Critical Levels - EW analysis

[bassclef]

Giving your money to the market because of what an anonymous analyst says is a bad idea. If they were making such consistently great predictions they'd have no need to post their "trading ideas." What they want is to create a following so their own trades have a greater chance of being profitable. Even if they are wrong sometimes, it's likely that they can get out of a bad trade faster than you, leaving their followers stuck on the wrong side of the market.

Don't be a minnow--learn to read the market on your own or you'll lose when one of these trusted chartists turns out to be wrong.

This is totally wrong. No analyst can make money running such a ponzi scheme. The market is so much bigger than that. The whole basis of EW analysis is that the crowd gets emotional sometimes. They make the mistake and then we make the trade, not vice versa.

I make money trading, and I dont need to post anything, but I continue to post my charts. Its a way to log my trades and I enjoy sharing.

Its difficult to make money with even the best analysis, thats basic knowledge, you have to be a good trader, you have to be in control, and you have to be able to think for yourself, on your feet.

I hear you and I do appreciate your analysis. I make money too. It's just that a)bitcoin is a very thinly traded market with a handful of interests doing the heavy lifting and b)there are a lot of green traders trying to keep their heads above water. The I think it's probably not so hard for the big whales to keep an eye on the most popular and influential technicians' work from a perspective that they look for every opportunity to better their positions. Making money in markets is a serious business. I do enjoy helping people out but there is that inherent risk of making certain information public which is why I do not share most of my analysis. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

It seems like every time the market moves there is a new crop of traders hungry for information but provided with a lot of misdirection. The basics of money and risk management are not obvious to them and the market is quick to take their money. Trading is so much more than simply going short or long at xyz price. Technicians are quick to talk their book but short on information about how they keep from losing their profits. This is what I'd like to see taught. Unfortunately crowd behavior is prevalent and I fear it would be a futile endeavor for all but a small number of traders. People just don't want to put in the work. But keep on keepin' on, I do enjoy learning about EW as I'm more of a price/volume guy.

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[madmat]

One question for traders, not analysts.

Lets say you open a long position, buying at 1500, with a target at 1600 in 5 days and a stop loss at 1450. After 2 days, price is at 1550. Is it a good thing to move up your stop loss, e.g. at 1500, or you don't touch it until target is reached or the 5 days are done ?

[bigtimespaghetti]

One question for traders, not analysts.

Lets say you open a long position, buying at 1500, with a target at 1600 in 5 days and a stop loss at 1450. After 2 days, price is at 1550. Is it a good thing to move up your stop loss, e.g. at 1500, or you don't touch it until target is reached or the 5 days are done ?

I think it really depends on your strategy, but moving your stop loss up is a good way to avoid losing money. I think many of the other more experienced posters here will better be able to give you some examples.

[bassclef]

One question for traders, not analysts.

Lets say you open a long position, buying at 1500, with a target at 1600 in 5 days and a stop loss at 1450. After 2 days, price is at 1550. Is it a good thing to move up your stop loss, e.g. at 1500, or you don't touch it until target is reached or the 5 days are done ?

Traders are analysts too

Ideally you'd move your stop to breakeven. In reality Bitcoin is such a choppy market that stops in obvious places will probably get hit unless the trend is super strong in one direction. Just pay attention as most stop-hunting takes place on relatively low volume and use discretion.

Once your target is hit you can move the stop up closer to the price and let it take you out (or use a trailing stop), that way you can take advantage of any additional price rises.

[madmat]

One question for traders, not analysts.

Lets say you open a long position, buying at 1500, with a target at 1600 in 5 days and a stop loss at 1450. After 2 days, price is at 1550. Is it a good thing to move up your stop loss, e.g. at 1500, or you don't touch it until target is reached or the 5 days are done ?

Traders are analysts too

Ideally you'd move your stop to breakeven. In reality Bitcoin is such a choppy market that stops in obvious places will probably get hit unless the trend is super strong in one direction. Just pay attention as most stop-hunting takes place on relatively low volume and use discretion.

Once your target is hit you can move the stop up closer to the price and let it take you out (or use a trailing stop), that way you can take advantage of any additional price rises.

Thanks for this answer. I know traders are analysts, but i see more discussions about analysis, and a good analysis is not enough to earn money. I already lost some long trades due to stop loss placed too high, so i am carefull to set them below the support. I already played with trailing stop on kraken, and i think fine tuning is hard if you don't want to miss big moves.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

Small adventure towards 270-260 territory with another correction going lower than 200, then a slow ass recovery through an entire year, thats what I see right now.

and it seems quite fortunate

[RyNinDaCleM]

This is totally wrong. No analyst can make money running such a ponzi scheme. The market is so much bigger than that. The whole basis of EW analysis is that the crowd gets emotional sometimes. They make the mistake and then we make the trade, not vice versa.

I make money trading, and I dont need to post anything, but I continue to post my charts. Its a way to log my trades and I enjoy sharing.

Its difficult to make money with even the best analysis, thats basic knowledge, you have to be a good trader, you have to be in control, and you have to be able to think for yourself, on your feet.

I hear you and I do appreciate your analysis. I make money too. It's just that a)bitcoin is a very thinly traded market with a handful of interests doing the heavy lifting and b)there are a lot of green traders trying to keep their heads above water. The I think it's probably not so hard for the big whales to keep an eye on the most popular and influential technicians' work from a perspective that they look for every opportunity to better their positions. Making money in markets is a serious business. I do enjoy helping people out but there is that inherent risk of making certain information public which is why I do not share most of my analysis. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

+1 to both of you.

One question for traders, not analysts.

Lets say you open a long position, buying at 1500, with a target at 1600 in 5 days and a stop loss at 1450. After 2 days, price is at 1550. Is it a good thing to move up your stop loss, e.g. at 1500, or you don't touch it until target is reached or the 5 days are done ?

Traders are analysts too

Ideally you'd move your stop to breakeven. In reality Bitcoin is such a choppy market that stops in obvious places will probably get hit unless the trend is super strong in one direction. Just pay attention as most stop-hunting takes place on relatively low volume and use discretion.

Once your target is hit you can move the stop up closer to the price and let it take you out (or use a trailing stop), that way you can take advantage of any additional price rises.

Thanks for this answer. I know traders are analysts, but i see more discussions about analysis, and a good analysis is not enough to earn money. I already lost some long trades due to stop loss placed too high, so i am carefull to set them below the support. I already played with trailing stop on kraken, and i think fine tuning is hard if you don't want to miss big moves.

Stops are good... USUALLY. In Bitcoin, they can be very dangerous. Mostly due to order depth being too shallow. If you set a stop right now, a large enough sell would blow through it and your stop would sell you out at the bottom and you'd be looking in disbelief as the price heads higher without you. This happens in both directions, obviously. It's safer to decide an absolute mental stop, set an alarm on your phone when the price is hit and assess the situation before exiting. When the price spikes against you, you can almost always get a better price than what you see at the time of sell-off.

[madmat]

Stops are good... USUALLY. In Bitcoin, they can be very dangerous. Mostly due to order depth being too shallow. If you set a stop right now, a large enough sell would blow through it and your stop would sell you out at the bottom and you'd be looking in disbelief as the price heads higher without you. This happens in both directions, obviously. It's safer to decide an absolute mental stop, set an alarm on your phone when the price is hit and assess the situation before exiting. When the price spikes against you, you can almost always get a better price than what you see at the time of sell-off.

Thanks for your answer. I completely agree with that, but i don't have access to okcoin all the time. When i am in meetings or when i am out, i prefer to have a stop. During nights, I set a stop too. I also have alarms on my phone, i use bitcoin checker for that, but it is hard to stay 24/7 in front of the computer. I imagine that if you have really big positions, you really have to stick with it.

[SkyValeey]

Technical analysis in a vacuum. What could go wrong

Hang on ... yesterday you were suggesting this :

Ignore the short term technicals - they are manipulated heavily. The long term exponential trend line is all that matters. Everything else is noise.

Now that's what I call TA in a vacuum  - what could possibly go wrong

FWIW if you took the time to read DanV latest post there is a wealth of useful info that he is sharing. He is a whole lot more open-minded than you, that's for sure.

2nd time in 2 days you've trolled the 2 open EW-based threads here. If you dislike it so much and it's so utterly useless why are you even watching them ?

inca is troll, he don't know anything about analysis, another bulltard to ignore imho

[sidhujag]

This is totally wrong. No analyst can make money running such a ponzi scheme. The market is so much bigger than that. The whole basis of EW analysis is that the crowd gets emotional sometimes. They make the mistake and then we make the trade, not vice versa.

I make money trading, and I dont need to post anything, but I continue to post my charts. Its a way to log my trades and I enjoy sharing.

Its difficult to make money with even the best analysis, thats basic knowledge, you have to be a good trader, you have to be in control, and you have to be able to think for yourself, on your feet.

I hear you and I do appreciate your analysis. I make money too. It's just that a)bitcoin is a very thinly traded market with a handful of interests doing the heavy lifting and b)there are a lot of green traders trying to keep their heads above water. The I think it's probably not so hard for the big whales to keep an eye on the most popular and influential technicians' work from a perspective that they look for every opportunity to better their positions. Making money in markets is a serious business. I do enjoy helping people out but there is that inherent risk of making certain information public which is why I do not share most of my analysis. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

+1 to both of you.

One question for traders, not analysts.

Lets say you open a long position, buying at 1500, with a target at 1600 in 5 days and a stop loss at 1450. After 2 days, price is at 1550. Is it a good thing to move up your stop loss, e.g. at 1500, or you don't touch it until target is reached or the 5 days are done ?

Traders are analysts too

Ideally you'd move your stop to breakeven. In reality Bitcoin is such a choppy market that stops in obvious places will probably get hit unless the trend is super strong in one direction. Just pay attention as most stop-hunting takes place on relatively low volume and use discretion.

Once your target is hit you can move the stop up closer to the price and let it take you out (or use a trailing stop), that way you can take advantage of any additional price rises.

Thanks for this answer. I know traders are analysts, but i see more discussions about analysis, and a good analysis is not enough to earn money. I already lost some long trades due to stop loss placed too high, so i am carefull to set them below the support. I already played with trailing stop on kraken, and i think fine tuning is hard if you don't want to miss big moves.

Stops are good... USUALLY. In Bitcoin, they can be very dangerous. Mostly due to order depth being too shallow. If you set a stop right now, a large enough sell would blow through it and your stop would sell you out at the bottom and you'd be looking in disbelief as the price heads higher without you. This happens in both directions, obviously. It's safer to decide an absolute mental stop, set an alarm on your phone when the price is hit and assess the situation before exiting. When the price spikes against you, you can almost always get a better price than what you see at the time of sell-off.

Stops are also meant to stop you from losing your shirt. The first use-case for a stop is after you have derived your expectancy of a trade, thus since there is little to no volume then the sensible thing to do is place a stop far enough away such that a small spike in volume wouldn't alter your expectancy, ofcourse this moves your TP farther away and essentially forces you to look at a bigger TF. By only using mental stops it just takes 1 trade to ruin your account and statistically your system becomes a martingale strategy.

The second use-case is used to stop you from losing your shirt... so if you really do want to trade in a TF that is high-risk because you think you have found an edge on it, greater than the risk of a volume surge from stop hunters then you would still want to use a hard stop at a place where you don't totally drain your account. (depending on leverage).

To me thin market trading really doesn't make sense where you have to worry about manipulators.. something is either wrong with your expectancy calculations or you are just gambling in that case, 50/50 losing out on slippage/commisions/spreads.

[RyNinDaCleM]

This is totally wrong. No analyst can make money running such a ponzi scheme. The market is so much bigger than that. The whole basis of EW analysis is that the crowd gets emotional sometimes. They make the mistake and then we make the trade, not vice versa.

I make money trading, and I dont need to post anything, but I continue to post my charts. Its a way to log my trades and I enjoy sharing.

Its difficult to make money with even the best analysis, thats basic knowledge, you have to be a good trader, you have to be in control, and you have to be able to think for yourself, on your feet.

I hear you and I do appreciate your analysis. I make money too. It's just that a)bitcoin is a very thinly traded market with a handful of interests doing the heavy lifting and b)there are a lot of green traders trying to keep their heads above water. The I think it's probably not so hard for the big whales to keep an eye on the most popular and influential technicians' work from a perspective that they look for every opportunity to better their positions. Making money in markets is a serious business. I do enjoy helping people out but there is that inherent risk of making certain information public which is why I do not share most of my analysis. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

+1 to both of you.

One question for traders, not analysts.

Lets say you open a long position, buying at 1500, with a target at 1600 in 5 days and a stop loss at 1450. After 2 days, price is at 1550. Is it a good thing to move up your stop loss, e.g. at 1500, or you don't touch it until target is reached or the 5 days are done ?

Traders are analysts too

Ideally you'd move your stop to breakeven. In reality Bitcoin is such a choppy market that stops in obvious places will probably get hit unless the trend is super strong in one direction. Just pay attention as most stop-hunting takes place on relatively low volume and use discretion.

Once your target is hit you can move the stop up closer to the price and let it take you out (or use a trailing stop), that way you can take advantage of any additional price rises.

Thanks for this answer. I know traders are analysts, but i see more discussions about analysis, and a good analysis is not enough to earn money. I already lost some long trades due to stop loss placed too high, so i am carefull to set them below the support. I already played with trailing stop on kraken, and i think fine tuning is hard if you don't want to miss big moves.

Stops are good... USUALLY. In Bitcoin, they can be very dangerous. Mostly due to order depth being too shallow. If you set a stop right now, a large enough sell would blow through it and your stop would sell you out at the bottom and you'd be looking in disbelief as the price heads higher without you. This happens in both directions, obviously. It's safer to decide an absolute mental stop, set an alarm on your phone when the price is hit and assess the situation before exiting. When the price spikes against you, you can almost always get a better price than what you see at the time of sell-off.

Stops are also meant to stop you from losing your shirt. The first use-case for a stop is after you have derived your expectancy of a trade, thus since there is little to no volume then the sensible thing to do is place a stop far enough away such that a small spike in volume wouldn't alter your expectancy, ofcourse this moves your TP farther away and essentially forces you to look at a bigger TF. By only using mental stops it just takes 1 trade to ruin your account and statistically your system becomes a martingale strategy.

The second use-case is used to stop you from losing your shirt... so if you really do want to trade in a TF that is high-risk because you think you have found an edge on it, greater than the risk of a volume surge from stop hunters then you would still want to use a hard stop at a place where you don't totally drain your account. (depending on leverage).

To me thin market trading really doesn't make sense where you have to worry about manipulators.. something is either wrong with your expectancy calculations or you are just gambling in that case, 50/50 losing out on slippage/commisions/spreads.

I agree! I'm not arguing the idea of stops, just that they can be dangerous in Bitcoin. I'm talking about a stop-loss that protects against the market going against you from the start. Since orders are executed linearly, your stop is triggered but not executed until the order that triggered it is completed. If this happens to be a 10k dump, then you are selling at $225 on BFX. Hardly the best price. Say it's a 25k dump (I know these aren't likely anymore, but it is possible) you are now selling at $50 (or with liquidations, maybe lower). My point is, manipulation or not, if the price moves too far too fast, it will come back to a better price than where you would otherwise get executed, which in my mind, is better for capital preservation than a traditional stop. This also means you must be able to access the trade in a timely fashion and if you can't, then the best thing is definitely a regular stop order. Personally, I don't use them often if ever. I plan my trade and trade my plan... Decide my TP and set my limits around there. Decide my S/L price and set an alarm before it gets there. I also use an alarm to notify me when the price moves in my favor so I can check the situation more frequently as it nears my TP level. I will not hesitate to take profit early if the conditions call for it.

[sidhujag]

This is totally wrong. No analyst can make money running such a ponzi scheme. The market is so much bigger than that. The whole basis of EW analysis is that the crowd gets emotional sometimes. They make the mistake and then we make the trade, not vice versa.

I make money trading, and I dont need to post anything, but I continue to post my charts. Its a way to log my trades and I enjoy sharing.

Its difficult to make money with even the best analysis, thats basic knowledge, you have to be a good trader, you have to be in control, and you have to be able to think for yourself, on your feet.

I hear you and I do appreciate your analysis. I make money too. It's just that a)bitcoin is a very thinly traded market with a handful of interests doing the heavy lifting and b)there are a lot of green traders trying to keep their heads above water. The I think it's probably not so hard for the big whales to keep an eye on the most popular and influential technicians' work from a perspective that they look for every opportunity to better their positions. Making money in markets is a serious business. I do enjoy helping people out but there is that inherent risk of making certain information public which is why I do not share most of my analysis. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

+1 to both of you.

One question for traders, not analysts.

Lets say you open a long position, buying at 1500, with a target at 1600 in 5 days and a stop loss at 1450. After 2 days, price is at 1550. Is it a good thing to move up your stop loss, e.g. at 1500, or you don't touch it until target is reached or the 5 days are done ?

Traders are analysts too

Ideally you'd move your stop to breakeven. In reality Bitcoin is such a choppy market that stops in obvious places will probably get hit unless the trend is super strong in one direction. Just pay attention as most stop-hunting takes place on relatively low volume and use discretion.

Once your target is hit you can move the stop up closer to the price and let it take you out (or use a trailing stop), that way you can take advantage of any additional price rises.

Thanks for this answer. I know traders are analysts, but i see more discussions about analysis, and a good analysis is not enough to earn money. I already lost some long trades due to stop loss placed too high, so i am carefull to set them below the support. I already played with trailing stop on kraken, and i think fine tuning is hard if you don't want to miss big moves.

Stops are good... USUALLY. In Bitcoin, they can be very dangerous. Mostly due to order depth being too shallow. If you set a stop right now, a large enough sell would blow through it and your stop would sell you out at the bottom and you'd be looking in disbelief as the price heads higher without you. This happens in both directions, obviously. It's safer to decide an absolute mental stop, set an alarm on your phone when the price is hit and assess the situation before exiting. When the price spikes against you, you can almost always get a better price than what you see at the time of sell-off.

Stops are also meant to stop you from losing your shirt. The first use-case for a stop is after you have derived your expectancy of a trade, thus since there is little to no volume then the sensible thing to do is place a stop far enough away such that a small spike in volume wouldn't alter your expectancy, ofcourse this moves your TP farther away and essentially forces you to look at a bigger TF. By only using mental stops it just takes 1 trade to ruin your account and statistically your system becomes a martingale strategy.

The second use-case is used to stop you from losing your shirt... so if you really do want to trade in a TF that is high-risk because you think you have found an edge on it, greater than the risk of a volume surge from stop hunters then you would still want to use a hard stop at a place where you don't totally drain your account. (depending on leverage).

To me thin market trading really doesn't make sense where you have to worry about manipulators.. something is either wrong with your expectancy calculations or you are just gambling in that case, 50/50 losing out on slippage/commisions/spreads.

I agree! I'm not arguing the idea of stops, just that they can be dangerous in Bitcoin. I'm talking about a stop-loss that protects against the market going against you from the start. Since orders are executed linearly, your stop is triggered but not executed until the order that triggered it is completed. If this happens to be a 10k dump, then you are selling at $225 on BFX. Hardly the best price. Say it's a 25k dump (I know these aren't likely anymore, but it is possible) you are now selling at $50 (or with liquidations, maybe lower). My point is, manipulation or not, if the price moves too far too fast, it will come back to a better price than where you would otherwise get executed, which in my mind, is better for capital preservation than a traditional stop. This also means you must be able to access the trade in a timely fashion and if you can't, then the best thing is definitely a regular stop order. Personally, I don't use them often if ever. I plan my trade and trade my plan... Decide my TP and set my limits around there. Decide my S/L price and set an alarm before it gets there. I also use an alarm to notify me when the price moves in my favor so I can check the situation more frequently as it nears my TP level. I will not hesitate to take profit early if the conditions call for it.

Doesmt your broker automatically force a margin call stop once your available margin falls below operating margin? In that case wouldn't the 25k dump to $50 pretty much wipe out any position even with slight leverage?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I'm going to follow this thread with increased interest now, I really feel we are coming to the end of the long bear market.
I'm interested to see if this reflects in upcoming EW analysis.
Especially interested to see what chessnut has to say in the near future.

Thanks guys.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

2nd time in 2 days you've trolled the 2 open EW-based threads here. If you dislike it so much and it's so utterly useless why are you even watching them ?

I would like to point out that complaining about DanV's analysis is hardly the sign of an uber-bull / EW hater. Plenty of bears (and EW lovers) do so as well

To his (DanV's) credit, he has been on the "prolonged bear market" train for a long time, but his targets and counts tend to be quite off, at least that's the impression I got over the last year or so.

I have found his forecasts incredibly useful. Proper TA traders wouldn't fault him for his off the mark targets because, they are probabilities - just to give a sense of direction!

That line of argument --his targets are off-- is tired TBH. Are there analysts who forecast price action right down to the mark? name me one

Last time , he said we'd go down  to around $210 then back up to a higher price. Now how was that off the mark???

Also, i wonder how many actually bother to sit through his hangouts? He always adds caveats

 

I have been following DanV analysis with interest. I would have no problem trading off a dip to $100 for true completion of an eight wave EW cycle.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Noob question: Can the first wave of a regular corrective triangle be longer than the previous wave, or would that be invalid in terms of EW? I ask because if it is possible, it would allow for the potential green triangle count below, meaning break up instead of down (which my gut tells me is neither likely nor valid, but I feel it's good to map out all alternatives).



Also, would you consider the white count to be plausible? If not, could you give your take on the current situation? My main count(s) tell me more down, but I noticed you recently bought in the trading sim so you must have good reason for it

[fortif78]

Noob question: Can the first wave of a regular corrective triangle be longer than the previous wave, or would that be invalid in terms of EW? I ask because if it is possible, it would allow for the potential green triangle count below, meaning break up instead of down (which my gut tells me is neither likely nor valid, but I feel it's good to map out all alternatives).

It's a lot easier and faster to open google, or a textbook, and learn for yourself. 

[JustAnotherSheep]

It's a lot easier and faster to open google, or a textbook, and learn for yourself.  

I tried searching for it but found nothing. I've read the rules and guidelines and as far as I remember there is no mention of what I'm asking. I could spend hours going through EW books just to see if there is something on this specific subject, but why when there exists a dedicated EW thread where I can ask the pro's directly and in addition get feedback/criticism on my counts (not to mention that others might also benefit from the answer)?

However, I apologize if my questions are unwanted, and if chessnut tells me to I will stop posting.

[Fabrizio89]

I don't know how to answer your question, the guy above surely doesn't know either and he's just being a bitch about it. I'm pretty sure someone will help you.

[fortif78]

I don't know how to answer your question, the guy above surely doesn't know either and he's just being a bitch about it. I'm pretty sure someone will help you.

LOL. Being a bitch by suggesting that someone take the time to actually learn something instead of asking for spoon feeding on a forum.
Relax homie.

[Afrikoin]

Noob question: Can the first wave of a regular corrective triangle be longer than the previous wave, or would that be invalid in terms of EW? I ask because if it is possible, it would allow for the potential green triangle count below, meaning break up instead of down (which my gut tells me is neither likely nor valid, but I feel it's good to map out all alternatives).

This is what i see now on the12 H. Not EW,but you can see why the price is holding steady here and potentially the next target