ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Lloydie]

Would anyone like to provide a guesstimate of AM's percentage of total market hashrate with gen3 chips @ 0.5w/ghs over the next 12 months?  thanks.

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[aahzmundus]

I imagine our hashrate will be low... far lower then the 10% target of old.  Once we see how fast raw chips fly off the shelves at a good profit, why do anything else?  If the rumors of the first batch being sold out are true... I am expecting big lump payments of dividends instead of waiting for months while boards burn electricity.  I see no reason to adopt a plan that makes us wait for our money while taking on additional risk.

[necro_nemesis]

What gen would have been dropped into Allied Controls immersion facility?

[shawshankinmate37927]

What gen would have been dropped into Allied Controls immersion facility?

Gen1 chips.  That's all that AM has produced up to now. Gen2 was skipped.

[Lloydie]

Would anyone like to provide a guesstimate of AM's percentage of total market hashrate with gen3 chips @ 0.5w/ghs over the next 12 months?  thanks.

Ok modify the above query to: what percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?

[jimmothy]

Would anyone like to provide a guesstimate of AM's percentage of total market hashrate with gen3 chips @ 0.5w/ghs over the next 12 months?  thanks.

Ok modify the above query to: what percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?

25-75%

Assuming chips meet estimated specs. Competition will not be able to compete with the price and efficiency.

As of now I think knc will be the biggest competitor. Bitfury and bitmain next gen are looking a bit lacking.

[aahzmundus]

Nearly every other ASIC manufacturer has a horrible track record.  KNC is mostly positive but they are branching out and offering wallet software and is now working with newspapers in Chicago.  Asicminer is lean, focused, and has a proven track record.  We are in for good times.

[Lloydie]

Has anyone done ROI calcs on chip selling at current price versus outright mining?

[jimmothy]

Has anyone done ROI calcs on chip selling at current price versus outright mining?

Yes, that person would be friedcat.

[Chris_Sabian]

KnC has taped-out their new chips:  https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78

I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months.  The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.

[Lloydie]

KnC neptune at around 1.46 w/ghs. Quite far off.

[ning]

KnCMiner Power Consumption:

        0.7 / (1-30%) * (1-43%) = 0.57 J/GHash [1][2] (And this is at the lower end)

ASICMiner Power Consumption:

        0.2J/GHash low voltage, 0.35J/GHash rated voltage [3]

So, ASICMiner chips should have a huge edge over power consumption. However, we still don't know which company can manage to massively deliver their miners earlier.

[1] https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78
[2] http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-pre-orders-next-asic/
[3] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=438359.msg4816701#msg4816701

[chriswilmer]

I'm dying of suspense here.

[rudi]

I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months.  The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.

Which 3-4% increase "right now"?
See the last two plots here http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
The daily growth rate has been steadily falling since November last year. It really looks like the explosion in network difficulty is seriously slowing down.
Not so long ago we were speculating the total network hashrate could quickly reach 1000PH/s. Now we're at 30PH/s and even 100PH/s seem far off.

Friedcat indicated in the "Chinese girl interview" that he would deploy/sell at least a few hundred PH/s.

So: What percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?
More than 50% does not seem unreasonable.

[Lloydie]

I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months.  The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.

Which 3-4% increase "right now"?
See the last two plots here http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
The daily growth rate has been steadily falling since November last year. It really looks like the explosion in network difficulty is seriously slowing down.
Not so long ago we were speculating the total network hashrate could quickly reach 1000PH/s. Now we're at 30PH/s and even 100PH/s seem far off.

Friedcat indicated in the "Chinese girl interview" that he would deploy/sell at least a few hundred PH/s.

So: What percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?
More than 50% does not seem unreasonable.

Assuming selling chip ROI >= mining ROI (else FC should't be selling chips) then 50% of total hashrate = 650,000 coins = more than 1 Btc per share

[Lohoris]

You'll also recall that I always stated that pricing AM100 at 95% of AM1 was a poor method.

While you have proven to be a good manager and never stole anything so far AFAIK, which is something I praise, I fail to see how can you honestly repeat this nonsense.

AM100 pays 5% less than AM1, its price should be 5% less than AM1.
Simple math.
Denying math will get you nowhere.

AM1 other pro is that it can be converted to direct shares, while AM100 cannot.
AM100 only pro is that since it's a smaller denomination, you can buy it with leftover change. But holding more than 100 of them makes no sense in any situation.

[minerpumpkin]

I keep on wondering how many shares all our 'new' friends around here managed to acquire. The shares have been, and still are, rather cheap right now. BUT, the BTC price rose quite a bit 4 months ago and now it's a lot more expensive to buy shares at about 400$. This is even almost more expensive than when AM was over 4 BTC and BTC at about 100$. Of course, people buying at IPO prices only paid 1-2$.
Keep in mind, I don't want to do the old "let's price everything in US-$", I rather lay out, why it is more difficult acquiring AM shares in respect of the FIAT you have to invest.

[nycgoat]

You'll also recall that I always stated that pricing AM100 at 95% of AM1 was a poor method.

While you have proven to be a good manager and never stole anything so far AFAIK, which is something I praise, I fail to see how can you honestly repeat this nonsense.

AM100 pays 5% less than AM1, its price should be 5% less than AM1.
Simple math.
Denying math will get you nowhere.

AM1 other pro is that it can be converted to direct shares, while AM100 cannot.
AM100 only pro is that since it's a smaller denomination, you can buy it with leftover change. But holding more than 100 of them makes no sense in any situation.

AM100 makes more sense if you are looking to trade the shares IMO.  We have basically seen share price track the dividend since inception, the AM100 shares have offered a great trading vehicle.

[necro_nemesis]

IMHO AM100 is the better asset due to liquidity regardless of the trival 5%. There aren't preferred shares and there are no additional rights to the AM1 shares other than the privelage of sitting in on the board to get first hand knowledge should you be one of the select high percentage owners.

Liquidity is why stock are split. It's to allow movement of shares without drastically affecting the price of the asset.

Unless your thinking this is going to be the next Birkshire Hathaway ala Buffet to buy and hold for ever IMHO the benefit is trading in the fractional shares.

[elmwar]

There are only 3,205 (full share) units of AM100 while AM1 has 19,679.
This should be taken into account when determining liquidity.
You may not be able to buy or sell the same value of AM100 when you want.