[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

You can pry my Romeros out of my cold dead hands.

[explorer]

Interesting landmark.  I don't expect it to hold, but then again this is really deflating on low volume...

   Either I am a genius, or it is too pat.  Every single pause and turning point has hit the lines on my chart these last few months.  I haven't changed anything, and I never used to be quite genius level, so I'm guessing its even more orchestrated than usual.  The low volume is a factor that makes it easier, I suppose.  If there was more generic activity it would be harder to dictate the action.  Whatever, I just keep sailing the seas... 

[cAPSLOCK]

So often the damn contrarian.

[explorer]

So often the damn contrarian.

Shakin' the tree.

[cAPSLOCK]

You know what I have been pinging around in my noggin, though it's baseless and does not really make sense.

Why did XMR prophesy bitcoin's breakout. I mean it could be a coincidence.  Probably is really...  But I am just trying to think... why could it be, and why now.

I mean even in a more general sense... why did XMR have such a nice parabolic run.

Hmm.

 

[kurious]

You know what I have been pinging around in my noggin, though it's baseless and does not really make sense.

Why did XMR prophesy bitcoin's breakout. I mean it could be a coincidence.  Probably is really...  But I am just trying to think... why could it be, and why now.

I mean even in a more general sense... why did XMR have such a nice parabolic run.

Hmm.

 

I used to say 'honeypony don't give a fuck' but in all honesty Monero has a sort of history of blowing up at an opportune time.

It did have some seasonal bursts or ebbs and flows for a while, but from mid-2016 it really ripped up - at one point it had clocked up an annual growth of 2,600%.

It reached its peak in dollar terms IIRC after Bitcoin had peaked, in spring 2018.

So it pre-dated Bitcoin's massive run then... and it does look like a similar pattern now.  We have no idea if it would have done it in 2013, as it didn't exist back then, but the last big run was huge and looking at its aftermath up to now, I have been wondering too.

Looking at the 2018 decline, post the 2016/2017 explosion, it just looks like a huge curved bowl, or perhaps (dare I say) a cup.  It is obvious Monero has been on the rise, but possibly this is just a continuation of the cup shape and we are - so far- only in the early stages of completion.

Hopium, or plausible?  It's early to say, but the signs as you point out are there.

There is no four-yearly halving in Monero's code, but it may just be it does react to Bitcoin's cycle in a rather wonderful way.  Gaining against Bitcoin when Bitcoin is gaining against fiat is a seriously wonderful thing.

It can be argued that Monero looks like it wants to do it again - and (again) wants to get started early...

They say history doesn't repeat itself, but....

[elrippos friend]

You know what I have been pinging around in my noggin, though it's baseless and does not really make sense.

Why did XMR prophesy bitcoin's breakout. I mean it could be a coincidence.  Probably is really...  But I am just trying to think... why could it be, and why now.

I mean even in a more general sense... why did XMR have such a nice parabolic run.

Hmm.

 

I used to say 'honeypony don't give a fuck' but in all honesty Monero has a sort of history of blowing up at an opportune time.

It did have some seasonal bursts or ebbs and flows for a while, but from mid-2016 it really ripped up - at one point it had clocked up an annual growth of 2,600%.

It reached its peak in dollar terms IIRC after Bitcoin had peaked, in spring 2018.

So it pre-dated Bitcoin's massive run then... and it does look like a similar pattern now.  We have no idea if it would have done it in 2013, as it didn't exist back then, but the last big run was huge and looking at its aftermath up to now, I have been wondering too.

Looking at the 2018 decline, post the 2016/2017 explosion, it just looks like a huge curved bowl, or perhaps (dare I say) a cup.  It is obvious Monero has been on the rise, but possibly this is just a continuation of the cup shape and we are - so far- only in the early stages of completion.

Hopium, or plausible?  It's early to say, but the signs as you point out are there.

There is no four-yearly halving in Monero's code, but it may just be it does react to Bitcoin's cycle in a rather wonderful way.  Gaining against Bitcoin when Bitcoin is gaining against fiat is a seriously wonderful thing.

It can be argued that Monero looks like it wants to do it again - and (again) wants to get started early...

They say history doesn't repeat itself, but....

History repeats itself, predicitions are based on emphirical history and Monero will allign to that 

[cAPSLOCK]

That's right Monero!  Don't let all that attention your big brother is getting slow you down too much!



@kurious I was thinking last week that XMR could be setting up for an EPIC cup and handle...  -EDIT- in fact if it hangs out around 10 for a while which seems very possible cosidering everything it's gonna draw a pretty nice one.  We should be on the lookout to the push back up to 11.  That would be the cue!

[Febo]

Both Monero and Bitcoin are destined to go up this and most likely whole next year. Swings down as Monero had last two days will for sure happen but general trend will be up. I dont see any other way. Number of transactions will be by far highest in October, no matter the protocol upgrade bad two days. Emission inflation is at 1.58%. That is just like Gold. Everything under $200 for all year high does not sound nice.   

[johnalan]

Both Monero and Bitcoin are destined to go up this and most likely whole next year. Swings down as Monero had last two days will for sure happen but general trend will be up. I dont see any other way. Number of transactions will be by far highest in October, no matter the protocol upgrade bad two days. Emission inflation is at 1.58%. That is just like Gold. Everything under $200 for all year high does not sound nice.    

I agree, though I think there are too many weak hands to ever see Monero > 1KUSD.

Though I think we will probably see XMR/BTC at 0.008 with BTC at 50K some day, so say 400usd for XMR.

FWIW I've held from 7usd to 480usd and back.

[phishead]

Both Monero and Bitcoin are destined to go up this and most likely whole next year. Swings down as Monero had last two days will for sure happen but general trend will be up. I dont see any other way. Number of transactions will be by far highest in October, no matter the protocol upgrade bad two days. Emission inflation is at 1.58%. That is just like Gold. Everything under $200 for all year high does not sound nice.    

I agree, though I think there are too many weak hands to ever see Monero > 1KUSD.

Though I think we will probably see XMR/BTC at 0.008 with BTC at 50K some day, so say 400usd for XMR.

FWIW I've held from 7usd to 480usd and back.

Emission is already below Bitcoin’s and the deficit is only going to increase over the short term. With atomic swaps coming soon^tm and a steep learning curve for properly using coinjoin, I think you may be underestimating the demand for a truly private/fungible currency. Especially whales who have been forced to keep funds frozen in their wallet to avoid detection.

[LennyCarl]

Especially whales who have been forced to keep funds frozen in their wallet to avoid detection.
[/quote]

That's funny and true. I know a guy who apparently has hundreds of bitcoins looking to get into monero without raising attention to his old wallet! He's already converted several btc but he wants to exchange much more. I'm not really sure his best course of action...?

[bitebits]

Both Monero and Bitcoin are destined to go up this and most likely whole next year. Swings down as Monero had last two days will for sure happen but general trend will be up. I dont see any other way. Number of transactions will be by far highest in October, no matter the protocol upgrade bad two days. Emission inflation is at 1.58%. That is just like Gold. Everything under $200 for all year high does not sound nice.    

I agree, though I think there are too many weak hands to ever see Monero > 1KUSD.

Though I think we will probably see XMR/BTC at 0.008 with BTC at 50K some day, so say 400usd for XMR.

FWIW I've held from 7usd to 480usd and back.

Emission is already below Bitcoin’s and the deficit is only going to increase over the short term. With atomic swaps coming soon^tm and a steep learning curve for properly using coinjoin, I think you may be underestimating the demand for a truly private/fungible currency. Especially whales who have been forced to keep funds frozen in their wallet to avoid detection.

Wow, I hadn’t thought about that use case yet. There could be a second market with a way higher XMR/BTC rate swapping for potentially dirty bitcoins.

[phishead]

Wow, I hadn’t thought about that use case yet. There could be a second market with a way higher XMR/BTC rate swapping for potentially dirty bitcoins.

What I don’t understand is what happens if someone wants to swap let’s say100 BTC in Monero, but no one else puts up 100 BTC worth of Monero to swap... where does it swap then? And does that Bitcoin just end up being locked until the swap is terminated?

[bitebits]

^ https://ccs.getmonero.org/proposals/h4sh3d-atomic-swap-implementation.html

For example, if you, as an end-user, want to acquire monero and have bitcoin, you'll launch a swap client that connects to a swap daemon, and connects to a counterparty that has monero and is looking to trade them for bitcoin at an agreed upon price. The swap client will give you an address where to move your bitcoin and, at the end of the swap, the swap client will display the monero key-pair to import into your wallet. You now own monero. If at some point the swap is canceled for any reason, your bitcoin will be refunded at the address you chose, making this exchange trustless.

[Krimster]

Especially whales who have been forced to keep funds frozen in their wallet to avoid detection.

That's funny and true. I know a guy who apparently has hundreds of bitcoins looking to get into monero without raising attention to his old wallet! He's already converted several btc but he wants to exchange much more. I'm not really sure his best course of action...?

Sounds similar to institutional investors that want to buy some stocks without drawing too much attention too early. You do it little by little over weeks or even months.

[sech1]

What I don’t understand is what happens if someone wants to swap let’s say100 BTC in Monero, but no one else puts up 100 BTC worth of Monero to swap... where does it swap then? And does that Bitcoin just end up being locked until the swap is terminated?

I think in that case the atomic swap market price will go up until supply/demand match. There will be a premium over regular exchanges.

Edit: the original swap will fail with both sides retaining their coins.

[Millionero]

I know a guy who apparently has hundreds of bitcoins looking to get into monero without raising attention to his old wallet! He's already converted several btc but he wants to exchange much more. I'm not really sure his best course of action...?

You can trade crypto-to-crypto on Bitfinex without kyc.  Your friend will need to use a vpn if he's in the U.S. to make it look like he's not.

[LennyCarl]

I know a guy who apparently has hundreds of bitcoins looking to get into monero without raising attention to his old wallet! He's already converted several btc but he wants to exchange much more. I'm not really sure his best course of action...?

You can trade crypto-to-crypto on Bitfinex without kyc.  Your friend will need to use a vpn if he's in the U.S. to make it look like he's not.

Cool. I'll suggest he look into it but if he can wait however long, atomic swap would be a nice option (!). But I have told him his old bitcoin should be nice and "untainted". He wants to buy something big with it, like a house, but not have it tracked back to his old wallet. It's not really my problem, lol, so I haven't researched it very hard.

[Febo]

Especially whales who have been forced to keep funds frozen in their wallet to avoid detection.

That's funny and true. I know a guy who apparently has hundreds of bitcoins looking to get into monero without raising attention to his old wallet! He's already converted several btc but he wants to exchange much more. I'm not really sure his best course of action...?

Sounds similar to institutional investors that want to buy some stocks without drawing too much attention too early. You do it little by little over weeks or even months.

They need to buy OTC. You will hard find any OTC where you dont need to KYC. But it is the only way to buy big amounts without moving market drastically.

... to ever see Monero > 1KUSD.

Ever? Really? I am totally positive Monero will be worth $10k in this decade. Not consider USD inflation. Lets say I am positive that Monero will be worth 5 oz of Gold in this decade.