ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[velacreations]

Oh yes, I see the error in my logic. One whale = all whales. Forgive my foolishness.

well, technically, 2 whales.  Maybe more.  He said "big players".  Implies more than one.

I don't know how many whales there are, so I don't know if 3 whales is a lot or not.  

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[TheSwede75]

I would prob say that anyone close to or over board-seat qualifies. So between 3-5k shares?

How many board seats do you have, Swede?

I'd def say that 10k BTC can cause quite a swing when they move around enough.

with 10k btc, you could crash every single security out there, and make up whatever story you wanted for the reasons.

Hah. I am solidly a "Guppy" with my double digit ownership

I would prob speculate that most "whales" are indeed holding steady. If you have $1 million + invested its fairly unlikely that a single week of 'underperforming' dividend really shakes you up. Especially considering almost all really major share holders have average purchase prices so low that not only have they made back their entire initial investment several times over in dividends but can realize several hundred % profit from selling anywhere over 1 BTC.

[Vycid]

Nope all whales
We can confirm it with the shareholder document  
Unless you want to call out this data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtqphFCP56ordGVCakJxSU90MlB4MlBkZENya25pS2c#gid=9

All I see is 31 individuals with 1000 shares or more. There is nothing to suggest none of them are planning to make an exit.

Like one nearly did today.

[freedomno1]

Nope all whales
We can confirm it with the shareholder document  
Unless you want to call out this data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtqphFCP56ordGVCakJxSU90MlB4MlBkZENya25pS2c#gid=9

All I see is 31 individuals with 1000 shares or more. There is nothing to suggest none of them are planning to make an exit.

There is also nothing to suggest some of them are planning to make an exit any time soon, in fact their is something to suggest that more of them are interesting in increasing their positions.

[velacreations]

Nope all whales
We can confirm it with the shareholder document  
Unless you want to call out this data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtqphFCP56ordGVCakJxSU90MlB4MlBkZENya25pS2c#gid=9

If 2,000 shares is the minimum for whale status, then I count 13 whales (don't count the PTs)

we know at least 3 whales are not dumping, based on eb3full's information.  That's pretty decent odds.

Can Vycid give us some evidence of 1 whale wanting to dump?

[velacreations]

Hah. I am solidly a "Guppy" with my double digit ownership

I would prob speculate that most "whales" are indeed holding steady. If you have $1 million + invested its fairly unlikely that a single week of 'underperforming' dividend really shakes you up. Especially considering almost all really major share holders have average purchase prices so low that not only have they made back their entire initial investment several times over in dividends but can realize several hundred % profit from selling anywhere over 1 BTC.

+1
well said, Swede.  Very clear logic. You're a gentleman and a scholar.

[deadgiveaway]

Thanks for the cheap shares, I am now over a goal I set a while ago and am feeling great. TY!!!

[friedcat]

Update

We have collected several shareholders' questions for answering.

Could we have an official live hashrate meter from ASICMINER?
We have an internal one, mainly for troubleshooting when some of the racks going down. The hashrate meter based on the blocks mined reflects more of the real speed (plus luck of course). We will buy more bandwidth before making it accessible by the whole internet. It also requires more commitment in maintenance.

For more transparency, is it possible to share a wallet address for depositing income from ASICMINER hardware sales?
We use a different deposit address for each payment transaction. But a centralized nexus address is good. Then people could see how the funds are separated as dividends and expenses.

Besides mining, hardware sales, and franchising, are there any other potential sources of revenue?
There are many possible ones considered, but none can support serious sound business model based on a 1-2billion dollar total market value of Bitcoin: selling patents, offering solution for mining farm construction, assembly service, etc.

Why has the hashrate dropped the past weeks?
It dropped in different few days. Some of them are internal hardware/network glitches, some of them are luck based. We haven't identified any form of DDOS attacks recently though.

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.
The ASICMiner expansion via franchising is still much within China border. The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.

[eb3full]

friedcat: are you opening up franchising to shareholders in a general sense or is shipping and collateral too much of a pain for it?

[velacreations]

hey friedcat!  how are ya?

[Vycid]

Nope all whales
We can confirm it with the shareholder document  
Unless you want to call out this data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtqphFCP56ordGVCakJxSU90MlB4MlBkZENya25pS2c#gid=9

All I see is 31 individuals with 1000 shares or more. There is nothing to suggest none of them are planning to make an exit.

There is also nothing to suggest some of them are planning to make an exit any time soon, in fact their is something to suggest that more of them are interesting in increasing their positions.

I've already produced a rational argument why you should expect them to attempt to exit. I will repeat it here.

As we saw today, the market cannot support significant sell volume. This is unsurprising, since the share price is buoyed by sentiment and not underlying value. ASICMiner has nowhere near 1.2 million BTC worth of assets and intangibles, so it is impossible for all holders to liquidate the current market value of their shares.

So, if everyone cannot liquidate completely, then it is the first actor who profits most. From a game theoretical perspective, every whale should be searching for the best way to be the first one out without demolishing the value of their own shares.

We have already observed some of that action by the daily filling of the bid wall.

[VolanicEruptor]

He's alive.. I thought he got fried

[Franktank]

Thanks for the update! That'll start the rally for the coming fall!

[freedomno1]

Update

We have collected several shareholders' questions for answering.

Could we have an official live hashrate meter from ASICMINER?
We have an internal one, mainly for troubleshooting when some of the racks going down. The hashrate meter based on the blocks mined reflects more of the real speed (plus luck of course). We will buy more bandwidth before making it accessible by the whole internet. It also requires more commitment in maintenance.

For more transparency, is it possible to share a wallet address for depositing income from ASICMINER hardware sales?
We use a different deposit address for each payment transaction. But a centralized nexus address is good. Then people could see how the funds are separated as dividends and expenses.

Besides mining, hardware sales, and franchising, are there any other potential sources of revenue?
There are many possible ones considered, but none can support serious sound business model based on a 1-2billion dollar total market value of Bitcoin: selling patents, offering solution for mining farm construction, assembly service, etc.

Why has the hashrate dropped the past weeks?
It dropped in different few days. Some of them are internal hardware/network glitches, some of them are luck based. We haven't identified any form of DDOS attacks recently though.

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.
The ASICMiner expansion via franchising is still much within China border. The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.

Woot Friedcat
I knew you were due for a post sooner or later thanks for posting 

[Franktank]

Update

We have collected several shareholders' questions for answering.
Besides mining, hardware sales, and franchising, are there any other potential sources of revenue?
There are many possible ones considered, but none can support serious sound business model based on a 1-2billion dollar total market value of Bitcoin: selling patents, offering solution for mining farm construction, assembly service, etc.

Interesting, very interesting....

Anyone know patent law well enough on ASIC chip set, size, and application?

[velacreations]

I've produced a rational argument why you should expect them to attempt to exit.

As we saw today, the market cannot support significant sell volume. This is unsurprising, since the share price is buoyed by sentiment and not underlying value. ASICMiner has nowhere near 1.2 million BTC worth of assets and intangibles, so it is impossible for all holders to liquidate the current market value of their shares.

So, if everyone cannot liquidate completely, then it is the first actor who profits most. From a game theoretical perspective, every whale should be searching for the best way to be the first one out without demolishing the value of their own shares.

what security does have the volume to support massive liquidation?  None of them.  Not even BTC itself on most exchanges.  That does not mean the value of the company is any less, it means that not many orders are posted on the exchange.  Pass-through shares are always going to be like that because they represent a very small part of the company.  

Look at how many shares are on BTCT: ~26K.  That's just 6.5% of the shares.  And out of those 26K, how many shares changed hands today? ~1400.  So, like 0.35%.  That's a very small sample.

[velacreations]

We have already observed some of that action by the daily filling of the bid wall.

How do you know it isn't different people?  How do we know it isn't you?  How many shares are exchanged during those manipulations?

It's hardly a "whale" if it's a few dozen shares.

[velacreations]

here's the most important piece of that update:

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

[Vycid]

I've produced a rational argument why you should expect them to attempt to exit.

As we saw today, the market cannot support significant sell volume. This is unsurprising, since the share price is buoyed by sentiment and not underlying value. ASICMiner has nowhere near 1.2 million BTC worth of assets and intangibles, so it is impossible for all holders to liquidate the current market value of their shares.

So, if everyone cannot liquidate completely, then it is the first actor who profits most. From a game theoretical perspective, every whale should be searching for the best way to be the first one out without demolishing the value of their own shares.

what security does have the volume to support massive liquidation?  None of them.  Not even BTC itself on most exchanges.  That does not mean the value of the company is any less, it means that not many orders are posted on the exchange.  Pass-through shares are always going to be like that because they represent a very small part of the company.  

Look at how many shares are on BTCT: ~26K.  That's just 6.5% of the shares.  And out of those 26K, how many shares changed hands today? ~1400.  So, like 0.35%.  That's a very small sample.

I am pleased by the opportunity for a real discussion.

Exactly -- 0.35% of the outstanding shares in daily volume, and everything goes to shit. This market is propped up by the paper-thin support of irrational buyers.

Do you think that if someone sold 0.35% of Shell Oil or Dow Chemical or similar that it would crash the price? No. Those companies are worth quite a bit even bankrupt. They own chemical plants and refineries and shipping networks. More importantly they have decades of consistent profit, so you can expect to recoup your investment. Money would flow in because it represents profit with nearly zero risk.

AM is profoundly uncertain. It owns little of value (50 TH primarily). As I've detailed before, the very potential for profit in the mining sector will be demolished by competition via a "tragedy of the commons" scenario. The mined BTC will largely be gobbled up by electricity costs. Even if AM maintains a significant hashrate percentage their profits will still plummet. We saw this happen with GPUs. Similarly AM's margins for hardware sales are based on the (former) lack of credible competition.

All this thing needs is a push. The whales know it. None of them want to be the one to destroy the market, but they want to be the last one out even less.

[eb3full]

AM is profoundly uncertain. It owns little of value (50 TH primarily). As I've detailed before, the very potential for profit in the mining sector will be demolished by competition via a "tragedy of the commons" scenario. The mined BTC will largely be gobbled up by electricity costs. Even if AM maintains a significant hashrate percentage their profits will still plummet. We saw this happen with GPUs. Similarly AM's margins for hardware sales are based on the (former) lack of credible competition.

All this thing needs is a push. The whales know it. None of them want to be the one to destroy the market, but they want to be the last one out even less.

Have you looked at their financials? They have an assembly infrastructure which is enormous and can clearly handle hundreds of terahashes of manufacturing a month. And they have more than 50TH, they just haven't deployed it and are selling it instead apparently.

The only way your idea could be accurate is if friedcat is lying, which could effectively be considered the end of argument.