Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Afrikoin]

Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.

[h3speros]

Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.

short and long are terms to use if you are using leverage

[ask]

Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.

Was that rational or emotional decision?

[Afrikoin]

Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.

Was that rational or emotional decision?

stop losss at $ 382. Rational i'd say

[Afrikoin]

Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.

short and long are terms to use if you are using leverage

not necessarily according to this http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp

[chessnut]

The diverging slide to the downside last night is an incomplete impulsive. This is likely wave C of a larger ABC. When this impulsive terminates it will offer us a buy opportunity.

Now for the first time I will share a count with you that explains where I might have been wrong counting iv. As I said earlier, I prefer the count that the down trend terminated with a truncated V and we will not revisit lows. Therefore we are looking for a primary wave and an abc correction. now we have a large abc correction, more than a 0.618 retrace. but do we have a plausible and valid primary wave? yes! it is very possible that our primary wave was a blow out fifth wave as illustrated. If we hit a bottom here and see impulsive action it could present an epic buy opportunity.

we still need more evidence before we try anything but if this begins to play out how I expect then things could get exciting.

[podyx]

The diverging slide to the downside last night is an incomplete impulsive. This is likely wave C of a larger ABC. When this impulsive terminates it will offer us a buy opportunity.

Now for the first time I will share a count with you that explains where I might have been wrong counting iv. As I said earlier, I prefer the count that the down trend terminated with a truncated V and we will not revisit lows. Therefore we are looking for a primary wave and an abc correction. now we have a large abc correction, more than a 0.618 retrace. but do we have a plausible and valid primary wave? yes! it is very possible that our primary wave was a blow out fifth wave as illustrated. If we hit a bottom here and see impulsive action it could present an epic buy opportunity.

we still need more evidence before we try anything but if this begins to play out how I expect then things could get exciting.

img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/80fReyOt/[/img]

lol, this is what I was thinking just a minute ago

you mean bottom here or bottom at 2160?

[chessnut]

lol, this is what I was thinking just a minute ago

you mean bottom here or bottom at 2160?

the bottom could be a fair bit lower, we should see whenn It happens.

[podyx]

lol, this is what I was thinking just a minute ago

you mean bottom here or bottom at 2160?

the bottom could be a fair bit lower, we should see whenn It happens.

Hmm... I'm really considering enter a 20x leverage position here and put a stop loss at $375

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I really must stop following this thread.

Never seen so much unsuccessful guesswork in my life.

[madmat]

I really must stop following this thread.

Never seen so much unsuccessful guesswork in my life.

Unwatch button is here for you.

[h3speros]

I really must stop following this thread.

Never seen so much unsuccessful guesswork in my life.

simple, GTFO

[windjc]

Chessnut,

I'm a little surprised you dont think we could be in a v of IV of C (of a larger IV wave).  Seems to be the consensus of many.

[chessnut]

Chessnut,

I'm a little surprised you dont think we could be in a v of IV of C (of a larger IV wave).  Seems to be the consensus of many.

I see the possibility for sure but it is not my dominant count. Truncated V is quite a plausible count imo and taking a step back looking at the 1d and 3d charts I dont see how we can easily go lower.

Of coarse I will be looking for confirmations for both counts. Ill change my mind when I see the evidence. It doesn't make a difference to a long bias at this stage.

[chessnut]

This is a breakout. wave iv/II could easily be complete here. we have been hurt going long in the recent weeks but a clear signal and a good risk reward ratio here is not to be sneered at. The price action to the downside is weak and diverging, and we are near critical levels such as hypothetical iv of I, or hypothetical ii of (i). Buying the bottom is always more ballsy but we are still targeting around 2800 yuan at least for wave v, and much higher in case of hypothetical wave III.

[btcney]

This is a breakout. wave iv/II could easily be complete here. we have been hurt going long in the recent weeks but a clear signal and a good risk reward ratio here is not to be sneered at. The price action to the downside is weak and diverging, and we are near critical levels such as hypothetical iv of I, or hypothetical ii of (i). Buying the bottom is always more ballsy but we are still targeting around 2800 yuan at least for wave v, and much higher in case of hypothetical wave III.

Agree, this looks ready to breakout now.

[var53]

Agree, this looks ready to breakout now.

Is that chart predicting the price should peak in about a day and a half?

[chessnut]

A word of warning not to chase the price here. it seems that we have broken out of a triangle. triangles are terminal moves. this means the price could retrace all the way back down to 2440 before further progress.

[podyx]

A word of warning not to chase the price here. it seems that we have broken out of a triangle. triangles are terminal moves. this means the price could retrace all the way back down to 2440 before further progress.

And after retrace to 2440?

[chessnut]

And after retrace to 2440?

I need more price action to say. Cant be sure where a triangle fits in here at the moment.

For sure I am not turning bearish just because of this triangle.