Critical Levels - EW analysis

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

Small adventure towards 270-260 territory with another correction going lower than 200, then a slow ass recovery through an entire year, thats what I see right now.

[1714663530]

1714663530

[1714663530]

1714663530

[itod]

Spend a few years studying EW and there will be magic times. It cant happen very often, but sometimes the form of a count is strong and supported by many various and compounding factors of evidence.The market tends so strongly to play out to textbook EW guidlines, not only in direction but character also, that those involved could hardly deny that it is truly the nature of the market observed. The best examples of this happening are the modest moves, Ending diagonals and triangles in particular.

What turns me of in investing so much time in learning EW is the fact there's no notion of volume in EW. Or is there in some way I'm not aware of? I've seen many times that volume-related indicators are one of the most reliable of them all.

[btc4lifer]

What turns me of in investing so much time in learning EW is the fact there's no notion of volume in EW. Or is there in some way I'm not aware of?

EW in a vacuum is not much good. EWO, fib retracement and volume help you tease out specific waves and targets for future price movement.

/blah

[RyNinDaCleM]

What turns me of in investing so much time in learning EW is the fact there's no notion of volume in EW. Or is there in some way I'm not aware of?

EW in a vacuum is not much good. EWO, fib retracement and volume help you tease out specific waves and targets for future price movement.

/blah

blah
That is exactly right
/blah

Third waves generally have the highest volumes and fifth waves generally diverge volume-wise.
Motive waves with the larger trend see rising volume during the move and corrective waves see declining volume. So, without even trying to count this, it's easy to see where the corrections are and what are motive waves.

[itod]

What turns me of in investing so much time in learning EW is the fact there's no notion of volume in EW. Or is there in some way I'm not aware of?

EW in a vacuum is not much good. EWO, fib retracement and volume help you tease out specific waves and targets for future price movement.

/blah

blah
That is exactly right
/blah

Third waves generally have the highest volumes and fifth waves generally diverge volume-wise.
Motive waves with the larger trend see rising volume during the move and corrective waves see declining volume. So, without even trying to count this, it's easy to see where the corrections are and what are motive waves.

If that's so, how come the volume is rarely mentioned in this thread, almost never?

[btc4lifer]

If that's so, how come the volume is rarely mentioned in this thread, almost never?

They support the primary content. They are not the primary content.

Plus, lines on charts are more fun. 

[chessnut]

What turns me of in investing so much time in learning EW is the fact there's no notion of volume in EW. Or is there in some way I'm not aware of? I've seen many times that volume-related indicators are one of the most reliable of them all.

If that's so, how come the volume is rarely mentioned in this thread, almost never?

They support the primary content. They are not the primary content.

Plus, lines on charts are more fun. 

Volume is a lagging indicator. It is characteristic of the third wave to have the most volume, and characteristic that there is less on the fifth wave. it is characteristic that volume dries up at the end of wave C. It is written about in the EW principle, but its just not useful to us. Really you want to be in the right position before the volume arrives.

[JustAnotherSheep]

What do you guys make of this? I count 3 waves in expected C position, which doesn't seem to make sense unless it's either wave C of a complex formation (implying that the whole rise is (B) rather than (2)), or a WXY (which, if I understand correctly, can occur in Wave 2 position), or I've simply counted wrong

[chessnut]

What do you guys make of this? I count 3 waves in expected C position, which doesn't seem to make sense unless it's either wave C of a complex formation (implying that the whole rise is (B) rather than (2)), or a WXY (which, if I understand correctly, can occur in Wave 2 position), or I've simply counted wrong

Seems like a sensible count to me, although counting complex corrective is not really helpful from a trading point of view until the correction is clearly complete. A lot of alternate counts could happen. No need to label W or X yet, and there is no wave D in EW analysis apart from in a trianlge. Im pretty sure that wave C there is an impulse, not an abc (by definition). Technicaly, the crrection may be complete already. Time will tell.

[Afrikoin]

DanV calling for $100 (EW)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6S9Si6F7-BTCUSD-STILL-REMAINS-IN-OVERALL-BEARISH-CYCLE-UPDATE/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_follower_comment

[inca]

DanV calling for $100 (EW)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6S9Si6F7-BTCUSD-STILL-REMAINS-IN-OVERALL-BEARISH-CYCLE-UPDATE/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_follower_comment

Technical analysis in a vacuum. What could go wrong

[Chef Ramsay]

DanV calling for $100 (EW)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6S9Si6F7-BTCUSD-STILL-REMAINS-IN-OVERALL-BEARISH-CYCLE-UPDATE/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_follower_comment

Technical analysis in a vacuum. What could go wrong

Some people make charts just to do so apparently. It's more than bold considering that certain tools have appeared on the market recently and still yet in the near future. Bears have an addiction to feed, I guess.

[Afrikoin]

DanV calling for $100 (EW)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6S9Si6F7-BTCUSD-STILL-REMAINS-IN-OVERALL-BEARISH-CYCLE-UPDATE/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_follower_comment

Technical analysis in a vacuum. What could go wrong

Some people make charts just to do so apparently. It's more than bold considering that certain tools have appeared on the market recently and still yet in the near future. Bears have an addiction to feed, I guess.

If i had to pick 3 analysts, he'd be on my list. Any reasons for your objection (TA)?

[phoenix1]

Technical analysis in a vacuum. What could go wrong

Hang on ... yesterday you were suggesting this :

Ignore the short term technicals - they are manipulated heavily. The long term exponential trend line is all that matters. Everything else is noise.

Now that's what I call TA in a vacuum  - what could possibly go wrong

FWIW if you took the time to read DanV latest post there is a wealth of useful info that he is sharing. He is a whole lot more open-minded than you, that's for sure.

2nd time in 2 days you've trolled the 2 open EW-based threads here. If you dislike it so much and it's so utterly useless why are you even watching them ?

[oda.krell]

2nd time in 2 days you've trolled the 2 open EW-based threads here. If you dislike it so much and it's so utterly useless why are you even watching them ?

I would like to point out that complaining about DanV's analysis is hardly the sign of an uber-bull / EW hater. Plenty of bears (and EW lovers) do so as well

To his (DanV's) credit, he has been on the "prolonged bear market" train for a long time, but his targets and counts tend to be quite off, at least that's the impression I got over the last year or so.

[Afrikoin]

2nd time in 2 days you've trolled the 2 open EW-based threads here. If you dislike it so much and it's so utterly useless why are you even watching them ?

I would like to point out that complaining about DanV's analysis is hardly the sign of an uber-bull / EW hater. Plenty of bears (and EW lovers) do so as well

To his (DanV's) credit, he has been on the "prolonged bear market" train for a long time, but his targets and counts tend to be quite off, at least that's the impression I got over the last year or so.

I have found his forecasts incredibly useful. Proper TA traders wouldn't fault him for his off the mark targets because, they are probabilities - just to give a sense of direction!

That line of argument --his targets are off-- is tired TBH. Are there analysts who forecast price action right down to the mark? name me one

Last time , he said we'd go down  to around $210 then back up to a higher price. Now how was that off the mark???

Also, i wonder how many actually bother to sit through his hangouts? He always adds caveats

 

[phoenix1]

@ oda.krell - click on the inca quote to see the rest of it - does not sound like an EW fan to me, and I never mentioned anything about 'uber-bull'

@ Africoin - Agreed, there are so many caveats, and even in this latest analysis, he patiently answers questions about invalidations, alternative paths etc. It is by no means 'TA in a vacuum'
He provides valuable insights IMO

Primary counts on smaller time frames will likely be frequently invalidated in EW, but that is absolutely part of the system. Knowing when it is time to move to the alt count, and having one ready, is what makes it an art and not a science. Price action evolves, counts evolve with it ...

[oda.krell]

I have found his forecasts incredibly useful. Proper TA traders wouldn't fault him for his off the mark targets because, they are probabilities - just to give a sense of direction!

That line of argument --his targets are off-- is tired TBH. Are there analysts who forecast price action right down to the mark? name me one

Last time , he said we'd go down  to around $210 then back up to a higher price. Now how was that off the mark???

Also, i wonder how many actually bother to sit through his hangouts? He always adds caveats

You sound a bit cranky.

I already gave him credit for being a mid-term bear when it wasn't in fashion (mid 2014).

The rest of this argument runs down to how useful you find his analysis on a shorter-term basis - you do, I don't. And, personally, I find it "tired" to quote caveats as an excuse for anything. I tend to throw them out like candy myself, doesn't mean my predictions are any better because of it hehe.

Anyway, said what I wanted to say, so from my side: /ot

[bassclef]

2nd time in 2 days you've trolled the 2 open EW-based threads here. If you dislike it so much and it's so utterly useless why are you even watching them ?

I would like to point out that complaining about DanV's analysis is hardly the sign of an uber-bull / EW hater. Plenty of bears (and EW lovers) do so as well

To his (DanV's) credit, he has been on the "prolonged bear market" train for a long time, but his targets and counts tend to be quite off, at least that's the impression I got over the last year or so.

I have found his forecasts incredibly useful. Proper TA traders wouldn't fault him for his off the mark targets because, they are probabilities - just to give a sense of direction!

That line of argument --his targets are off-- is tired TBH. Are there analysts who forecast price action right down to the mark? name me one

Last time , he said we'd go down  to around $210 then back up to a higher price. Now how was that off the mark???

Also, i wonder how many actually bother to sit through his hangouts? He always adds caveats
 

Giving your money to the market because of what an anonymous analyst says is a bad idea. If they were making such consistently great predictions they'd have no need to post their "trading ideas." What they want is to create a following so their own trades have a greater chance of being profitable. Even if they are wrong sometimes, it's likely that they can get out of a bad trade faster than you, leaving their followers stuck on the wrong side of the market.

Don't be a minnow--learn to read the market on your own or you'll lose when one of these trusted chartists turns out to be wrong.

[chessnut]

Giving your money to the market because of what an anonymous analyst says is a bad idea. If they were making such consistently great predictions they'd have no need to post their "trading ideas." What they want is to create a following so their own trades have a greater chance of being profitable. Even if they are wrong sometimes, it's likely that they can get out of a bad trade faster than you, leaving their followers stuck on the wrong side of the market.

Don't be a minnow--learn to read the market on your own or you'll lose when one of these trusted chartists turns out to be wrong.

This is totally wrong. No analyst can make money running such a ponzi scheme. The market is so much bigger than that. The whole basis of EW analysis is that the crowd gets emotional sometimes. They make the mistake and then we make the trade, not vice versa.

I make money trading, and I dont need to post anything, but I continue to post my charts. Its a way to log my trades and I enjoy sharing.

Its difficult to make money with even the best analysis, thats basic knowledge, you have to be a good trader, you have to be in control, and you have to be able to think for yourself, on your feet.