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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3214217 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 2 users deleted.)
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March 19, 2018, 05:15:58 PM
 #37521

Next week the G20 is coming up and they will also talk about crypto. As stated in the public document of the G20(: https://back-g20.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/media/finance_ministerial_highlights.pdf) they understand that crypto has the potential to promote financial inclusion but at the same time they will try to analyse implications to financial stability, tax evasion and financing illegal activities. These statements are nothing new and very similar to what was said previously at the US senate hearings.

Could this have implications on Monero?


The other day I asked about the impact that the G20 might have on Monero and didn't get much attention. I guess that the line of thought is that no one really cares about what the G20 has to say about BTC or XMR since they can't stop us from having and using XMR.

What scared me though is that BTC (XMR followed) went on a run on the news that there won't be any special regulations coming up soon. This is strong evidence that govs and central banks have a very strong impact on crypto and can do whatever they want(weren't BTC and XMR born to be out of this system?). The fact that XMR price is so dependent on regulations is scary and this is a fact shown by the price movements following the news. Having no tight regulations is of course positive but what will happen when a crackdown arrives?. BTC and XMR just showed that they are super dependent on what govs and central banks say.

In the hypothetical scenario of upcoming regulations for privacy coins (bans on exchanges for example) XMR will be strongly affected as shown by positive response to G20 news.

I thought that XMR was way more resilient to regulations. Unfortunately correlation works both ways, up and down

no problem with the last G20 meeting:

https://news.bitcoin.com/g20-watchdog-says-cryptos-not-risk-resists-calls-new-rules/
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March 19, 2018, 05:47:17 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (2)
 #37522

Next week the G20 is coming up and they will also talk about crypto. As stated in the public document of the G20(: https://back-g20.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/media/finance_ministerial_highlights.pdf) they understand that crypto has the potential to promote financial inclusion but at the same time they will try to analyse implications to financial stability, tax evasion and financing illegal activities. These statements are nothing new and very similar to what was said previously at the US senate hearings.

Could this have implications on Monero?


The other day I asked about the impact that the G20 might have on Monero and didn't get much attention. I guess that the line of thought is that no one really cares about what the G20 has to say about BTC or XMR since they can't stop us from having and using XMR.

What scared me though is that BTC (XMR followed) went on a run on the news that there won't be any special regulations coming up soon. This is strong evidence that govs and central banks have a very strong impact on crypto and can do whatever they want(weren't BTC and XMR born to be out of this system?). The fact that XMR price is so dependent on regulations is scary and this is a fact shown by the price movements following the news. Having no tight regulations is of course positive but what will happen when a crackdown arrives?. BTC and XMR just showed that they are super dependent on what govs and central banks say.

In the hypothetical scenario of upcoming regulations for privacy coins (bans on exchanges for example) XMR will be strongly affected as shown by positive response to G20 news.

I thought that XMR was way more resilient to regulations. Unfortunately correlation works both ways, up and down

Monero is flying under the radar, and riding on the goodwill towards bitcoin. The regulators are years behind and don't even understand bitcoin yet. By the time the full impact of bitcoin on the economy is known, regulatory regimes are set up, etc. it will be too late to stop Monero. We'll have decentralized exchanges and atomic swaps.
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March 19, 2018, 05:55:37 PM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #37523

Next week the G20 is coming up and they will also talk about crypto. As stated in the public document of the G20(: https://back-g20.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/media/finance_ministerial_highlights.pdf) they understand that crypto has the potential to promote financial inclusion but at the same time they will try to analyse implications to financial stability, tax evasion and financing illegal activities. These statements are nothing new and very similar to what was said previously at the US senate hearings.

Could this have implications on Monero?


The other day I asked about the impact that the G20 might have on Monero and didn't get much attention. I guess that the line of thought is that no one really cares about what the G20 has to say about BTC or XMR since they can't stop us from having and using XMR.

What scared me though is that BTC (XMR followed) went on a run on the news that there won't be any special regulations coming up soon. This is strong evidence that govs and central banks have a very strong impact on crypto and can do whatever they want(weren't BTC and XMR born to be out of this system?). The fact that XMR price is so dependent on regulations is scary and this is a fact shown by the price movements following the news. Having no tight regulations is of course positive but what will happen when a crackdown arrives?. BTC and XMR just showed that they are super dependent on what govs and central banks say.

In the hypothetical scenario of upcoming regulations for privacy coins (bans on exchanges for example) XMR will be strongly affected as shown by positive response to G20 news.

I thought that XMR was way more resilient to regulations. Unfortunately correlation works both ways, up and down

Monero is flying under the radar, and riding on the goodwill towards bitcoin. The regulators are years behind and don't even understand bitcoin yet. By the time the full impact of bitcoin on the economy is known, regulatory regimes are set up, etc. it will be too late to stop Monero. We'll have decentralized exchanges and atomic swaps.

I imagine you and I are similar cryptosophically.  Bitcoin maximilists at heart who see Monero as either being what bitcoin meant to be or being a perfect compliment blockchain.

I agree with your above analysis.  The question I keep asking is what does Monero's survival look like in the light of a maturing layer 2?  Does it:

-Hold it's niche as a pure 100% privacy blockchain where everything down to the settlement level is obscured and therefore it survives

-Find a way to merge with Bitcoin or in some other way survives?

-Is it made obsolete by functionality that eventually comes to BTC?  And how long 'till this time?
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March 19, 2018, 05:57:43 PM
Merited by explorer (1)
 #37524


Will Bitcoin replace the need for it with layer two?  Maybe.  But not for a while, and it is also possible that Monero becomes Bitcoins privacy layer... I dunno.


Impossible. Fungibility must be on layer one. Chain analysis companies will simply flag everything that touches the privacy layer as tainted. They are already adopting this approach as a chain analysis company admitted in an interview with Bloomberg:

Quote
The techniques are so potent that software that flags coins suspected of being obtained through crime now tags just about anything converted into or out of monero as high risk, according to Pawel Kuskowski, chief executive officer of Coinfirm, which helps exchanges and other companies avoid tainted money. That compares with only about 10 percent of bitcoin, he said.

“What we treat ‘high risk’ is something that’s anonymizing funds,” he said in a phone interview. “How are you going to prove that these funds are not coming from illegal sources?”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/criminal-underworld-is-dropping-bitcoin-for-another-currency
 
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March 19, 2018, 06:24:29 PM
 #37525

Next week the G20 is coming up and they will also talk about crypto. As stated in the public document of the G20(: https://back-g20.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/media/finance_ministerial_highlights.pdf) they understand that crypto has the potential to promote financial inclusion but at the same time they will try to analyse implications to financial stability, tax evasion and financing illegal activities. These statements are nothing new and very similar to what was said previously at the US senate hearings.

Could this have implications on Monero?


The other day I asked about the impact that the G20 might have on Monero and didn't get much attention. I guess that the line of thought is that no one really cares about what the G20 has to say about BTC or XMR since they can't stop us from having and using XMR.

What scared me though is that BTC (XMR followed) went on a run on the news that there won't be any special regulations coming up soon. This is strong evidence that govs and central banks have a very strong impact on crypto and can do whatever they want(weren't BTC and XMR born to be out of this system?). The fact that XMR price is so dependent on regulations is scary and this is a fact shown by the price movements following the news. Having no tight regulations is of course positive but what will happen when a crackdown arrives?. BTC and XMR just showed that they are super dependent on what govs and central banks say.

In the hypothetical scenario of upcoming regulations for privacy coins (bans on exchanges for example) XMR will be strongly affected as shown by positive response to G20 news.

I thought that XMR was way more resilient to regulations. Unfortunately correlation works both ways, up and down

Monero is flying under the radar, and riding on the goodwill towards bitcoin. The regulators are years behind and don't even understand bitcoin yet. By the time the full impact of bitcoin on the economy is known, regulatory regimes are set up, etc. it will be too late to stop Monero. We'll have decentralized exchanges and atomic swaps.

I imagine you and I are similar cryptosophically.  Bitcoin maximilists at heart who see Monero as either being what bitcoin meant to be or being a perfect compliment blockchain.

I agree with your above analysis.  The question I keep asking is what does Monero's survival look like in the light of a maturing layer 2?  Does it:

-Hold it's niche as a pure 100% privacy blockchain where everything down to the settlement level is obscured and therefore it survives

-Find a way to merge with Bitcoin or in some other way survives?

-Is it made obsolete by functionality that eventually comes to BTC?  And how long 'till this time?

Yeah, that sounds about right in terms of my views too.

As far as the future is concerned, I think your first scenario sounds most likely to me. Any bitcoin privacy solutions that come about will most likely either be less private than Monero, or will end up creating tainted bitcoins, and therefore destroying fungibility. I imagine Monero will continue gaining ground in the grey market/black market/tax evasion areas until a bitcoin privacy solution is implemented. Monero's growth may slow down or stall at that point, but I can't see it dying off. Worst case would be Monero shrinks into being a niche for paranoid nerds and old school cypherpunks or something.
What do you think?
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March 19, 2018, 06:48:00 PM
 #37526

~snip~
can you provide us the link for this monero miners.? I hope monero V fork has a solution for this .

I don't think moneroV does. But monero monero does. A slight change is going to be made to the mining algorithm that will render these asics useless for mining monero.

Is this announced somewhere? The HYPE and FUD are really strong forces and big part of the crypto miners are like sheep /no offense/ they have no idea what they are doing, only money matters, so I guess many will be fooled around to buy some expensive ASICs door-stoppers.

See:

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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March 19, 2018, 06:48:29 PM
 #37527

"How individuals can safeguard themselves and the community against a key reusing fork"

https://monero.stackexchange.com/questions/7826/how-can-individuals-safeguard-themselves-and-the-community-against-a-key-reusing/7844#7844

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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March 19, 2018, 09:18:05 PM
 #37528

[Seeks Funding] Funding for Surae at MRL Q2 2018

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/90057/funding-for-surae-at-mrl-q2-2018

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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March 19, 2018, 09:40:36 PM
Merited by Globb0 (2)
 #37529

~snip~
can you provide us the link for this monero miners.? I hope monero V fork has a solution for this .

I don't think moneroV does. But monero monero does. A slight change is going to be made to the mining algorithm that will render these asics useless for mining monero.

Is this announced somewhere? The HYPE and FUD are really strong forces and big part of the crypto miners are like sheep /no offense/ they have no idea what they are doing, only money matters, so I guess many will be fooled around to buy some expensive ASICs door-stoppers.

Sure no problem. A healthy dose of skepticism will go a LONG way towards preserving your wealth in this sector. Here you go. https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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March 20, 2018, 01:45:20 AM
 #37530

When the hell can I get my sweet, sweet MoneroV?
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March 20, 2018, 06:02:23 AM
 #37531

Mastercard: “If governments look to create national digital currency we’d be very happy to look at those in a more favorable way. So long as it’s backed by a regulator, it is not anonymous, it is meeting all the regulatory requirements, I think that would be of greater interest for us to explore.
this means they do not want monero, right?
it seems they want btc, Do these guys even know WHY Bitcoin was created in the first place?
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March 20, 2018, 10:34:58 AM
 #37532

Mastercard: “If governments look to create national digital currency we’d be very happy to look at those in a more favorable way. So long as it’s backed by a regulator, it is not anonymous, it is meeting all the regulatory requirements, I think that would be of greater interest for us to explore.
this means they do not want monero, right?
it seems they want btc, Do these guys even know WHY Bitcoin was created in the first place?

“If governments look to create national digital currency..."


Does that sounds like a Bitcoin to you?  It sounds like a Petro to me. But i highly doubt Mastercard will dare to accept Petro.

At and Mastercard and any company, many so much bother with, will do what gives them most profit.

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March 20, 2018, 11:31:49 AM
Last edit: March 20, 2018, 12:05:34 PM by aminorex
 #37533

Not sure if there are any other cryptonote coins that people will buy asic miners for.

Electroneum. It was paying better than XMR, accounted in spot USD, the last time that I checked.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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March 20, 2018, 11:48:14 AM
 #37534

Not sure if there are any other cryptonote coins that people will buy asic miners for.

Electroneum. It was paying better than XMR, iaccounted in spot USD, the last time that  I checked.
How much you can mine a day with ASIC miner? I hear that Electroneum is mobile based and you can mine it using mobile phones so what is the difficulty and ROI??

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March 20, 2018, 12:05:06 PM
Last edit: March 20, 2018, 03:29:44 PM by aminorex
Merited by bitebits (1)
 #37535

... G20 news.

I thought that XMR was way more resilient to regulations. Unfortunately correlation works both ways, up and down

Short-term correlations do not always correlate with long-term correlations.  Crypto is somewhat like the broad equity or bond market, and all varieties correlate with Bitcoin for many immediate impulses, because so much accounting is done with Bitcoin numeraire, just as alpha-seeking is done with reference to a broad index. Within crypto there are sectors, such as contract- focussed or PoS, or various hash algos, for which both psychological and fundamental factors cause increased correlations in their impulse response to some triggering events. But in the long run, the small but persistent fundamental factors drive dispersion, as each stock (or alt) is driven pseudo-randomly by short-term factors of high correlation, but consistently and monotonically by long-term fundamental factors which differentiate it from it's "peers", and do not correlate.

Monero is unlike its "peers" because it has moneyness in spades. A tighter regulatory regime will cause a price shock, but if your time preference is long-term, it will not matter.  The same contraction which drives the price down short-term will only drive the price up in the long run.  The privacy sector will suffer shocks, but they will only serve to expose the fundamental factors which create demand for privacy, and discriminate Monero as the highest quality private currency (in terms of factors that matter:  liquidity, usability, and antifragility).

Gold is a larger, more integrated part of the economy (compared to crypto), moving on scales of decades and centuries.  How successful were Keynes, Roosevelt, Nixon, and Mao in suppressing the price and/or global trade in gold? How successful was the London gold pool?  In the short-term their actions shocked the market.  In the long run, they are history while gold persists, and inexorably rises in price.  Monero is much, much more like gold (but faster) than are it's "peers", which are more like the North Korean Won, or Theranos shares.

In fact, I contend that the crypto which is amenable to surveillance and central control will lose value in the long run, simply because it is surveilled and controlled - and not to your benefit - while the more decentralized and private crypto will experience consistent, persistent demand which inexorably pushes the price up.  A smack-down punch can take the price arbitrarily low, but the inexorable forces of demand will continue.  In fact, even in the near-term, the smacks just cause corresponding spikes later because they encourage speculators to enter.

Surveillance and centralized control serve the surveillor and controller, but privacy serves the users of the currency, and thus the denominated economy.  Hence the free economy will inexorably grow and produce wealth, while the slave economy founders and creates poverty.  We have seen this repeatedly throughout history.  So vivid is this lesson that Will Durant considers it the first and foremost "lesson of history”: There is and endless cycle in alternating ascendance of the forces of accumulation and centralization, on the one hand, and the forces of distribution and liberty on the other.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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March 20, 2018, 12:40:22 PM
 #37536

Not sure if there are any other cryptonote coins that people will buy asic miners for.

Electroneum. It was paying better than XMR, iaccounted in spot USD, the last time that  I checked.
How much you can mine a day with ASIC miner? I hear that Electroneum is mobile based and you can mine it using mobile phones so what is the difficulty and ROI??
Naaah, the mobile mining is just a simulation. They do reward it with pre-mined Electroneum, but not a lot.
It's more to get new people interested in crypto.

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March 20, 2018, 01:55:36 PM
 #37537

Mastercard: “If governments look to create national digital currency we’d be very happy to look at those in a more favorable way. So long as it’s backed by a regulator, it is not anonymous, it is meeting all the regulatory requirements, I think that would be of greater interest for us to explore.
this means they do not want monero, right?
it seems they want btc, Do these guys even know WHY Bitcoin was created in the first place?

“If governments look to create national digital currency..."


Does that sounds like a Bitcoin to you?  It sounds like a Petro to me. But i highly doubt Mastercard will dare to accept Petro.

At and Mastercard and any company, many so much bother with, will do what gives them most profit.

It all comes down to control, this tech has the capability of completely controlling every purchase you ever made. It's scary when it is centralized, it's bad enough they seize your bank account for arbitrary reasons and funds out of it as well and you have to prove they were wrong and not the other way around. I could not believe companies could seize my money out of my bank and I have to sue them to get it back! This fucking country (USA) is insane!


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March 20, 2018, 03:29:42 PM
Last edit: March 20, 2018, 03:47:10 PM by Febo
 #37538

Not sure if there are any other cryptonote coins that people will buy asic miners for.

Electroneum. It was paying better than XMR, iaccounted in spot USD, the last time that  I checked.
How much you can mine a day with ASIC miner? I hear that Electroneum is mobile based and you can mine it using mobile phones so what is the difficulty and ROI??

That mobile mining is not real mining. I mean is not securing the network is more like an airdrop.  They donate coins.  

As I understand, but I am not a miner, difference between making an asic for Monero and electroneum is that you can be quite sure Monero will be here next year.  Also hashing powers are uncomparable.   Yes of course if you have a CPU or GPU is better now mine Electroneum since ASICs mine Monero.

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March 20, 2018, 04:57:06 PM
 #37539

If you are looking for virtual currencies with high returns, XMR can be a profitable investment option. I believe in the long run it will be worth more than the present, and perhaps this is Monero's main advantage. Its price will increase in late 2018 may be $ 800, to do now you have to wait and hold it.
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March 20, 2018, 10:19:50 PM
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 #37540

I just asked Bitcoin who it's favourite child was... look who it told me:

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