[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rangedriver]

Yes of course there is a correction coming (or a Dark Age).  That is a very clear trend in the BTC (for 6 years), and now other Crypto charts. Lots of ppl pretend it won't happen, and they will suffer the most with lack of preparation.

Each huge wave up is followed by a retracement to just above the previous high.  In this wave up, the start was around $300 on BTC, the high looks like $5000, and the previous high was $1200, which is where it is heading now, and will mark the floor of this current downtrend. The waves last a couple of years on average, but there is a wide variation.

$259.34 (2013 Q2 peak)

x 4.48446

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

x 4.28116

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

x 4.38281 (averaged multiplier)

$21822 (target peak)

******

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

/ 4.4051

$264.01 (average floor = ~2013 Q2 peak)

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

/ 4.39024 (averaged multiplier)

$1134.10 (target average floor = ~2013 Q4 peak)

[cAPSLOCK]

Yes of course there is a correction coming (or a Dark Age).  That is a very clear trend in the BTC (for 6 years), and now other Crypto charts. Lots of ppl pretend it won't happen, and they will suffer the most with lack of preparation.

Each huge wave up is followed by a retracement to just above the previous high.  In this wave up, the start was around $300 on BTC, the high looks like $5000, and the previous high was $1200, which is where it is heading now, and will mark the floor of this current downtrend. The waves last a couple of years on average, but there is a wide variation.

$259.34 (2013 Q2 peak)

x 4.48446

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

x 4.28116

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

x 4.38281 (averaged multiplier)

$21822 (target peak)

******

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

/ 4.4051

$264.01 (average floor = ~2013 Q2 peak)

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

/ 4.39024 (averaged multiplier)

$1134.10 (target average floor = ~2013 Q4 peak)

Thing is from my experience once markets show this sort of pattern to the extent it is recognizable they end up getting frontrun, or baked into investor consciousness and ironically they then dissipate.  About the time people discover the path to "easy money" and cheerfully get on it the cliff catches them by surprise.

In my opinion this is our current conundrum.  We do not know if it's going to be the same this time.  Which kind of clif (if there is one) is coming?  The kind we fall off of and die?  Or the kind we stand at the base of cursing we sold all our climbing gear because we were sure of the big bad bear. (Much words! Such mixed metaphor!  Wow!)

Differences from 2014...

1.  The crypto market has matured to the point that we are seeing serious coverage in the financial media
2.  We no longer have a single point of failure (darkmarkets/gox)
3.  The alt market is a serious part of the cryptosphere.  This is good and bad because:
   a.  Legitimate projects have sprung up to either blossom into their own right or at least provide a testbed for BTC (monero, litecoin)
   b.  Speculative projects have come which have an effect of being a mixed blessing in the crypto space (ETH)
   c.  ICOs.   And all the scammy pyramid schemes that are reminding us of the dotcom bubble but a sleazy version
4.  Tech has advanced with hardware wallets, payment gateways, etc.
5.  BTC is maturing as it collectively decides how to handle it's limitations.
6.  We are on the threshold of 2nd layer functionality.

So my first question is... can we really expect another 2-3 year bear?  It just seems so unlikely considering the momentum we now see... 

Second question:  what does this mean for Monero?

If Bitcoin pulls back, XMR will too probably.  But XMR is uncoupled from bitcoin in a special way.  It's kind of like Texas.  When the USA experiences financial turbulence there is always some connection to the oil markets.  And Texas usually is insulated from the sorts of chaos other large economies within the US face.  The housing bubble was an example.  Housing prices in TX were more stable during that time.  In a similar way the utility XMR offers may stabilize it at least against BTC both because of the unique use cases (eg. darkmarkets) as well as the potential value transfer case where for example Chinese crypto flight could end up in in part going to XMR for privacy sake.

Interesting times indeed.  Thanks for the curse, China.

[rangedriver]

In my opinion this is our current conundrum.  We do not know if it's going to be the same this time.

Agree completely.

[KeyJockey]

In my opinion this is our current conundrum.  We do not know if it's going to be the same this time.

Agree completely.

Yep... and to the newbies, bear this in mind going forward IF we are getting into 'dark times' now.

When I first started putting money into crypto, it was right after the first big Mt Gox pop over $1000.  I wasn't able to get an account opened on Gox (thank god) but I started buying BTC from coinbase right around $950 when it first "dipped" below $1K.  I thought to myself, "Oh man, this is gonna be easy money: it's certainly gonna get back up over a thousand right away, I'll make a quick 10%!" (yeah right).

Then of course it continued down down down $800 $700 $500 $300 and finally bottomed-out some damn crazy low point like $250 or $180 or I dunno exactly, don't even really wanna THINK about those dark days any more, now that we've left them so far behind, LOL

All during that time I learned more about it all and just kept buying more whenever I could afford it.  Lowered my per-coin average cost to like $550 by the time things turned around (little over a year ago) and we *finally* got back to $550 "break even" then $700 then $1000, $2000, $4000, and now (maybe?) peaked here just over $5000 (?) per coin.

During the DARK days I always thought about, "What it must be like for the "real early adopter guys" who got in ahead of me, those lucky guys who bought bitcoin when it was in the prior $10 to $100 cycle?"  Did they care that much about seeing it go down from $1000 to $500?

Yes, of course you still "care" -- it's easy to get used to seeing the nice big numbers that you see!  BUT also, no, you really don't "care" that much any more either, not once you have long since cleared your break-even price and there is virtually NO CHANCE that your average-buy price will ever be seen again.

This seems to be the MAIN THING about crypto, to me... if you just get IN and stay IN long enough, just WAIT a couple years...?  Then, yes, you too will be in this club where you don't have to really worry any more about these crazy ups and downs. It takes a while to get there but it's a really good place to be once you arrive!

This is really essentially what it means to be a HODL'ER.

And even if it all goes to shit and crashes and burns in the end, it's for damn sure still BETTER than leaving your money in the bank earning some lousy 0.05% interest rate and subject to the upcoming "bail-in" confiscations.



My two satoshi's for the day

[johnalan]

In my opinion this is our current conundrum.  We do not know if it's going to be the same this time.

Agree completely.

Yep... and to the newbies, bear this in mind going forward IF we are getting into 'dark times' now.

When I first started putting money into crypto, it was right after the first big Mt Gox pop over $1000.  I wasn't able to get an account opened on Gox (thank god) but I started buying BTC from coinbase right around $950 when it first "dipped" below $1K.  I thought to myself, "Oh man, this is gonna be easy money: it's certainly gonna get back up over a thousand right away, I'll make a quick 10%!" (yeah right).

Then of course it continued down down down $800 $700 $500 $300 and finally bottomed-out some damn crazy low point like $250 or $180 or I dunno exactly, don't even really wanna THINK about those dark days any more, now that we've left them so far behind, LOL

All during that time I learned more about it all and just kept buying more whenever I could afford it.  Lowered my per-coin average cost to like $550 by the time things turned around (little over a year ago) and we *finally* got back to $550 "break even" then $700 then $1000, $2000, $4000, and now (maybe?) peaked here just over $5000 (?) per coin.

During the DARK days I always thought about, "What it must be like for the "real early adopter guys" who got in ahead of me, those lucky guys who bought bitcoin when it was in the prior $10 to $100 cycle?"  Did they care that much about seeing it go down from $1000 to $500?

Yes, of course you still "care" -- it's easy to get used to seeing the nice big numbers that you see!  BUT also, no, you really don't "care" that much any more either, not once you have long since cleared your break-even price and there is virtually NO CHANCE that your average-buy price will ever be seen again.

This seems to be the MAIN THING about crypto, to me... if you just get IN and stay IN long enough, just WAIT a couple years...?  Then, yes, you too will be in this club where you don't have to really worry any more about these crazy ups and downs. It takes a while to get there but it's a really good place to be once you arrive!

This is really essentially what it means to be a HODL'ER.

And even if it all goes to shit and crashes and burns in the end, it's for damn sure still BETTER than leaving your money in the bank earning some lousy 0.05% interest rate and subject to the upcoming "bail-in" confiscations.



My two satoshi's for the day

Quality post, enjoyed the read. - Agree too!

[johnalan]

In my opinion this is our current conundrum.  We do not know if it's going to be the same this time.

Agree completely.

Another great cAPSLOCK post, and I agree with both you and Rangedriver.

I'm personally very bullish on crypto and XMR and haven't sold any in these more sketchy times.

Interested to see if Aminorex shares this view, I know he was very bullish for XMR in 2018, which wouldn't coincide with an expectation of major drop in market.

[Majormax]

During the DARK days I always thought about, "What it must be like for the "real early adopter guys" who got in ahead of me, those lucky guys who bought bitcoin when it was in the prior $10 to $100 cycle?"  Did they care that much about seeing it go down from $1000 to $500?

Yes, of course you still "care" -- it's easy to get used to seeing the nice big numbers that you see!  BUT also, no, you really don't "care" that much any more either, not once you have long since cleared your break-even price and there is virtually NO CHANCE that your average-buy price will ever be seen again.

This seems to be the MAIN THING about crypto, to me... if you just get IN and stay IN long enough, just WAIT a couple years...?  Then, yes, you too will be in this club where you don't have to really worry any more about these crazy ups and downs. It takes a while to get there but it's a really good place to be once you arrive!

This is really essentially what it means to be a HODL'ER.

And even if it all goes to shit and crashes and burns in the end, it's for damn sure still BETTER than leaving your money in the bank earning some lousy 0.05% interest rate and subject to the upcoming "bail-in" confiscations.



My two satoshi's for the day

I did the same thing, but 2 cycles earlier. $35 peak in 2011, and bought on the way down to $4. However, I sold most out for a relatively modest profit in 2012-2013, because the successive adoption cycles were not clear to me, there seemed a risk of total loss, and I have always been a trader.  I spoke to a few Hodlers, True Believers as we called them at that time, who said they would never sell (and who had, in my mind, a ridiculously large and risky holding).

I didn't really get the point until well into the 2013 super-boom, but I believe there is still a risk of total loss in any crypto.

[Dotto]

I could see a midsize bear market, 3-6 months max. BTC bottom around 2k5 max. XMR bottom around .020 max. We´ll see.

Im not putting my money in this scenario.  Im just holding and keeping some dry power for that possibility.

[xaxistech]

Guys what do you think about Monero right now? i am thinking about dumping my moneros, i have 3 on my balance and i think that i can buy more profitable coins right now. Maybe i can use that money to buy some Ark or golem, what do you think about it?
Monero did an incredible growth in the last month, but now it seems a little freezed, what do you think?

[Bitcoinaire]

With all the new crypto hedge funds that have formed this year I can't see a protracted bear market. China closing down its exchanges and the price is $3700, very resilient. HNWI and institutional money are starting to poke around too.

[cAPSLOCK]

Guys what do you think about Monero right now? i am thinking about dumping my moneros, i have 3 on my balance and i think that i can buy more profitable coins right now. Maybe i can use that money to buy some Ark or golem, what do you think about it?
Monero did an incredible growth in the last month, but now it seems a little freezed, what do you think?

I think if you believe you will make more money moving your money from Monero to Ark and Golem then do what you believe.  I know nothing about those though.  Sound like ICOs.

[garytheasshole]

Guys what do you think about Monero right now? i am thinking about dumping my moneros, i have 3 on my balance and i think that i can buy more profitable coins right now. Maybe i can use that money to buy some Ark or golem, what do you think about it?
Monero did an incredible growth in the last month, but now it seems a little freezed, what do you think?

Oh please don't sell your 3 moneros you'll crash the market

[Red_Sanford]

With all the new crypto hedge funds that have formed this year I can't see a protracted bear market. China closing down its exchanges and the price is $3700, very resilient. HNWI and institutional money are starting to poke around too.

The institutional money is making things more volatile but is creating higher bottoms. The whales going long and shorting has a massive influence on the markets because they are still relatively small.

 Many people are buying in but I don't really know if the average person is trading. When I first got in I just held through but I did manage to get in at the beginning of the bull run in the summer of 2016. Late compared to some of you guys around here

[cAPSLOCK]

I could see a midsize bear market, 3-6 months max. BTC bottom around 2k5 max. XMR bottom around .020 max. We´ll see.

Im not putting my money in this scenario.  Im just holding and keeping some dry power for that possibility.

I give this scenario the lions share of the worst case...  sort of like this:

10% = This is a blip on the radar:  New BTC ATH within a month
50% = This is a healthy correction after a lot of growth: New BTC ATH within 2-5 Months
30% = Bear market for 3-6 Months dipping to ~2k and then recovering within a year
10% = Bear Market for 1-3 years dipping well under 2k

Hmm... This post made me sad by reminding me of the old exuberant, but stable Risto.  Sounds like something he would cook up.

[DaveyJones]

I could see a midsize bear market, 3-6 months max. BTC bottom around 2k5 max. XMR bottom around .020 max. We´ll see.

Im not putting my money in this scenario.  Im just holding and keeping some dry power for that possibility.

I give this scenario the lions share of the worst case...  sort of like this:

10% = This is a blip on the radar:  New BTC ATH within a month
50% = This is a healthy correction after a lot of growth: New BTC ATH within 2-5 Months
30% = Bear market for 3-6 Months dipping to ~2k and then recovering within a year
10% = Bear Market for 1-3 years dipping well under 2k

Hmm... This post made me sad by reminding me of the old exuberant, but stable Risto.  Sounds like something he would cook up.

Risto would give the bad scenarios more probability :p

[cAPSLOCK]

I could see a midsize bear market, 3-6 months max. BTC bottom around 2k5 max. XMR bottom around .020 max. We´ll see.

Im not putting my money in this scenario.  Im just holding and keeping some dry power for that possibility.

I give this scenario the lions share of the worst case...  sort of like this:

10% = This is a blip on the radar:  New BTC ATH within a month
50% = This is a healthy correction after a lot of growth: New BTC ATH within 2-5 Months
30% = Bear market for 3-6 Months dipping to ~2k and then recovering within a year
10% = Bear Market for 1-3 years dipping well under 2k

Hmm... This post made me sad by reminding me of the old exuberant, but stable Risto.  Sounds like something he would cook up.

Risto would give the bad scenarios more probability :p

I did realize after cooking up that table that I remain fairly bullish.  But this is also a height of bearishness for me.

[nioc]

Some good posts the last days or so.
I have nothing to add.
I'm just here to get paid for my signature.

[Millionero]

Check out the Analysis thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.5240
MasterLuc doesn't post there any more, but we discuss what he says on Bitcoin Vanga
https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
We could use somebody with fluent Russian.  Google Translate ain't cutting it.



Posting this because bitcoin's price drags Monero up and down with it in the medium to short term.

[Cipherr]

Guys what do you think about Monero right now? i am thinking about dumping my moneros, i have 3 on my balance and i think that i can buy more profitable coins right now. Maybe i can use that money to buy some Ark or golem, what do you think about it?
Monero did an incredible growth in the last month, but now it seems a little freezed, what do you think?

Oh please don't sell your 3 moneros you'll crash the market

Stop being so insecure. He asked a general question. If you dont know anything about the coins he posted, why bother with the energy to be a dick about it? Like you said, its 3 coins, its not like its threatening you or the price action.

[CryptoPH]

In my opinion this is our current conundrum.  We do not know if it's going to be the same this time.

Agree completely.

Yep... and to the newbies, bear this in mind going forward IF we are getting into 'dark times' now.

When I first started putting money into crypto, it was right after the first big Mt Gox pop over $1000.  I wasn't able to get an account opened on Gox (thank god) but I started buying BTC from coinbase right around $950 when it first "dipped" below $1K.  I thought to myself, "Oh man, this is gonna be easy money: it's certainly gonna get back up over a thousand right away, I'll make a quick 10%!" (yeah right).

Then of course it continued down down down $800 $700 $500 $300 and finally bottomed-out some damn crazy low point like $250 or $180 or I dunno exactly, don't even really wanna THINK about those dark days any more, now that we've left them so far behind, LOL

All during that time I learned more about it all and just kept buying more whenever I could afford it.  Lowered my per-coin average cost to like $550 by the time things turned around (little over a year ago) and we *finally* got back to $550 "break even" then $700 then $1000, $2000, $4000, and now (maybe?) peaked here just over $5000 (?) per coin.

During the DARK days I always thought about, "What it must be like for the "real early adopter guys" who got in ahead of me, those lucky guys who bought bitcoin when it was in the prior $10 to $100 cycle?"  Did they care that much about seeing it go down from $1000 to $500?

Yes, of course you still "care" -- it's easy to get used to seeing the nice big numbers that you see!  BUT also, no, you really don't "care" that much any more either, not once you have long since cleared your break-even price and there is virtually NO CHANCE that your average-buy price will ever be seen again.

This seems to be the MAIN THING about crypto, to me... if you just get IN and stay IN long enough, just WAIT a couple years...?  Then, yes, you too will be in this club where you don't have to really worry any more about these crazy ups and downs. It takes a while to get there but it's a really good place to be once you arrive!

This is really essentially what it means to be a HODL'ER.

And even if it all goes to shit and crashes and burns in the end, it's for damn sure still BETTER than leaving your money in the bank earning some lousy 0.05% interest rate and subject to the upcoming "bail-in" confiscations.



My two satoshi's for the day

"During the DARK days I always thought about, "What it must be like for the "real early adopter guys" who got in ahead of me, those lucky guys who bought bitcoin when it was in the prior $10 to $100 cycle?"  Did they care that much about seeing it go down from $1000 to $500?"

This mindset is what I'm still figuring out at the moment. 
I'm trying to understand myself too as i watch my XMR holdings go from average price of $2 to $150 then $80 without doing anything. Imagine those paper gains that were burnt during the up-down cycle. 

Anyway, I want to understand and get used to this feeling of greed and fear within me.