ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[SebastianJu]

When i look at the market... Asicminer is at 0.64BTC and ActiveMining at 0.0008BTC. They both work on 28nm process node if im not mistaken. Both have shown in the past that they can do IPO's though friedcat is the only one that has shown he can bring out ASIC's. Asicminer has 400,000 shares while ActiveMining has 10,000,000 shares. Thats 25 times more. So ActiveMinings Price compared would be 0.02BTC to get the same percent of the company like one asicminer share has. Both have relatively good chances to succeed but only the divs keep asicminer's share price high.

Let's not forget that there are ~ 400K AM shares vs ~ 10M ActM shares. Assuming they ever reach the same market cap it would be 0.64 BTC/share for AM vs 0.0256 BTC/share for ActM.
[/quote]

I included it. ActiveMining is at 0.0008b and has 25 more shares in total than Asicminer. So in order to have the same percent of Activemining you would have with one asicminer share you would need to spend 0.02BTC in ActiveMining now.

Im really unsure if i should hold any of my shares now. Asicminer may drop to even half of its value until friedcat at least is announcing good news or good things happen. ActiveMining only will bring out good news in weeks. And labcoin... seems to be a scam where i lost anyway. Keeping the shares as a gamble is the best thing now.

It certainly seems to me like nothing you can buy right now can make ROI when measured in BTC, in which case the logical buyer should just buy BTC instead.

True.

[1714895304]

1714895304

[1714895304]

1714895304

[superduh]

25,000,000 Act Mining shares, 10 mil are the public ones

[SmiGueL]

ASICMINER shows a considerable dividends in Oct. 27, why the stock exchange market(like bitfunder, havelockinvestments) does not pay the dividends. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=0

That dividend is incorrect.  The last dividend was on Oct 23 and was 0.00374772 BTC/share.

What you are looking at is likely the sum of all dividends paid previously.

That's exactly what it is. If you click on the cell it shows that it is the sum of the entire column [=SUM(L1:L986)]

Why they pay the dividends on Sunday instead of Wednesday.

They didn't, it's just the bottom of that column happens to line up with row Oct. 27. It means nothing but the sum of the dividends column.

Ooops, I probably forgot to delete that Sum() function after checking tot total amount of received coins.
Thanks for mentioning.

Please send me a PM next time for a quick fix.

[SebastianJu]

25,000,000 Act Mining shares, 10 mil are the public ones

Right... didnt notice that... thats a hefty share for the issuer. 3/5 for the issuer and all the money from the shareholders only means 2/5.

[hamiltino]

What part of:

"There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?

Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October."

Don't people understand?

[stripykitteh]

I discovered http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator some time ago, the charts aren't bad either: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty.

I reckon their estimate for the next difficulty is too high (537 million, or 37.46% increase). I'm tipping a 27% increase, or ~495 million. The rate of finding blocks has stalled over the last couple of days so I don't see a bumper increase this time. Possibly this is due to most of KnC's first batch being delivered, and there being a temporary lull. It will only be for a short time, though (i.e., it won't be long enough to turn those unprofitable miners back to making ROI).

[BitAddict]

I discovered http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator some time ago, the charts aren't bad either: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty.

I reckon their estimate for the next difficulty is too high (537 million, or 37.46% increase). I'm tipping a 27% increase, or ~495 million. The rate of finding blocks has stalled over the last couple of days so I don't see a bumper increase this time. Possibly this is due to most of KnC's first batch being delivered, and there being a temporary lull. It will only be for a short time, though (i.e., it won't be long enough to turn those unprofitable miners back to making ROI).

I think their estimate is completely right. No doubt we will reach 537 for the next jump.
Do you want to bet?  

BTW, thanks for the info dexX7 I didn't know this website, and looks nice.

[Strange Vlad]

I'm tipping a 27% increase, or ~495 million.

For it to be as low as 27%, the green line needs to drop below 2.0% in the next couple of days.  I doubt that passionately.
(the picture below is being updated automatically)

[bitcoin.newsfeed]

What part of:

"There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?

Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October."

Don't people understand?

"Exponentially increased devices in September and October."

Ehm, where are they

[stripykitteh]

I discovered http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator some time ago, the charts aren't bad either: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty.

I reckon their estimate for the next difficulty is too high (537 million, or 37.46% increase). I'm tipping a 27% increase, or ~495 million. The rate of finding blocks has stalled over the last couple of days so I don't see a bumper increase this time. Possibly this is due to most of KnC's first batch being delivered, and there being a temporary lull. It will only be for a short time, though (i.e., it won't be long enough to turn those unprofitable miners back to making ROI).

I think their estimate is completely right. No doubt we will reach 537 for the next jump.
Do you want to bet?  

BTW, thanks for the info dexX7 I didn't know this website, and looks nice.

Small wager? 0.5 BTC What's your over and under?

[finlof]

What part of:

"There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?

Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October."

Don't people understand?

"Exponentially increased devices in September and October."

Ehm, where are they

being assembled as he stated above

[drawingthesun]

Difficulty of 1,000,000,000 will be complete with in the next 2-3 difficulty increases.

I personally think we will see a 50% increase this round and a 45% increase the round after.

[canth]

25,000,000 Act Mining shares, 10 mil are the public ones

True, although until the initial .0025 per share is paid back, only the 10mil are actively receiving dividends.

[canth]

I discovered http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator some time ago, the charts aren't bad either: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty.

I reckon their estimate for the next difficulty is too high (537 million, or 37.46% increase). I'm tipping a 27% increase, or ~495 million. The rate of finding blocks has stalled over the last couple of days so I don't see a bumper increase this time. Possibly this is due to most of KnC's first batch being delivered, and there being a temporary lull. It will only be for a short time, though (i.e., it won't be long enough to turn those unprofitable miners back to making ROI).

I think their estimate is completely right. No doubt we will reach 537 for the next jump.
Do you want to bet?  

BTW, thanks for the info dexX7 I didn't know this website, and looks nice.

Small wager? 0.5 BTC What's your over and under?

As an FYI, KNC has finally released a version of their firmware which includes cgminer improvements from ckolivas - https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-60. Most miners get a 2-3% bump from the software while a fair number of lesser performing units have increased 10-20%. My guess is this brings another 100T to the next diff change, on top of whatever is shipping.

[adara]

With the geometric increase in difficulty and ASICMiner not increasing its mining share even if friedcat where to pay full divs, they will be lower than what he has been paying even when withholding.
Mining performance for ASICMiner is a disaster. Hardware sales are inline and not growing. Don't expect repeat customers when they are fucked with ROI. If they lose money they will not buy again. Easy stuff. You can not grow a company by f***ng your customers.
Many hardware competitors with better pricing now and with instant or almost instant delivery including Avalon and Knc, plus others coming soon. The cat has really been fried now.
Hardware prices will decrease rapidly at this point and it will be harder and harder for ASICMiner to stay in any leadership position at all, it has already lost the train due to bad decisions at critical points. The cat is fried.

[BitThink]

Which bad decision?
Sell instead of mining? You already know that self mining is worse.
Sell price is too high? I don't think that's reasonable from an investors perspective. Even for the miner, who knew the difficulty will increase so fast then?
Failure in Gen2 chips? That's not a decision. It's an unfortunate result, but certainly not because he decided not to design Gen 2 at all.
Collect money for Gen 3? Without this, I believe the stock price will go to 0.

I personally lose more than 30BTC on AM, but I think it is my own fault in bad evaluation. Friedcat already returned more than 500% to IPO investors, I don't think he is responsible in pleasing us, who bought atoverpriced shares. The money we lost went to the sellers, not AM.

[Lohoris]

Don't expect repeat customers when they are fucked with ROI. If they lose money they will not buy again. Easy stuff.

Wrong.
The numbers were plain and simple, but those customers refused to do some math and blindly bought random stuff.
We're not talking about dvd players, mind, we're talking about "devices that create money", so there's really NO excuse not to do your math and see if it will be profitable.
This has two implications:
1. if they've lost money, it's entirely their own fault
2. since they are so brain-dead, they'll likely come back anyway, they might not even realise they have lost money (they didn't check before, likely they aren't checking now nor they will later)

[BitThink]

I don't think the miners are all stupid. They just had wrong prediction of the hash rate increase rate. Actually without bitfury, they could've had made even, or at least lose much less.

[adara]

Don't expect repeat customers when they are fucked with ROI. If they lose money they will not buy again. Easy stuff.

Wrong.
The numbers were plain and simple, but those customers refused to do some math and blindly bought random stuff.
We're not talking about dvd players, mind, we're talking about "devices that create money", so there's really NO excuse not to do your math and see if it will be profitable.
This has two implications:
1. if they've lost money, it's entirely their own fault
2. since they are so brain-dead, they'll likely come back anyway, they might not even realise they have lost money (they didn't check before, likely they aren't checking now nor they will later)

Not a good foundation for any business anyhow. To profit from other people mistakes. Don't you think? Anyway miners are getting smarter now.
With so many competitors about to deliver and with much better pricing, the market will likely establish a fair price for mining devices.
Being dependent on hardware sales for profit, like ASICMiner is at this point, is a very low margin business.
Do your math and you will see why divs will go lower and lower.

[adara]

Which bad decision?
Sell instead of mining? You already know that self mining is worse.
Sell price is too high? I don't think that's reasonable from an investors perspective. Even for the miner, who knew the difficulty will increase so fast then?
Failure in Gen2 chips? That's not a decision. It's an unfortunate result, but certainly not because he decided not to design Gen 2 at all.
Collect money for Gen 3? Without this, I believe the stock price will go to 0.

I personally lose more than 30BTC on AM, but I think it is my own fault in bad evaluation. Friedcat already returned more than 500% to IPO investors, I don't think he is responsible in pleasing us, who bought atoverpriced shares. The money we lost went to the sellers, not AM.

The main mistake is not maintaining the lead while you have it. It's a fatal mistake.