[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

9K !!!!!




Sorry, couldn't help myself

[Febo]

I remember one resistance/support was around 0.0115 and other around 0.017. I clearly remember saying that any Monero below 0.017 btc is a undervalued Monero    Anyway around 0.0115 will be our next target. If somehow, with BitMex drama, breaks it we will go fast to not super cheap Monero range anymore.

[cAPSLOCK]

I remember one resistance/support was around 0.0115 and other around 0.017. I clearly remember saying that any Monero below 0.017 btc is a undervalued Monero    Anyway around 0.0115 will be our next target. If somehow, with BitMex drama, breaks it we will go fast to not super cheap Monero range anymore.

I think there are some scenarios in which the BitMex thing is good fr Monero...

[explorer]

I remember one resistance/support was around 0.0115 and other around 0.017. I clearly remember saying that any Monero below 0.017 btc is a undervalued Monero    Anyway around 0.0115 will be our next target. If somehow, with BitMex drama, breaks it we will go fast to not super cheap Monero range anymore.

I think there are some scenarios in which the BitMex thing is good fr Monero...

The suspense is killing...  Were you planning to expand on that, or just drop it like Elwar? 

[elrippos friend]

My prediction was 0,009'ish by the end of september, October starts even better  

You are very often correct.  Keep us updated  

Thank's for the laurels, merits to you 
I will do so, set back is comming  

[cAPSLOCK]

In USD the next trading ranges are:

Between 95-115
Between 115-140
Open skies!

The timeframe is the harder question, and I think depends on the broader crypto markets.

I expect those two areas to put up fights.

The reason I am talking USD is because I think a lot of the new money coming in will be thinking in USD, and bitcoin's rise also brings us into those areas.

Looking at it in the more important XMR/BTC shows a similar potential progression, though.

I think we spend some time in that first trading range for now.  Weaker Bitcoin means somewhat stronger XMR and vice versa.

[Hueristic]

Shit, I was just joking!

Vegeta curse?

[Globb0]

Little pullback/healthy retrace


what do you think?

[Febo]

I think we were thinking to much in the future. We might stay a bit more in 0.009-0.0105 range. Maybe a day more maybe a week more. Maybe even a month, but that seems hard.

Transactions went like this.  September still had not reach May. But had only 30 days, so one less. May was really special. I still dont understand why. Overall trend is up. Last week was also because price swings best transactions wise.

Sep 2020   396,854   
Aug 2020   381,555   
Jul   2020   331,181   
Jun  2020   340,895   
May 2020   400,871   
Apr  2020   365,875   
Mar  2020   303,291   
Feb  2020   231,953   
Jan  2020   257,942   
Dec 2019   216,720   
Nov 2019   212,716   

[cAPSLOCK]

Little pullback/healthy retrace


what do you think?

I think Bitcoin is acting like China banned it and it's 2016, and will soon realize that the Bitmex thing is totally different and net good for the Bitcoin economy.  And I think XMR is going to hang out in this trading range for a while.

[explorer]

   SUP?  Steady Upward Pressure?

[cAPSLOCK]

So... I think it's pretty good news that we most likely have pretty good technical support above 9 even in the worst cases (that are not that support breaking):



I cannot draw an exponential curve for this... but I also think we have pretty good support ~ 0.0094-0.0095.  This kooky nest of straight lines will have to stand in for the curve...

[tokeweed]

Little pullback/healthy retrace


what do you think?

Looks ok imo.  It's prolly just some traders taking advantage of a move and are taking profit.  I think it should be alright...  And some of these traders do buy back at the bottom.  

[Febo]

Got to 0.0103 today then back to 0.01 and now is was going up again. Would be nice to see 0.0105. Could rally out of it or just make new higher top and try again tomorrow or latter. There is still plenty of time today for all options.

[kurious]

https://twitter.com/cryptomorpheus_/status/1310055586915115008

Props to you and Febo for prompting me to look at this.  I keep coming back to it and thinking about it.

Morpheus' tweets in the above link really makes me smile:

One quote:

'It is as if @monero was to some extent BTC itself, and you wont find other coins that has this same pattern. The market evaluated both as THE SAME. This is HUGE because as you guys can see, Monero's transactions just keep increasing parabolically while Bitcoin's TX aren't.'

I hope this analysis proves to be valid and stays on track (and that transactions do keep growing) because it means the price now could perhaps be a couple of orders of magnitude short of where it's ultimately headed.

And that would be rather sweet.  Am now taking out some of the sells I have left on exchange from a couple of years back.  I used to think it was a good thing to provide liquidity in the market, but I am suddenly starting to feel less inclined to.

[Hueristic]

After about ten refreshes I finally was able to see that tweet.

Twitter has been really weird lately, I think they are trying to force signups.

[FinneysTrueVision]

The recent price surge looks more like market manipulation to me rather than it being due to recent news about the IRS and BitMEX. There is very little trading volume on the big exchanges so it is much easier to pump the price on a dodgy exchange like CITEX, which is where most of the volume is coming from.

[Febo]

The recent price surge looks more like market manipulation to me rather than it being due to recent news about the IRS and BitMEX. There is very little trading volume on the big exchanges so it is much easier to pump the price on a dodgy exchange like CITEX, which is where most of the volume is coming from.

Monero tradings was always low compared to other coins. Reason is that Monero is listed on less exchanges and on less exchanges with fake volume. CITEX? really. You can cut out volume there totally. Every single day.
What is happening to Monero have nothing to do with BitMex. BitMex of course could shocks whole crypto and with that also Monero. I dont monitor it that closely, so I dont really know how much more chances for shock there are now.
For the IRS free advertisement. Such events raise interest about Monero to people that never heard about it before. And is not just that. There was many more news. Like 40 companies enrolled on that IRS call. They choose only two. One of those 40 companies was also CypherTrace that made additional advertisement of Monero only few weeks before. Then there was also Perkinscoie legal opinion of how Monero transactions are totally compatible with KYC rules in USA and wider, that did not got that much recognition in media as it should. Combining all this with growth of transactions. Most if not all of this are totally free advertisement of Monero. Other coins are paying huge amounts of money for such advertisements.

Advertisement never instantly reflects on price. It reflects after some time. Here is me talking about it two weeks ago:

Also, right now there is so much news of Monero in media, so I am surprised there was no price action because of that.  At least some failed pump as it happened on 21th August.

Another thing I noticed lately is how more accurate are articles in cointelegraph and in other news, as they were in last 6 years. If there were any articles at all. There are different writers or they started looking much more deeply in Monero when writing an article.

[joroz]

Another thing I noticed lately is how more accurate are articles in cointelegraph and in other news, as they were in last 6 years. If there were any articles at all. There are different writers or they started looking much more deeply in Monero when writing an article.

You can thank Monero Outreach for this. They’ve been working closely with journalists who publish stories about Monero and correcting them when they get it wrong.  Especially CoinTelegraph.

[Febo]

Morpheus' tweets in the above link really makes me smile:
One quote:
'It is as if @monero was to some extent BTC itself, and you wont find other coins that has this same pattern. The market evaluated both as THE SAME. This is HUGE because as you guys can see, Monero's transactions just keep increasing parabolically while Bitcoin's TX aren't.'

I hope this analysis proves to be valid and stays on track (and that transactions do keep growing) because it means the price now could perhaps be a couple of orders of magnitude short of where it's ultimately headed.

It is more then obvious that at least some people are trying to buy. But they cant without moving market to much. 

Considering stock to flow. I just noticed today that daily emission went under 1000 XMR a day what is 1.62% yearly. So very close to Golds yearly mining emission.