There was a question about whether SuperNET would be able to generate $1 million USD per month in dividends. This must be a crazy impossible thing, isnt it?
Let us do some math!
We can do a top down sanity test to see if this is even possible. Now we are talking about $1 mil USD per month dividends, so $2 mil USD revenues. Let us assume a stable BTC exchange rate, no fair to achieve this if USD hyperinflation makes BTC $5000. Keep in mind that any financial instrument that is spitting out $1 mil per month in dividends will have a $1 billion marketcap at a dividend multiple of ~80. Since this sort of dividend level will only be achieved under massive growth scenarios, the dividend multiple of 80 is reasonable and with PE of 100+ common for growth stocks, a three digit dividend multiplier would not be surprising. With less than 1 million TOKEN that means a valuation of multiple BTC in these rosy scenarios, eg. 100x and more.
I have not spoken about these scenarios publicly before as I do not want people to be expecting any large gains. It also requires years of HODL to even be possible, so with the understanding that this is purely a theoretical discussion on valuations in hypothetical scenarios and I am not promising SuperNET will achieve this and it wont unless the community actively helps. But there is a chance that all things work out right and these things can happen, I cannot deny this either.
so, what will it take?
Global GDP is around $100 trillion USD. This is crazy big fiat number. It is a bit less than this, but by the end of the decade it should be quite close to this. I have predicted that by the end of the decade crypto will have 1% of global GDP. This would be $1 trillion in the crypto economy. Now, before you start laughing, I also made some other crazy predictions, like the marketcap of my assets would exceed 1 billion NXT.
http://nxtreporting.com/assetcap.php?cap=no-issuer&f=jl777-Assets shows it is almost halfway there already! I dont know how much fiat marketcap has been created in the last 4 months, probably a lot more than 100x what I have so not anywhere close to 1% of fiat in this area, but if just one guy can do this, what happens when there are dozens of people?
Assuming that there is $1 trillion in crypto economy, what percentage will SuperNET have a part in it? Let us assume 1%, this seems a safe estimate. SuperNET is no snot kitten and so 0.1% feels too small and 10% would only be possible if nobody else is competing with SuperNET, so 1% is probably a good order of magnitude. This is $10 billion USD per year of commerce that would be flowing through the SuperNET coins and assets. I like to use a standard reference fee of 0.1% (actually 1/1024) this is lower than any centralized exchange for trading commissions and something small enough most people wont care. this get the $10 billion USD to $10 million in fees and so 50% dividend is $5 mil per year or ~$400,000 per month. Not quite the million USD, but it is at least close. Of course, the 1% in crypto, 1% in SuperNET and 0.1% ave fee are three variables that are all quite speculative and subject to change, but without anything too crazy (other than 1% of GDP in crypto), we have a top down estimate.
Now I dont like using any top down estimates for any actual valuations as it is always so easy to say, XYZ will get 1% of TBD and so it must be worth 1% of it. without any bottom up model, this becomes just a marketing statement and I like to base my statements on math.
So, let us see if there is any reasonable way to add up to this $1 mil per month in dividends.
let us drill down to one single asset, FreeMarket. It is an auction site that is decentralized and is currently in beta. It will be charging a flat rate fee of 7.77 NXT and SuperNET is getting 20% of the listing fees. So we have 1.5 NXT per listing for the 0.1% fee slot. this means if the average auction listing is 1500 NXT then we are at the 0.1%, so this does not seem unreasonable. Now the first two figures 1% of fiat and 1% for SuperNET can be combined into 1/10000 of fiat. Let us see if this is realistic:
http://www.powersellersunite.com/auctionsitewatch.php shows about 300 million active listings at any given time, so the benchmark of 1/10000 is 30000 listings. I do not have the average duration of a listing, but if it is 2 weeks, then the 30000 listings figure does not seem like such a big hurdle. Just a few active stores and a good fraction of this would be achieved. The monthly revenue share would be 100,000 NXT, which is not so big, but this is from just one revshare deal and assuming a 1/10000 market penetration. At 5 cents per NXT, this alone would be 0.5% toward the million USD per month goal.
The crypto will not be able to get 1% of fiat across all markets, so to average 1% it needs to get a disproportionate share in the areas it is strong in. Let us indulge some generosity in the FreeMarket projections and say it will get 1/5000'th of fiat, this makes it achieve 1% of the $1 mil per month. Then the question is can there be 100 revenue sources that are of the same level as FreeMarket.
Clearly I cannot possibly do all 100 of these myself and so partnerships like FreeMarket is the SuperNET model. I can easily do 100+ revshare deals and NXTventure finance deals over the years. not all will be successful, but since they are revshare and not requiring big investment from SuperNET, it is possible to create a large network of affiliated revshare deals where all are benefiting from the combined effect. This is the larger SuperNET, beyond the core coins and the coins that are accessing the SuperNET.
We all know there has to be the "google"/"ebay" for crypto that is aggregating all of the crypto into a single "place". This network effect is already begun and for any of the above scenarios to have a chance to happen, SuperNET has to become this largest "place" in crypto.
James
P.S. The fact that so few have figured out the possible upside with the limited downside from the asset backed NAV, indicates that all the TOKEN purchasers are a cut above the average.
