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magicmexican (OP)
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January 15, 2015, 09:12:24 PM |
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Jan 16 picks    Only 4 picks so far. Things are starting to slow down for now. Also, since the 'Gambling' section became pretty much unbearable with all these ponzi threads, i've started a blog several days ago. So if you dont want to look for this thread - you can find my picks here -> [BLOG](i will still keep posting picks in this thread though. Also the record there is obviously a little bit different, but not by much)
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 15, 2015, 11:04:38 PM |
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Jan 16 picks part 2 New lines came up : 
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 16, 2015, 07:24:18 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2015, 09:32:59 PM by magicmexican |
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Jan 16 Results
6W-2L +4.769 units Total: 129 W-102 L +6.260 unitsPretty interesting day. I think the oddmakers were not the brightest this time, and made tons of mistakes with the odds @Dota2. The public also moved the lines into the wrong direction by betting on the "favorites", so that was a nice bonus. Some matches were a clear value bets, but Fire vs Hellraisers was a rare case of oddmakers misjudging the favorite and the underdog(giving a favorite +271 odds). I was even considering betting something like 3-5 units in that case, but decided to stay disciplined. In the end a perfect dota2 day. The 'underdogs' (who were not really dogs) did prevail. Moving to Starcraft2 , Taeja losing to herO was not super unexpected, it was a razor-thin value bet. However, the Curious-Terminator loss was somewhat frustrating, because Curious had the game won, but choked by making a clear rookie mistake and ended up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. This should've been another +1 unit profit, making it a +6.75 units day. But this happens too often to get mad about it.   
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 17, 2015, 02:24:44 AM |
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Seems like a couple of starcraft2 matches from Jan 16 got delayed and canceled(TY-Bomber, Yonghwa-Dream). Thats a little bit annoying, missing 2 value bets that had their lines moved quite a bit after i made the pick. So at the moment there are no 'pending' bets, except my picks for Jan 17. |
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 17, 2015, 06:37:13 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2015, 09:32:42 PM by magicmexican |
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Jan 17 results 1W-3L -0.831 units Total: 130 W-105 L +5.429 units
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 19, 2015, 12:39:52 PM |
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Picks for Jan 23  Also, the small update with the results is coming soon
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 19, 2015, 01:08:10 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2015, 09:32:24 PM by magicmexican |
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Results2W-2L +0.403 units Total: 132W-107L +5.832 units
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 19, 2015, 04:02:35 PM
Last edit: January 19, 2015, 09:32:01 PM by magicmexican |
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Today's quick result1W-0L +0.3435 units Total: 133W-107L +6.175 units
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 19, 2015, 09:27:23 PM
Last edit: January 20, 2015, 05:03:11 PM by magicmexican |
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 19, 2015, 10:10:10 PM
Last edit: January 20, 2015, 01:39:11 PM by magicmexican |
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By the way, after today's 9 picks, it will be exactly 1 month since i've started to post the picks. It's really just an arbitary number that people pay attention way too much in betting. However, it will be still nice to avoid breaking the streak of never having a losing month (as long as volume is meaningfull, of course).
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 20, 2015, 01:41:49 AM |
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Interesting line movement.Peculiar stuff - here is my pick from the Jan 17 (you can scroll up a bit and find it)  And this is how the line looks now -  Intriguing, isnt it? I still stand by my pick, and think its a ridiculously good of a value bet @these odds. There were no new results//rumours, or any new information to fuel this line movement at all, so to me it looks like someone thought bookmakers made a blunder and gave away very good odds on the "favorite". Usually i dont pay much attention to line movements, because over the long run it negates the time it was 'wrong', and one thing is certain - blindly following the movement wont make you money. And guessing which time is which is not a good investment of the time in this field, in my opinion. In any case, this will be the match to pay attention to. Not particularly interested in the overall result, but more like how close it will be, and how exactly will it play out.
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 20, 2015, 01:36:03 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2015, 12:59:21 PM by magicmexican |
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Jan 20 picksDota 2 - JoinDota League 
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 20, 2015, 06:41:59 PM |
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Results3W-6L -2.757 units Total: 136 W-113 L +3.419 units   
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 21, 2015, 02:15:44 AM |
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Interesting line movement.Peculiar stuff - here is my pick from the Jan 17 (you can scroll up a bit and find it) And this is how the line looks now - Intriguing, isnt it? I still stand by my pick, and think its a ridiculously good of a value bet @these odds. There were no new results//rumours, or any new information to fuel this line movement at all, so to me it looks like someone thought bookmakers made a blunder and gave away very good odds on the "favorite". Usually i dont pay much attention to line movements, because over the long run it negates the time it was 'wrong', and one thing is certain - blindly following the movement wont make you money. And guessing which time is which is not a good investment of the time in this field, in my opinion. In any case, this will be the match to pay attention to. Not particularly interested in the overall result, but more like how close it will be, and how exactly will it play out. He-he, seems the match was, indeed, fixed. The result was canceled by all the bookies. -1L +0.45 units Total: +3.87 units |
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 21, 2015, 02:27:04 AM
Last edit: January 21, 2015, 03:29:52 AM by magicmexican |
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Jan 21 picksDota 2 
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magicmexican (OP)
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January 21, 2015, 12:49:12 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2015, 01:36:15 PM by magicmexican |
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New pickDota 2 - Esportal Dota 2 League 
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