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Voodah
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July 31, 2013, 02:49:34 PM |
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have I missed something crucial or why is the AM price imploding on dividend day?
Another explanation USD/BTC rate. AM share price in USD remains relatively stable. This is it guys. When BTC dropped to 68, AM acted as hedge and went all the way up to +5. We are now recovering on the BTC/USD side and AM is correcting back down. Ehh, I still question the correlation to USD/BTC. You are buying a share in btc, to earn a profit in btc... div is paid in btc. Only fiat comes in with fixed costs like power, making the chips, that stuff, which is a fraction of what we take in. Unless someone can chart it for me and show me a good correlation, I do NOT think fiat prices have a huge effect on AM prices. I do not even consider fiat in any way when thinking if AM is a good buy or if I should be selling. I might if operating costs were ever a larger portion of our take. Doesn't really matter if you yourself view it that way or not. I also do not assess the outcome of my investments this way, if I put btc I look at btc. But the market certainly thinks differently. The correlation is there, easy to see. And thinking about it, honestly, I think it is not the result of people thinking as you say in fiat, but rather a natural response to the fact that there was/is no natural hedging mechanism for a btc investment. AM, the best performing stock, has somehow become that mechanism (or at least it did so during the last wave down) for a fraction of the market who were in clear demand of such a thing. |
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chriswilmer
Legendary
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Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
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July 31, 2013, 02:49:47 PM |
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Ah... is THAT what's going on? Interesting! Div predictions anyone? I'll start: 0.02 |
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SimonL
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Activity: 113
Merit: 10
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July 31, 2013, 02:52:19 PM |
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have I missed something crucial or why is the AM price imploding on dividend day?
Another explanation USD/BTC rate. AM share price in USD remains relatively stable. This is it guys. When BTC dropped to 68, AM acted as hedge and went all the way up to +5. We are now recovering on the BTC/USD side and AM is correcting back down. It's tempting to think that, but the dividend profits remain the same, additionally the expenses for Asicminer reduces since they don't need to convert as many to cover costs, thus there would likely be a marginal increase in dividends, thus justifying the price of the shares remaining the same (or perhaps even higher since AM is suddenly spitting out higher divs). Asicminer's competitiveness to reap massive profits haven't changed, and even though there are competitors on the horizon, they are still left to prove themselves. BTC holders really shouldn't be losing value on the shares in BTC, only those that aren't in the Bitcoin economy should be at a disadvantage. |
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lano1106
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July 31, 2013, 02:59:50 PM |
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It's tempting to think that, but the dividend profits remain the same, additionally the expenses for Asicminer reduces since they don't need to convert as many to cover costs, thus there would likely be a marginal increase in dividends, thus justifying the price of the shares remaining the same (or perhaps even higher since AM is suddenly spitting out higher divs). Asicminer's competitiveness to reap massive profits haven't changed, and even though there are competitors on the horizon, they are still left to prove themselves. BTC holders really shouldn't be losing value on the shares in BTC, only those that aren't in the Bitcoin economy should be at a disadvantage.
it is maybe tricky to grasp but in other words, the value of AM share does not change. only its price tag nominated into something that fluctuate. |
BTC: 1ABewnrZgCds7w9RH43NwMHX5Px6ex5uNR
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Voodah
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July 31, 2013, 03:06:46 PM |
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have I missed something crucial or why is the AM price imploding on dividend day?
Another explanation USD/BTC rate. AM share price in USD remains relatively stable. This is it guys. When BTC dropped to 68, AM acted as hedge and went all the way up to +5. We are now recovering on the BTC/USD side and AM is correcting back down. It's tempting to think that, but the dividend profits remain the same, additionally the expenses for Asicminer reduces since they don't need to convert as many to cover costs, thus there would likely be a marginal increase in dividends, thus justifying the price of the shares remaining the same (or perhaps even higher since AM is suddenly spitting out higher divs). Asicminer's competitiveness to reap massive profits haven't changed, and even though there are competitors on the horizon, they are still left to prove themselves. BTC holders really shouldn't be losing value on the shares in BTC, only those that aren't in the Bitcoin economy should be at a disadvantage. Divs are a whole other thing, composed of several streams, some of them highly variable, like sales. BTC holders (or anyone) haven't really lost any value. Before the move up that hedged the btc wave down to 68, AM was at 3.5. This move artificially pumped the AM price up all the way 5~ and it is now 4.2. After all is said and done, AM gained ~15% by acting as hedge. The gains are probably accounted for by new people who realized during the down wave that AM was the best hedging asset |
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SimonL
Member
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Activity: 113
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July 31, 2013, 03:26:38 PM |
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Divs are a whole other thing, composed of several streams, some of them highly variable, like sales.
BTC holders (or anyone) haven't really lost any value. Before the move up that hedged the btc wave down to 68, AM was at 3.5. This move artificially pumped the AM price up all the way 5~ and it is now 4.2.
After all is said and done, AM gained ~15% by acting as hedge. The gains are probably accounted for by new people who realized during the down wave that AM was the best hedging asset
But just like Bitcoin, the more people that become involved in trading Asicminer shares, the scarcer they become, thus bumping up the price through demand. People that want to enter the mining game but want to hedge some of their risk or are simply lazy can buy shares in AM. Considering how furious mining is becoming I bet a lot of people are giving up the backyard game and simply throwing their weight behind mining startups. I don't think Asicminer is going to be going anywhere in the years ahead, and I'm reasonably certain that once people see the staying power of AM (I doubt Friedcat is going to be giving up his slice of the hashrate pie to any startups), they'll probably drive up prices further, for better or worse. Of course it remains to be seen if other BTC holders mirror my feelings but I think it's certainly possible. |
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foxykah
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July 31, 2013, 04:07:40 PM |
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Good things come to those who wait.
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chriswilmer
Legendary
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Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
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July 31, 2013, 04:14:57 PM |
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Apparently not, read Smiguel's comment above. |
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foxykah
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July 31, 2013, 04:16:27 PM |
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Apparently not, read Smiguel's comment above. and what is that? AM is transforming into a pool or what?  |
Good things come to those who wait.
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chriswilmer
Legendary
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Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
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July 31, 2013, 04:17:25 PM |
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Apparently not, read Smiguel's comment above. and what is that? AM is transforming into a pool or what? Maybe it's just a new node they are trying out. I don't know... but I want to know! |
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finlof
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July 31, 2013, 04:42:46 PM |
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.01 dividend so far from mining. hardware sales?
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SmiGueL
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July 31, 2013, 05:01:42 PM
Last edit: July 31, 2013, 05:12:12 PM by SmiGueL |
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.01 dividend so far from mining. hardware sales?
0.010 from mining. And 0.0043 + random number from new addresses which i guess is between 0.000 and 0.005 from sales. |
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lophie
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July 31, 2013, 05:04:23 PM |
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0.019624827 per share. Kinda low I was hoping for it to pay for my jet this week.  |
Will take me a while to climb up again, But where is a will, there is a way...
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americandesi
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July 31, 2013, 05:04:46 PM |
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Div this week = 0.01858868
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SmiGueL
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July 31, 2013, 05:08:21 PM |
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0.01858868 confirmed  |
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SimonL
Member
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Activity: 113
Merit: 10
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July 31, 2013, 05:09:18 PM |
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0.01858868 confirmed here too.
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lophie
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July 31, 2013, 05:10:09 PM |
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so I have more shares O_o? Damn I lost track of how many I have >_<! lol EDIT: Yeah 5 more shares I did not account for........ sorry guys. |
Will take me a while to climb up again, But where is a will, there is a way...
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foxykah
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July 31, 2013, 05:19:35 PM |
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Apparently not, read Smiguel's comment above. and what is that? AM is transforming into a pool or what? Maybe it's just a new node they are trying out. I don't know... but I want to know! and blochchain won't count those block in as AM blocks or what? |
Good things come to those who wait.
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forensick
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July 31, 2013, 05:21:46 PM |
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0.01858868 dividend
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