Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Hfertig]

Which wave are we in right now?  

wave v, meaning going long at 3000 is absolutely fatal. lots of room to move still. good risk reward to go long even now with stoploss at  2460.

How far do you reckon we'll fall after 3000? (if we hit it that is)

Not sub 400 again right?

Really anything is possible after that unfortunately. My dominant count is that we have bottomed at 270, but I am very aware that we might still revisit 270 gain. Everyone should be prepared for this.

What is wise to do is watch and wait. If we correct in wave II fashion, that will be produce a VERY good signal to go long. otherwise, we may see early impulsive movement down, in which case we can look to short.

sub $300(29x) is illusion same as single digits.

Single digits is more likely than quadrouple digits.

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[chessnut]

what are you thinking now chessnut?

This price behaviour probably means that the count of the impulsive (C) or (I) to forecasted 3000 yuan is complete, meaning wave v must have already occurred. this could be explained if we count iii as a blow out fifth, and i-i (i)-(ii) as i-ii-iii. Ill post a chart in an our or so (busy atm)

Now begins the count and validation of the two counts, greater wave C to test $270, or corrective to bottom out soon and proceed to new ATH.

We have to stand back and wait for the market to reveal more. I just dont see enough right now.

[chessnut]

Here is a chart that I've colour coded to illustrate the cross roads we are at. A few things are possible here which make it really difficult to decisively trade. Im not going to consider trading anything until we have either broken through 2540 or 2286, and then I would like more price action to confirm counts. break under 2000 is obviously confirmation of greater wave V.

I have illustrated that the impulsive wave (C or I) we have been tracking might be complete. This is really exciting because it means that if we see a really large ABC here, the an impulsive wave III may follow as the beginning of the next bubble. It also means that if we see impulsive action downwards it could be the beginning of wave V. It is not certain the impulsive is over, wave v might come, but it is looking less and less likely.

[watuba]

Here is a chart that I've colour coded to illustrate the cross roads we are at. A few things are possible here which make it really difficult to decisively trade. Im not going to consider trading anything until we have either broken through 2540 or 2286, and then I would like more price action to confirm counts. break under 2000 is obviously confirmation of greater wave V.

I have illustrated that the impulsive wave (C or I) we have been tracking might be complete. This is really exciting because it means that if we see a really large ABC here, the an impulsive wave III may follow as the beginning of the next bubble. It also means that if we see impulsive action downwards it could be the beginning of wave V. It is not certain the impulsive is over, wave v might come, but it is looking less and less likely.

So for me, this seems like now is a good time to buy, since in all scenarios we run up to at least 2600+.  It's hard to be assertive and buy here though because of the volatility.

[chessnut]

So for me, this seems like now is a good time to buy, since in all scenarios we run up to at least 2600+.  It's hard to be assertive and buy here though because of the volatility.

I cant be sure that the move down is done on the lower time frames so I would wait for more confirmation to buy. its not a good idea to trade corrective waves. I think its not worth the risk to trade now, we need good risk/reward and clear levels.

[watuba]

So for me, this seems like now is a good time to buy, since in all scenarios we run up to at least 2600+.  It's hard to be assertive and buy here though because of the volatility.

I cant be sure that the move down is done on the lower time frames so I would wait for more confirmation to buy. its not a good idea to trade corrective waves. I think its not worth the risk to trade now, we need good risk/reward and clear levels.

I see.  It's just so hard to look at this chart and see how it's going to dip much more before a decent sized correction(at least).  But I'm probably not passing on enough risky spots I should be passing up at this point in my trading career.

[chessnut]

I see.  It's just so hard to look at this chart and see how it's going to dip much more before a decent sized correction(at least).  But I'm probably not passing on enough risky spots I should be passing up at this point in my trading career.

I agree, but I have made two losing trades in a row despite my expectations. I need to see evidence and behaviour that I expect before I touch this market again. Also its really no good to trade without decisive profit targets.

[watuba]

I agree, but I have made two losing trades in a row despite my expectations. I need to see evidence and behaviour that I expect before I touch this market again. Also its really no good to trade without decisive profit targets.

Gotcha, k, learned a lot from this

[RoadTrain]

chessnut, I heard you are trading on OKCoin, right? Would you recommend it over Huobi?

[chessnut]

after two losing trades I am timid but this count has surprising revealed its self to me and happily fits a valid and plausible corrective count, I have the confidence to trade it myself. This is NOT impulsive to the downside, this is not how wave V should start. with the hourly macd turning up, this could be the bottom we are looking for. the Risk/reward is great  placing stoploss under local lows. please trade with good risk management here this market is obviously volatile.

chessnut, I heard you are trading on OKCoin, right? Would you recommend it over Huobi?

I use Okcoin, I have never tried Huobi but I am certainly enjoying Okcoin a lot more than I enjoyed BFX.

[karol]

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I use Okcoin, I have never tried Huobi but I am certainly enjoying Okcoin a lot more than I enjoyed BFX.
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Could You please tell more about why You enjoy more okcoin than bfx? Is Laverage avaliable on okcoin and if how many X?

[chessnut]

I use Okcoin, I have never tried Huobi but I am certainly enjoying Okcoin a lot more than I enjoyed BFX.

Could You please tell more about why You enjoy more okcoin than bfx? Is Laverage avaliable on okcoin and if how many X?

Hi karol,

I enjoy trading at Okcoin because liquidity is much better than BFX. also, because of liquidity, the charts are much more accurate and behave nicely to read and trade. I used to trade according to chinese chart on BFX, it simply didnt work in scalping. OKcoin offers 10x and 20x leverage with cross margin and fixed margin mode, meaning you dont have to risk all your capital to large margin call.

[RoadTrain]

Thanks, chessnut. Not to derail the thread, but do you take seriously the accusations that OKCoin might have fake volume? Does it matter anyway?

[chessnut]

Thanks, chessnut. Not to derail the thread, but do you take seriously the accusations that OKCoin might have fake volume? Does it matter anyway?

Ive never had any problems because of possible fake volume, I dont know if thats true. the volumes at critical turning points tend to behave genuinely.

[zby]

Hi karol,

I enjoy trading at Okcoin because liquidity is much better than BFX. also, because of liquidity, the charts are much more accurate and behave nicely to read and trade. I used to trade according to chinese chart on BFX, it simply didnt work in scalping. OKcoin offers 10x and 20x leverage with cross margin and fixed margin mode, meaning you dont have to risk all your capital to large margin call.

I've heard the futures are not fully hedged with bitcoins. This is playing with fire - the exchange can go bankrupt if there is a large move up.

I cannot find any official info on the their hedging algorithm - but it looks like it is fractional because the futures volumes are order of magnitude higher than BTC volumes on that exchange.

[karol]

I use Okcoin, I have never tried Huobi but I am certainly enjoying Okcoin a lot more than I enjoyed BFX.

Could You please tell more about why You enjoy more okcoin than bfx? Is Laverage avaliable on okcoin and if how many X?

Hi karol,

I enjoy trading at Okcoin because liquidity is much better than BFX. also, because of liquidity, the charts are much more accurate and behave nicely to read and trade. I used to trade according to chinese chart on BFX, it simply didnt work in scalping. OKcoin offers 10x and 20x leverage with cross margin and fixed margin mode, meaning you dont have to risk all your capital to large margin call.

I find out that this laverage is more future option than it is on bfx, You open contracts weekly, monthly etc and it will be closed automaticy on Friday yes? So i can't open Today and close it with profit tomorrow as it is on bfx?

[chessnut]

I find out that this laverage is more future option than it is on bfx, You open contracts weekly, monthly etc and it will be closed automaticy on Friday yes? So i can't open Today and close it with profit tomorrow as it is on bfx?

You can open a biweekly, monthly and quarterly position without having to worry about closing out on a friday. any time you open a monthly position it will only be automatically closed on friday one month from that time. trading futures contracts versus real bitcoin has no real advantages or imo no disadvantages.

[Globb0]

Thanks for these insights. I too am furiously trying to learn as much as I can.

I appreciate the generousity of people much more experienced being prepared to share.

I do feel like I have learned an incredible amount over about the last year.


Globb

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[chessnut]

Thanks for these insights. I too am furiously trying to learn as much as I can.

I appreciate the generousity of people much more experienced being prepared to share.

I do feel like I have learned an incredible amount over about the last year.


Globb

xx

Thanks for your appreciation. Its very stressful running a thread like this because even though I am a net winner with my trades, it hurts me bad to know some people might lose when I lose. So I appreciate your comments. I can only hope I provide the best means of practically learning good trading practise.

[madmat]

Thanks for these insights. I too am furiously trying to learn as much as I can.

I appreciate the generousity of people much more experienced being prepared to share.

I do feel like I have learned an incredible amount over about the last year.


Globb

xx

Thanks for your appreciation. Its very stressful running a thread like this because even though I am a net winner with my trades, it hurts me bad to know some people might lose when I lose. So I appreciate your comments. I can only hope I provide the best means of practically learning good trading practise.

Don't forget that people also lose when you win. Because they don't have stop loss, because they don't understand you, because they trade too late after you post, because, they don't take the profit on time and so on.

For the moment, i am happy with my tradings, i made +25% in 15 days thanks to you. Waiting to sell at 3000 before tipping you.