Critical Levels - EW analysis

[podyx]

looks like V ain't working out and my 1.5btc will be margin called 

Depends where is your margin call. Might bounce around soon. But after that I expect it to go further down, not immediately but soon.

This doesn't look bullish to me:

Still expect it to go futher down after bounce??

[seleme]

Based on that ABCD, I do. But hopefully bounce first, I'm longing at these levels. Without bounce it won't be good

[podyx]

Based on that ABCD, I do. But hopefully bounce first, I'm longing at these levels. Without bounce it won't be good

How deep do you think we will go?
390?

Btw, it looked similar 21st of may 2014 and in that case we just kept going
And how high would you think we would bounce?

[Afrikoin]

Based on that ABCD, I do. But hopefully bounce first, I'm longing at these levels. Without bounce it won't be good

How deep do you think we will go?
390?

Btw, it looked similar 21st of may 2014 and in that case we just kept going
And how high would you think we would bounce?

I am going with $ 393 on this one, a bounce then up again with more force.

[podyx]

Based on that ABCD, I do. But hopefully bounce first, I'm longing at these levels. Without bounce it won't be good

How deep do you think we will go?
390?

Btw, it looked similar 21st of may 2014 and in that case we just kept going
And how high would you think we would bounce?

I am going with $ 393 on this one, a bounce then up again with more force.

How big of a bounce?

[Raystonn]

Unfortunately china feels like the correction is not over... while the west is quite resolved. I hope those who bought here managed their risk well and can deal with some volatility. We should bottom out above 2580, probably substantially above 2580.

2580 is 50% fib retrace. Why would you doubt we make it that far? Because 38-50 is normal? We kinda overshot by a lot too though.

wave iv bottoms within the wave iv of one lower degree. 2580 is the lowest. the west has brutally tested this level. good chance we just bottomed out. obviously volatile so gotta take care down here.

2440 on Huobi.  2412 on OKCoin.  386 on Bitstamp.

[podyx]

What now??

[Afrikoin]

Based on that ABCD, I do. But hopefully bounce first, I'm longing at these levels. Without bounce it won't be good

How deep do you think we will go?
390?

Btw, it looked similar 21st of may 2014 and in that case we just kept going
And how high would you think we would bounce?

I am going with $ 393 on this one, a bounce then up again with more force.

How big of a bounce?

A bounce to the top. 490+

[Alonzo Ewing]

Podyx,

A word of advice.  Develop your own system so you have confidence in your own decisions.  It's okay to see what others are saying, and it's okay to learn from them so that you can modify your own system, but in the end, unless you have your own system, the market will chew you up.  Take it from someone with nearly two decades of experience trading.

[seleme]

Podyx,

A word of advice.  Develop your own system so you have confidence in your own decisions.  It's okay to see what others are saying, and it's okay to learn from them so that you can modify your own system, but in the end, unless you have your own system, the market will chew you up.  Take it from someone with nearly two decades of experience trading.

Agree. I read lot of opinions but it rarely went good when listening to others and basing trades on that.

[watuba]

I'll try posting charts for the first time.  Which one of these is right(if either) and why?

[seleme]

As long as we make that target of yours without further LLs, they're both fine as far as I am concerned. 

[watuba]

I'm super new though, so just trying to learn.  I wouldn't take my charts too seriously yet 

[seleme]

I'm super new though, so just trying to learn.  I wouldn't take my charts too seriously yet 

Lot of EWers see it like that.

[Afrikoin]

looks like the base of a triangle forming.

[chessnut]

I'll try posting charts for the first time.  Which one of these is right(if either) and why?

Hi watuba,

We have had the primary already, which makes the wave to 2900 wave III. you can see this back in the thread. I believe this is still wave iv. I was expecting it to bottom in wave (iv) territory because that guideline has very seldom fails me. wave iv hasnt ntered into the territory of wave i, so technically it is still valid.

[chessnut]

So we had a nasty breakdown last night, some people got burned including myself. The rule that wave iv bottoms in the vicinity of wave (iv) rarely fails me, but as long as we do not pass into the territory of wave ii then we can still expect a wave v.

Since the breakdown, the count has become clearer. we have a much better risk reward. We are not fighting momentum indicators. Playing this simple breakout is a string signal long here.

I noted before that wave iv would be deep because wave ii was so shallow. It came very very true.

... always remember, buy when theres blood in the streets, even when it is your own. we are still targeting 3000 yuan, and we have a chance to buy at 2500 with stop at 2400.


 

looks like the base of a triangle forming.

well spotted.

[ssmc2]

What are your thoughts on this analysis chessnut?

https://www.tradingview.com/v/rqdB0dUf/

And thanks for what you do!

[BTCtrader71]

Chessnut,

I consider myself a hodler/long term bull and more a believer in fundamental analysis than TA, but I wanted to say I am enjoying this thread and your convo with the other EWers very much. To me TA is like playing poker (which I don't think I'd be good at!) and following this thread is like watching a good (afaict) poker player think out loud in real time. I hope you keep it up! Who knows, I might even learn something ...

[watuba]

Hi watuba,

We have had the primary already, which makes the wave to 2900 wave III. you can see this back in the thread. I believe this is still wave iv. I was expecting it to bottom in wave (iv) territory because that guideline has very seldom fails me. wave iv hasnt ntered into the territory of wave i, so technically it is still valid.

Gotcha, now I see how the first wave was just before the timeline of my charts.