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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914570 times)
Elokane
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August 19, 2013, 10:57:07 PM
 #11301

Looks like competition is on the way: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.msg2964842#msg2964842

Their shareprice already jumped to 165%.

I await that in the future mostly big companies will share the mining. Simply because they will have access to the lowest priced hardware, not like normal customers.

speculators get excited on very little news these days.  We've seen labcoin lose 50% of it's value in a day, I wouldn't be surprised if we see that again within the next week.

there are a LOT of questions yet to be answered by that team, and for the information and results delivered so far, the stock is vastly overvalued.  The statement today was nothing new or amazing, just that they are "on track".

What sort of questions have they not answered yet?

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Pierre
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August 19, 2013, 11:01:24 PM
 #11302

What's happening, why are we not shipping block eruptors yet?  Huh
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August 19, 2013, 11:19:00 PM
Last edit: August 20, 2013, 01:35:11 AM by ninjarobot
 #11303

Imho, it is about time ASICMiner makes the jump to gen2 hardware to stay in pole position.

(assuming friedcat will be able to compete with 55nm hardware in what is rapidly turning into a predominantly 28nm mining world)

Otherwise expect a gradual decline in hashrate coverage, hardware sales, weekly dividends and share price.
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August 20, 2013, 12:41:54 AM
 #11304

On the sidelines thinking where do the bitcoins go later Smiley
smart money takes the gains on the crowd, puts it into less risky places...

Well I would say that but then I was thinking if I just bought more Xbonds and sold them back  Cheesy

Anyways probably some rebound most btc went to Labcoin same effect as when garden cancelled IPO if nothing happens in lab for a while.
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August 20, 2013, 12:45:49 AM
 #11305

New blades were supposed to be announced yesterday I thought? 

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August 20, 2013, 01:45:16 AM
 #11306

Looks like competition is on the way: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.msg2964842#msg2964842

Their shareprice already jumped to 165%.

I await that in the future mostly big companies will share the mining. Simply because they will have access to the lowest priced hardware, not like normal customers.

Butterfly Lab's Monarch

Thoughts? Or have people learned?
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August 20, 2013, 01:47:41 AM
Last edit: August 20, 2013, 02:09:05 AM by freedomno1
 #11307

Looks like competition is on the way: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.msg2964842#msg2964842

Their shareprice already jumped to 165%.

I await that in the future mostly big companies will share the mining. Simply because they will have access to the lowest priced hardware, not like normal customers.

Butterfly Lab's Monarch

Thoughts? Or have people learned?

BFL

Hey guys theirs imitators out here we must have the best units around Smiley

Probably just upgraded their imaginary specs so we can't compare them to the real units around.

(Hey you Jerks, what are you doing announcing 28nm gear while you're still shipping 65nm? I want my Single!)
Heh-heh-heh

Or use the hitler video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jYNMKdv36w

Few more months till BFL goes lol.
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August 20, 2013, 01:48:42 AM
 #11308

apparently they wouldn't even be cooling the monarch properly, as that many watts in such a small area would require something more than the blower fan it shows in the pictures. 

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August 20, 2013, 01:56:20 AM
 #11309

compare with divs,the cheaper share price the better Grin

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August 20, 2013, 02:21:34 AM
 #11310

apparently they wouldn't even be cooling the monarch properly, as that many watts in such a small area would require something more than the blower fan it shows in the pictures.  

How much does it pull? ( keeping in mind a 7970 mining litecoins can do something ridiculous like 300W and still be cooled adequately on ONE die)

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August 20, 2013, 02:30:26 AM
 #11311

apparently they wouldn't even be cooling the monarch properly, as that many watts in such a small area would require something more than the blower fan it shows in the pictures.  

How much does it pull? ( keeping in mind a 7970 mining litecoins can do something ridiculous like 300W and still be cooled adequately on ONE die)

350W if BFL power estimates are correct (which they haven't been for a single product back to the original FPGA miner).  The only cards that pull that much are the 6990 and 7990.  AMD had to delay the launch by over 6 months for both those products due to ... thermal and power issues.  

Pulling 350+ watts out of a confined space is an engineering challenge even for a company like AMD with decades of experience and a large talented team.  It is more than reasonable that BFL given their track record of perfect hardware launches and accurate power simulations will be able to do in 3 months what AMD couldn't do in almost a year.
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August 20, 2013, 02:31:34 AM
 #11312

apparently they wouldn't even be cooling the monarch properly, as that many watts in such a small area would require something more than the blower fan it shows in the pictures.  

How much does it pull? ( keeping in mind a 7970 mining litecoins can do something ridiculous like 300W and still be cooled adequately on ONE die)

A PCI-E card with two 8-pin power connectors can draw up to 375 W total.  150 W from each of the two connectors and 75 W from the motherboard connector.  This will require large fans a la the latest video cards that draw this much power.
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August 20, 2013, 02:33:18 AM
 #11313

Any updates on the new blade?

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August 20, 2013, 02:34:02 AM
 #11314

A PCI-E card with two 8-pin power connectors can draw up to 375 W total.  150 W from each of the two connectors and 75 W from the motherboard connector.  This will require large fans a la the latest video cards that draw this much power.

Well it can't pull any power from the motherboard.  BFL claims the product can be connected by EITHER PCIe or USB.  So when connected by USB that would mean it isn't connected to motherboard's powerlanes.   So either it is going to be three 8 pin PCIe connectors or they will need to run it overspec.  No I am not making this up.
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August 20, 2013, 02:39:25 AM
 #11315

A PCI-E card with two 8-pin power connectors can draw up to 375 W total.  150 W from each of the two connectors and 75 W from the motherboard connector.  This will require large fans a la the latest video cards that draw this much power.

Well it can't pull any power from the motherboard.  BFL claims the product can be connected by EITHER PCIe or USB.  So when connected by USB that would mean it isn't connected to motherboard's powerlanes.   So either it is going to be three 8 pin PCIe connectors or they will need to run it overspec.  No I am not making this up.

We're in agreement. If it's plugged in to a PCI-E slot it can get 75 W from there and then draw 150 W each from two 8-pin connectors.  If it's hooked up via USB it will need three 8-pin PCI-E or some other high-power connector from an external PSU because you're not getting 350 W through a USB cable :-)
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August 20, 2013, 02:46:45 AM
 #11316

A PCI-E card with two 8-pin power connectors can draw up to 375 W total.  150 W from each of the two connectors and 75 W from the motherboard connector.  This will require large fans a la the latest video cards that draw this much power.

Well it can't pull any power from the motherboard.  BFL claims the product can be connected by EITHER PCIe or USB.  So when connected by USB that would mean it isn't connected to motherboard's powerlanes.   So either it is going to be three 8 pin PCIe connectors or they will need to run it overspec.  No I am not making this up.

Yeah, I agree. If I was an AM investor I would be 0% worried about the Monarch (I think more of the Venture Bros. loser supervillain than a butterfly). I'm bearish on AM, sure, but BFL is a tremendous fuckup of a company.

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August 20, 2013, 02:50:25 AM
 #11317

I think more of the Venture Bros. loser supervillain than a butterfly

Same here.

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August 20, 2013, 04:33:29 AM
 #11318

A PCI-E card with two 8-pin power connectors can draw up to 375 W total.  150 W from each of the two connectors and 75 W from the motherboard connector.  This will require large fans a la the latest video cards that draw this much power.

Well it can't pull any power from the motherboard.  BFL claims the product can be connected by EITHER PCIe or USB.  So when connected by USB that would mean it isn't connected to motherboard's powerlanes.   So either it is going to be three 8 pin PCIe connectors or they will need to run it overspec.  No I am not making this up.

Yeah, I agree. If I was an AM investor I would be 0% worried about the Monarch (I think more of the Venture Bros. loser supervillain than a butterfly). I'm bearish on AM, sure, but BFL is a tremendous fuckup of a company.

Vycid, I agree as well and know you are bearish on AM, but what is your price target? How low does AM have to go before you think it's fairly valued? 1, 2, 2.5, 3? If it's dividends were to stay stable, I think it's undervalued at its current level, but its priced lower due to risk of dividends dropping, which is definitely a possibility. Right now, I think investing in AM (at least new coins) is a gamble on them beating competition to gen 2 ASICs and shipping/deploying them consistently. If they lose, it doesn't really matter what their current dividends are because they will trickle to nothing within a few months.

I'd say AM is a Hold at the current time, don't buy or sell until some of the uncertainty of gen 2 chips disappears over the next 2-3 months.
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August 20, 2013, 04:55:54 AM
Last edit: August 20, 2013, 05:16:42 AM by Vycid
 #11319

A PCI-E card with two 8-pin power connectors can draw up to 375 W total.  150 W from each of the two connectors and 75 W from the motherboard connector.  This will require large fans a la the latest video cards that draw this much power.

Well it can't pull any power from the motherboard.  BFL claims the product can be connected by EITHER PCIe or USB.  So when connected by USB that would mean it isn't connected to motherboard's powerlanes.   So either it is going to be three 8 pin PCIe connectors or they will need to run it overspec.  No I am not making this up.

Yeah, I agree. If I was an AM investor I would be 0% worried about the Monarch (I think more of the Venture Bros. loser supervillain than a butterfly). I'm bearish on AM, sure, but BFL is a tremendous fuckup of a company.

Vycid, I agree as well and know you are bearish on AM, but what is your price target? How low does AM have to go before you think it's fairly valued? 1, 2, 2.5, 3? If it's dividends were to stay stable, I think it's undervalued at its current level, but its priced lower due to risk of dividends dropping, which is definitely a possibility. Right now, I think investing in AM (at least new coins) is a gamble on them beating competition to gen 2 ASICs and shipping/deploying them consistently. If they lose, it doesn't really matter what their current dividends are because they will trickle to nothing within a few months.

I'd say AM is a Hold at the current time, don't buy or sell until some of the uncertainty of gen 2 chips disappears over the next 2-3 months.

If dividends stay stable I'll eat my hat. Or I'll buy a hat and eat it, as appropriate.

In my opinion a lot of AM's potential for value has been expended in the last couple of months. Rather than pursuing aggressive growth options (like becoming a Bitcoin->USD payment system, opening a Bitcoin exchange, opening a trustworthy Bitcoin bank, and offering a USD-denominated Bitcoin wallet, all of which are synergistic growth options), they've paid back all their dividends. That's disappointing. ~0.5 BTC a share is enough money that they could have become all of those things under competent leadership.

Growth companies are supposed to grow. AM is the first "growth" company I have ever seen that has managed to shrink its revenue. I only consider it a growth company because it is priced like one.

"Priced like one?!" you exclaim, "but it's got a 25% APR!"

Right. And how long does that last? Everyone should understand the following, read it very carefully.

AM owned the market for ASICs at the point when they were MOST profitable. This is why their dividends were so incredible. But, even if AM continues to dominate the market for ASICs in the next generations forward, the performance per watt for all ASICs will not vastly increase. This means that the potential profit per ASIC over the cost of electricity will shrink.

Think of what it was like with GPUs for a while. It was very profitable, but then everyone started doing it and electricity costs got in the way. You were fighting the electricity bill. You could run them in low-cost electricity regions, you could tune things to reduce power consumption, but it simply wasn't as profitable as it was when the bitcoins/watt ratio was higher.

AM's ability to sell their hardware at incredible prices (or run it for incredible profits) depends on the PROFIT MARGINS of that hardware, not the potential coins generated. If the value of the coins mined is barely higher than the cost of the electricity consumed (and the competition will make sure that happens one way or another), then AM isn't making much money and the dividends vanish.

This is a http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons situation, for those familiar with the concept. There are only so many bitcoins to go around, everybody wants some, and it requires resources to get them. Before long the value of the resources expended in obtaining the bitcoins (electricity, hardware manufacturing cost) will approximate the resources required to obtain them, despite the fact that it would be in everyone's best interest to keep the difficulty low (and not waste money on electricity). But humans are greedy motherfuckers.

If you prefer to think about it on a macro scale - the sum of all the money spent on electricity for mining and all the money spent on hardware for mining cannot exceed the value of all the coins mined. Or people wouldn't do it. And the electricity being used for mining will inexorably take a larger share of that pie as more and more hashpower is required to find a block, squeezing out the revenues for mining hardware. Moore's law will not save us here. And a potential increase in the value of bitcoins is no counter-argument here - AM is a Bitcoin-denominated security. You could hold BTC instead of buying the stock and you'd do just as well.

I should point out that AM's electricity rate is (probably - I only know the rates for Shenzhen, AM's HQ) the worst in China, and not particularly competitive with people smart enough to start up ops in places like North Central Washington. And before long, the most important factor in the ASIC battle will not be how good your hardware is, but how much your electricity costs. Your hardware can be twice as efficient, but if they get $0.01/kW-h electricity (North Central Washington) and you get $0.02/kW-h, you have no advantage.

So, margins cannot and will not remain stable. The dividends will start to drop heavily within the next month, I suspect.

My price target, based on all this? 1.2 BTC per share. Failure to beat the competition would reduce that further.

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August 20, 2013, 05:17:09 AM
 #11320

If dividends stay stable I'll eat my hat. Or I'll buy a hat and eat it, as appropriate.

Define what you would accept as stable dividends.  Within ___% for _____ months.

What sort of hat will you eat?  Baseball cap?  fedora?  Cowboy hat?  Some may be harder to get down than others.


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