Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Afrikoin]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QvjyuWzn/?utm_content=buffer73ab9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 David Alcindor also calling for $260

Also this https://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/

Has trend lines at $210 and extended levels showing possible retracement supports (to $260 - as a spike perhaps?)

PS: I'm not discounting the overall bear/EW. I use EW + any other analysis i can get that makes sense.

EDIT: Pic

[1715299966]

1715299966

[oda.krell]

No EW whatsoever. Sue me :D

- Price action since last week, while not exactly impulsive, differs from e.g. the December breakdown in that there seems to be less panic. Mildly bullish.

- Volume of the latest move on daily (~1 week) supports further downtrend through.

- Bid/Ask on BS and BF holding up so far, recovering even.

- Strongest case for the bears (imo): mid term momentum (~50 days on regular MA) is broken, which meant further price decline all throughout 2014.

- Case for the bulls: daily (bullish) divergence on MACD hist. We'll find out if only "delays the inevitable" (i.e. breakdown), or if we're finding support here (i.e. above 200). I lean towards the former (perhaps brief touch of ~240, then back to 210-220 and lower), but I'm not entirely ruling out a bullish scenario either.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

No EW whatsoever. Sue me

- Price action since last week, while not exactly impulsive, differs from e.g. the December breakdown in that there seems to be less panic. Mildly bullish.

- Volume of the latest move on daily (~1 week) supports further downtrend through.

- Bid/Ask on BS and BF holding up so far, recovering even.

- Strongest case for the bears (imo): mid term momentum (~50 days on regular MA) is broken, which meant further price decline all throughout 2014.

- Case for the bulls: daily (bullish) divergence on MACD hist. We'll find out if only "delays the inevitable" (i.e. breakdown), or if we're finding support here (i.e. above 200). I lean towards the former (perhaps brief touch of ~240, then back to 210-220 and lower), but I'm not entirely ruling out a bullish scenario either.

Covering all bases there?



'It might go up or it might go down'

[oda.krell]

...

Covering all bases there?

:D

'It might go up or it might go down'


;)

Hehe, sounded like that maybe, but not really what I meant... in numbers, I'd give it a 2:1 chance of further decline (informal probability model, before you ask). In terms of market bets, that's pretty damn close to saying "I'm certain. Almost." :P

[JustAnotherSheep]

- Case for the bulls: daily (bullish) divergence on MACD hist. We'll find out if only "delays the inevitable" (i.e. breakdown), or if we're finding support here (i.e. above 200). I lean towards the former (perhaps brief touch of ~240, then back to 210-220 and lower), but I'm not entirely ruling out a bullish scenario either.

[Non-EW Post]
I have never really paid much attention to the MACD hist before, but I'm assuming you've used it previously in your analysis. How valid a signal would you say the histogram divergence is? Equal predictive value as regular MACD divs, or less so?
[/Non-EW Post]

[oda.krell]

- Case for the bulls: daily (bullish) divergence on MACD hist. We'll find out if only "delays the inevitable" (i.e. breakdown), or if we're finding support here (i.e. above 200). I lean towards the former (perhaps brief touch of ~240, then back to 210-220 and lower), but I'm not entirely ruling out a bullish scenario either.

[Non-EW Post]
I have never really paid much attention to the MACD hist before, but I'm assuming you've used it previously in your analysis. How valid a signal would you say the histogram divergence is? Equal predictive value as regular MACD divs, or less so?
[/Non-EW Post]

Honestly, I'm not sure. I've previously asked two traders I respect (ryn and luc), and both said, more or less, they don't trust MACD histogram divergences much. I'm mentioning this because these two have a lot more experience in market analysis than I do.

In my own experience, the MACD hist is a pretty reliable, if nervous, momentum indicator, across time scales, so I would expect divergences on it to hold some value. But as with all divergences spotting them is one thing, but determining how much weight they carry at any given time is another (i.e. they can be neutralized, and they can come to effect with a delay).

tl;dr I don't know how much value you should assign to hist/f'' divergences exactly. I like to track them, and don't entirely dismiss them, but I suspect more experienced traders have a point when they say they're not too reliable.

/off topic

[h3speros]

No EW whatsoever. Sue me

- Price action since last week, while not exactly impulsive, differs from e.g. the December breakdown in that there seems to be less panic. Mildly bullish.

- Volume of the latest move on daily (~1 week) supports further downtrend through.

- Bid/Ask on BS and BF holding up so far, recovering even.

- Strongest case for the bears (imo): mid term momentum (~50 days on regular MA) is broken, which meant further price decline all throughout 2014.

- Case for the bulls: daily (bullish) divergence on MACD hist. We'll find out if only "delays the inevitable" (i.e. breakdown), or if we're finding support here (i.e. above 200). I lean towards the former (perhaps brief touch of ~240, then back to 210-220 and lower), but I'm not entirely ruling out a bullish scenario either.

And i would dismiss MACD histograms div, but that is just me.

If we close above daily SMA20, MACD goes above zero, RSI goes above 50, then we could continue our correction from 166 bottom a bit more higher, but that doesn't mean that THE bottom/capitulation would be in. EDIT: Otherwise/likely we are bleeding until (maybe final) capitulation.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

This is my adjusted count. having recognized the clear form of the triangle the moment it resolved I should have seen this one earlier.

Note that having a clear impulse count down to the 1335 level (just 35yuan short of my minimum target) it is possible, but not overly probable, and certainly not confirmed that an ABC, the yellow count, is playing out. My dominant count is however unchanged, I think there is significant risk of sub 1000 yuan retest soon.

Looks like we reached your target now on OKCoin.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

Looks like we won't see 240? Seems like we're just going down instead

we definitley won't

[chessnut]

Looks like we reached your target now on OKCoin.

It was a triangle thrust. good triangle form and characteristically sharp. we could see a little higher from here but the fact that we have just penetrated the upper trendline doesnt bother me, the complete count is very strong. Upside is very limited here.

[damiano]

Looks like we reached your target now on OKCoin.

It was a triangle thrust. good triangle form and characteristically sharp. we could see a little higher from here but the fact that we have just penetrated the upper trendline doesnt bother me, the complete count is very strong. Upside is very limited here.

Do you anticipate 240-245?

[chessnut]

Looks like we reached your target now on OKCoin.

It was a triangle thrust. good triangle form and characteristically sharp. we could see a little higher from here but the fact that we have just penetrated the upper trendline doesnt bother me, the complete count is very strong. Upside is very limited here.

Do you anticipate 240-245?

No not that high. 240 would be a push.

[coinableS]

Looks like we reached your target now on OKCoin.

It was a triangle thrust. good triangle form and characteristically sharp. we could see a little higher from here but the fact that we have just penetrated the upper trendline doesnt bother me, the complete count is very strong. Upside is very limited here.

Do you anticipate 240-245?

No not that high. 240 would be a push.

Looks like your on track again chessnut, so next comes the drop according to your main count?

[chessnut]

Looks like we reached your target now on OKCoin.

It was a triangle thrust. good triangle form and characteristically sharp. we could see a little higher from here but the fact that we have just penetrated the upper trendline doesnt bother me, the complete count is very strong. Upside is very limited here.

Do you anticipate 240-245?

No not that high. 240 would be a push.

Looks like your on track again chessnut, so next comes the drop according to your main count?

With the form of the triangle and thrust alone, I would be confident in looking for a medium term top here, but the potential of the dominant count is devastatingly bearish. it would be (iii) of iii to follow. What follows will be interesting to watch.

[micalith]

I've been lurking here for months. Quite impressed.

I'd like to get round to learning EW soon. Could you recommend any books or courses? Cheers

[madmat]

I've been lurking here for months. Quite impressed.

I'd like to get round to learning EW soon. Could you recommend any books or courses? Cheers

You need to learn EW and trading. Good analysts are often wrong, but they know when to close a loosing position.

[bigtimespaghetti]

I've been lurking here for months. Quite impressed.

I'd like to get round to learning EW soon. Could you recommend any books or courses? Cheers

Martin J Pring is a good starting point in my opinion. You can find PDFs and seminars easily available on the internet, and his books are pretty popular too.

[WhatTheGox]

Looks like we reached your target now on OKCoin.

It was a triangle thrust. good triangle form and characteristically sharp. we could see a little higher from here but the fact that we have just penetrated the upper trendline doesnt bother me, the complete count is very strong. Upside is very limited here.

Do you anticipate 240-245?

No not that high. 240 would be a push.

Im going to make a prediction now that will will smash through 240 very easy, the market is just sat below charging up for another run.  Lets see if im wrong in a few days

[damiano]

Looks like we reached your target now on OKCoin.

It was a triangle thrust. good triangle form and characteristically sharp. we could see a little higher from here but the fact that we have just penetrated the upper trendline doesnt bother me, the complete count is very strong. Upside is very limited here.

Do you anticipate 240-245?

No not that high. 240 would be a push.

Looks like your correct.  We just got near 240 (239) and a 5k wall popped up right there along with heavy ask's going all the way up.

[bigtimespaghetti]

I'm just going to quietly leave this here 

https://1broker.com/m/r.php?i=3589


Thanks for thread, as always

What's the big deal? I was trading bitcoin with plus500 more than a year ago.