ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[hdbuck]

Finally, i found it quite unnecessary all this anger in response of your fair calculations. People tends to be even more passionate when it comes to their investment/money.

Here are a few reasons many might be annoyed with mabsark:

- repeatedly advertised labcoin causing many to lose large amounts of money

- Uses highly speculative calculations as "proof" and gets angry when someone gives him an equally speculative response.

- Won't shut the fuck up about his speculative calculations.

- As soon as his bullshit math is disproven, he returns with some new bullshit math to "prove" that asicminer will fail and ultimately waste our time.


It is fine and dandy to speculate but when 20+ people disagree with you and not a single person agrees, you should really take a hint.

I totally get it, and my calculations are quite different from his anyway (like taking into account the BTC/USD price), but i dont think he was 'scamming/fudding' around on purpose. It is likely that he also have lost a lot whilst investing in Labcoin and he may think twice before getting that much enthusiastic for any new cryptocurrency. Anyway, i think he is just some regular guy (no offense) making some calls and sharing his thoughs on the dedicated forum.

For me, the whole point of spending hours in reading all of you guys in here is to get different views and perspectives. So I would appreciate it even more (is that even possible?) without fighting parts thats all im saying  

Edit: people who blindly follow some stranger's advice kinda deserve what happen to them. But then again they shall learn from their mistakes and never do so again...

[jimmothy]

For me, the whole point of spending hours in reading all of you guys in here is to get different views and perspectives. So I would appreciate it even more without fighting parts thats all im saying  

Couldn't agree more. In my experience the only thing to come out of I tense debates is further understanding of the subject. Being proven wrong is one of my favorite/least favorite ways of learning. However with mabsark it is a different case. He has already shared his speculation in the speculation thread and many people there disagreed so he changed threads and started over spamming here. Debating about future difficulty is and always will be pointless without a magic crystal ball and should be left in mining speculation.

A better thing to debate would be how AM will stack up against the competition. And looking at the competition(or lack of) it seems to me that asicminer will have an easy time coming out on top if they can just deliver.

[Lloydie]

For me, the whole point of spending hours in reading all of you guys in here is to get different views and perspectives. So I would appreciate it even more without fighting parts thats all im saying  

Couldn't agree more. In my experience the only thing to come out of I tense debates is further understanding of the subject. Being proven wrong is one of my favorite/least favorite ways of learning. However with mabsark it is a different case. He has already shared his speculation in the speculation thread and many people there disagreed so he changed threads and started over spamming here. Debating about future difficulty is and always will be pointless without a magic crystal ball and should be left in mining speculation.

A better thing to debate would be how AM will stack up against the competition. And looking at the competition(or lack of) it seems to me that asicminer will have an easy time coming out on top if they can just deliver.

To my mind friedcat is a smart operator who is aiming for lowest power consumption per ghs. He doesn't care about heat and performance per chip because he has empty liquid cooled racks waiting in HK.

As he is a manufacturer, chip cost is irrelevant but most likely cheaper than 20nm and 28nm chips. He then makes a lot of chips and out hashes everyone based on power consumption alone. Then he prices retail chips for max retail profit margins, whatever the market will pay.

If gen 3 power consumption is less than say 0.5 watt per ghs, friedcat will kickass. From memory he is aiming for 0.2 watt per ghs. If he fails and hits 0.3 watt per ghs, he is still going to kickass.

[hdbuck]

For me, the whole point of spending hours in reading all of you guys in here is to get different views and perspectives. So I would appreciate it even more without fighting parts thats all im saying  

A better thing to debate would be how AM will stack up against the competition. And looking at the competition(or lack of) it seems to me that asicminer will have an easy time coming out on top if they can just deliver.

Yup, it appears that delivering is the key to success in this 'new industry'. But i think AM were the first to understand this back then when they were the first movers.  imho, for a company that want to be sustainable in such a fast moving environment it is most important to be honest/realistic when talking about delivering schedules. When looking at the competition i believe they had to move much faster than AM and without the time to consider a long term 'vision'. Plus, it is obvious that such strategy made them suffer from delays (for example, look at that butterfly labs who lost so much credit, if not all). I believe KNC are having a hard time delivering also actually?!

Anyhow, the thing is with AM that they are located in the world's most important city regarding chip designing/manufacturing and that is quite a real/solid advantage on which i am ready to stand for. I would go even further in saying that if they could not deliver in time, it should not be that important, as i believe that as a serious company, they've done their work on some worse case scenarios. They're here for the marathon.. not the sprint.

[freedomno1]

Not that I really mind either way but we did make the speculation thread for long conversations after arguing about the main thread being clogged up from these type of convos . That said I don't mind them now and then lot of different opinions help expand your viewpoint.

However looking back on labcoin Glad I sold after that weird IPO although I did enjoy those rapid rises and dips playing the sides we even had ponies in that thread at some point.
(Cough)
I found it interesting though that ActiveMiner and Labcoin took AM's volume on btct and now that they are both fairly inactive we are shifting back to AM, and the competition that rose up to increase the hash was not those two companies we thought would do so looking back at things.  

So blinded by Greed or Not really depends on if you tried Activeminer or labcoin while some sticked with AM  the result was that even though AM did drop in price significantly at least those shareholders still have a real company behind it and real hash.
(Then again looking on the other hand there was a lot to be made by speculators when those other two companies were still trading ^^)

[empoweoqwj]

Finally, i found it quite unnecessary all this anger in response of your fair calculations. People tends to be even more passionate when it comes to their investment/money.

Here are a few reasons many might be annoyed with mabsark:

- repeatedly advertised labcoin causing many to lose large amounts of money

- Uses highly speculative calculations as "proof" and gets angry when someone gives him an equally speculative response.

- Won't shut the fuck up about his speculative calculations.

- As soon as his bullshit math is disproven, he returns with some new bullshit math to "prove" that asicminer will fail and ultimately waste our time.


It is fine and dandy to speculate but when 20+ people disagree with you and not a single person agrees, you should really take a hint.

I totally get it, and my calculations are quite different from his anyway (like taking into account the BTC/USD price), but i dont think he was 'scamming/fudding' around on purpose. It is likely that he also have lost a lot whilst investing in Labcoin and he may think twice before getting that much enthusiastic for any new cryptocurrency. Anyway, i think he is just some regular guy (no offense) making some calls and sharing his thoughs on the dedicated forum.

For me, the whole point of spending hours in reading all of you guys in here is to get different views and perspectives. So I would appreciate it even more (is that even possible?) without fighting parts thats all im saying  

Edit: people who blindly follow some stranger's advice kinda deserve what happen to them. But then again they shall learn from their mistakes and never do so again...

All I can say  is I've been here for 6 months or so now and Mabsark is the only person on my ignore list. Make of that what you will.

I agree you should listen to all opinions, and make your own mind up

[empoweoqwj]

Not that I really mind either way but we did make the speculation thread for long conversations after arguing about the main thread being clogged up from these type of convos . That said I don't mind them now and then lot of different opinions help expand your viewpoint.

However looking back on labcoin Glad I sold after that weird IPO although I did enjoy those rapid rises and dips playing the sides we even had ponies in that thread at some point.
(Cough)
I found it interesting though that ActiveMiner and Labcoin took AM's volume on btct and now that they are both fairly inactive we are shifting back to AM, and the competition that rose up to increase the hash was not those two companies we thought would do so looking back at things.  

So blinded by Greed or Not really depends on if you tried Activeminer or labcoin while some sticked with AM  the result was that even though AM did drop in price significantly at least those shareholders still have a real company behind it and real hash.
(Then again looking on the other hand there was a lot to be made by speculators when those other two companies were still trading ^^)

I dabbled in Activeminer and honestly the stress wasn't worth it, losing some coins didn't help either

I followed Labcoin from a safer distance

Since then I've stopped looking at bitcoin mining start-ups. Its just not worth the rise in blood pressure. AM feels like "home".

[spartan82]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

[empoweoqwj]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

Yeah .... I though they would remain stable around 0.30 but I guess once a bit of buying started, the panic buying followed right after ...... let's see how it plays out now

[Mabsark]

- As soon as his bullshit math is disproven, he returns with some new bullshit math to "prove" that asicminer will fail and ultimately waste our time.

None of you disproved anything. None of you even tried. You just started calling me a troll and telling people to put me on their ignore list. What exactly was that meant to disprove?

Face it, my argument was blatantly obvious and your arguments were quite clearly ridiculous. Shareholders were simply too blinded by greed to see the truth of that at the time. You are making the same mistake all over again.

Like I said then, no one knows when.  You didn't know then, and you don't know now.  Saying a share price will fall isn't enough to make money.  It's the ability to know when it will fall.

Of course I knew that competition would arise. To think that competition would not arise was simply pure delusion. To think that the competition would not reduce AM's profits was simply bad maths.

Look at when you were saying AM was overvalued, the price and profits increased significantly after your prediction.  You were advising to not invest in AM when you could have doubled your money. You were off by several months, which meant significant profits earned by a lot of us during that time frame. 

I wasn't off by months at all. I said AM wasn't worth the asking price and that by the end of year, you would realise that. So what if the price temporarily increased and you could have made money speculating? That's completely irrelevant. I'm talking about what the shares were worth. Are you claiming that AM was actually worth 5 BTC per share? AM has paid out around 0.6 BTC per share in divs and that was with it's massive network share and sales monopoly. Such profits will not be seen again. Anyone who bought at 5 BTC, clearly got ripped off.

Anyone can go and check those comments for themselves and they'll see how intellectually dishonest you are being. By refusing to admit you were wrong, you just make yourself look silly.

[velacreations]

None of you disproved anything. None of you even tried.

No one needs to.  Time does it for us.

So what if the price temporarily increased and you could have made money speculating? That's completely irrelevant. I'm talking about what the shares were worth.

after your comments, shares price nearly doubled.  call it speculative investing, but doubling your value is still doubling your value.  And you were recommending people to sell.  It was several months after your comments that values dropped back to the level they were when you made those comments.  That was a lot of missed profits.

By refusing to admit you were wrong, you just make yourself look silly.

acting like you were right when you missed one of the greatest stock rises in BTC history makes you look silly.  Insisting that your math makes you right when it has been wrong at least 3 major times this year makes you look silly, too.

[Lohoris]

Could you just stop feeding the trolls, please?

Thank you.

[empoweoqwj]

Could you just stop feeding the trolls, please?

Thank you.

Agreed. I've got the troll on ignore but I still get to read his nonsense. Not funny.

[BitThink]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

Yeah .... I though they would remain stable around 0.30 but I guess once a bit of buying started, the panic buying followed right after ...... let's see how it plays out now

I think some people just try to pump and dump, taking advantage of the out-coming tape-out. Even the tape-out is successful (most likely someone has already got some insider news about the progress), the current price is still way over-priced in my opinion.

[chriswilmer]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

Yeah .... I though they would remain stable around 0.30 but I guess once a bit of buying started, the panic buying followed right after ...... let's see how it plays out now

I think some people just try to pump and dump, taking advantage of the out-coming tape-out. Even the tape-out is successful (most likely someone has already got some insider news about the progress), the current price is still way over-priced in my opinion.

No it isn't. The value of a stock is based on all future dividends, discounted by risk and some penalty for future returns being worth less than money today.

What is going on in the next two months for asicminer is totally irrelevant.

[Mabsark]

No it isn't. The value of a stock is based on all future dividends, discounted by risk and some penalty for future returns being worth less than money today.

What is going on in the next two months for asicminer is totally irrelevant.

AM has paid out about 0.6 BTC in divs and that was basically without competition for most of the time. This time around is not going to be as profitable.

So, show us the maths which leads you to think that AM is not currently overpriced.

[empoweoqwj]

Just a reminder, there is an ASICMINER speculation thread specifically for all the share price chat stuff .....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0

Then we don't have to listen here to people bickering about whether shares are over-valued

[BitThink]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

Yeah .... I though they would remain stable around 0.30 but I guess once a bit of buying started, the panic buying followed right after ...... let's see how it plays out now

I think some people just try to pump and dump, taking advantage of the out-coming tape-out. Even the tape-out is successful (most likely someone has already got some insider news about the progress), the current price is still way over-priced in my opinion.

No it isn't. The value of a stock is based on all future dividends, discounted by risk and some penalty for future returns being worth less than money today.

What is going on in the next two months for asicminer is totally irrelevant.

I agree with you way to calculate the value of the stock, but I don't think AM has any chance to generate dividends of 0.6 BTC in the future. Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future. Considering there're only 9M bitcois left, it means AM has to get more than 2.6% of the rest BTC. As a mining dominated company, that almost means AM has to keep 2.6% of the network hashing rate all the time (costs have been completely ignored here), not matter how fast the whole network hashing rate increases.

You may say, there're other revenue besides the mining/selling chips/franchising, such as immerse cooling. Those revenues, however, are in fiats and considering the appreciation of BTC in the future, revenue in fiats can be safely ignored in my opinion.

Finally, even AM achieves the objective, what's the point to spend 0.6 BTC and wait for the 0.6 BTC be returned in dividend in the following years?

[BitThink]

Just a reminder, there is an ASICMINER speculation thread specifically for all the share price chat stuff .....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0

Then we don't have to listen here to people bickering about whether shares are over-valued

Speculation is about the price of the stock, and we are talking about the value of this stock. That's completely different.

For example, by speculation, now may be a good chance to buy AM shares cause someone may keep pumping the price until the tape-out result is out and you could earn considerable BTC by join the pump and dump. When we consider the value of the AM share, however, the current price is already above its value in my opinion and we should not consider it a good investment any more.

[jimmothy]

Just a reminder, there is an ASICMINER speculation thread specifically for all the share price chat stuff .....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0

Then we don't have to listen here to people bickering about whether shares are over-valued

Speculation is about the price of the stock, and we are talking about the value of this stock. That's completely different.

For example, by speculation, now may be a good chance to buy AM shares cause someone may keep pumping the price until the tape-out result is out and you could earn considerable BTC by join the pump and dump. When we consider the value of the AM share, however, the current price is already above its value in my opinion and we should not consider it a good investment any more.

Thanks for your opinion.

I find it easy to believe am will be able to pump out another 0.6 or more in dividends in the future.