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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914570 times)
Vycid
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August 12, 2013, 02:53:52 AM
 #11001


 And the ability to deliver, of course - but that is easy to demonstrate if you've got the hardware.


And my point is no, its not.


Edit: I'm not saying that a worthy competitor won't emerge. Maybe one will and maybe it will be Cointerra. They state that they will be shipping chips before the end of the year. I'll make a prediction that before that happens, AM posts record dividends and the price rises beyond 5.2 BTC.

Perhaps, though it's hard to see where the record dividends will come from as hardware prices crash and AM's share of the hashrate shrinks (http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/).

Remember, also: markets are forward-looking.

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August 12, 2013, 03:02:52 AM
 #11002


Perhaps, though it's hard to see where the record dividends will come from as hardware prices crash and AM's share of the hashrate shrinks (http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/).

Remember, also: markets are forward-looking.

From volume. AM products now have 60-90 day ROI, instead of 6-9 month ROI. They have literally fallen 90% in price and are still very profitable to manufacture. This ROI timeline exists despite the recent massive difficulty increases of the last 2 months.

More importantly, because they ship, they are now literally the only game in town and will be for at least the next 2 months. Blades bring in much higher dividends than USB devices, and AM has maintained high dividends despite not selling blades for the last month.

TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.
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August 12, 2013, 03:17:37 AM
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Perhaps, though it's hard to see where the record dividends will come from as hardware prices crash and AM's share of the hashrate shrinks (http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/).

Remember, also: markets are forward-looking.

From volume. AM products now have 60-90 day ROI, instead of 6-9 month ROI. They have literally fallen 90% in price and are still very profitable to manufacture. This ROI timeline exists despite the recent massive difficulty increases of the last 2 months.

More importantly, because they ship, they are now literally the only game in town and will be for at least the next 2 months. Blades bring in much higher dividends than USB devices, and AM has maintained high dividends despite not selling blades for the last month.

TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.

Only an idiot would believe that ROI. You're racing an exponential curve. These sales will last a few weeks, at most, and FC would be foolish to push all of the proceeds out the door at once, since the following weeks would look horribly anemic and crash the stock.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Good calculator that factors in exponential growth (use expert mode): http://www.coinish.com/calc/

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August 12, 2013, 04:06:48 AM
 #11004

The real reason that neither AMD or Intel has made a move is that they're both uncertain of the legality of Bitcoin mining, and the tax implications. Even $100M isn't worth taking a legal risk. That's all there is to it.

Not working at either of those co's, I'd vote that that's false. The biggest reason they're ignoring it is theyre not familiar with it. A) They'ed hate to invest a ton of money into a project and find out that interst in BTC evaporated, leaving them with a ton of product with no other conceivable use. B) It really is just a drop in the bucket for Intel. AMD, though might be more inclined. They were beneficiaries of the Bitcoin craze, and probably sold tons more GPU's than they otherwise would have, and are now seeing those sales dry up. Not only that, they're seeing a huge second hand market developing which'll lower demand for their cards. So they might sit up and take notice.

But the legalities are of no concern. They'ed simply be selling sha hashing chips, what the customer does with them is their business. They're not dealing in the currency or anything else where there'd even be a question of about legality. The last issue would be whether they think they can be price competitive with everyone else out there. Remember, AMD has been hemoragging money. Their shareholders will make heads roll if they spend fifty million on a new chip line, only to see nothing happen and the losses deepen.

Lots of dynamics at play. Nothing that I can imagine that intersects with Bitcoins legality.
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August 12, 2013, 06:32:28 AM
 #11005

In case not already posted - near term competition just got smaller.

BTCGarden IPO cancelled, 32000 BTC about to hit the market, expect a chunk of this to land in AM, although possibly offset by jitters around the sustainability of mining ops within the Chinese political environment.

Note - they are down but may not be out, they self funded their initial hardware order and may still get some of it online, the IPO money was primarily for Gen 2 chip investment.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=264696.0;topicseen
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August 12, 2013, 06:41:14 AM
 #11006

First Avalon and then BTCGarden.
Relevant Sources
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=264696.msg2914929#msg2914929
http://www.avalon-asics.com/

I know its not the time to pose shareholder questions but I want to ask how is Friedcats security in China pertaining to threats and extortion.

Formats to a proper question
In regards to the recent extortion threats launched against Avalon and BTCgarden in China, what steps has Friedcat taken to protect the security of his team and operations in China.
AMuppInTime
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August 12, 2013, 06:55:21 AM
 #11007

First Avalon and then BTCGarden.
Relevant Sources
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=264696.msg2914929#msg2914929
http://www.avalon-asics.com/

I know its not the time to pose shareholder questions but I want to ask how is Friedcats security in China pertaining to threats and extortion.

Formats to a proper question
In regards to the recent extortion threats launched against Avalon and BTCgarden in China, what steps has Friedcat taken to protect the security of his team and operations in China.

+1
runeks
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August 12, 2013, 07:38:28 AM
 #11008

USB sticks sales have been more lucrative than blades in the past. Let's just hope for a regular good dividend!
Do you have a source for this? I'm not saying you're wrong, I just had the impression it was the other way around, so I'd really like to see some figures if they exist.

I remember the legendary blade auction that yielded $1M in 36 hours: http://thegenesisblock.com/the-worlds-first-1-million-bitcoin-mining-auction/

This is a ludicrous sentiment. Mining revenues are about $100M a year. AMD's yearly revenue, across all products, is only a little north of a billion. It would definitely be on their radar, since they could grab almost the whole market with little investment. By the way: companies don't ignore sectors just because they're only ~10% of their revenue. If that was true, GE and HP would never release new products. But we see them buying up little companies and launching products all the time.

However, the proposition is even BETTER for Intel, who, unlike AMD, already owns the fabs needed to crank out some chips and keep the cost of dominating mining extremely low (AMD has to contract out, so they've got an economy of scale issue that Intel doesn't).

The real reason that neither AMD or Intel has made a move is that they're both uncertain of the legality of Bitcoin mining, and the tax implications. Even $100M isn't worth taking a legal risk. That's all there is to it.
No. AMD's yearly revenue is around $5.4 billion: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAMD&fstype=ii&ei=MI4IUtjNIuT5wAPxAg

Also, how do you estimate the mining market to be $100M annually? I mentioned the $1M USD auction above. I don't think that there has been sold for more than $50M this year, probably less. And if AMD were to enter they surely wouldn't get 100% market share, they'd be competing with other companies - for $50M in revenue.

So that means they'd be able to increase their revenue from $5,422M to - at most - $5,472M. A whopping 0.9%!
TsuyokuNaritai
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August 12, 2013, 09:26:24 AM
 #11009

First Avalon and then BTCGarden.
Relevant Sources
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=264696.msg2914929#msg2914929
http://www.avalon-asics.com/

I know its not the time to pose shareholder questions but I want to ask how is Friedcats security in China pertaining to threats and extortion.

Formats to a proper question
In regards to the recent extortion threats launched against Avalon and BTCgarden in China, what steps has Friedcat taken to protect the security of his team and operations in China.

+1

It's vital that serious security measures are in place, but for various reasons it would be a bad idea for Friedcat to make public exactly what they are.

runeks
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August 12, 2013, 09:27:39 AM
 #11010

Very interesting!

I guess it makes sense since the Blades were out of stock for a while. And it seems like the USB miners really were the perfect plug-and-play solution for many geeks.
velacreations
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August 12, 2013, 02:54:23 PM
 #11011

In regards to the recent extortion threats launched against Avalon and BTCgarden in China, what steps has Friedcat taken to protect the security of his team and operations in China.
FC has enough money to bribe his own govt people to make extortionists disappear.

VolanicEruptor
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August 12, 2013, 03:09:25 PM
 #11012

And really overpriced.
So the past may not predict the future.

eventually the blades will be the new USBs, especially once they hit the $200 value..
overpriced can be a good thing when you're on the selling side

romerun
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August 12, 2013, 05:57:59 PM
 #11013

sounds like there's a good amount of Mafia in China. I bet friedcat already has a few bodyguard surrounding him.
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August 12, 2013, 06:20:24 PM
 #11014

sounds like there's a good amount of Mafia in China. I bet friedcat already has a few bodyguard surrounding him.

Corruption follows money as day follows night. All organizations suffer from this, the ones that survive are those best able to produce in their particular environment. In the USA, you have to buy politicians and regulators. In China, you have to grease different palms. But grease money must always be paid, or you will suffer from the grease money paid by your competitors. It is how business has always been done, and always will be done. To believe otherwise is to have have the luxury of never having been in business.
Boelens
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August 12, 2013, 06:26:11 PM
 #11015

Hey! There's a contest where you could predict the price of the next dividend payout, but when is the next dividend payout? The contest just ended.
velacreations
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August 12, 2013, 06:35:33 PM
 #11016

Hey! There's a contest where you could predict the price of the next dividend payout, but when is the next dividend payout? The contest just ended.

Next div is on Weds.  Where is this contest?

JimiQ84
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August 12, 2013, 06:38:05 PM
 #11017

Hey! There's a contest where you could predict the price of the next dividend payout, but when is the next dividend payout? The contest just ended.

Next div is on Weds.  Where is this contest?

asicminer.info forum
lophie
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August 12, 2013, 06:40:35 PM
 #11018

Hey! There's a contest where you could predict the price of the next dividend payout, but when is the next dividend payout? The contest just ended.

Well the dividend "price" is 0, But the "amount" is predicted to be about 0.0385BTC per share.

Furthermore, people here are not interested in contests without BTC prizes  Grin

Will take me a while to climb up again, But where is a will, there is a way...
velacreations
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August 12, 2013, 06:47:41 PM
 #11019

Hey! There's a contest where you could predict the price of the next dividend payout, but when is the next dividend payout? The contest just ended.

Well the dividend "price" is 0, But the "amount" is predicted to be about 0.0385BTC per share.

Furthermore, people here are not interested in contests without BTC prizes  Grin

Is that just your prediction or does it come from wallet addresses/etc?

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August 12, 2013, 07:34:15 PM
 #11020

http://asicminercharts.com/live/ shows the dividend prediction of about 0.01286 based on the hashing. I am predicting about 5000 BTC worth of sales (probably more, but I am just going by the 3 major group buy wallets here). That's another 0.0125, so ~0.025 at the least dividend this week

Now lets get those blade sales going people! Ignore the rising difficulty ;-)
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