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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914566 times)
gog1
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July 26, 2013, 01:55:21 AM
 #10461

I wonder if the Intel CPU SHA extensions will have any effect on ASIC mining ?

On chip SHA2 extensions in the Intel CPU : http://software.intel.com/en-us/articles/intel-sha-extensions

Could be big news

Could be. It's not clear from the whitepaper what specific architecture changes Intel are making to accommodate these instructions (i.e., it might be just a single hashing core).

Having said that I cannot believe that there aren't a few skunkworks ASIC chip designs floating around in Intel at the moment, given the number of chip designers they have.

How much did AES-NI speeds things up?  I suppose we maybe looking at similar factor.  Even with a speed up of 25-50x, CPU is still no match to ASIC.
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Even in the event that an attacker gains more than 50% of the network's computational power, only transactions sent by the attacker could be reversed or double-spent. The network would not be destroyed.
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July 26, 2013, 02:06:19 AM
 #10462

I wonder if the Intel CPU SHA extensions will have any effect on ASIC mining ?

On chip SHA2 extensions in the Intel CPU : http://software.intel.com/en-us/articles/intel-sha-extensions

Could be big news

Could be. It's not clear from the whitepaper what specific architecture changes Intel are making to accommodate these instructions (i.e., it might be just a single hashing core).

Having said that I cannot believe that there aren't a few skunkworks ASIC chip designs floating around in Intel at the moment, given the number of chip designers they have.

How much did AES-NI speeds things up?  I suppose we maybe looking at similar factor.  Even with a speed up of 25-50x, CPU is still no match to ASIC.

Yeah, I don't think we need to panic just yet. It's more likely to be used as a speedup for things like SSL which have to be decrypted in the CPU at the moment. Given that Intel is a conservative company with long lead times, it could be 12 months before you can even get your hands on hardware with these instructions, and even then it wouldn't be much chop as a miner. But it's still pretty cool.

 
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July 26, 2013, 02:19:12 AM
 #10463

AM market cap and the total number of bitcoins aren't as related as everyone seems to assume. The market determines the market cap based on what people are willing to pay for it to gain a certain return.

Lets say after all 21 million bitcoins are generated, TX fees have somehow reached 25 BTC per block and AM holds 30% of the total hashrate. Each year, a single AM share would pay out .9985 BTC in dividends. If the market was willing to get a 1% return on AM, it cost 98.55 BTC per share and and the total market cap would be nearly 40 million BTC. I know this unreasonable, but I think it shows the market determines the market cap and there is no 21 million BTC hard limit.

A better example may be 20% of the total hash rate, 10 BTC per block, and an accepted dividend yield of 5%. AM market cap would be about 2.1 million BTC. So, if there were 10 companies the size of AsicMiner at that time, then no one could buy all 10 companies at once because the combined market caps would be over 21 million.

I've created a spreadsheet here that people can play with. It has two knobs for turning (AM hash rate, and Tx fees per block)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApG_UykyjHF0dEU2b1B5ZVZTeW5OY3NLTGRYTW9xM3c&usp=sharing

Edit: Before people start screaming, I know some of these situations are VERY unrealistic. They are just meant to point out an example.

It is impossible that 10 companies have 20% of the total hasrate at the same time Tongue
So, second example is not good. But I get your point.

Yeah, I meant size in terms of market cap, not hashrate. 5 could all be mining companies and the others could be completely unrelated to bitcoin, just denominated in it.
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July 26, 2013, 02:20:52 AM
 #10464

actually just did some math, Core i7 3930k does 66.6 MH/s; a speed up by 50x would be 3.3 GH

I can imagine people using their machines at work to mine or mine at the library.
dhenson
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July 26, 2013, 02:35:22 AM
 #10465

actually just did some math, Core i7 3930k does 66.6 MH/s; a speed up by 50x would be 3.3 GH

I can imagine people using their machines at work to mine or mine at the library.

The biggest benefactor of the new instruction set will be the bot nets.
Strange Vlad
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July 26, 2013, 06:56:33 AM
 #10466

Two important questions about these Intel extensions:
1) When will the CPUs supporting them become available to buy?
2) What will be the hashrate? The hashrate per dollar cost of CPU?

LOL certainly I don't believe in 33GH per CPU. It would require hashing 10 cores per CPU at 3.3 GHz even if the calculation takes only 1 tick (which it certainly won't, 3-5 ticks is more realistic), and there's no reason to have as much as 10 cores for any non-mining purposes.
EDIT: disregard that, I didn't notice the point in 3.3

Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. There is no spoon. Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself.
1CdVTkA288cd3m1jkdqPjUfhQ5ebei8gVT
mem
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July 26, 2013, 07:16:38 AM
 #10467

actually just did some math, Core i7 3930k does 66.6 MH/s; a speed up by 50x would be 3.3 GH

I can imagine people using their machines at work to mine or mine at the library.

The biggest benefactor of the new instruction set will be the bot nets.

sad but true.

joris
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July 26, 2013, 09:34:35 AM
 #10468

ASICMiner products probably exceed 30% of the hashrate share already. But you have to realize this:

ASICMiner valuation = (ASICMiner hashrate share + ASICMiner customer hashrate share) * mining share of bitcoin valuation * bitcoin valuation

I highly doubt all mining makes up 30% of Bitcoin's industry, let alone a part of mining.

I highly doubt money supply = GDP.

They have different units, so I fail to see how they can even be compared.

What I'm comparing is money supply to stock supply. If ASICMiner is valued at greater than all BTC combined is valued, then it follows that ASICMiner must have revenues separate from Bitcoin. This is not true, so ASICMiner stock will be capped.

Perceived value can't be capped. One share can change hands for price X, ten shares for price Y and all shares for price Z. X probably ain't Z.

The valuation formula doesn't make sense to me. "Bitcoin valuation" seems strange for "ASICMiner valuation", in BTC at least. It's should be only about cashflow. Let's say 33% of hashrate ~ 1200 BTC per day + BTC from hardware sales (at any price) is the cash coming in. After cash expenses, the net cash flow is worth something to retain or acquire, the price of which to be determined by the irrational brains of current and future shareholders. No absolute reasons in there to "have revenues separate from Bitcoin".

How to pay? With debt, gold, property or whatever. No restriction to the amount of BTC in the economy.

Of course not only cashflow influences the perceived value, but also their current control of the mining sector. They seem to be able to choose between selling their hardware or using it themselves. If f.e. 100th comes online, it wouldn't surprise me if ASICMINER turns on 45 TH overnight to keep up their share. While if hashrate from other sources grows to slow, ASICMINER goes helicopter Ben with well-priced hardware.

Cashflow in from mining is more or less constant, cash out for mining increases with difficulty, while hardware will be the other way around. Less cash in with constant costsfor manufacturing. It will take a while, but the extreme profitability of ASICMINER will come to an end when margins become 'normal'. But I don't dare to say anything about the share price that the market will see fit for these stages.

;-)
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July 26, 2013, 11:40:27 AM
 #10469

I wonder if the Intel CPU SHA extensions will have any effect on ASIC mining ?

On chip SHA2 extensions in the Intel CPU : http://software.intel.com/en-us/articles/intel-sha-extensions

Could be big news

Could be. It's not clear from the whitepaper what specific architecture changes Intel are making to accommodate these instructions (i.e., it might be just a single hashing core).

Having said that I cannot believe that there aren't a few skunkworks ASIC chip designs floating around in Intel at the moment, given the number of chip designers they have.

How much did AES-NI speeds things up?  I suppose we maybe looking at similar factor.  Even with a speed up of 25-50x, CPU is still no match to ASIC.

Yeah, I don't think we need to panic just yet. It's more likely to be used as a speedup for things like SSL which have to be decrypted in the CPU at the moment. Given that Intel is a conservative company with long lead times, it could be 12 months before you can even get your hands on hardware with these instructions, and even then it wouldn't be much chop as a miner. But it's still pretty cool.




Exactly...not sure why people are even wasting brain cycles thinking about this.

Intel isn't interested in developing a mining chip or even to do more than a few hashes per second. It would be entirely dedicated to security applications for web commerce, website security etc.


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July 26, 2013, 01:23:57 PM
 #10470

how can i be a part of those shares?

If you need help with anything, please let me know. I'd be happy to assist.
binaryFate
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July 26, 2013, 01:34:23 PM
 #10471

how can i be a part of those shares?

You can buy direct shares from time to time, on auctions on this forum.

But the easiest is to buy shares on exchanges:
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
There are two others exchanges too, you can google "havelock investment" and "bitfunder". Price on average is roughly similar everywhere.


Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
candoo
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July 26, 2013, 01:36:36 PM
 #10472

how can i be a part of those shares?

just buy some fuckin shares

Einer trage des andern Last, so werdet ihr das Gesetz Christi erfüllen.
ThickAsThieves
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July 26, 2013, 01:37:05 PM
 #10473

how can i be a part of those shares?

You can buy direct shares from time to time, on auctions on this forum.

But the easiest is to buy shares on exchanges:
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
There are two others exchanges too, you can google "havelock investment" and "bitfunder". Price on average is roughly similar everywhere.



The other links are:

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/order.php?symbol=AM1
https://www.havelockinvestments.com/order.php?symbol=AM100

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT
https://bitfunder.com/asset/TAT.ASICMINER

https://btct.co/security/TAT.ASICMINER
VeeMiner
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July 26, 2013, 01:58:59 PM
 #10474

how can i be a part of those shares?

just buy some fuckin shares

+9000 internets to you, you sir are a scholar and a gentleman
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July 26, 2013, 02:44:00 PM
 #10475

I received tracking info for all my Batch 3 orders this morning.

At least 48Th is coming online from Avalon Batch 3 in the next 7-14 days. (48Th not counting 4 module versions.)

This will add at least a %20 increase to the current difficulty. Add in 4 module versions and BFL, a possible network increase of %35 in the next 7-14 days. (this is a guess)
rudrigorc2
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July 26, 2013, 05:47:23 PM
 #10476

I received tracking info for all my Batch 3 orders this morning.

At least 48Th is coming online from Avalon Batch 3 in the next 7-14 days. (48Th not counting 4 module versions.)

This will add at least a %20 increase to the current difficulty. Add in 4 module versions and BFL, a possible network increase of %35 in the next 7-14 days. (this is a guess)


err.. that 20% diff increase just happened, now they must be turning them off and shipping. I say well see less than 10% increase next adjustment
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July 26, 2013, 05:49:54 PM
 #10477

I received tracking info for all my Batch 3 orders this morning.

At least 48Th is coming online from Avalon Batch 3 in the next 7-14 days. (48Th not counting 4 module versions.)

This will add at least a %20 increase to the current difficulty. Add in 4 module versions and BFL, a possible network increase of %35 in the next 7-14 days. (this is a guess)


err.. that 20% diff increase just happened, now they must be turning them off and shipping. I say well see less than 10% increase next adjustment

I don't think they mine with the chips; I believe they're incompetent rather than malicious. Consequently, they'll be another 20% diff increase. This pattern will continue for a few months.
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July 26, 2013, 06:16:19 PM
 #10478

actually just did some math, Core i7 3930k does 66.6 MH/s;
You can get ~80MH/s out of an Intel iN series CPU - I've got an old one sitting in a DC which is averaging 78MH/s, uptime is several months, and it was just sitting there waiting for us to scrap  ...

www.astutium.com - domains | hosting | vps | servers | cloud - proud to accept bitcoins. UK colocation for BFL and KNC ASICs in Tier3+ DC
Register Domains with BTC
Want to make some bitcoins ? Miner on ebay | Buy GH/s
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July 26, 2013, 06:33:34 PM
 #10479

actually just did some math, Core i7 3930k does 66.6 MH/s;
You can get ~80MH/s out of an Intel iN series CPU - I've got an old one sitting in a DC which is averaging 78MH/s, uptime is several months, and it was just sitting there waiting for us to scrap  ...

Generating 1 satoshi at a time. Wink Now you just need to invent cryosleep and wait for about a decade or so - you'll wake up a bitcoinaire.

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July 26, 2013, 06:55:40 PM
 #10480

haha, I love the picture in this listing of AM product:

http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?spm=2013.1.w4018-2539601020.3.0PwXb8&scm=1007.168.0.0&id=19288654424&ad_id=&am_id=&cm_id=&pm_id=

btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
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