Critical Levels - EW analysis

[RyNinDaCleM]

It's a lot easier and faster to open google, or a textbook, and learn for yourself.  

I tried searching for it but found nothing. I've read the rules and guidelines and as far as I remember there is no mention of what I'm asking. I could spend hours going through EW books just to see if there is something on this specific subject, but why when there exists a dedicated EW thread where I can ask the pro's directly and in addition get feedback/criticism on my counts (not to mention that others might also benefit from the answer)?

However, I apologize if my questions are unwanted, and if chessnut tells me to I will stop posting.

Yes! It's called a running triangle and the triangle b makes a new price extreme beyond the origin of a.

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[JustAnotherSheep]

It's a lot easier and faster to open google, or a textbook, and learn for yourself.  

I tried searching for it but found nothing. I've read the rules and guidelines and as far as I remember there is no mention of what I'm asking. I could spend hours going through EW books just to see if there is something on this specific subject, but why when there exists a dedicated EW thread where I can ask the pro's directly and in addition get feedback/criticism on my counts (not to mention that others might also benefit from the answer)?

However, I apologize if my questions are unwanted, and if chessnut tells me to I will stop posting.

Yes! It's called a running triangle and the triangle b makes a new price extreme beyond the origin of a.

I see, thanks. Seems like this is may have been what happened, but with triangle start earlier than I thought. Revised white count:



The triangle and divergence suggest termination soon (though the div may yet be overcome), so I'm assuming this is (c) and not a larger impulse.

[RyNinDaCleM]

It's a lot easier and faster to open google, or a textbook, and learn for yourself.  

I tried searching for it but found nothing. I've read the rules and guidelines and as far as I remember there is no mention of what I'm asking. I could spend hours going through EW books just to see if there is something on this specific subject, but why when there exists a dedicated EW thread where I can ask the pro's directly and in addition get feedback/criticism on my counts (not to mention that others might also benefit from the answer)?

However, I apologize if my questions are unwanted, and if chessnut tells me to I will stop posting.

Yes! It's called a running triangle and the triangle b makes a new price extreme beyond the origin of a.

I see, thanks. Seems like this is may have been what happened, but with triangle start earlier than I thought. Revised white count:



The triangle and divergence suggest termination soon (though the div may yet be overcome), so I'm assuming this is (c) and not a larger impulse.

There is room for a 5th wave down, but not completely necessary.

[chessnut]

This is a nice count imo. Valid and fits in quite nicely.

Having said that, the big money has moved for the time being and trading conditions are BAD. Accuracy will be less and whipsaws be be more.

This could still be the count playing out.

[fortif78]

This is a nice count imo. Valid and fits in quite nicely.

Having said that, the big money has moved for the time being and trading conditions are BAD. Accuracy will be less and whipsaws be be more.

This could still be the count playing out.

In the case of an expanding triangle, shouldn't one be able to count a-b-c-d-e as 3-3-3-3-3 ?
I have a hard time counting the move to ~1550 CNY as a 3 waver - looks more like 5 to me.

[chessnut]

In the case of an expanding triangle, shouldn't one be able to count a-b-c-d-e as 3-3-3-3-3 ?
I have a hard time counting the move to ~1550 CNY as a 3 waver - looks more like 5 to me.

Yeah, an expanding triangle is 3-3-3-3-3. the wave to 1550 could be either. not really important as it isnt exactly obvious and the smaller count gives way to the larger count. If it is a fiver it doesnt change the larger count being a corrective in a down trend.

[JustAnotherSheep]

In the case of an expanding triangle, shouldn't one be able to count a-b-c-d-e as 3-3-3-3-3 ?
I have a hard time counting the move to ~1550 CNY as a 3 waver - looks more like 5 to me.

Imo it looks much better as 3 waves, though chessnut also mentioned earlier he thought it was 5, so what do I know. Perhaps bit clearer form on OKUSD:



Blowout v of (a) ((following underextended iii)) and severely overextended iii of (c) followed by a weak and truncated v.

The ratio between (a) and (c) pictured is also almost exactly 1:1, i.e. typical corrective proportion.

[grahvity]

http://thepatternsite.com/WolfeWaveBear.html

[Wandererfromthenorth]

I think we are in for a very big move soon.

The next moves should determine the trend of the next few weeks/months IMHO.

[futureofbitcoin]

Question is, are we moving up or down?

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Question is, are we moving up or down?

Down if price breaks support trend line (see above), up if it breaks the resistance trend line, only if a definite move with decent volume happens tho, otherwise might be sideways again.



I think down is a lot more probable but no bias.



Just my humble analysis.

[Morecoin Freeman]

I hope for down. Have a lot of fiat ready in the coming months.

[Tzupy]

This dump triggered a bearish flip of 12h and 1d PSAR, IMO similar to the flip of the 16th July 2014.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Pennants broken to the downside on all exchanges.

[Morecoin Freeman]

I put in a short at ~235. I hope all goes well.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

I hope for down. Have a lot of fiat ready in the coming months.

just as me

[JustAnotherSheep]

Personally I'd be careful with shorts here. While I agree us breaking several major trendlines doesn't look good, from an EW point of view it seems like a reversal of some degree may be due after another small wave down (which could truncate, or hit ~$230 @ OKCoin).

That or we have begun III and I'm about to get sheared

[Afrikoin]

Personally I'd be careful with shorts here. While I agree us breaking several major trendlines doesn't look good, from an EW point of view it seems like a reversal of some degree may be due after another small wave down (which could truncate, or hit ~$230 @ OKCoin).

That or we have begun III and I'm about to get sheared

also watching $226.

[spud21]

Personally I'd be careful with shorts here. While I agree us breaking several major trendlines doesn't look good, from an EW point of view it seems like a reversal of some degree may be due after another small wave down (which could truncate, or hit ~$230 @ OKCoin).

That or we have begun III and I'm about to get sheared

So you think it could go down a bit more, then return to exactly the same price it has been at for most of this week?

[JustAnotherSheep]

So you think it could go down a bit more, then return to exactly the same price it has been at for most of this week?

Well I think (or hope heh) it will more likely be followed by a large (C)-wave up to $260-level that will conclude the entire rise/correction from $215. In other words, my primary local count atm is that the aforementioned potential next wave down should terminate v of (c) of E (in case of chess' expanding triangle) of (B), after which we should see the second, impulsive half of the larger correction up. However, this is but the personal opinion of a sheep, and there are many other ways it could develop if we even bounce at all.

I guess (think?) it is also possible the bounce will be corrective to a major trend down, in that case probably 4 of (1) of III or something, which would likely retrace to $235-$238 i.e. same price level we've been at for the last week as you mention, after which we get more down. I don't find this scenario very plausible (and perhaps not even valid), and my gut tells me the larger rise isn't over yet, but the question of which alternative will play out doesn't matter too much right now as it can be better determined later once the bounce actually occurs by looking at its subwave structure. What I am fairly certain of at this point though is that there should be a bounce soon and that it could potentially be very strong, hence my warning about shorting here.

A rough illustration, with my preferred alternative in white/green and a possible count for Wave III scenario in red:




Note that the pic is not so detailed and subwave labels, especially around (a) - (b), are approximate and may be off. The count is rather messy as I'm struggling with confidently identifying the exact wave form and position at places, which admittedly also increases the possibility that I'm completely wrong lol, so take it as you will.