[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Febo]

So...  most of the last version upgrade is terribly positive.  More new and important features.  A more stable and quicker IMHO GUI wallet.  Subadresses, multisig, and so on.

But the big NEWS is the tweak to render current ASICS useless.

And we are seeing the insane drop in hashrate, and crazy rise in mining profitability.  

But here in the SPECULATION thread I do not see much speculation as to what this means price wise for Monero.  I can't really figure it out myself.  So many moving parts...  So far there's been a little drop in price.  I imagine Jihan want's to revenge sell...  and he might have a warchest to do that with, though I doubt he kept more than he sold.  Then there are the forks.  Not a direct relationship, but related at least.

What do you guys think.  Way less hashpower hitting the network, yet so much more decentralized.  Web miners suddenly more profitable.

I think ASIC resistance is a positive thing for the project... but what does this do to the price?

I'd expect the massive dumping already happened (XMR ~ 50% of last month's high)

ASIC resistance is a goal of the project - price I'd expect to be a stable growth now, without meteoric rises hopefully attracting too much speculation.

Massive drop in hash shows that all the jscript miners really haven't deployed any updates. Similar situation appears to be true with botnet miners and ASIC miners, for now.

I think the previous mining is mainly done by the ASIC. There are still about 850MH/s mining the XMO

Mining was mainly done by ASIC because GPUs miners rather chose other coins.   Now they are flocking back to Monero. And hash rate will soon go back to close where it was.  Those 850MH/s will just do what they want to do. They are getting replaced as we speak.

[mambamanagement]

I always thought we see 1,000 this year. at the beginning of the year I thought we could potentially see 5,000. the 5,000 figure now seems too soon. perhaps in 2019. I still believe we see 1,000 this year however.

I think it'd be crazy cool if we got to .05 btc this year.

(I COULD BE WRONG!)

[nazzer]

Mining was mainly done by ASIC because GPUs miners rather chose other coins.   Now they are flocking back to Monero. And hash rate will soon go back to close where it was.  Those 850MH/s will just do what they do what they want. They are getting replaced as we speak.

GPU miners abandoned Cryptonight due to  the massive difficulty spike - initially thought to be botnets, and now we think it's the ASIC'S.

Price of Monero influences miners, higher price, more miners leading to higher difficulty and reducing mining profitability.

Mining hash eventually gets redistributed to balance out profitability amongst all coins.

Once the dust settles from all the forks I expect Monero price should improve - I don't think we'll see 500 though in the short term - hopefully it recovers above 200

[IcoBale01]

We need to wait for the start of the upward trend on all major cryptocurrencies.Look at the daily chart of the main cryptocurrencies. It should show growth at least within a month.
MONERO(XMR)TOTHEMOON2018

[Nathan047]

Well, at this point I'm just waiting for all the fallout to settle. Looks like we are now up to 5 Moneros and counting -
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/monero-just-hard-forked-and-it-resulted-four-new-projects/
I will be watching exchange support for all these coins very closely.

I'll probably just ignore all the new forks, I doubt they will end up as anything big. In fact, I'm pretty sure they'll all end up like Litecoin Cash.

[Hueristic]

But here in the SPECULATION thread I do not see much speculation as to what this means price wise for Monero.  I can't really figure it out myself.  So many moving parts...  So far there's been a little drop in price.  I imagine Jihan want's to revenge sell...  and he might have a warchest to do that with, though I doubt he kept more than he sold.  Then there are the forks.  Not a direct relationship, but related at least.

What do you guys think.  Way less hashpower hitting the network, yet so much more decentralized.  Web miners suddenly more profitable.

I think ASIC resistance is a positive thing for the project... but what does this do to the price?

It is hard to fight the overall negative trend the crypto markets, especially for a coin like XMR which is very much a true crypto currency, and not some ICO project that is claiming to revolutionize online dating/storage/dentists/etc. For XMR, if money is flowing out of crypto we're probably losing value. Perhaps we decline less.

I would like to know what your thoughts on the git question you had posed now that we see the hash results? Are you happy with the result or would you still make an argument for ASICs in the future? I'm looking forward to a analysis of the hashrate as it progresses and a comprehensive aggregate of the probabilities of which percentage was indeed botnets as I expect they should be continuing to migrate back to the dominate chain (By which I mean the DEV supported chain).

I'd also like to congratulate you and all the Devs on a job well done.


@Price Speculations:

AFA price well thats just a can of worms that only the whales, of which there are far less crypto kings now and far more futures traders and hedgefunds, really know which way they will push this largely still unregulated market of which Monero is still just a small segment of. Monero's price seems to be pegged closer to BTC than it was before the wallstreeters jumped onboard and that has to be taken into account. We were seeing a nice split from BTC where as now it seems they are linked far more tightly and I would take a wild stab at that being the case because many people have portfolios that are carying may coins and not changing those percentages at all.

As usual these are all just complete speculations on my part and I use a crystal ball that is my brain and will not bother to aggregate any type of data to back these statements up so take them for what you paid for them.

Well, at this point I'm just waiting for all the fallout to settle. Looks like we are now up to 5 Moneros and counting -
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/monero-just-hard-forked-and-it-resulted-four-new-projects/
I will be watching exchange support for all these coins very closely.

I'll probably just ignore all the new forks, I doubt they will end up as anything big. In fact, I'm pretty sure they'll all end up like Litecoin Cash.

Hey, I still have some LitecoinX on polo from 2014 or 15 I think, it's actually pretty funny seeing old greyed out delisted shit coins. It reminds me of Craptsy, coinmarket.io, CoinEX and the slew of others that went to the wayside mostly with alot of idiots funds.

BTW, I lost my phrase for NOXT so those are lost in time as well, too bad I originally had high hopes for that one. It really sucks that Rofo got screwed on Noble to the botnet scumbags, thats one reason I'd rather see them mining Monero instead of attacking weak chains of promising projects.

[NASer122]

Past and history can be as a reference, but please don't take on September 4, 2017 points, every time is not the same, otherwise the market has been playing the longer earn more, but that is not the case.

[Hueristic]

Past and history can be as a reference, but please don't take on September 4, 2017 points, every time is not the same, otherwise the market has been playing the longer earn more, but that is not the case.

I'm sorry you are going to have to explain this in clear English for me to understand what you mean. This reads like gibberish to me.

[aminorex]

I'm shocked by the current price.

Not sure what to think.

Anyway fuck selling, just going to hold to zero.

The worse you feel, the more you buy.  The happier you feel, the more you sell.  It is one of the simplest forms of contrarianism, and one that works well in high volatility instruments with a persistent long-term uptrend.  It is also one of the psychologically most difficult rules to follow. It also requires cash in hand, or cash flows, during lows.

I generally expect BTC supply to diminish after April 15, and again Oct 15:  Big gains in 2017 mean big tax bills.  Summer may pop, but if not, then the holidays should pop even more.  It is starting to become a predictable cycle, so there will be a lot of effort sunk into front-running the cycle (whether real or imagined), so July or August seems like a good time to buy.

[johnalan]

I'm shocked by the current price.

Not sure what to think.

Anyway fuck selling, just going to hold to zero.

The worse you feel, the more you buy.  The happier you feel, the more you sell.  It is one of the simplest forms of contrarianism, and one that works well in high volatility instruments with a persistent long-term uptrend.  It is also one of the psychologically most difficult rules to follow. It also requires cash in hand, or cash flows, during lows.

I generally expect BTC supply to diminish after April 15, and again Oct 15:  Big gains in 2017 mean big tax bills.  Summer may pop, but if not, then the holidays should pop even more.  It is starting to become a predictable cycle, so there will be a lot of effort sunk into front-running the cycle (whether real or imagined), so July or August seems like a good time to buy.

Yeah I've been DCA'ing all the way down, just about out of cash. About to go long again at 140 (if we reach it).

After that I'm fully invested.

I was sure we would see 800-1KUSd ~0.05 this year, seems unlikely now...

[smooth]

So...  most of the last version upgrade is terribly positive.  More new and important features.  A more stable and quicker IMHO GUI wallet.  Subadresses, multisig, and so on.

But the big NEWS is the tweak to render current ASICS useless.

And we are seeing the insane drop in hashrate, and crazy rise in mining profitability.   

But here in the SPECULATION thread I do not see much speculation as to what this means price wise for Monero.  I can't really figure it out myself.  So many moving parts...  So far there's been a little drop in price.  I imagine Jihan want's to revenge sell...  and he might have a warchest to do that with, though I doubt he kept more than he sold.  Then there are the forks.  Not a direct relationship, but related at least.

What do you guys think.  Way less hashpower hitting the network, yet so much more decentralized.  Web miners suddenly more profitable.

I think ASIC resistance is a positive thing for the project... but what does this do to the price?

I'd expect the massive dumping already happened (XMR ~ 50% of last month's high)

ASIC resistance is a goal of the project - price I'd expect to be a stable growth now, without meteoric rises hopefully attracting too much speculation.

Massive drop in hash shows that all the jscript miners really haven't deployed any updates. Similar situation appears to be true with botnet miners and ASIC miners, for now.

I think the previous mining is mainly done by the ASIC. There are still about 850MH/s mining the XMO

Mining was mainly done by ASIC because GPUs miners rather chose other coins.   Now they are flocking back to Monero. And hash rate will soon go back to close where it was.  Those 850MH/s will just do what they want to do. They are getting replaced as we speak.

It is a combination of both. The profitability had gone well below the historic range which means given current prices CPUs and GPUs would likely never push up the hash rate that high (ignoring slow Moore's Law-type improvements), only ASICs.

I would like to know what your thoughts on the git question you had posed now that we see the hash results? Are you happy with the result or would you still make an argument for ASICs in the future? I'm looking forward to a analysis of the hashrate as it progresses and a comprehensive aggregate of the probabilities of which percentage was indeed botnets as I expect they should be continuing to migrate back to the dominate chain (By which I mean the DEV supported chain).

ArticMine's analysis is pretty convincing that it was mostly ASICs. Botnets have been around forever and have never pushed profitability that low. Probably because they are constrained by available zombie machines (there are not tens of millions readily available for mining). It also doesn't make a whole lot of sense for botnets to end up quickly on the ASIC-friendly fork. They would have to be running their own pool/node, and not update it despite losing money, and most botnets we've seen have just used public pools (in which case they would stop mining altogether if not updated, not switch to the the ASIC-friendly fork).

As far as the GitHub ASIC-friendly question, it is still very much a hypothetical whether an ASIC-friendly approach could work and result in a competitive ASIC market, regardless of the algorithm. I'm personally somewhat doubtful on it, given the current realities of how chips are designed and manufactured. Perhaps there is a possibility of some sort of open source ASIC, but I don't know enough about the fabrication process to have an opinion on it.


@explorer, thanks for the heads up about the non-removed post. Not sure what happened, I did click delete on it.

[estenity]

secret ASICS everywhere ?

https://twitter.com/derek_hsue/status/983388352849371137?s=21

[smooth]

secret ASICS everywhere ?

https://twitter.com/derek_hsue/status/983388352849371137?s=21

Very likely considering that there are Ethereum ASICs announced and being sold to customers (but not shipped). It is very much the same situation.

[denetci]

On Linux, the daemon is up, running, and synced, but the GUI says it is disconnected, and doesn't show a stairs update (green progress bar). It shows disconnected instead. When I click status in the GUI, it shows it as running at 100%, ie at current chain height. Terminal also shows it running.

Any ideas?

[bitebits]

On Linux, the daemon is up, running, and synced, but the GUI says it is disconnected, and doesn't show a stairs update (green progress bar). It shows disconnected instead. When I click status in the GUI, it shows it as running at 100%, ie at current chain height. Terminal also shows it running.

Any ideas?

I actually have the exact same issue (64-bit), maybe repost in the Monero Support topic.

[dEBRUYNE]

On Linux, the daemon is up, running, and synced, but the GUI says it is disconnected, and doesn't show a stairs update (green progress bar). It shows disconnected instead. When I click status in the GUI, it shows it as running at 100%, ie at current chain height. Terminal also shows it running.

Any ideas?

I actually have the exact same issue (64-bit), maybe repost in the Monero Support topic.

Please see:

https://monero.stackexchange.com/questions/7999/linux-gui-v0-12-does-not-connect-to-local-or-remote-node-stdbad-cast-error

[Nathan047]

secret ASICS everywhere ?
https://twitter.com/derek_hsue/status/983388352849371137?s=21

Very likely considering that there are Ethereum ASICs announced and being sold to customers (but not shipped). It is very much the same situation.

So, there's a chance that they are being produced and secretly sold to a small selection of buyers? Sounds to me like this is bordering conspiracy theory territory, but then again weirder things have happened.

[sujaramu]

it is not immediately obvious when the adoption overtakes emission. My calculation is that XMR is not loved by speculators currently, and even many who like the coin are temporarily out, waiting for the price to come down. This would mean rocket fuel at the point when it is clear to everybody that the 250-450 trading range is permanently behind us.

[iram1011]

I have been analyzing the Monero chart and according to analysis, XMR has remained at $163 for the last hour, the triangular support line. The current price is above the support line and can rise to the $ 175 resistance line. Also, since the 100 SMA trend is lower than the 200 SMA trend, the support line is likely to collapse and the price is likely to be between $ 163 and $ 200. I expect a breakout from here.

[Hueristic]

https://qz.com/1247385/five-ways-to-reduce-your-cryptocurrency-taxes/

1: Be a long-term investor. Taxes are much lower if you own cryptocurrencies for more than one year; the IRS rewards patience. Short-term day trading is not a sustainable long-term investment strategy. Warren Buffett famously said, “The longer the view, the wiser the intention.” When Warren Buffett invests in a company, he assumes that the market will be closed for 10 years. Thinking long-term when investors do their due diligence on cryptocurrencies is a prudent strategy in most situations, as capital-gains taxes on investments held for more than one year are much lower than capital-gains taxes on investments held for less than one year.

The worst thing a cryptocurrency investor could do is to convert from one cryptocurrency to another if the investor has made a huge profit on the initial cryptocurrency. For example, if an investor bought $1 worth of Cryptocurrency A on Jan. 1 and then converted it into Cryptocurrency B once it reached a value of $101, then the investor would be taxed on the $100 gain, as the IRS views the conversion from one cryptocurrency to another as a sale and a purchase.
Then, if we assume that the same investor’s investment in Cryptocurrency B went from a value of $101 when Cryptocurrency B was purchased in year one to a value of $1 when they sold Cryptocurrency B in year two, then the tax implications are horrific. In this example, the investor would have to pay taxes on the $100 in realized profits in year one, even though the investor lost $100 on Cryptocurrency B in year two.

5: You can gift or donate your cryptocurrency and not pay taxes, if you have not sold the cryptocurrency. The process is similar to how the gifting of stocks process works. According to Schwab, when you gift a stock, the value of the gift is the fair market value when the stock has been gifted and, according to IRS guidelines, the maximum gift size for 2017 tax purposes is $14,000 per gift.