KanoPool since 2014 🐈 - PPLNS and Solo 0.5% fee - Worldwide - 2438 blocks

[E]

By coincidence the CDF value is the same for the last 10 and last 25 blocks at 0.0159.

That's getting down there but we aren't at discovery level yet for the existence of "Luck".

I want to see 5 sigma on multiple independent sets of blocks, so you should be able to work out limits on my prior for PLuckExists  

kano, is it possible to change the calculation of CDF for the last n blocks to include diffs submitted since the last block?

With the current implementation, the last 5 blocks for example would stay bright green even if we never found another block...

From an accounting/profit analysis perspective it's a better representation of how a miner has done from (now) to (now-nblocks) if we include the non-productive time between (now) and (now-1block). edit: The non-productivity of inter-block time is a correlate of the independence of future outcomes from past.

edit: From another perspective, this also has the benefit of making the CDF values over time roughly continuous and differentiable and eliminates the variable phase shift of the current filter. For visualization and analysis this is beneficial.

Thoughts?

[baazju]

Yea those numbers look real fishy, even if they are based on just block finds.

[os2sam]

Wonder where they get their data as Slush surely isn't 147PH either.

It's calculated strictly from the block find rate.  Same as the total network hash rate.

[fubly]

I will vote for: last 50 blocks

[m_a17]

St Alfonso is here and he brought a POOPload of hashrate.
Bravo.

Is St Alfonso renting or is he a big bear that moved from another pool? Just seeing if its here to stay or just a short rental?

alfonso  just a short rental ....
 23:43  = 1,8PH
 02:48 = 199.44THs...

[ZACHM]

Got my S3 that had been down back up and running! 
Another 0.5 TH/s back on the pool!

[kano]

By coincidence the CDF value is the same for the last 10 and last 25 blocks at 0.0159.

That's getting down there but we aren't at discovery level yet for the existence of "Luck".

I want to see 5 sigma on multiple independent sets of blocks, so you should be able to work out limits on my prior for PLuckExists  

kano, is it possible to change the calculation of CDF for the last n blocks to include diffs submitted since the last block?

With the current implementation, the last 5 blocks for example would stay bright green even if we never found another block...

Yeah I'm betting on that not happening ... ... ... I see the pool differently to you.

From an accounting/profit analysis perspective it's a better representation of how a miner has done from (now) to (now-nblocks) if we include the non-productive time between (now) and (now-1block). edit: The non-productivity of inter-block time is a correlate of the independence of future outcomes from past.

If your accounting matters on the luck of a single block, I suggest you need a new job.
That table is there for that exact reason, to see how the pool is performing over time, not guess based on a single block.
Single block luck is so random that you'll be out of business pretty quickly if you base your decisions on that.
Hmm back on 24-July last year I can see you closing down your business when we found that 666.666% block
Edit: oh and of course a 666.666% or worse block is expected, on average, once every 785.8 blocks, so you gonna be going broke pretty regularly on larger pools.

edit: From another perspective, this also has the benefit of making the CDF values over time roughly continuous and differentiable and eliminates the variable phase shift of the current filter. For visualization and analysis this is beneficial.

Thoughts?

No, since that is including the completely unknown 'future block' into the calculations.
That's a table of facts, not predictions.
The header of every page on the site shows the current Diff% of the future block at "Shares:" and the time since that last block at "Pool:"

Regarding being continuous ...
That future prediction will also change with every single share submitted, so currently about every 714 nanoseconds ...
The blocks table information is generated once every time any code requests it and finds that it needs updating.
That's (normally) twice per block, once when a block is found and once again when a found block stats are corrected.
(when the ~ goes away)

[kano]

I deleted that link post and any post that quoted it.

Personally, I think that any site that wont show a picture and forces you to enable javascript is bad news to me.
I run FF noscript, and any site that doesn't let me on ... I don't use.

[firetreeactual]

I deleted that link post and any post that quoted it.

Personally, I think that any site that wont show a picture and forces you to enable javascript is bad news to me.
I run FF noscript, and any site that doesn't let me on ... I don't use.

Ditto. My advice as well to my hosting clients, so they can not make such mistakes on their own sites.

[kano]

I deleted that link post and any post that quoted it.

Personally, I think that any site that wont show a picture and forces you to enable javascript is bad news to me.
I run FF noscript, and any site that doesn't let me on ... I don't use.

Ditto. My advice as well to my hosting clients, so they can not make such mistakes on their own sites.

Though of course there is the funny side to that
kano.is requires javascript
(Edit: but only if you want to login)

[nhando]

Why does some Bitcoin payment get process very quickly while others takes hours?  I have payments that are still showing as pending 3hrs later.  I thought this is the benefit of digital currency is for speed.

[ZACHM]

Why does some Bitcoin payment get process very quickly while others takes hours?  I have payments that are still showing as pending 3hrs later.  I thought this is the benefit of digital currency is for speed.

If the transactions are not an included in the blocks they don't get processed. This is the problem with other pools not including transactions and mining empty blocks. It creates a backlog of transactions and they take a long time to get processed by the smaller pools that are including them.

[citronick]

I'd like to point out that the SG node was responsible for the second last block. In addition to it being found there, with the latest node code added to ckpool it was submitted to the local bitcoind on the SG node before the main pool did, further decreasing the chance of a block being orphaned.

Code:

[2016-01-12 15:44:08.413] Possible block solve diff 170121647413.087646 !
[2016-01-12 15:44:08.603] BLOCK ACCEPTED!
[2016-01-12 15:44:08.604] Solved and confirmed block 393021 by bery89.82s3

This is the code kano was waiting on (me writing) before deploying these remote nodes to make it worthwhile to create remote mining locations. We may deploy one more remote location soon. There may also be more updates at the main pool to improve how remote nodes behave.

I am so happy with this news - thanks to Bery's s3 - kopi on me when you come to Clementi area.
This proves that Kano can scale up. I hope the solo pool in SG will help hit the winner soon too.

I was with another pool prior to fully moving to Kano Dec last year.
That pool has SG and CN nodes and regularly find blocks.
More kano nodes at international sites, with mega telco/Internet exchanges and ISPs (ie. JP, HK, KR, AU...) , in addition to SG will definitely help reduce orphans.

[E]

Yeah I'm betting on that not happening ... ... ... I see the pool differently to you.

Peace offering sent via PM -- I hopethink this is a misunderstanding?

E

[E]

That table is there for that exact reason, to see how the pool is performing over time, not guess based on a single block.
Single block luck is so random that you'll be out of business pretty quickly if you base your decisions on that.

For sure, I agree that the the only luck/CDF numbers that really matter are if the long-term averages drop significantly below expectation value. Like, if the 50 block or above hit a CDF of 0.9999 we'd have to wonder if there was something wrong with the pool that was making us miss blocks.

 
So here's an example of the question I'm asking over a longer time frame: we have a pretty solid streak of 25 blocks in 8 days and are averaging 3.125/day. Then a drought hits. We clock another two days and no block has shown up. Is our luck over the last 25 blocks now as good? We've done 25 blocks in 10 days, or only 2.5/day.

Basically if the CDF doesn't update until we get a new block, we don't know how unlucky the current block is making the pool over time until it actually comes in, where as another way to view it is that the current block is decreasing our long term luck in a semi-continuous fashion.

I should just clarify that my intent is monitoring and understanding the pool + curiosity - this is coming from someone who has claimed organofcorti's bounty for typos in the neighborhood pool watch, and I don't read it to make pool hopping decisions!

[E]

Last post on this:

* = block for us
. = networkDiff/5 diffs submitted
` , ' = start and end of luck calculation window

At present:

Code:

*`.........*...*.*.....*...*'..             CDF 0.231
*`.........*...*.*.....*...*'........       CDF 0.231
*`.........*...*.*.....*...*'...........    CDF 0.231
*`.........*...*.*.....*...*'..........................................    CDF 0.231

My Suggestion (simplified for fixed network difficulty across window):

Code:

*..`.......*...*.*.....*...*..'             CDF 0.231
*........`.*...*.*.....*...*........'       CDF 0.231
*.........`*...*.*.....*...*...........'    CDF 0.305
*.........`*...*.*.....*...*..........................................'     CDF 0.972

[vh]

Ant pool just found 5 blocks in less than 15 minutes. I just found out bitcoin is broken. Great.

it will adjust itself on the next difficulty adjustment (in a few hours).   thus the cycle of of bitcoin life.

[nhando]

I deleted that link post and any post that quoted it.

Personally, I think that any site that wont show a picture and forces you to enable javascript is bad news to me.
I run FF noscript, and any site that doesn't let me on ... I don't use.

Ahh, this makes sense.  I got an email saying my post was deleted and was like......................WHAT DID I DO WRONG?  I responded to that quote.

P.S We're ready for a BLOCK! 

[Mikestang]

The Gambler's Fallacy annoyance

oh and of course a 666.666% or worse block is expected, on average, once every 785.8 blocks

Exactly my point, we can expect red blocks.

I am so happy with this news - thanks to Bery's s3 - kopi on me when you come to Clementi area.
This proves that Kano can scale up. I hope the solo pool in SG will help hit the winner soon too.

Same here, I love when an S3 solves a block at these large difficulties, it gives me motivation to keep mine running on cksolo.

Personally, I think that any site that wont show a picture and forces you to enable javascript is bad news to me.
I run FF noscript, and any site that doesn't let me on ... I don't use.

Ditto, it's amazing how many things are hiding on web pages that most people who don't use noscript never even know about.

[VRobb]

I take it difficulty just went up.    Checked the blocks page and the shares % went down a little from last I looked.  Not all the way down like we want, tho! Let's get a block popped at the new diff, mojo activate!

Edit-ah, now at a little over 113G, a mere dawdle!