[XMR] Monero Speculation

[CoinHoarder]

Hopefully when everything crashes (and most coins will) the solid ones like Monero are still here and worth more than they are today.

They (all ALT coins) will definitely all burn to the ground soon, but I am certain that Monero is one of the few that will rise among the ashes.

[cryptimus prime]

George Maxwells speak at Coinbase has practically made DASH on Coinbase impossible, ZCash unlikely and XMR very likely.
Very bullish.

Maxwell: "Zcash is not unconditionally sound, can't be with current tech...."
Maxwell: "Dash isn't cryptographically private at all...it's snakeoil and I'm just sort of beside myself about it, personally."

[ROT13]

I have to say that Monero's relative stability over the past month and a half certainly bodes well for its future prospects

[bitebits]

George Maxwells speak at Coinbase has practically made DASH on Coinbase impossible, ZCash unlikely and XMR very likely.
Very bullish.

Maxwell: "Zcash is not unconditionally sound, can't be with current tech...."
Maxwell: "Dash isn't cryptographically private at all...it's snakeoil and I'm just sort of beside myself about it, personally."

I guess you are referring to this recent video? Seems that I have something to watch tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHPYNZ8i1cU

Greg Maxwell on Confidential Transactions, 28 April 2017
Speakers at Coinbase, Published on May 2, 2017

[cryptimus prime]

Yes this Coinbase talk is good for XMR. Hope it will get the attention it needs on social media.

Also look at the chart and predictions over on tradingview, many traders see a massive cup and handle formation on XMR forming and ready for breakout.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRUSD/6HdI4WUp-XMR-MASSIVE-CUP-AND-HANDLE/

[romanturbo]

Prepare to moon my friends, this has only begun.

[sezyumx]

Moreno he is one of the market's most powerful in the altcoin .
1.ETH
2.Rip
3.Dash
4.Moreno

[mfgex]

As someone who prefers to take the long term view I find the following charts relevant. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage. What the charts illustrate is the significant drop in the percentage of the total market cap of crypto currencies that is accounted for by Bitcoin from over 96% in November 2013 to 61% as of the time of this post. It has recently actually fallen below 60%. A different way to look at this is the sharp increase in the combined market capitalization of alt coins from ~1.5 billion USD a year ago to over 15 billion USD today. This is an increase of ~1000%. Bitcoin by comparison has had an increase from ~7 billion USD a year ago to ~23.5 billion USD today for an increase of  ~240%. What we have here is crypto currency rally that is driven primarily by alt coins and not Bitcoin. This is in sharp contrast to previous crypto currency rallies where the primary driving force was Bitcoin. My take is that the market is getting tired of waiting for Bitcoin to sort out its blocksize scaling issues, assuming they  even have a solution, and is looking for alternatives.

How does Monero compare to all of the above. During the last year Monero say an increase in market capitalization of from ~11 million USD to currently ~330 million USD for an increase of ~2900%. My take is what we are seeing here with Monero is a market consolidation after a sharp increase, in an otherwisie strong bull market in alt coins. Monero has underperformed many other alt coins in the first part of 2017; however this is understandable when one considers Monero's stellar performance in 2016.

As for where is Monero likely to trade in the next few months I must point out that I have in the past being wrong on multiple occasions such as buying between ~0.0011 - ~0.0050 XBT in 2014 only to watch it fall to ~0.0009 XBT in December 2014 and also in 2015 buying at around ~0.0024 XBT only to again watch Monero fall to below 0.0010 XBT in December 2015.

To be fair the % of total market cap share of bitcoin is likely skewed and manipulated by many ICOs and premined coins where there is centralized control of the majority of supply.

As the ICO scam bubble increases and grows the metric becomes diluted as an accurate way to determine the "real" % market cap of bitcoin of the total crypto space.

i think the biggest thing skewing that chart is Ethereum.  At this point i don't think it should be included.  The combined altcoin Mkt cap minus ETH still would be rising, but not so insanely high

[nanobrain]

Ok, I'd like to ask a question.
In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link) but I want to ask this question here, rather than BTC speculation because that board is well....full of knobs. And conversely, this thread isn't (well Adolf and that duck character apart).

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

Is this a wave of FOMO?  Are whales manipulating the market so they can get a good exit price? Does someone know something most don't? Have a pile of rich drunken idiots discovered crypto?  Is this linked to dodgy exchanges and money 'trapped' in the eco-system?

I'd be interested in your sincere and serious thoughts (or stupid if you prefer but if I'd have wanted cultist dictates or 'honeybadger' comments, I'd have gone to aforementioned board).

[Febo]

As someone who prefers to take the long term view I find the following charts relevant. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage. What the charts illustrate is the significant drop in the percentage of the total market cap of crypto currencies that is accounted for by Bitcoin from over 96% in November 2013 to 61% as of the time of this post. It has recently actually fallen below 60%. A different way to look at this is the sharp increase in the combined market capitalization of alt coins from ~1.5 billion USD a year ago to over 15 billion USD today. This is an increase of ~1000%. Bitcoin by comparison has had an increase from ~7 billion USD a year ago to ~23.5 billion USD today for an increase of  ~240%. What we have here is crypto currency rally that is driven primarily by alt coins and not Bitcoin. This is in sharp contrast to previous crypto currency rallies where the primary driving force was Bitcoin. My take is that the market is getting tired of waiting for Bitcoin to sort out its blocksize scaling issues, assuming they  even have a solution, and is looking for alternatives.

How does Monero compare to all of the above. During the last year Monero say an increase in market capitalization of from ~11 million USD to currently ~330 million USD for an increase of ~2900%. My take is what we are seeing here with Monero is a market consolidation after a sharp increase, in an otherwisie strong bull market in alt coins. Monero has underperformed many other alt coins in the first part of 2017; however this is understandable when one considers Monero's stellar performance in 2016.

As for where is Monero likely to trade in the next few months I must point out that I have in the past being wrong on multiple occasions such as buying between ~0.0011 - ~0.0050 XBT in 2014 only to watch it fall to ~0.0009 XBT in December 2014 and also in 2015 buying at around ~0.0024 XBT only to again watch Monero fall to below 0.0010 XBT in December 2015.

To be fair the % of total market cap share of bitcoin is likely skewed and manipulated by many ICOs and premined coins where there is centralized control of the majority of supply.

As the ICO scam bubble increases and grows the metric becomes diluted as an accurate way to determine the "real" % market cap of bitcoin of the total crypto space.

i think the biggest thing skewing that chart is Ethereum.  At this point i don't think it should be included.  The combined altcoin Mkt cap minus ETH still would be rising, but not so insanely high

ETH made in last year same as the rest of alts x10. from $700m to $7b



@nanobrain
There is nothing negative about Bitcoin. Pile of developers works on it and  Bitcoin is stronger then ever. Blocksize debate is just a a mask that distract so many dont see teh clear picture. Maybe is actually a good thing and makes enemies of BTC falsely think how weak BTC is.

[KeyJockey]

Ok, I'd like to ask a question.
In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link) but I want to ask this question here, rather than BTC speculation because that board is well....full of knobs. And conversely, this thread isn't (well Adolf and that duck character apart).

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

Is this a wave of FOMO?  Are whales manipulating the market so they can get a good exit price? Does someone know something most don't? Have a pile of rich drunken idiots discovered crypto?  Is this linked to dodgy exchanges and money 'trapped' in the eco-system?

I'd be interested in your sincere and serious thoughts (or stupid if you prefer but if I'd have wanted cultist dictates or 'honeybadger' comments, I'd have gone to aforementioned board).

I think, for most people who are actual *users* of bitcoin the scaling debate is mainly about the rising miner fees.

The thing that made me realize that maybe the fear and doom over the scaling debate was overdone was the realization a while back that, suppose bitcoin value went up by a factor of 1,000 so we were looking at $1 Million per bitcoin BUT the fee for transacting also went up by 1000X so it'd cost still 0.0005 bitcoin (currently about 74 cents) or in that case $740.00 to make a transaction.

If you could snap your fingers and magically make that happen, would you do it?  $1 Million per bitcoin IF it cost $740 to move it around?

Being honest, I'd have to say HELL YEAH I'd still take that deal, LOL.  Of course I'd make a lot less transactions but I'd still make it happen.

Now, granted, in that scenario it's a huge open question IF bitcoin as-is could still actually continue as a viable ongoing project OR if the economics of it in that vastly revised scenario would lead to the entire project totally failing, eventually, since if there's little *usage* in fact it's doubtful (?) that the value would persist.

But I think most people can't think it thru that deeply.

Seems like as long at the price is going up but the fees are relatively the same even if also going up... nothing may change.

Of course in this scenario also I'd expect another crypto coin (ahem, Monero) to have a solid shot at taking over the actual *transactions* once BTC is only a store of value and so expensive to move.  So, again having a hedged position in XMR it'd be just fine with me if $1 Million BTC had $740 miner fees, if the world was in that situation using Monero for transactions in place of what Bitcoin's doing today (but XMR was at $1000+ where BTC is today, with about $0.74 transaction fee)

[kurious]

Ok, I'd like to ask a question.
In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link) but I want to ask this question here, rather than BTC speculation because that board is well....full of knobs. And conversely, this thread isn't (well Adolf and that duck character apart).

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

Is this a wave of FOMO?  Are whales manipulating the market so they can get a good exit price? Does someone know something most don't? Have a pile of rich drunken idiots discovered crypto?  Is this linked to dodgy exchanges and money 'trapped' in the eco-system?

I'd be interested in your sincere and serious thoughts (or stupid if you prefer but if I'd have wanted cultist dictates or 'honeybadger' comments, I'd have gone to aforementioned board).

Scaling hasn't gone away, but now looks like it will (and LTC seems ok with Segwit)

So it looks hunky dory.. BUT (a possible worry to note):

Bitfinex is way higher than all other main exchanges and has 'led' this rise.  However, BFX has no exit route in cash now.  So people are having to buy BTC to get out...  There are people who thinks BFX has messed with Tether and may have run a fractional reserve scam either in BTC (or possibly USDT) and that it might blow up...

So part of the hike in price may have been led by an exchange with a whiff of Gox about it.

Either way, as you would expect WallObserver bulls think it's all 'to be expected' and it's just what happens every time after a halving - but personally I think it's looking a little too-good-to-be-true. For me I don't get it, the fundamentals have not changed enough.

I have just cashed a few out, but I have no idea if I am right to have done so.   I just don't want to kick myself like I did after the 2013 run....

[kurious]

In other news - a couple of 2hr green candles for us.

Good to see...

[smooth]

In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link)

I think at least small diversions into BTC have to be on topic given its dominant position on the crypto market and huge role in overall sentiment (including XMR).

My answer to your questions is that BTC is trading as a speculative asset and store of value. Scaling doesn't matter for the foreseeable future because whether people buy coffee on the blockchain anytime soon makes absolutely no difference to the important value drivers at this point, and even several dollars of tx fees (well above what is being paid now) is perfectly okay for moving funds between exchanges.

There is a risk that scaling doesn't get fixed ever, and that would likely matter, but whether it gets fixed in 2017 or 2027 (or at least 2022) may not matter much if at all.

[Shiroslullaby]

I guess you are referring to this recent video? Seems that I have something to watch tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHPYNZ8i1cU

Greg Maxwell on Confidential Transactions, 28 April 2017
Speakers at Coinbase, Published on May 2, 2017

I literally just opened this video in my browser. About to watch it as I eat lunch.

[c789]

I guess you are referring to this recent video? Seems that I have something to watch tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHPYNZ8i1cU

Greg Maxwell on Confidential Transactions, 28 April 2017
Speakers at Coinbase, Published on May 2, 2017

I literally just opened this video in my browser. About to watch it as I eat lunch.

You're in for a treat. He does an excellent job.

[Shiroslullaby]

"I had a slide in the deck that was like 'Dash LOL' and nothing else"

Really good presentation.
Anyone who is interested in the future of Bitcoin, or alt-coins like Monero, Dash, Zcash and their privacy features
definitely needs to watch this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHPYNZ8i1cU

[explorer]

Ok, I'd like to ask a question.
In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link) but I want to ask this question here, rather than BTC speculation because that board is well....full of knobs. And conversely, this thread isn't (well Adolf and that duck character apart).

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

Is this a wave of FOMO?  Are whales manipulating the market so they can get a good exit price? Does someone know something most don't? Have a pile of rich drunken idiots discovered crypto?  Is this linked to dodgy exchanges and money 'trapped' in the eco-system?

I'd be interested in your sincere and serious thoughts (or stupid if you prefer but if I'd have wanted cultist dictates or 'honeybadger' comments, I'd have gone to aforementioned board).

Scaling hasn't gone away, but now looks like it will (and LTC seems ok with Segwit)

So it looks hunky dory.. BUT (a possible worry to note):

Bitfinex is way higher than all other main exchanges and has 'led' this rise.  However, BFX has no exit route in cash now.  So people are having to buy BTC to get out...  There are people who thinks BFX has messed with Tether and may have run a fractional reserve scam either in BTC (or possibly USDT) and that it might blow up...

So part of the hike in price may have been led by an exchange with a whiff of Gox about it.

Either way, as you would expect WallObserver bulls think it's all 'to be expected' and it's just what happens every time after a halving - but personally I think it's looking a little too-good-to-be-true. For me I don't get it, the fundamentals have not changed enough.

I think we need to back off and look at the larger picture, not just crypto.  The world is going haywire, and there is no "safe" asset.  There's a LOT of cash out there looking for a place to roost.  Crypto is going to continue to absorb an increasing share of it.  Bitcoin can go WAY up on shaky fundamentals.  Just ask the shitcoin crew.  Fundamentals don't count for much right now.  After the money gets in the door, it will start to look around, but to start with it goes with the main stream.

I have just cashed a few out, but I have no idea if I am right to have done so.   I just don't want to kick myself like I did after the 2013 run....

 IMO The rise hasn't yet begun (OK, so I'm usually wrong...).  I'd wait for something that starts to look exponential.  This is a mere swell before the wave. A 'heads up'  Like seeing $250-300 in 2013.  It just got the party started.

[KeyJockey]

I'm not fully convinced there's actually anything real to Technical Analysis ("drawing lines on a chart" LOL) but fact is that people looking for patterns *might* just be self-fulfilling prophecies, i.e. traders see Cup And Handle, expect it means a big price jump coming, so they buy... and that drives price up!

In any case, very clear strong Cup And Handle here for sure... even easier to see on zoomed out BitcoinWisdom page :



So, have at it boys... let 'er rip!!!

[kurious]

Ok, I'd like to ask a question.
In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link) but I want to ask this question here, rather than BTC speculation because that board is well....full of knobs. And conversely, this thread isn't (well Adolf and that duck character apart).

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

Is this a wave of FOMO?  Are whales manipulating the market so they can get a good exit price? Does someone know something most don't? Have a pile of rich drunken idiots discovered crypto?  Is this linked to dodgy exchanges and money 'trapped' in the eco-system?

I'd be interested in your sincere and serious thoughts (or stupid if you prefer but if I'd have wanted cultist dictates or 'honeybadger' comments, I'd have gone to aforementioned board).

Scaling hasn't gone away, but now looks like it will (and LTC seems ok with Segwit)

So it looks hunky dory.. BUT (a possible worry to note):

Bitfinex is way higher than all other main exchanges and has 'led' this rise.  However, BFX has no exit route in cash now.  So people are having to buy BTC to get out...  There are people who thinks BFX has messed with Tether and may have run a fractional reserve scam either in BTC (or possibly USDT) and that it might blow up...

So part of the hike in price may have been led by an exchange with a whiff of Gox about it.

Either way, as you would expect WallObserver bulls think it's all 'to be expected' and it's just what happens every time after a halving - but personally I think it's looking a little too-good-to-be-true. For me I don't get it, the fundamentals have not changed enough.

I think we need to back off and look at the larger picture, not just crypto.  The world is going haywire, and there is no "safe" asset.  There's a LOT of cash out there looking for a place to roost.  Crypto is going to continue to absorb an increasing share of it.  Bitcoin can go WAY up on shaky fundamentals.  Just ask the shitcoin crew.  Fundamentals don't count for much right now.  After the money gets in the door, it will start to look around, but to start with it goes with the main stream.

I have just cashed a few out, but I have no idea if I am right to have done so.   I just don't want to kick myself like I did after the 2013 run....

 IMO The rise hasn't yet begun (OK, so I'm usually wrong...).  I'd wait for something that starts to look exponential.  This is a mere swell before the wave. A 'heads up'   Like seeing $250-300 in 2013.  It just got the party started.

No one will be happier than me if you're right - especially if Monero holds up as well as it is just now...

My stash has just reached its own ATH, my only problem now is how I can cash any more out without silly levels of capital gains tax.