[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Majormax]

Could be wrong, though, of course... this is crypto, any damn weird thing can happen LOL -- but that's how it feels/looks to me

That is how I feel, except the other way round.

The upsurge of interest from the previously unconverted, and long time skeptical ppl from all quarters,  is screaming to me that the peak is in  (based on decades of closely following markets)..

but I am hoping that I am wrong.


In trading, I so frequently find I am saying to myself  ' damn, I wish I hadn't been correct'.  Only long-time, hard-bitten traders will understand that.

[smooth]

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

I had that happen...right around the time of the market top in 2013.

It is a bearish indicator. It means that the wave of FOMO has reached the masses. The only difference at that point is how many decide to buy and how much, but the important fact is that there are really no more big wave of people to reach (at least not ones with money). When Mayweather and Paris Hilton are promoting ICOs, when it is being covered on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. every day, who is left? Price gains are certainly still possible, but the risks have become a lot more symmetric.

There is one more wave to reach and that is conservative institutionsl money that will allocate to crypto as an asset class given ETFs (or similar vehicles) but not before. That's potentially a big wave ($1 T or more). It may or may not happen this cycle.

[Majormax]

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

I had that happen...right around the time of the market top in 2013.

It is a bearish indicator. It means that the wave of FOMO has reached the masses. The only difference at that point is how many decide to buy and how much, but the important fact is that there are really no more big wave of people to reach (at least not ones with money). When Mayweather and Paris Hilton are promoting ICOs, when it is being covered on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. every day, who is left? Price gains are certainly still possible, but the risks have become a lot more symmetric.

There is one more wave to reach and that is conservative institutionsl money that will allocate to crypto as an asset class given ETFs (or similar vehicles) but not before. That's potentially a big wave ($1 T or more). It may or may not happen this cycle.

Spot on, I think.

Barring a real outlier event, this is probably the penultimate wave before the true recognition.

On that basis, expect a decline to gradually build momentum until it erases 80% on average. The winners will be down 60%, the losers will be down 95% or more. Timescale between 1 and 3 years before the final wave up starts. All based on conjecture and previous fractal patterns.

[explorer]

Could be wrong, though, of course... this is crypto, any damn weird thing can happen LOL -- but that's how it feels/looks to me

That is how I feel, except the other way round.

The upsurge of interest from the previously unconverted, and long time skeptical ppl from all quarters,  is screaming to me that the peak is in  (based on decades of closely following markets)..

but I am hoping that I am wrong.


In trading, I so frequently find I am saying to myself  ' damn, I wish I hadn't been correct'.  Only long-time, hard-bitten traders will understand that.

Understandable, but, I don't see a 'peak' yet.  Just some swelling foothills that always precede the peak (BTC) The steady rise and consolidate program should shift to an up up and away format, followed by a peak, and a 50% retrace.  There just hasn't been enough excitement, and Peter Schiff still has hair.  Masterluc's projection fits with my gut feeling. 
:popcorn

[Majormax]

Could be wrong, though, of course... this is crypto, any damn weird thing can happen LOL -- but that's how it feels/looks to me

That is how I feel, except the other way round.

The upsurge of interest from the previously unconverted, and long time skeptical ppl from all quarters,  is screaming to me that the peak is in  (based on decades of closely following markets)..

but I am hoping that I am wrong.


In trading, I so frequently find I am saying to myself  ' damn, I wish I hadn't been correct'.  Only long-time, hard-bitten traders will understand that.

Understandable, but, I don't see a 'peak' yet.  Just some swelling foothills that always precede the peak (BTC) The steady rise and consolidate program should shift to an up up and away format, followed by a peak, and a 50% retrace.  There just hasn't been enough excitement, and Peter Schiff still has hair.  Masterluc's projection fits with my gut feeling.  
:popcorn

That is the usual way, yes. When BTC was completely dominant, it was clear as daylight, in the previous 3 waves. It may still happen as you say.

However, in this wave , the whole thing has been complicated by so many significant competing Cryptos, and a greater maturity in the trading markets. Possibly the top will be a long messy one, rather closer to the stock market 'roll-overs'. For sure, re-rating of different projects is going to be the big profit play this time.

[Moon_Man]

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

I had that happen...right around the time of the market top in 2013.

It is a bearish indicator. It means that the wave of FOMO has reached the masses. The only difference at that point is how many decide to buy and how much, but the important fact is that there are really no more big wave of people to reach (at least not ones with money). When Mayweather and Paris Hilton are promoting ICOs, when it is being covered on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. every day, who is left? Price gains are certainly still possible, but the risks have become a lot more symmetric.

There is one more wave to reach and that is conservative institutionsl money that will allocate to crypto as an asset class given ETFs (or similar vehicles) but not before. That's potentially a big wave ($1 T or more). It may or may not happen this cycle.

nice post smooth. I think the total cryptocurrency market cap will be over 1 trill by 2021... exciting times ahead guys 

[KeyJockey]

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

I had that happen...right around the time of the market top in 2013.

It is a bearish indicator. It means that the wave of FOMO has reached the masses...

Honestly I absolutely agree with you that this will happen... only we're really not there yet, IMHO.

My example of people "finally coming around" is only a couple out of literally DOZENS that I know, who *could* come around and who still have not.  NOT by a LONG SHOT have "most people" even considered "coming around" yet... LOL

YES, When the proverbial cab-driver and shoeshine-boy are giving out crypto-coin tips, then YEAH of course that's the bearish sign of peak-bubble-top.

But I sincerely believe we are still far, far away from that time.

Let me postulate here, gentlemen, that BOTH sides of this debate are probably right?

Perhaps we'll see an epic hockey-stick run-up of bitcoin even a further 10X from today's $5,000-ish price, to maybe a "crazy mind-boggling unbelievable impossible" $50,000-per-฿ era... and THEN you'll be hearing crypto-tips from the cabdriver, LOL, and THEN the expected and long-overdue 50% to 80% crash back DOWN to "only" $10,000-ish per coin will happen.

Lives will be ruined, crypto will be "dead", longtime naysayers will smugly declare they "told us so", etc etc etc.

And a long bear market over several years (like we endured after 2013 with the price slowly bleeding out from $1,000 to $800 to $400 to $200... before it *finally* started to come back up, to $600-ish just ONE YEAR AGO (!!!) from whence it's run today to almost $5K) will start again, "down" even more from $10K to maybe $5K-ish...

And THEN the dawn will break and things will reverse *again* and we'll regain $10K then soon enough $50K... and then it'll be off to the races once again in a cycle that'll run from $50,000 to the $100K's and maybe at nearly full global adoption some day, peak $1-Million per coin (when a single satoshi will be... a penny).

Maybe it'll happen this way, or maybe not.  Maybe we're all RIGHT and there'll be an 80% crash in the future but maybe this current bull-run ain't over yet.

Or (most likely) HoneyBadger will surprise us all and do something totally different from all of these speculations, LOL

[smooth]

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

I had that happen...right around the time of the market top in 2013.

It is a bearish indicator. It means that the wave of FOMO has reached the masses...

Honestly I absolutely agree with you that this will happen... only we're really not there yet, IMHO.

My example of people "finally coming around" is only a couple out of literally DOZENS that I know, who *could* come around and who still have not.  NOT by a LONG SHOT have "most people" even considered "coming around" yet... LOL

A couple out of dozens is a large portion when considering exponential growth of viral ideas. Compare this with 2014 when no one gave a shit about crypto and you would literally have to poll hundreds or thousands of Average Joes (limited to AJs with money) to find someone interested in it much less owning it.

This does not mean there is literally no one left who could buy who hasn't bought yet. Most likely, by the time we realize that has happened it will be too late and the price will already be crashing, unless you are able to call the exact top (unlikely). It means we are getting close. The balance of risks has become more symmetric. The remaining upside is quite comparable to the plausible downside.

Note, I'm talking about short to mid-term upside without some sort of major change to conditions. I'm not talking about some plausible but fairly remote scenario where crypto replaces gold or the dollar as a global reserve currency for example. I'm making a short- to mid-term trading observation based on current market psychology and demographics. If you think that outcome is likely (enough) and are comfortable with large drawdowns while waiting for it then by all means buy/hold/increase your long term holdings.

[mnemonicsoup]

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

I had that happen...right around the time of the market top in 2013.

It is a bearish indicator. It means that the wave of FOMO has reached the masses. The only difference at that point is how many decide to buy and how much, but the important fact is that there are really no more big wave of people to reach (at least not ones with money). When Mayweather and Paris Hilton are promoting ICOs, when it is being covered on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. every day, who is left? Price gains are certainly still possible, but the risks have become a lot more symmetric.

There is one more wave to reach and that is conservative institutionsl money that will allocate to crypto as an asset class given ETFs (or similar vehicles) but not before. That's potentially a big wave ($1 T or more). It may or may not happen this cycle.

I'm not sure that this is the right interpretation. I was one of the people who inquired one of my friends "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?" in 2013. But he didn't convince me to get involved, and when it crashed it confirmed my doubts. So I was very late.

Back then I also saw that interest around me but just like me, almost none of the people I knew got involved.

Now, things have changed, I know quite a few people (for example a befriended actor, a young female architect, another guy who's always between jobs) who neither have a lot of money nor have ever invested before but they are putting a little into crypto. But it's still only a small percentage of the people I know.

And I know all kinds people with lots of money who have not (yet) invested in crypto. I just met a very wealthy couple from Los Angeles and they haven't even heard of Bitcoin. (I couldn't believe it). This is, of course, unusual but I think crypto is still far away from the masses.

So, "who is left"? I would say it's the 99%. Crypto is not just interesting to the classic wealthy investor types but to all kinds of people from all walks of life. And it's just starting.

But with all the nonsense coins and ICOs there is also a lot of potential for market correction. If you look at the dotcom bubble, most companies went broke but the few that emerged have grown much larger than before the bubble popped.

It will be interesting to see if it will be the ONE cryptocurrency to emerge or if the future will have a multitude of successful cryptocurrencies.

A strong correction would be nice, because i would like to invest more but I'm not counting on it to happen before a substantial rise and then it will be questionable if we will even see the current levels again.

Edit: I just read your last comment, I guess you're right just not sure we will see a correction at this level. Who knows...

Edit2: Another thing, people always quote the burst of dotcom bubble as to why crypto has to burst but there was only one dotcom crash so far (17 years ago) and we already had one big Bitcoin crash, so perhaps that was the one.

I'm not saying there won't be a crash, I'm just not sure that it's as inevitable as some make it out to be.

[KeyJockey]

Thanks, smooth... and thanks everyone for this thread lately.  Great discussion overall.

I'm still optimistic, however YES it's possible a re-emerging bear sentiment could be right.  I admit that this last China Scare Drop for some reason hit me harder than I've been accustomed to lately (even my wife noticed) -- I still didn't DO anything about it, still HODL'ing, but I was open eyes paying ATTENTION much more than usual for some reason. Maybe instinct? LOL

It's unrealistic for anyone to expect to call a top exactly, so as long as we're still reasonably close to our peaks lately ($4K-ish for BTC, still over $100-ish XMR) I'm personally gonna assume that the bull-run is still ON and we're just takin' a lil' breather here.

However if/when things really start to turn DOWN again, I expect most of us here will be able to see it happening long before giving back most of these nice gains that we've booked "long-term on-paper" over the last year-plus.

There will likely come a time when a flip out of crypto into more tangible diversified assets will be the smart move for nearly everyone here. I trust that all the intelligence and astute observations here in this thread will help all of us do that, in time as appropriate.

Thanks again for everyone's contributions, youze guyz R da greatest

[smooth]

To clarify I'm not pointing to a bearish sentiment (though one could point not only to the China news but to the increased regulatory pressure from the SEC in the US, Canada, Singapore, and others as potentially bearish) as much as to increased downside risk and decreased short term upside.

Personally I am acting on this belief by reducing my risk profile in crypto positions to those I'm more comfortable holding through a possible correction or even bear market, but that doesn't mean selling all or going short.

Monero in particular I haven't yet sold any at all (in a long time), but I'm considering lightening up on that too here. >100 USD/XMR and >1 billion USD cap is great, but again, short- to mid-term, relatively reduced upside and increased risk.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Sticking to a plan is far easier said than done. The closer you get to hitting your price target, the more difficult it becomes to resist selling early. I'm finally on the home stretch and it is every bit as excruciating as I expected. But I will wait out another long bear market if it comes to it, because I'm not selling a fucking thing below my target.

[Freshmen]

[Mandatory Upgrade] Monero 0.11.0.0 "Helium Hydra" Released

The GUI binaries are forthcoming and their download links will be appended once they are finalized.

https://getmonero.org/2017/09/07/monero-0.11.0.0-released.html

If Monero was a lady in reality, actually then your description of a proper lady would have attracted a lot but we have a slight problem here and that is it is a crypto currency and we don't have time to watch her taking rest before putting on a great show. I hope your lady gets this in her head soon before being replaced.

[rinus]

Sticking to a plan is far easier said than done. The closer you get to hitting your price target, the more difficult it becomes to resist selling early. I'm finally on the home stretch and it is every bit as excruciating as I expected. But I will wait out another long bear market if it comes to it, because I'm not selling a fucking thing below my target.

and whats your target if i may ask , i dont want to sell any more xmr below 500... and even then im only selling a very small portion

[CryptoPH]

How many people here have at least one friend or family member who have recently -- out of the blue -- asked you to tell them again, "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?"

I had that happen...right around the time of the market top in 2013.

It is a bearish indicator. It means that the wave of FOMO has reached the masses...

Honestly I absolutely agree with you that this will happen... only we're really not there yet, IMHO.

My example of people "finally coming around" is only a couple out of literally DOZENS that I know, who *could* come around and who still have not.  NOT by a LONG SHOT have "most people" even considered "coming around" yet... LOL

YES, When the proverbial cab-driver and shoeshine-boy are giving out crypto-coin tips, then YEAH of course that's the bearish sign of peak-bubble-top.

But I sincerely believe we are still far, far away from that time.

Let me postulate here, gentlemen, that BOTH sides of this debate are probably right?

Perhaps we'll see an epic hockey-stick run-up of bitcoin even a further 10X from today's $5,000-ish price, to maybe a "crazy mind-boggling unbelievable impossible" $50,000-per-฿ era... and THEN you'll be hearing crypto-tips from the cabdriver, LOL, and THEN the expected and long-overdue 50% to 80% crash back DOWN to "only" $10,000-ish per coin will happen.

Lives will be ruined, crypto will be "dead", longtime naysayers will smugly declare they "told us so", etc etc etc.

And a long bear market over several years (like we endured after 2013 with the price slowly bleeding out from $1,000 to $800 to $400 to $200... before it *finally* started to come back up, to $600-ish just ONE YEAR AGO (!!!) from whence it's run today to almost $5K) will start again, "down" even more from $10K to maybe $5K-ish...

And THEN the dawn will break and things will reverse *again* and we'll regain $10K then soon enough $50K... and then it'll be off to the races once again in a cycle that'll run from $50,000 to the $100K's and maybe at nearly full global adoption some day, peak $1-Million per coin (when a single satoshi will be... a penny).

Maybe it'll happen this way, or maybe not.  Maybe we're all RIGHT and there'll be an 80% crash in the future but maybe this current bull-run ain't over yet.

Or (most likely) HoneyBadger will surprise us all and do something totally different from all of these speculations, LOL

Do you have any timeline when we reach $500K?
Or else John McAfee will eat his ... on national tv. I don't want to see that. 
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887024683379544065?lang=en

[johnalan]

To clarify I'm not pointing to a bearish sentiment (though one could point not only to the China news but to the increased regulatory pressure from the SEC in the US, Canada, Singapore, and others as potentially bearish) as much as to increased downside risk and decreased short term upside.

Personally I am acting on this belief by reducing my risk profile in crypto positions to those I'm more comfortable holding through a possible correction or even bear market, but that doesn't mean selling all or going short.

Monero in particular I haven't yet sold any at all (in a long time), but I'm considering lightening up on that too here. >100 USD/XMR and >1 billion USD cap is great, but again, short- to mid-term, relatively reduced upside and increased risk.

Very interesting posts smooth. Also I respect your work.

Are you never expecting XMR to go big time then? Like 3K-5KUSD?

You sentiment seems to indicate this kind of growth is impossible due to saturation of the market.

EDIT: Also love to hear from Aminorex on this.

[KeyJockey]

Do you have any timeline when we reach $500K?

Certainly impossible before next Tuesday at 7:00pm, but definitely should happen sometime before Tuesday, September 7th... 2117 

Or else John McAfee will eat his ... on national tv. I don't want to see that. 

Well, presumably your TV has an OFF button? Or you're Alex? 

[smooth]

To clarify I'm not pointing to a bearish sentiment (though one could point not only to the China news but to the increased regulatory pressure from the SEC in the US, Canada, Singapore, and others as potentially bearish) as much as to increased downside risk and decreased short term upside.

Personally I am acting on this belief by reducing my risk profile in crypto positions to those I'm more comfortable holding through a possible correction or even bear market, but that doesn't mean selling all or going short.

Monero in particular I haven't yet sold any at all (in a long time), but I'm considering lightening up on that too here. >100 USD/XMR and >1 billion USD cap is great, but again, short- to mid-term, relatively reduced upside and increased risk.

Very interesting posts smooth. Also I respect your work.

Are you never expecting XMR to go big time then? Like 3K-5KUSD?

You sentiment seems to indicate this kind of growth is impossible due to saturation of the market.

EDIT: Also love to hear from Aminorex on this.

I never said anything about never. I'm referring to short and medium term. I see a good possibility this current bull run in crypto may be close to running out of steem. That doesn't mean crypto doesn't have a bigger future but it requires both internal and external changes, which may come more slowly.

Then again, nothing is guaranteed. I may be completely wrong.

[Febo]

Sticking to a plan is far easier said than done. The closer you get to hitting your price target, the more difficult it becomes to resist selling early. I'm finally on the home stretch and it is every bit as excruciating as I expected. But I will wait out another long bear market if it comes to it, because I'm not selling a fucking thing below my target.

and whats your target if i may ask , i dont want to sell any more xmr below 500... and even then im only selling a very small portion

I said long ago I will sell 10% when reach $50 and then 10% more when reach $100.  I did not do nothing ofcourse. Just buy some more. At least none for over $100. Not yet.

If we get 2014 again, i doubt I will do anything.It will just be a depressing 2018.  I will survive that way much easier then if sold my precious Monero and suddenly would be on sale for 5 times higher price and could buy back 5 times less.

[cAPSLOCK]

I never said anything about never. I'm referring to short and medium term. I see a good possibility this current bull run in crypto may be close to running out of steem. That doesn't mean crypto doesn't have a bigger future but it requires both internal and external changes, which may come more slowly.

Then again, nothing is guaranteed. I may be completely wrong.

I see what you did there...