AMHash1: Cost-Effective Mining Contract

[elasticband]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=951731.msg10420334#msg10420334

[thevictimofuktyranny]

If's official, it would cost $5 million to develop a 16nm ASIC Chip for SHA256 algorithm  

From Marco Streng interview (CEO of Genesis Mining):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ROQZZhjY1c

Yearly, coin production value at $225 is $295,650,000

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 10 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $50 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $500 million.

Modifying the formula for lower profits:

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 1 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $10 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $100 million.

Essentially, it is highly unlikely you will see a 16nm SHA256 mining ASIC CHIP on BITCOIN this year, because no manufacturer would expect to generate 34% net sales out of net coin values when BTC price is stably frozen

[jimmothy]

If's official, it would cost $5 million to develop a 16nm ASIC Chip for SHA256 algorithm Shocked

From Marco Streng interview (CEO of Genesis Mining):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ROQZZhjY1c

Yearly, coin production value at $225 is $295,650,000

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 10 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $50 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $500 million.

Modifying the formula for lower profits:

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 1 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $10 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $100 million.

Essentially, it is highly unlikely you will see a 16nm SHA256 mining ASIC CHIP on BITCOIN this year, because no manufacturer would expect to generate 34% net sales out net coin values when BTC price is a stably frozen

Wrong.

KnCMiner raises $15M led by Accel Partners and completes 16nm tape-out with TSMC

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-124

[thevictimofuktyranny]

If's official, it would cost $5 million to develop a 16nm ASIC Chip for SHA256 algorithm Shocked

From Marco Streng interview (CEO of Genesis Mining):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ROQZZhjY1c

Yearly, coin production value at $225 is $295,650,000

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 10 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $50 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $500 million.

Modifying the formula for lower profits:

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 1 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $10 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $100 million.

Essentially, it is highly unlikely you will see a 16nm SHA256 mining ASIC CHIP on BITCOIN this year, because no manufacturer would expect to generate 34% net sales out net coin values when BTC price is a stably frozen

Wrong.

KnCMiner raises $15M led by Accel Partners and completes 16nm tape-out with TSMC

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-124

Then the units will be very expensive to recover their $5 million or KCNminer will go bankrupt this year. I know they must have made net losses on their Scrypt Titans

[flame1012]

If's official, it would cost $5 million to develop a 16nm ASIC Chip for SHA256 algorithm Shocked

From Marco Streng interview (CEO of Genesis Mining):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ROQZZhjY1c

Yearly, coin production value at $225 is $295,650,000

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 10 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $50 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $500 million.

Modifying the formula for lower profits:

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 1 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $10 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $100 million.

Essentially, it is highly unlikely you will see a 16nm SHA256 mining ASIC CHIP on BITCOIN this year, because no manufacturer would expect to generate 34% net sales out net coin values when BTC price is a stably frozen

Wrong.

KnCMiner raises $15M led by Accel Partners and completes 16nm tape-out with TSMC

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-124

Then the units will be very expensive to recover their $5 million or KCNminer will go bankrupt this year. I know they must have made net losses on their Scrypt Titans

facepalm stop this unrelated bullshit please

[thevictimofuktyranny]

Thanks for the article:

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-124

Tape out does not really matter at all, it is the silicon yield on the wafer that decides whether or not you can produce economically. That is was what delayed Intel for 6 months

In the article: KCNminer has had to borrow $15 million this year, not a good sign, probably to patch up losses on the Scrypt Titan (22nm ASIC chip)

2014, total nets sales were only $100 million last year at BTC price between Jan 2014 at $754 and finished at December 2014 $314.

http://www.coindesk.com/price/

How are they going to make a profit from 16nm production, when BTC is at $225

KCNminer could mothball it for 1-2 years (common practive in other industries), because the article says they have a biggish mining operation to fund themselves from year to year

[TheRama]

today is the 10th so why a dividend your quote doesnt help i read it before

Maybe Havelock paying out of their own pocket as they will get it when AMHash is ready to work

I hope so that would actually be amazing lol

a delay by 14 days would cost them 0,28% of total payout amount

so for them its better to continue payouts if they know amhash will pay later

rule of the havelock amhash1 fund says:

3. If the delay of payment happens, all unpaid payments will be accounted separately on daily basis and increase by 0.02% per day
(flat rate based on the initial unpaid payment amount, no compound rate) after three days.

Wouldn't that just mean the tomorrow's dividend would be increased by 0.28% and the next day's dividend will be paid with a 0.26% premium and so on?  Not that 0.28% or 0.02% matters too much, lol.  Might as well be 0.

[DARKANGEL6415]

Just as a comparison, if you bought a Bitman S5 today as a newbie miner.

S5 is $413
PSU is $110
Raspberry Pi $56
Postage $23

Location USA, 10 cent per a watt.
Average difficulty 12 months 47 billion
BTC average price $225 over 12 months.

ROI is 14.28 months. Block Halving is in 18 months

Older miners, may have an existing PSU (11.28 months) or existing PC/Raspbery Pi (12.85 months) or both (10.28 months).

Currently, if you pop over to Havelock and buy some AMHASH1, on these identical variables you're looking at a 7-8 month ROI.  

Units producing at 0.2watts per 1GHs are unlikely to out before June this year; you'd have made back most of your investment before difficulty rises towards 49.99 billion. Also, a lot of GPU manufacturers and CPU manufactuerers suffered 4-6 months delays when they went to 16nm fabrication (poor silicon yields equaled delays)

Additionally, (these are highly speculative estimates) because this is guessing at non-public information:

1.2watts per 1GHs 50PTHs is swtiched off, but still setup to be switiched on if BTC price rises.
1.2 watts per 1GHs 60PTHs is in locations were electricity is 9 cent per watt and switches off when difficulty passes 44 billion.

1watt per 1ghs will be switched off at a difficulty of 47.1 billion onwards. This is speculation, but about 160PTHs of this network hashpower is here.

0.7watt per 1ghs will be switched off at difficulty of 67.3 billions onwards. This stuff is quite new and there is about 80GHs of it on the network.
 
So, there are significant obstacles in place to halt rises in network difficulty

INTERESTING that is alot of fancy numbers, lets hope difficulty drops and makes amhash more earnings 

[thevictimofuktyranny]

Difficulty can't drop, because older mining equipment will be switched on.

However, if difficulty does not go above 50 billion this year, buying AMhash at Havelock will make a respectable profit over the 2015, even as Bitman S5 sales occur or it rivals

The fancy numbers show at what difficulty zone at what watt older equipment will be switched off. Secondly, it speculates as to how much PHTs will be switched off at difficulty zones

This will prevent difficulty doubling as we saw in the last 5 months of 2014

A balanced investment strategy is always recommended to protect investors or newbie investors; investing in the other two major economic POW coins (LTC and DRK)

[galdur]

Well, I´m of course as before totally focused on the yield and with difficulty increasing fast, doing all I can to make the yield surpass the increase. This I do by constant reinvestments between vehicles and reinvestment straight into my core instrument (about half of the whole). So, I rely a lot on compound interest. And I´m always on the lookout for trading opportunities. You really have to be on your toes in this crazy and fast moving marketplace.

[thevictimofuktyranny]

As a digression, for anyone investing in DRK.

The current ROI on a 4 card 750TI PC hashing machine on Darkcoin is:

POW 62.5% mining versus Masternode deduction of 37.2% on block reward, not everything goes through masternodes, effective block reward is 3.41DRK for miners.

China 8 cent electricity and BTC price is $225

3 year breakeven on investment $870 = (Difficulty at 3520) 0.023BTC or $5.175.

Should you factor in 20% per year profit margin for the miner, yes, it is a miserly profit margin

0.0276BTC or $6.21.

These calculations won't really bite home until 2016, when old Litecoin GPU machines (to many) fail in large numbers, miners will either need to increase their selling price or quit GPU mining altogether (Darkcoins supports 60% of GPU cards mining today). The latter would monopolize DRK into miners who love hoarding DRK; who will refuse to sell their DRK on the exchanges pushing up the DRK price  

Equally, there is 7% block reduction per annum and these calculations should be adjusted each year.

[xhomerx10]

As a digression, for anyone investing in DRK.

The current ROI on a 4 card 750TI PC hashing machine on Darkcoin is:

POW 62.5% mining versus Masternode deduction of 37.2% on block reward, not everything goes through masternodes, effective block reward is 3.41DRK for miners.

China 8 cent electricity and BTC price is $225

3 year breakeven on investment $870 = (Difficulty at 3520) 0.023BTC or $5.175.

Should you factor in 20% per year profit margin for the miner, yes, it is a miserly profit margin

0.0276BTC or $6.21.

These calculations won't really bite home until 2016, when old Litecoin GPU machines (to many) fail in large numbers, miners will either need to increase their selling price or quit GPU mining altogether (Darkcoins supports 60% of GPU cards mining today). The latter would monopolize DRK into miners who love hoarding DRK; who will refuse to sell their DRK on the exchanges pushing up the DRK price  

Equally, there is 7% block reduction per annum and these calculations should be adjusted each year.

 Why do you continue to do this?! This in NOT a thread for DRK it is for AMHash!  You do NOT post digressions in a thread, you create a new fucking thread.  Are you incapable of understanding this basic concept? If so, why should we listen to anything you have to say?  You will simply end up on everyone's ignore list.  You are being inconsiderate and obstinate.
 

[iCEBREAKER]

FC seems to no longer be fulfilling AM's most basic obligation to their original shareholders.   

XPOST of interest to investors in ASICMINER and its subsidiaries/partners/products:

OgNasty, where you at?

I'm waiting patiently for confirmation that shares have been transferred so I can make the final payment.  I offered to send 0.75 BTC now to satisfy the agreement in exchange for assuming the risk of AM not paying out or confirming the share transfer.  I am still happy to do that, or we can stick to the original agreement and wait for confirmation from AM.

Friedcat is a scammer if he does not honor his promise to transfer shares upon request.

We risked our BTC to make him rich and famous.  And now he's too busy being successful to spend 5 minutes dealing with an early investor?

If Friedcat breaks his promise to confirm share transfers, I hope the Chinese Scam Police hunt him down and teach him a lesson.

[thevictimofuktyranny]

Well, I´m of course as before totally focused on the yield and with difficulty increasing fast, doing all I can to make the yield surpass the increase. This I do by constant reinvestments between vehicles and reinvestment straight into my core instrument (about half of the whole). So, I rely a lot on compound interest. And I´m always on the lookout for trading opportunities. You really have to be on your toes in this crazy and fast moving marketplace.

I've found you a lovely difficulty chart at Coindesk galdur, which illustrates the slowing in BTC difficulty increases and may help you in your future investments

http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-time/

20 May 2014: 6.9 billion start

27 September 2014: 34.6 billion finish

Net increase over 4.3 months 5x or 500% higher  

28 September 2014: 34.6 billion start

11 February 2015: 44.45 billion finish --Today---

Net increase 4.3 months 28.46%

The last measurement over the last 4.3 months looks much better for my Havelock AMhash1 investment, I did it for those who prefer rigid historical analysis versus future modelling of economic conditions analysis

PS: xhomerx10 and explorer have been added to my ignore list

[galdur]

Thanks for that.

I don´t doubt that the difficulty bubble is leveling off, for the time being at least. But still +7-8% per 14 days is substantial. Your yield has to be higher of course,otherwise you´re at best running in place. My yield dropping below 1%/day is a minor crisis to me. But fortunately that´s rare, the average is around 1.5% best days 2% or so. When you work with compound interest and achieve substantial daily yields, over time the results can be quite spectacular.

[thevictimofuktyranny]

Thanks for that.

I don´t doubt that the difficulty bubble is leveling off, for the time being at least. But still +7-8% per 14 days is substantial. Your yield has to be higher of course,otherwise you´re at best running in place. My yield dropping below 1%/day is a minor crisis to me. But fortunately that´s rare, the average is around 1.5% best days 2% or so. When you work with compound interest and achieve substantial daily yields, over time the results can be quite spectacular.

Yes galdur

If you are using the compound interest strategy, it will be very sensitive to increases in difficulty, it going to be stressful and it's feel like a full time job

I admire your work ethic and resilience though

 

[galdur]

Thanks for that.

I don´t doubt that the difficulty bubble is leveling off, for the time being at least. But still +7-8% per 14 days is substantial. Your yield has to be higher of course,otherwise you´re at best running in place. My yield dropping below 1%/day is a minor crisis to me. But fortunately that´s rare, the average is around 1.5% best days 2% or so. When you work with compound interest and achieve substantial daily yields, over time the results can be quite spectacular.

Yes galdur

If you are using the compound interest strategy, it will be very sensitive to increases in difficulty, it going to be stressful and it's feel like a full time job

I admire your work ethic and resilience though

 

Nah, it´s not really sensitive to difficulty except that when difficulty is rising I get more alert and work more on moving funds around. And more active in trading.

My strategy is actually defensive although it yields aggressive results. It is simply a necessary counter to the difficulty bubble and the constantly tanking BTC price. I could have simply bought BTC and held but I hate falling holdings. And I just love this mining business and all its nuances and possibilities.

[Jayjay04]

Big dumping happening right now...
Can't believe they haven't made a clearer announcement....

[RoadStress]

Big dumping happening right now...
Can't believe they haven't made a clearer announcement....

Is there a reason for anyone to buy or hold these shares?

[galdur]

It´s just someone who needed to get rid of a few thousand units. I don´t think it´s anything major.