Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

So we had a nasty breakdown last night, some people got burned including myself. The rule that wave iv bottoms in the vicinity of wave (iv) rarely fails me, but as long as we do not pass into the territory of wave ii then we can still expect a wave v.

Since the breakdown, the count has become clearer. we have a much better risk reward. We are not fighting momentum indicators. Playing this simple breakout is a strong signal long here.

I noted before that wave iv would be deep because wave ii was so shallow. It came very very true.

... always remember, buy when theres blood in the streets, even when it is your own. we are still targeting 3000 yuan, and we have a chance to buy at 2500 with stop at 2400.


 

looks like the base of a triangle forming.

well spotted.

EDIT - reposting this count on new page as it is very significant at the moment.

[chessnut]

Chessnut,

I consider myself a hodler/long term bull and more a believer in fundamental analysis than TA, but I wanted to say I am enjoying this thread and your convo with the other EWers very much. To me TA is like playing poker (which I don't think I'd be good at!) and following this thread is like watching a good (afaict) poker player think out loud in real time. I hope you keep it up! Who knows, I might even learn something ...

What are your thoughts on this analysis chessnut?

https://www.tradingview.com/v/rqdB0dUf/

And thanks for what you do!

thanks guys its great to know after one bummer trade people dont give up on me. Its a lot of pressure to run this thread, but I feel like Im doing a good job. last night for the first time in a while I got a good nights sleep after closing out at a loss. maybe thats just what I needed. (made a comment on TV, ssmc2)

[carretero]

So we had a nasty breakdown last night, some people got burned including myself. The rule that wave iv bottoms in the vicinity of wave (iv) rarely fails me, but as long as we do not pass into the territory of wave ii then we can still expect a wave v.

Since the breakdown, the count has become clearer. we have a much better risk reward. We are not fighting momentum indicators. Playing this simple breakout is a string signal long here.

I noted before that wave iv would be deep because wave ii was so shallow. It came very very true.

... always remember, buy when theres blood in the streets, even when it is your own. we are still targeting 3000 yuan, and we have a chance to buy at 2500 with stop at 2400.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bd8Q6s3u/
 

looks like the base of a triangle forming.

well spotted.

EDIT - reposting this count on new page as it is very significant at the moment.

Very nice work.

Can you post a link to your tradingview chart, so we can see all the lines en press play to load new bars, etc. Or is it too much to ask?

[chessnut]

Very nice work.

Can you post a link to your tradingview chart, so we can see all the lines en press play to load new bars, etc. Or is it too much to ask?

I would have to publish this chart on TV to do that but I only publish my longer term views because I do so much scalping that the more important counts would get all get lost.

[chessnut]

Podyx,

A word of advice.  Develop your own system so you have confidence in your own decisions.  It's okay to see what others are saying, and it's okay to learn from them so that you can modify your own system, but in the end, unless you have your own system, the market will chew you up.  Take it from someone with nearly two decades of experience trading.

This is very true. I can do my best to guide good money making decisions but if you are not trying to make your own it is a fatal weakness. (not directed at podyx)

Ultimately I am just hoping to share a system with you that really works so that you can learn or be inspired to do it yourself.

[carretero]

Which wave are we in right now? 

[chessnut]

Which wave are we in right now? 

wave v, meaning going long at 3000 is absolutely fatal. lots of room to move still. good risk reward to go long even now with stoploss at  2460.

[podyx]

Which wave are we in right now? 

wave v, meaning going long at 3000 is absolutely fatal. lots of room to move still. good risk reward to go long even now with stoploss at  2460.

How far do you reckon we'll fall after 3000? (if we hit it that is)

Not sub 400 again right?

[chessnut]

Which wave are we in right now?  

wave v, meaning going long at 3000 is absolutely fatal. lots of room to move still. good risk reward to go long even now with stoploss at  2460.

How far do you reckon we'll fall after 3000? (if we hit it that is)

Not sub 400 again right?

Really anything is possible after that unfortunately. My dominant count is that we have bottomed at 270, but I am very aware that we might still revisit 270 gain. Everyone should be prepared for this.

What is wise to do is watch and wait. If we correct in wave II fashion, that will be produce a VERY good signal to go long. otherwise, we may see early impulsive movement down, in which case we can look to short.

[podyx]

Which wave are we in right now?  

wave v, meaning going long at 3000 is absolutely fatal. lots of room to move still. good risk reward to go long even now with stoploss at  2460.

How far do you reckon we'll fall after 3000? (if we hit it that is)

Not sub 400 again right?

Really anything is possible after that unfortunately. My dominant count is that we have bottomed at 270, but I am very aware that we might still revisit 270 gain. Everyone should be prepared for this.

What is wise to do is watch and wait. If we correct in wave II fashion, that will be produce a VERY good signal to go long. otherwise, we may see early impulsive movement down, in which case we can look to short.

Holy shit... What would a wave II fashion mean?

I personally think we are entering bubble territory. What's your thoughts on that?

[Odalv]

Which wave are we in right now?  

wave v, meaning going long at 3000 is absolutely fatal. lots of room to move still. good risk reward to go long even now with stoploss at  2460.

How far do you reckon we'll fall after 3000? (if we hit it that is)

Not sub 400 again right?

Really anything is possible after that unfortunately. My dominant count is that we have bottomed at 270, but I am very aware that we might still revisit 270 gain. Everyone should be prepared for this.

What is wise to do is watch and wait. If we correct in wave II fashion, that will be produce a VERY good signal to go long. otherwise, we may see early impulsive movement down, in which case we can look to short.

sub $300(29x) is illusion same as single digits.

[chessnut]

Holy shit... What would a wave II fashion mean?

wave II fashion means we have just seen the primary wave of the next bubble and we will correct in a weak ABC pattern. Its not something we should worry about too much unless we are trading high leverage on the longer term scale (anyone?) we should have good signals all along the way from here to see what is happening. a LOT of strong evidence has revealed its self recently.

[chessnut]

sub $300(29x) is illusion same as single digits.

its not an illusion it has already happened. Im going out on a limb to say we have bottomed because some good EW analysts disagree with me, so I have to track all the valid counts for protection.

[WiiD]

my personal Eliot Waves analysis, lol




expect price to fall to 380-385 dollar

[Afrikoin]

Which wave are we in right now?  

wave v, meaning going long at 3000 is absolutely fatal. lots of room to move still. good risk reward to go long even now with stoploss at  2460.

How far do you reckon we'll fall after 3000? (if we hit it that is)

Not sub 400 again right?

Really anything is possible after that unfortunately. My dominant count is that we have bottomed at 270, but I am very aware that we might still revisit 270 gain. Everyone should be prepared for this.

What is wise to do is watch and wait. If we correct in wave II fashion, that will be produce a VERY good signal to go long. otherwise, we may see early impulsive movement down, in which case we can look to short.

So the search for wave II or IV is similar to the one we had before this uptrend ie the debate on the REAL bottom. Which we're still in since a break-down would retest the lows of $ 275 or lower.

Seems Elliot Wave is a fantastic tool for trading huge moves with large profit payoffs. Which is my style right now.

[podyx]

my personal Eliot Waves analysis, lol




expect price to fall to 380-385 dollar

Looks like it's going this way, I can't see it hit sub 400 right now though

[Afrikoin]

my personal Eliot Waves analysis, lol




expect price to fall to 380-385 dollar

Looks like it's going this way, I can't see it hit sub 400 right now though

No. this will likely break up. Disclaimer: Anything could happen

[WiiD]

my personal Eliot Waves analysis, lol




expect price to fall to 380-385 dollar

Looks like it's going this way, I can't see it hit sub 400 right now though

Lol my whole post and picture was a joke, can't believe it is really going this way hahaha

Ist das oben rechts deine Adresse?  
Erlauben die in der JVA traden?

Ich bin CIA-Spezial-Agent und in der angegebenen JVA tätig. Bitte verrate mich nicht.

[SkyValeey]

Below 2400... Good that I sold when I saw 2480-2440 slowly falling at okcoin.

I can't see serious support at chart... 22XX is?

If yes, chart will be maybe like head and shoulders with rocket-head  

[watuba]

what are you thinking now chessnut?