[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Mynero]

I'm referring to short and medium term.

Sounds very reasonable, but I think people may have different definitions for short, medium and long terms. What would constitute short and medium terms to you? A few weeks, a few months or a few years?

[Anon136]

And THEN the dawn will break and things will reverse *again* and we'll regain $10K then soon enough $50K... and then it'll be off to the races once again in a cycle that'll run from $50,000 to the $100K's and maybe at nearly full global adoption some day, peak $1-Million per coin (when a single satoshi will be... a penny).

Whether or not bitcoin comes back after that will be all down to utility. Did the community manage to solve scaling? And privacy? Are transactions cheap enough to be competitive with the card companies for every day commerce? Those things dont matter so much right now because its a speculative bubble. But some day when that bubble gets shaken out it will be the only thing that matters.

[Hueristic]

Sticking to a plan is far easier said than done. The closer you get to hitting your price target, the more difficult it becomes to resist selling early. I'm finally on the home stretch and it is every bit as excruciating as I expected. But I will wait out another long bear market if it comes to it, because I'm not selling a fucking thing below my target.

and whats your target if i may ask , i dont want to sell any more xmr below 500... and even then im only selling a very small portion

I said long ago I will sell 10% when reach $50 and then 10% more when reach $100.  I did not do nothing ofcourse. Just buy some more. At least none for over $100. Not yet.

If we get 2014 again, i doubt I will do anything.It will just be a depressing 2018.  I will survive that way much easier then if sold my precious Monero and suddenly would be on sale for 5 times higher price and could buy back 5 times less.

I can't help myself I buy about .02BTC every week no matter what the price.

AFA the second bold, Yup burned once I won't let it happen again.

The upside outweighs the downside bye such a huge margin that I cannot understand anyone who would think selling in any case less than an emergency is shooting themselfs in the foot. Never forget we had no warning of the alphabay adoption until they had already loaded up their wagon. that can easily happen again at any time.

[nogoodcoin]

There is no positive news from the economy of the United States. I think this is a positive effect on Monero and it will raise its price.

I think Moreno's price is going to go up to $ 300. Of course this will not be short term, but in the long term (I mean 1-2 years), this is not impossible.

[rangedriver]

Prolonged BTC bear market. Long-term BTC waves tend to follow patterns of multiples of 4 or 5. Peaks at ~$250.... slides to ~$50. Up to ~$1000.... back down to ~$250. Peaks at $5000.... long descent to ~$1000 - $1250. Then back up to $16000 - $20000.

Having said that, while the temptation is to draw a parallel with the bear market that followed the 2013 peak there's some key differences. The bear market of 2014 was just as unexpected as the Nov 2013 peak that preceded it and was pretty ugly. The mood this time is more upbeat, defined by expectation, preparation and opportunity.

So I wouldn't be surprised if a 12 month bear market down to ~$1000 actually manifests itself as a 6 month bear market down to $2500 before rising again.

Clearly any bear market will drag ALT/USD prices down with it, but ALT/BTC prices for the strongest cryptocurrencies (Monero included) will likely remain stable, if not bullish for those not wanting to evacuate into FIAT.

A useful indicator will be the Ethereum price. If a BTC bear market is confirmed and ETH/BTC descends then it would point to another ugly bear market for all crypto. If ETH/BTC starts to rise then it would imply people have a desire to stay in crypto but merely recognise that BTC is currently overpriced for where it is right now. And if that happens then that's good news for Monero (at least from the perspective of speculation.)

Throw in a couple of hardware wallets into the equation and you've got a confident forecast for XMR overall.

[Anon136]

Prolonged BTC bear market. Long-term BTC waves tend to follow patterns of multiples of 4 or 5. Peaks at ~$250.... slides to ~$50. Up to ~$1000.... back down to ~$250. Peaks at $5000.... long descent to ~$1000 - $1250. Then back up to $16000 - $20000.

I know its stupid. But I really think it's different this time. I think there are too many normie institutional investors looking for a BTFD price. That never was the case before. I bet ~4000 is the cyclical low. I mean where the eff does one find value in this market any more? Fixed income? Stawks? Give me a break. There is no where else interesting for one to put their money. Bitcoin offers more upside potential than even retail debt at a fraction of the risk. That's why this radical rally happened in the first place. And its not like anything changed.

*edit* Yea ok there is precious metals. And they are probably actually finally a good buy because of this. But they are such a small market that they could increase 100 time with plenty of capital left over to sustain or propel bitcoins price higher.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Throw in a couple of hardware wallets into the equation and you've got a confident forecast for XMR overall.

It's worth noting that the crypto markets don't respond much to new developments (at least not directly), but more to announcements of third party adoption by exchanges and marketplaces. This has been observed with pretty much every major XMR movement since its inception. That said, I'm confident new developments play an important role in driving third party adoption.

[Billy Bunter]

Throw in a couple of hardware wallets into the equation and you've got a confident forecast for XMR overall.

It's worth noting that the crypto markets don't respond much to new developments (at least not directly), but more to announcements of third party adoption by exchanges and marketplaces. This has been observed with pretty much every major XMR movement since its inception. That said, I'm confident new developments play an important role in driving third party adoption.

That's mostly true. However, I'd like to believe that in the case where a currency, such as Monero, has had no light wallets and no hardware wallets for its entire existence (absent one or two unofficial ones), this news might make more than a splash.

Perhaps I'm overly optimistic, but, as rangedriver has pointed out previously, hardware wallets, in particular, are the sine qua non for HNWI investors. That alone might give the market monero's price a much-needed giddy-up.

[mnemonicsoup]

Prolonged BTC bear market. Long-term BTC waves tend to follow patterns of multiples of 4 or 5. Peaks at ~$250.... slides to ~$50. Up to ~$1000.... back down to ~$250. Peaks at $5000.... long descent to ~$1000 - $1250. Then back up to $16000 - $20000.

I know its stupid. But I really think it's different this time. I think there are too many normie institutional investors looking for a BTFD price. That never was the case before. I bet ~4000 is the cyclical low. I mean where the eff does one find value in this market any more? Fixed income? Stawks? Give me a break. There is no where else interesting for one to put their money. Bitcoin offers more upside potential than even retail debt at a fraction of the risk. That's why this radical rally happened in the first place. And its not like anything changed.

*edit* Yea ok there is precious metals. And they are probably actually finally a good buy because of this. But they are such a small market that they could increase 100 time with plenty of capital left over to sustain or propel bitcoins price higher.

This exactly how I feel. We ain't seen nothing yet.

Precious metals are a nice store of value and perhaps insurance for bad times but they have lost a lot of appeal lately.

I think that Clif High is to be taken with a grain of salt but some of his statements are good food for thought. He says that a lot of people invest into crypto thinking that they at some point will go out with a lot of dollars but that very soon nobody is going to want to get out of crypto anymore as the dollar will be less desirable.

I am not planing going to go out of XMR anytime soon, even if we see a strong correction. I am in for the long run, it is my categorical imperative.

[dead_m92]

Guys what do you think about monero right now? it has been quiet for more than a week, it has a lot of potential to recover and go to $150 again.. This issue with china governemnt are killing altcoin's prices.
But i really trust in monero, it can recover soon, what do you think guys? it is a good opportunity to buy right now or not?
I bought 0.30 monero yesterday, i dont know if should i buy more or not.

[cAPSLOCK]

This is an interesting time.

In the short term markets tend to move quickly and contrarily to investor sentiment.  Thus the elevator shaft from BTC 49XX.  The sentiment is trending bearish now.  I wonder if the faithful are putting their money where their mouths are.

If we truly believe we might be entering a bear to 3800 or 2800 or beyond... why would we stay in Crypto?  It is far more profitable to sell for USD, pay the taxes and buy back in next year at 70% cost or perhaps half price.

A more cynical way to put it is, sometimes it seems like markets do the thing that will hurt the MOST people.

Assuming that cynicism is even partly true... What would that be right about now?

[owlcatz]

Guys what do you think about monero right now? it has been quiet for more than a week, it has a lot of potential to recover and go to $150 again.. This issue with china governemnt are killing altcoin's prices.
But i really trust in monero, it can recover soon, what do you think guys? it is a good opportunity to buy right now or not?
I bought 0.30 monero yesterday, i dont know if should i buy more or not.

I've been playing long on XMR since literally June 2014, so ~100 dollars to me is no big deal at all. Hell, I'd not worry at 25 USD, i'd simply buy even more.

We have a hard fork coming, new binaries, new fixes etc etc.... Ledger support someday I heard too... I see good things ahead. 

Anyhow, I'm estimating an ATH of 180+ before end of the year.  [Fake remind me button here]

Disclaimer - I am simply guessing, do not take this as investment advice ever!

[CK_Zephyrus]

Important reminder to all miners: you still have about 4 days left to update your daemons to 0.11.0.0 before the fork. Updating is mandatory, 0.10.3.1 will be forked off the network at block 1400000.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Throw in a couple of hardware wallets into the equation and you've got a confident forecast for XMR overall.

It's worth noting that the crypto markets don't respond much to new developments (at least not directly), but more to announcements of third party adoption by exchanges and marketplaces. This has been observed with pretty much every major XMR movement since its inception. That said, I'm confident new developments play an important role in driving third party adoption.

That's mostly true. However, I'd like to believe that in the case where a currency, such as Monero, has had no light wallets and no hardware wallets for its entire existence (absent one or two unofficial ones), this news might make more than a splash.

Perhaps I'm overly optimistic, but, as rangedriver has pointed out previously, hardware wallets, in particular, are the sine qua non for HNWI investors. That alone might give the market monero's price a much-needed giddy-up.

Crypto markets are fueled by FOMO. People don't buy because "oh yay XMR finally has feature X, time to buy." They buy because "holy shit it's now or never." Hardware wallets might make more investors comfortable the next time that "holy shit" moment comes, but the feature itself doesn't create that imperative.

[Billy Bunter]

Throw in a couple of hardware wallets into the equation and you've got a confident forecast for XMR overall.

It's worth noting that the crypto markets don't respond much to new developments (at least not directly), but more to announcements of third party adoption by exchanges and marketplaces. This has been observed with pretty much every major XMR movement since its inception. That said, I'm confident new developments play an important role in driving third party adoption.

That's mostly true. However, I'd like to believe that in the case where a currency, such as Monero, has had no light wallets and no hardware wallets for its entire existence (absent one or two unofficial ones), this news might make more than a splash.

Perhaps I'm overly optimistic, but, as rangedriver has pointed out previously, hardware wallets, in particular, are the sine qua non for HNWI investors. That alone might give the market monero's price a much-needed giddy-up.

Crypto markets are fueled by FOMO. People don't buy because "oh yay XMR finally has feature X, time to buy." They buy because "holy shit it's now or never." Hardware wallets might make more investors comfortable the next time that "holy shit" moment comes, but the feature itself doesn't create that imperative.

You don't think the GUI had an effect on Monero's price? I do.

[Nathan047]

There is no positive news from the economy of the United States. I think this is a positive effect on Monero and it will raise its price.
...

Actually the dollar is going up and jobs are coming back with Trump’s threats to heavily tax businesses outsourcing jobs, so at the moment the economy is getting better.

[KeyJockey]

One thing I find it hard to remember always is that humans are REALLY BAD at dealing with exponential increases of things.

We just have so little experience with it, that when something like crypto-currency comes along once in a lifetime, it simply can't compare "long term" to anything we are used to. So we fall back in the rut of looking at recent changes and thinking that's the whole picture.

But you gotta REALLY LOOK AT the wide-view from time to time, step back and see the whole thing.

Log-Scale charts help with that, I think -- for example here's bitcoin log-scale zoomed out FIVE YEARS 'way back from nearly the beginning until TODAY:



Doesn't look like so much of a big scary recent-bubble, "OMG OMG, we are up so much it's just gonna have to crash soon !11!!!11!!" from this POV now, does it?

LOL    

Yes, anyway... sure, sure... we could be starting a downturn, nobody can know for sure.

So, personally I'm gonna keep a very close eye on everything (even more than usual) next couple weeks, and IF we dip too far into the $3K range on BTC, $400's on BCH, and/or back under $100 on XMR (just ballpark off the top of my head) yeah then I'll consider the (maybe?) bearish trend starting here, and maybe then move some profit from crypto into something like SILVER *but* certainly not dollars, yuk.

But failing that, for me, this "lull" now after hitting $5K is still too little too soon to really call the running-bull rally as "over" yet...


P.S. {Edit}

I think that Clif High is to be taken with a grain of salt but some of his statements are good food for thought...

Agree about Clif and his web-bot... of course, he doesn't get everything right (nobody does) but overall IMHO his big-picture stuff has been amazingly spot-on accurate. And one thing he's been sticking to -- without a single waver at all for over a year -- has been the 'bots call for BTC at $13,800 around next February 2018. 

So unless we see a major, major dip that hits hard & fast across the board, and one that damages ALL coins (Monero included) I'm personally gonna really try hard to HODL TIGHT for at least these next six months, at least just to see if this BTC at almost $14K prediction *does* come to pass, and not miss the train IF it does... choo-choo LOL

[Johnny Mnemonic]

You don't think the GUI had an effect on Monero's price? I do.

Not a significant effect, no.

To be clear, I'm talking about the major price movements the coin has seen. XMR only had a few.

The ones I can remember were:

1. The Mintpal pump
2. BCX FUD (dump)
3. Risto's accumulation announcement
4. The SIGAINT endorsement and AlphaBay news
5. Riccardo's "big news" announcement
6. Bithumb announcement

It's also worth pointing out that none of the above ever amounted to anything. The XMR price dumped as soon as Mintpal listed it, BCX never had an exploit to begin with, Risto's announcement was probably hot air, XMR did not take over AlphaBay, Fluffy's "big news" wasn't that exciting after all, and the Koreans on Bithumb didn't bid the price to the moon.

Meanwhile (and contrary to wild predictions), LMDB, the GUI, RingCT and other major developments were met with relatively unimpressive price movements.

The takeaway: If you want to move the price, nothing beats good old fashioned bullshit.

[Hueristic]

.

You don't think the GUI had an effect on Monero's price? I do.

Of course it did but not in the order of magnitudes he is talking about.

Edit: w00ps had this page up too long without refreshing.

[s1gs3gv]

Looks to me like we have a test of support @ the late 2013 high ahead of us, then some consolidation, before further ATHs.