[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Febo]

approaching 4 days above 0.008, getting stronger...

6 days now. This post will probably spook the price, but we are getting close to 11 days what was best of this year.

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[Johnny Mnemonic]

I was among the folks who was disappointed that we chose to add the tail emission.  In fact I was FIRMLY against it.  And still recognize it came at a cost.  The biggest of which was the change to the social contract, and putting Monero among the cryptocurrencies that have shown that unlike Bitcoin, the more centralized leadership can change the financial contract thereby putting a dent in the store of value property of Monero.

I'm not aware of the tail emission changing the social contract, as it was discussed before even bitMonero was released, and even though it wasn't implemented right away, a ~1% inflation was listed on Monero's announcement thread from day 1. Further, even though we may not have realized it at the time, the tail emission wasn't really optional, as the dynamic block size cannot function without it. Could you imagine if we decided against the tail emission and then years later realized we needed to hard fork it in? That would have been a complete disaster.

[kurious]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

[explorer]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

[slaman29]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-irs-offers-a-625-000-bounty-to-anyone-who-can-break-monero-and-lightning

It's great to hear that the IRS need to offer a bounty to try to break monero. Confirms they can't do it  
May have something to do with the little rally we're seeing today too?

Those are just free audits of Monero code. It is only fair that taxes are sometimes well spent. We are still waiting for Monero to go over 0.01. It is taking unusually long.

Best definition I've heard of in a long, long time. Every time I hear about people trying to crack this Bitcoin wallet or analyze that Monero transaction, I just keep thinking. Yes, go on and prove their worth, help people see how they have fit exactly what they were supposed to do in terms of security. Good for us.

[cAPSLOCK]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

It's still kind of subtle, but the price action on gently rising volume is encouraging me.  And I do feel like XMR is looking a little more healthy than all of the yoyo shitcoins.

[elrippos friend]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

It's still kind of subtle, but the price action on gently rising volume is encouraging me.  And I do feel like XMR is looking a little more healthy than all of the yoyo shitcoins.

Prediction for this year?

[cAPSLOCK]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

It's still kind of subtle, but the price action on gently rising volume is encouraging me.  And I do feel like XMR is looking a little more healthy than all of the yoyo shitcoins.

Prediction for this year?

Oh I am very bad at that sort of thing, but I will give a probable range for fun.

I would say Santa will likely bring us something between .009 and .013.

This is my conservative estimate, and I sort of hope it's right because:

If we are back down near -008 we are rangebound and if we are over .015 we are possibly going parabolic, and early IMHO.

That said, I base this off the idea that XMR is a proven old school alt that is therefor less likely to have a massive move up, but I also could see XMR decoupling from the momentum BTC has by either:

- being part of a quality alt "altseason"
- being recognized specifically as the state of the art privacy coin (finally)

In those cases we could see BTC prices that try to revisit the .03x mark.  But I see this as a remote chance by the end of the year.

[elrippos friend]

My mystical chart has BTC breaking upward mid September.  XMR seems as always to be a wild card, but its due to take a bigger chunk out of BTC.  Overdue, methinks.

Good call, explorer, better than mine. I expected a positive move, too - but I was over-optimistic about the Bitcoin price bouncing back and Monero riding that well.  Your 'mid September' prediction has aged rather well.

Well,  it did break upward,  however BTC still down $1000 from when I posted that    Still time though.  I will allow the rest of the week to be 'mid September'.   XMR about level in USD, but looking good with a strong run above 0.008 BTC.

It's still kind of subtle, but the price action on gently rising volume is encouraging me.  And I do feel like XMR is looking a little more healthy than all of the yoyo shitcoins.

Prediction for this year?

Oh I am very bad at that sort of thing, but I will give a probable range for fun.

I would say Santa will likely bring us something between .009 and .013.

This is my conservative estimate, and I sort of hope it's right because:

If we are back down near -008 we are rangebound and if we are over .015 we are possibly going parabolic, and early IMHO.

That said, I base this off the idea that XMR is a proven old school alt that is therefor less likely to have a massive move up, but I also could see XMR decoupling from the momentum BTC has by either:

- being part of a quality alt "altseason"
- being recognized specifically as the state of the art privacy coin (finally)

In those cases we could see BTC prices that try to revisit the .03x mark.  But I see this as a remote chance by the end of the year.

I am also quite bad at this, but my estimation is more or less the same than yours, maybe a bit more positve to have the upswing for 0,009x by the end of September with a spike to 0,036 in July 2021  

[Febo]

Finally! This should definitely make things started.

https://www.perkinscoie.com/images/content/2/3/v3/237411/Perkins-Coie-LLP-White-Paper-AML-Regulation-of-Privacy-enablin.pdf

[Hueristic]

Finally! This should definitely make things started.

https://www.perkinscoie.com/images/content/2/3/v3/237411/Perkins-Coie-LLP-White-Paper-AML-Regulation-of-Privacy-enablin.pdf

Privacy-enabling cryptocurrencies, commonly known as privacy coins, are enhanced versions of early cryptocurrencies
that were developed to protect the financial privacy of individuals and businesses alike. Each privacy coin leverages
innovative mechanisms that provide privacy, encryption, and security to its users. Alongside their positive effects,
however, these mechanisms have raised an important compliance question:
Is it possible for regulated entities to comply with anti-money laundering (“AML”) obligations when supporting
privacy coins?
The answer, in our view, is yes.
Not only do privacy coins provide public benefits that substantially outweigh their risks, existing AML
regulations properly and sufficiently cover those risks, providing a proven framework for combatting money
laundering and related crimes.
In reaching that conclusion, we profile several privacy coins, detail key AML regulations and intergovernmental
recommendations affecting privacy coins, and explain the measures that have allowed financial institutions,
intermediaries, and virtual asset service providers (collectively, “VASPs”) to comply with AML obligations
when facilitating privacy coin transactions. We also dispel the misconception that privacy coins are
fundamentally incompatible with AML compliance, focusing on measures that have allowed VASPs to comply
with AML obligations when conducting or facilitating privacy coin transactions.

[Febo]

Quote from the paper

Conclusion
Privacy coins reflect a nascent, but important, effort to safeguard our fundamental interest in personal and commercial
financial privacy. The AML risks of privacy coins, while real, do not require specific, tailored regulations that may pose
an unnecessary risk of stifling privacy coins’ growth. Rather, VASPs can adequately address those AML risks by
maintaining an effective, risk-based program. Allowing VASPs to support privacy tokens under current, tested AML
regulations strikes the appropriate policy balance between preventing money laundering and allowing beneficial,
privacy-preserving technology to develop

[Hueristic]

Looks like big dump but low volume, they keep trying to pull these tactics.


#ShakenTheTrees

[Millionero]

Finally! This should definitely make things started.

https://www.perkinscoie.com/images/content/2/3/v3/237411/Perkins-Coie-LLP-White-Paper-AML-Regulation-of-Privacy-enablin.pdf

This is pretty significant:
Notably, the Funds Travel Rule and similar “tracking”-
oriented obligations, which were initially implemented for compliance of non-cryptocurrency services, do not mandate
that this tracking and sharing of required transaction information occur via blockchain analysis and surveillance.

And
Like FinCEN with the AML Program, the NYDFS
outlines certain requirements on the rigorousness of these programs, but it similarly does not require the use of onchain surveillance tools.

[Febo]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/xmr-workgroup-says-irs-should-study-monero-not-try-to-break-it

One of rare Cointelegraph articles mention Monero so far that I liked.

XMR workgroup says IRS should study Monero — not try to break it

Trying to break it simply tells us they dont understand it yet. $625,000  would be very well spend founds for them to do understand Monero. And see how valuable it is.


Also, right now there is so much news of Monero in media, so I am surprised there was no price action because of that.  At least some failed pump as it happened on 21th August.

[elrippos friend]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/xmr-workgroup-says-irs-should-study-monero-not-try-to-break-it

One of rare Cointelegraph articles mention Monero so far that I liked.

XMR workgroup says IRS should study Monero — not try to break it

Trying to break it simply tells us they dont understand it yet. $625,000  would be very well spend founds for them to do understand Monero. And see how valuable it is.


Also, right now there is so much news of Monero in media, so I am surprised there was no price action because of that.  At least some failed pump as it happened on 21th August.

Wait for October 

[cAPSLOCK]

Little Monero bucking a pretty strong trend.

I gotta say it has been acting fairly lit up recently.

[rinus]

Looks like this is a general market drop : stocks, crypto, silver...
This is due to the elections?

[cAPSLOCK]

Looks like this is a general market drop : stocks, crypto, silver...
This is due to the elections?

USD is rallying.

The election is a known risk.  What is likely contributing to this is continued speculation around covid, and the more immediate political risk threat posed by the Justice Ginsburg situation that happened over the weekend.

That's the only sense I can make of it at least, lol.

I actually think Bitcoin (and by extension, Monjango) are at less risk, than Gold currently.  I would be a little worried about Gold as it is testing it's 50MA.  But whether that means a bear move, or a great dip to buy?  I am as clueless as ever.

(eidt - oh and I am fairly certain the markets heard me bragging on XMR holding up during all this tanking... I had barely hit post when it fell alongside it's peers... *sigh* my bad...)

[rinus]

Looks like this is a general market drop : stocks, crypto, silver...
This is due to the elections?

USD is rallying.

The election is a known risk.  What is likely contributing to this is continued speculation around covid, and the more immediate political risk threat posed by the Justice Ginsburg situation that happened over the weekend.

That's the only sense I can make of it at least, lol.

I actually think Bitcoin (and by extension, Monjango) are at less risk, than Gold currently.  I would be a little worried about Gold as it is testing it's 50MA.  But whether that means a bear move, or a great dip to buy?  I am as clueless as ever.

(eidt - oh and I am fairly certain the markets heard me bragging on XMR holding up during all this tanking... I had barely hit post when it fell alongside it's peers... *sigh* my bad...)

U think this dip will last long?