[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Shnikes101]

After the MoneroV fork Monero will be as "anonymous" as Bitcoin.

The few people that don't claim their MoneroV and cash out will be left with both compromised Monero holdings and an ever sinking market value.

For anybody thinking that it's 'smart' not to claim XMV... Wat is smart is to have a protocol where this kind of attack isn't even possible. Don't just blame XMV for attacking Monero, blame Monero for having a critical vulnerability. It's as much a social exploit as a technical one. The technical one makes the social attack possible in the first place. FIX THE PROTOCOL!

Hard to see how this could be done on a protocol level. Anyone can fork, and how can you prevent people exposing their private keys to the new fork if they want to?

I will move my Monero to a new wallet just before the fork, and the original Monero to another new wallet just after. That should solve the problem for me. Of course, many won't bother to do this.

As to the key image attack, there were several mitigations that were discussed and one that I believe has been approved on github and should be included in the upcoming release. To say the Dev team and/or community is doing nothing is false.
Talking about PR 3322.

[1714161446]

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[1714161446]

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[Veseloff]

I have been holding Monero for a long time, at the beginning I was glad when its price grew. But now I'm very upset like many investors, I wonder how long this fall will continue!

[cryptokwuk]

... Anyone can fork, and how can you prevent people exposing their private keys to the new fork if they want to?

That depends entirely on the protocol, we have a few cryptos that are fundamentally impossible to fork.

[Anon136]

Don't just blame XMV for attacking Monero, blame Monero for having a critical vulnerability. It's as much a social exploit as a technical one. The technical one makes the social attack possible in the first place. FIX THE PROTOCOL!

Hard to see how this could be done on a protocol level.

I offered a solution here https://forum.getmonero.org/6/ideas/90040/full-solution-to-ring-signature-partner-reuse-on-fork-chain Unfortunately it's being ignored by all the devs. Maybe they don't check the forum. Not sure. It would have been nice if a developer could have alteast commented on it. But w/e. I assure you that it is not an insoluble problem. This is the key.

The idea is to alter the ring signature partner selection algorithm such that it is functionally random to any outside observer but deterministically derived from factors that both the main chain and fork chain would have in common.

*edit* Never mind.

[Hueristic]

I am all for contrarian viewpoints.  But I just added the above chart magician to my ignore list.  His one trick has gotten old.

Hah, welcome to the club.

What actually happened to Monero in the last two or three weeks ? The price fell by more than 20 percent. I do not think anyone expected this.

The rise was exchange hackers converting NEM to Monero and now we are back to levels where we were when they started.

Also probably fear that more exchanges might start banning Monero.

Nice FUD, More???  Please point out just one.

Your trolling Fud will only fool morons, it is obviouse you are looking to get cheap coins.

We are not fooled by your soft troll here, go back to your shitcoin scams.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/03/17/business/coincheck-stop-handling-three-virtual-currencies-give-owners-anonymity/#.Wq7BLpPwYUE

Thoughts about COINCHECK dropping privacy coins? What does your guts feel, will other exchanges follow suit?

Is there any institutional entity in the U.S. (like SEC, etc.) that could pressure U.S. exchanges to remove coins whose movements are untraceable and blockchains unreadable? If yes, what would the legal supporting arguments be, and what lawful and unlawful means could they utilize?

I can see a constitutional wall they must break before they can break one's right to privacy and one's right to run the software one wishes.

A while ago when BTC was thought to be anonymous it was the boogeyman... Now privacy coins are the target. But isn´t this the whole point? Financial freedom and struggle for individual privacy that brought us here?

That used to be the case largely but now it's mostly just for the money.

Don't just blame XMV for attacking Monero, blame Monero for having a critical vulnerability. It's as much a social exploit as a technical one. The technical one makes the social attack possible in the first place. FIX THE PROTOCOL!

Hard to see how this could be done on a protocol level.

I offered a solution here https://forum.getmonero.org/6/ideas/90040/full-solution-to-ring-signature-partner-reuse-on-fork-chain Unfortunately it's being ignored by all the devs. Maybe they don't check the forum. Not sure. It would have been nice if a developer could have alteast commented on it. But w/e. I assure you that it is not an insoluble problem. This is the key.

The idea is to alter the ring signature partner selection algorithm such that it is functionally random to any outside observer but deterministically derived from factors that both the main chain and fork chain would have in common.

They will answer you if you drop into #monero-Dev channel on freenode and drop that link. Actually, I'll do it for you right now.

[Fragbait]

What actually happened to Monero in the last two or three weeks ? The price fell by more than 20 percent. I do not think anyone expected this.

The rise was exchange hackers converting NEM to Monero and now we are back to levels where we were when they started.

Also probably fear that more exchanges might start banning Monero.

Nice FUD, More???  Please point out just one.

Your trolling Fud will only fool morons, it is obviouse you are looking to get cheap coins.

We are not fooled by your soft troll here, go back to your shitcoin scams.

Just read the article you actually already quoted.

[Hueristic]

What actually happened to Monero in the last two or three weeks ? The price fell by more than 20 percent. I do not think anyone expected this.

The rise was exchange hackers converting NEM to Monero and now we are back to levels where we were when they started.

Also probably fear that more exchanges might start banning Monero.

Nice FUD, More???  Please point out just one.

Your trolling Fud will only fool morons, it is obviouse you are looking to get cheap coins.

We are not fooled by your soft troll here, go back to your shitcoin scams.

Just read the article you actually already quoted.

Funny I was only replying to his reply and hadn't read the quote he was replying to, so I guess some exchange that just the Japanese use has dropped ALL Privacy coins. Thats no surprise as Japan is responding much faster than other countries in recognizing Crypto as a currency and regulating as such.

I wouldn't worry about any regulated exchange dropping monero actually, its funny because binance moved to japan to escape china's heavy hand. That is why they are opening up their own decentralized exchange. Now that will be an interesting place to trade, it should start with alot of volume which is what has hindered most decentralized ones in the past along with depending on shitty tokens to make the swap. I'm not sure if binance will use their BNB token or not but at least that one has a pretty stable price and use case.

So to answer your original question, Maybe but it doesn't matter now. It would have a few years ago but the cat is out of the bag and no amount of regulation is going to stop it.


BTW do you know what this exchange is that they setup? I'd like to try it out.

The hackers set up a site on the darknet for trading virtual currencies and began converting the NEM coins on Feb. 7. Transactions are still being made on the website

And its pretty funny they dropped Dash because it's a privacy coin! LOL

Looks like they are doing this so they can get licensed.

Coincheck’s application to be registered as a cryptocurrency exchange under the revised payment services law has been pending since it was submitted to the Financial Services Agency in September. The screening is taking more time than expected partly because Coincheck handles digital currencies whose owners are anonymous.

[Febo]

https://monerobase.com/wiki/DevMeeting_2018-03-18


To allow some additional time to test all of the new features, the next Monero release has been pushed to ~April 6th: https://github.com/monero-project/monero/pull/3424
Version 0.12 "Lithium Luna"
The release is expected to be tagged and ready for testing this week.
v0.12 "Major" Features
MultiSig
SubAddresses
Default Ring Size increase from 5 to 7
Proof of Work changes to combat ASIC's
Initial hardware wallet support for Ledger
Key reuse mitigations
A Dark theme for the official GUI should be finalized this week.

[Hueristic]

https://monerobase.com/wiki/DevMeeting_2018-03-18


To allow some additional time to test all of the new features, the next Monero release has been pushed to ~April 6th: https://github.com/monero-project/monero/pull/3424
Version 0.12 "Lithium Luna"
The release is expected to be tagged and ready for testing this week.
v0.12 "Major" Features
MultiSig
SubAddresses
Default Ring Size increase from 5 to 7
Proof of Work changes to combat ASIC's
Initial hardware wallet support for Ledger
Key reuse mitigations
A Dark theme for the official GUI should be finalized this week.

Well this isn't going to help price at all.

thanks for the post.

[ol92]

https://monerobase.com/wiki/DevMeeting_2018-03-18


To allow some additional time to test all of the new features, the next Monero release has been pushed to ~April 6th: https://github.com/monero-project/monero/pull/3424
Version 0.12 "Lithium Luna"
The release is expected to be tagged and ready for testing this week.
v0.12 "Major" Features
MultiSig
SubAddresses
Default Ring Size increase from 5 to 7
Proof of Work changes to combat ASIC's
Initial hardware wallet support for Ledger
Key reuse mitigations
A Dark theme for the official GUI should be finalized this week.

Well this isn't going to help price at all.

thanks for the post.

I would say the list of major features is really impressive and should have a more profound impact than the slight delay...

[TheBeardedBaby]

I guess one of the reasons for the price drop you are talking about is because both Bitmain and Baikal announced that Monero ASICs are comming to the market - Bitmain Antminer X3 and Baikal Giant N
Looks like a lot of people are concern about them and this reflects to the current price level of all the Cryptonight coins.

[aerbax]

I guess one of the reasons for the price drop you are talking about is because both Bitmain and Baikal announced that Monero ASICs are comming to the market - Bitmain Antminer X3 and Baikal Giant N
Looks like a lot of people are concern about them and this reflects to the current price level of all the Cryptonight coins.

Right, but prior to them even being announced, they were DoA for Monero.  The Monero Core team had gotten wind of ASIC's being a thing and with the coming upgrade on April 6th, they will be doorstops.

I guess you could use it for Boolberry or Ducknote(or whatever they call it now).

[aerbax]

I normally dont do price analysis- i predict 1750 by AUGUST 2018

It's 165 days(or 23.5 weeks..or 5.5 months) until August 30th.

We're currently at ~$200

There's a $1550 different between those two numbers.

That means that we have to go up
$9.40/day
or
$65/week
or
$281/mo

That's not impossible, but really really improbable.


I have nothing to base this on, but I don't really see Monero going past $1k this year - perhaps a brief spike above $1k - followed by a huge dump. 

I think we can probably push and sustain somewhere near $500 ($480 to $560 sounds about right).  Pumps up to ~$750-800.  Asia might see it higher.

[Hueristic]

I normally dont do price analysis- i predict 1750 by AUGUST 2018

It's 165 days(or 23.5 weeks..or 5.5 months) until August 30th.

We're currently at ~$200

There's a $1550 different between those two numbers.

That means that we have to go up
$9.40/day
or
$65/week
or
$281/mo

That's not impossible, but really really improbable.


I have nothing to base this on, but I don't really see Monero going past $1k this year - perhaps a brief spike above $1k - followed by a huge dump. 

I think we can probably push and sustain somewhere near $500 ($480 to $560 sounds about right).  Pumps up to ~$750-800.  Asia might see it higher.

When the hell have you ever seen this space movie in a linear direction?

[aerbax]

...
When the hell have you ever seen this space movie in a linear direction?

Oh, agreed.. We can certainly jump up $65 in a week.. or $100.. or lose $200 over the course of two weeks.

It's a rollercoaster ride that ...when averaged over time... moves upward.  But I just don't think we're going to see a $1550 improvement in under 6 months.

It's totally possible.. as Bitcoin did it last year.  But Ethereum couldn't.  And I don't think we have the market interest that Ethereum has....yet.

A Coinbase announcement could take us to $600.. and I think the improvements coming in the April release will get us closer to that.  They may want some time to see how our subaddresses and MultiSig works out.  And at their scale, I can't imagine that they wanted to work with Payment ID's.  So our move away from those may also be seen favorably.

[chibimanau]

Monero is a great altcoin. I think the confidentiality protocols will be important in 2018, 2019. Monero is a very popular and developing project for many years.

[jwinterm]

...
When the hell have you ever seen this space movie in a linear direction?

Oh, agreed.. We can certainly jump up $65 in a week.. or $100.. or lose $200 over the course of two weeks.

It's a rollercoaster ride that ...when averaged over time... moves upward.  But I just don't think we're going to see a $1550 improvement in under 6 months.

It's totally possible.. as Bitcoin did it last year.  But Ethereum couldn't.  And I don't think we have the market interest that Ethereum has....yet.

A Coinbase announcement could take us to $600.. and I think the improvements coming in the April release will get us closer to that.  They may want some time to see how our subaddresses and MultiSig works out.  And at their scale, I can't imagine that they wanted to work with Payment ID's.  So our move away from those may also be seen favorably.

From Aug 2017 to late 2017/early 2018 it went from under $50 to nearly $500 briefly. If we settle in around $200 now, then I don't think it's completely crazy to see it go 7-8x and touch $1500. Not saying I think it's likely, but, not out of the question.

[rommelzkie]

I guess one of the reasons for the price drop you are talking about is because both Bitmain and Baikal announced that Monero ASICs are comming to the market - Bitmain Antminer X3 and Baikal Giant N
Looks like a lot of people are concern about them and this reflects to the current price level of all the Cryptonight coins.

Is this true? If its then monero will get pumped hard and fall down like a crashing plane afterwards. Just like what happened to DASH.

can you provide us the link for this monero miners.? I hope monero V fork has a solution for this .

[Anon136]

I guess one of the reasons for the price drop you are talking about is because both Bitmain and Baikal announced that Monero ASICs are comming to the market - Bitmain Antminer X3 and Baikal Giant N
Looks like a lot of people are concern about them and this reflects to the current price level of all the Cryptonight coins.

Is this true? If its then monero will get pumped hard and fall down like a crashing plane afterwards. Just like what happened to DASH.

can you provide us the link for this monero miners.? I hope monero V fork has a solution for this .

I don't think moneroV does. But monero monero does. A slight change is going to be made to the mining algorithm that will render these asics useless for mining monero.

[vit05]

The Monero community was against the possibility of Bitmain dominating and defining the future of the market. This is unbelievable and more people should start supporting the currency. But if that fork will result in a competitor like BCash. With people who constantly spread bad news, lies and act against the currency, it will be a bad thing.