[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TheKoziTwo]

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey...

It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery

I'm interested, you still holding?

Yes, did not sell a single monero since that post. And no plans of selling anytime soon. Historically Q1 is when altcoins pump, and this price drop seems like a huge overreaction to me. I'll admit it went further down than I expected, but I'm not too concerned. I imagine there will be support at 0.0042 which is the previous double top.

Oh and I have now increased my allocation to 100% altcoins. Most of that ETH, and XMR second largest holding.

[1714830875]

1714830875

[1714830875]

1714830875

[1714830875]

1714830875

[megadeth]

Not sure.  Was the 20k Polo buy whale dumped into?  If so, that's pretty capitulatey...

It was indeed. And I am now 26.6k XMR richer.

This is the lowest btc ratio since 2016. I'm seeing a lot of comments these days about how "it's different this time". No, it's not different. The smart money knows this and is picking up altcoins now and going forward from people who believe such thing. There will be a new rally for altcoins once again and it will catch a lot of people by surprise.

Monero has had tremendous technological progression and adoption over the last few years. "but fundamentals". None of that matters here. The main reason for this price drop was obviously the bear market and bitcoins recovery, however, something unexpected occurred after breaking 0.01 and that was massive margin liquidations. People who believe so strongly in monero that they'd leveraged up beyond reason were sadly getting crushed. The price went far lower than they expected and they were forced to let their coins go at the worst possible time. I think we may be in, or entering capitulation at this stage.

When the price was far higher I estimated a "worst-case" target to be ~0.007. Therefore I started buying at ~0.01 and decided to go in quite significantly around these levels we are now. I don't try to time exact bottoms, that is a fool's game and impossible at the scale I operate on anyway. There is still a risk that a continued bitcoin rally could put further pressure on altcoins. But what we're seeing here is unprecedented and the upside is now far greater. So from a risk/reward perspective, while the price could drop fruther, I think betting on further downside now is a bet with very high risk of missing out. If I've learned anything from more than half a decade trading alts, it's that when the market turns, it turns quickly. If I'm not positioned by then, I won't have time to.

There is something different this time though. I've always been a bitcoin holder. That is, I hold majority of my funds in bitcoin, rarely going below 70%. Not this time. I have decided to follow my own altcoin prediction to the fullest and increase my altcoin share significantly. In fact, I am, as of today more than 80% in altcoins and ready to increase that further. Monero just became my second largest holding. I haven't owned this much monero since during the xmrbtc rally in 2016.

Exciting times ahead. Or horrible misery

I'm interested, you still holding?

Yes, did not sell a single monero since that post. And no plans of selling anytime soon. Historically Q1 is when altcoins pump, and this price drop seems like a huge overreaction to me. I'll admit it went further down than I expected, but I'm not too concerned. I imagine there will be support at 0.0042 which is the previous double top.

Oh and I have now increased my allocation to 100% altcoins. Most of that ETH, and XMR second largest holding.

Based chad TKT 

[Hueristic]

Yes, did not sell a single monero since that post. And no plans of selling anytime soon. Historically Q1 is when altcoins pump, and this price drop seems like a huge overreaction to me. I'll admit it went further down than I expected, but I'm not too concerned. I imagine there will be support at 0.0042 which is the previous double top.

Oh and I have now increased my allocation to 100% altcoins. Most of that ETH, and XMR second largest holding.

Shit, you don't post enough anymore!
and then you decide to when I'm outta merits!

[BayAreaCoins]

I have been using Changelly now, which transfers between your own wallets. They dont have a book

Changelly Pro has a book
pro.changelly.com
It's pretty new and I only signed up today, so I can't say how good it is.

Tried to signup through Tor and got one message, and I quote.

Forbidden

So yeah I guess fuck changley.

Changelly did you a favor most likely.

FreeBitcoins allows Tor and has a quick swap exchange that lays over the top of our XChange's bid/ask.  https://freebitcoins.com/swap/

If you aren't a fan of Javascript... Our Swap tool has an API: https://freebitcoins.com/swap/api.html

XChange (bid/ask) has an API as well for non-javascript folks:  https://github.com/FreeBitcoins-com/docs

We also don't use google recaptcha because that shit sucks on tor.

The bid and ask need to be thicker, but at least we aren't faking volume I suppose...

Due to our XChange liquidity... it does make the Swap tool a little dangerous because Swap is basically just a market order button for nonaccount holders.  

[explorer]

 

  Only 15 BTC of buy orders on polo

[elrippos friend]

 

  Only 15 BTC of buy orders on polo

This is just a healthy correction, don't worry 

[starmman]

Yes, did not sell a single monero since that post. And no plans of selling anytime soon. Historically Q1 is when altcoins pump, and this price drop seems like a huge overreaction to me. I'll admit it went further down than I expected, but I'm not too concerned. I imagine there will be support at 0.0042 which is the previous double top.

Oh and I have now increased my allocation to 100% altcoins. Most of that ETH, and XMR second largest holding.

Wow ok, thanks for the update!

DOGE pump is usually a good sign for a bull alt market - hope some momentum builds in monero, the bear (BTC) market since October has taken me out of trading range

[Globb0]

Yes, did not sell a single monero since that post. And no plans of selling anytime soon. Historically Q1 is when altcoins pump, and this price drop seems like a huge overreaction to me. I'll admit it went further down than I expected, but I'm not too concerned. I imagine there will be support at 0.0042 which is the previous double top.

Oh and I have now increased my allocation to 100% altcoins. Most of that ETH, and XMR second largest holding.

Wow ok, thanks for the update!

DOGE pump is usually a good sign for a bull alt market - hope some momentum builds in monero, the bear (BTC) market since October has taken me out of trading range

Its a shame to be staring at the bitcoiners through the window of their restaurants.

Number 1 Privacy Hobo  lol

Also Id like to see this chart updated somehow.

[phishead]

Let the Saylors and Musks of the world have their fun. Remember, most of you are here for the long game and right now you just happened to experience a glitch in the price that essentially gives you a “buy one get one free” opportunity. For those that truly believe in the principles that OG Bitcoiners used to believe, here is your opportunity that will leave others kicking themselves down the road.

[Bitcoinaire]

Almost everything is pumping and monero continues to dump, ugggh.

[Still Tippin]

So many delusional bag holders here, its almost worse than the xrp army level of delusion.

[devollito]

I realy dont understand why privacy coin will be delisted, the first crypto coin launch it should be privacy for everyone but the circullation also transparrant. And XMR is the one of the very good privacy coin. Gov will always reject the privacy coin but privacy coin will always have its own user IMO

[Globb0]

I realy dont understand why privacy coin will be delisted, the first crypto coin launch it should be privacy for everyone but the circullation also transparrant. And XMR is the one of the very good privacy coin. Gov will always reject the privacy coin but privacy coin will always have its own user IMO

This is true.

They had a very long time to come up with a good reason to stop Monero.


I havent seen one yet.

Just the usual FUD

[mindrust]

I realy dont understand why privacy coin will be delisted, the first crypto coin launch it should be privacy for everyone but the circullation also transparrant. And XMR is the one of the very good privacy coin. Gov will always reject the privacy coin but privacy coin will always have its own user IMO

This is true.

They had a very long time to come up with a good reason to stop Monero.


I havent seen one yet.

Just the usual FUD

I don't think Bittrex is bluffing so I fail to see the FUD.

Also delisting privacy coins and letting the others go tells me something very important. They want us to be there. You decide if that's a good thing or not.

[explorer]

I realy dont understand why privacy coin will be delisted, the first crypto coin launch it should be privacy for everyone but the circullation also transparrant. And XMR is the one of the very good privacy coin. Gov will always reject the privacy coin but privacy coin will always have its own user IMO

This is true.

They had a very long time to come up with a good reason to stop Monero.


I havent seen one yet.

Just the usual FUD

I don't think Bittrex is bluffing so I fail to see the FUD.

Also delisting privacy coins and letting the others go tells me something very important. They want us to be there. You decide if that's a good thing or not.

I saw somewhere that another no-name no-volume exchange was following suit.  Increased liquidity and visibility for the legit exchanges?

[Globb0]

I realy dont understand why privacy coin will be delisted, the first crypto coin launch it should be privacy for everyone but the circullation also transparrant. And XMR is the one of the very good privacy coin. Gov will always reject the privacy coin but privacy coin will always have its own user IMO

This is true.

They had a very long time to come up with a good reason to stop Monero.


I havent seen one yet.

Just the usual FUD

I don't think Bittrex is bluffing so I fail to see the FUD.

Also delisting privacy coins and letting the others go tells me something very important. They want us to be there. You decide if that's a good thing or not.

There we go Mindrust endorsed.

The last coin he poo pooed was BTC at about 10K

How did that work out for you? despite all the warnings from genuinely concerned friends

I also heard you were now chasing tether

[Hueristic]

I realy dont understand why privacy coin will be delisted, the first crypto coin launch it should be privacy for everyone but the circullation also transparrant. And XMR is the one of the very good privacy coin. Gov will always reject the privacy coin but privacy coin will always have its own user IMO

This is true.

They had a very long time to come up with a good reason to stop Monero.


I havent seen one yet.

Just the usual FUD

I don't think Bittrex is bluffing so I fail to see the FUD.

Also delisting privacy coins and letting the others go tells me something very important. They want us to be there. You decide if that's a good thing or not.

There we go Mindrust endorsed.

The last coin he poo pooed was BTC at about 10K

How did that work out for you? despite all the warnings from genuinely concerned friends

I also heard you were now chasing tether

[cAPSLOCK]

'Haven’t heard of anything on the regulatory side. Presumably, it’s something specific to their [Bittrex] business.' - Jesse Powell (Kraken CEO)

https://twitter.com/jespow/status/1345117102009536512

I have a feeling someone is going to buy Bittrex.  Actually I imagine it is already underway.  Could be a traditional bank, or even Coinbase.

At least a possibility.

[explorer]

Code:

MONTHLY TRANSACTION COUNT
Monero	Bitcoin	Ratio
Jan 2021      1,035,596 9,447,839	10.96% est
Dec 2020	593,322	9,732,999	6.10%
Nov 2020	523,842	9,145,550	5.73%
Oct 2020	501,273	9,284,673	5.40%
Sep 2020	396,854	9,495,331	4.18%
Aug 2020	381,555	9,793,583	3.90%
Jul 2020	331,181	10,158,131	3.26%
Jun 2020	340,895	9,192,440	3.71%
May 2020	400,871	9,092,682	4.41%
Apr 2020	365,875	8,702,021	4.20%
Mar 2020	303,291	8,904,203	3.41%
Feb 2020	231,953	9,439,548	2.46%

Code:

TRANSACTIONS PER HOUR

Last hour	1019
24hr high	1620
24hr low	648
24hr avg.	1060
7 day avg.	855
30 day avg.	858

monero.how

[cAPSLOCK]

Code:

MONTHLY TRANSACTION COUNT
Monero	Bitcoin	Ratio
Jan 2021      1,035,596 9,447,839	10.96% est
Dec 2020	593,322	9,732,999	6.10%
Nov 2020	523,842	9,145,550	5.73%
Oct 2020	501,273	9,284,673	5.40%
Sep 2020	396,854	9,495,331	4.18%
Aug 2020	381,555	9,793,583	3.90%
Jul 2020	331,181	10,158,131	3.26%
Jun 2020	340,895	9,192,440	3.71%
May 2020	400,871	9,092,682	4.41%
Apr 2020	365,875	8,702,021	4.20%
Mar 2020	303,291	8,904,203	3.41%
Feb 2020	231,953	9,439,548	2.46%

Code:

TRANSACTIONS PER HOUR

Last hour	1019
24hr high	1620
24hr low	648
24hr avg.	1060
7 day avg.	855
30 day avg.	858

monero.how

As much as it pains me to say it, don't we think asome of the 1/21 volume it people getting XMR to exchanges or off them? 

That said the organic growth is undeniable.  What a shame XMR got hobbled by FUD during this.. lol.