR to short coverer and fresh blood

The fresh blood in the streets right now is the blood of the bull-gored shorts. Such joys do not last forever, but I am going to gasp the heady, blood-dimmed smell of whirling victory as our enemies are driven before us, their women lamenting, ours ullulating in triumph, for as long as this harvest bough is greening. The sinews of their dead will bind our spearheads; their femurs will beat the drums of our relentless advance; the gold of their melted fillings will feed our hungry bullet molds; the burning of their attack ships off the shoulder of Orion will fuel our C-beams glittering in the dark at the Tannhäuser Gate.

And that, Sir, is how we rhetoric.

[sandiman]

Monero strong hands dumping their XMR to short coverer and fresh blood

The fresh blood in the streets right now is the blood of the bull-gored shorts. Such joys do not last forever, but I am going to gasp the heady, blood-dimmed smell of whirling victory as our enemies are driven before us, their women lamenting, ours ullulating in triumph, for as long as this harvest bough is greening. The sinews of their dead will bind our spearheads; their femurs will beat the drums of our relentless advance; the gold of their melted fillings will feed our hungry bullet molds; the burning of their attack ships off the shoulder of Orion will fuel our C-beams glittering in the dark at the Tannhäuser Gate.

And that, Sir, is how we rhetoric.

I can totaly understand your joy, dumping your monero on the high of the trading range in form since 2015 (that has extremely low probabilities to be broken upward on that move looking at the tape) represents some nice benefits + nice possibilities to considerably increase your holding (x2 at least ?).

looks like TrueCryptonaire reverse indicators on your bullish comments might again prove to be correct soonish.

[birr]

Mongol General: What is best in life?
Conan: To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women
.
.
.
The Wizard: Wealth can be wonderful, but you know, success can test one's mettle as surely as the strongest adversary

One of these days I'll have to watch that movie.

[Febo]

looks like TrueCryptonaire reverse indicators on your bullish comments might again prove to be correct soonish.

He was so many times wrong in this thread. But yes he made tons of posts so is hard not to be wrong.

Last 2 days Monero price increase for 16%. It is unlikely to expect it will raise another 16% in next 2 days.

But who knows. We will see in next 2 days.

Like TrueCryptonaire used to say. I dont bother much with price since have nothing to sell anytime soon.

[Mike8]

Like TrueCryptonaire used to say. I dont bother much with price since have nothing to sell anytime soon.

Maybe it's true, but still.. you can't argue that a steady grow always looks nice, whether you want to sell or not (yet).

[aminorex]

I can totaly understand your joy, dumping your monero on the high

In fact, I own the same number of XMR today as I did in May, +/-10%, I would own more, except that I consider my current share to be a rational limit.  I have to sell some at highs, in order to provide liquidity, but I can no longer book my gains in XMR, over the long run.  I only do that when price is low.

[TrueCryptonaire]

looks like TrueCryptonaire reverse indicators on your bullish comments might again prove to be correct soonish.

He was so many times wrong in this thread. But yes he made tons of posts so is hard not to be wrong.

Last 2 days Monero price increase for 16%. It is unlikely to expect it will raise another 16% in next 2 days.

But who knows. We will see in next 2 days.

Like TrueCryptonaire used to say. I dont bother much with price since have nothing to sell anytime soon.

Basically every time my posts are right.
To claim it will drop 10-20 % doesn't imply it will not rise after that even higher.
The logic behind the reverseness of Aminorex is that he pumps the price up by being bullish so that he can release some of his bags which he bought initially when the price was 0.001 1 year ago. The amounts of coins even a small number of bitcoins was able to buy were completely different so he must have pretty heavy bags.
Bear in mind, also we have Warz here who is probably lurking now and looking for an opportunity to unload some sweetness on the community from his plastic bags.

Even now we might say Monero has crashed - it used to cost 0.004 btc a few hours ago but currently merely 0.0038, so it has dropped 5 % from the peak.
However, I am not personally concerned these short term movements and yes, no Moneros have been sold by me despite I am a short term bear. 

[aminorex]

Trading range has been 95+% from 1.80 to 2.20 USD, for a fairly long while.  I doubt it can go as low as 1.80 any longer, though.  That would take us all the way back to lows last seen...yesterday...which would be too terrible to contemplate, and hence impossible.